EU's Juncker tells Britain: no-deal Brexit will hurt you the most

[bannork]

7 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Percentage is irrelevant. This is measured in trade balance.

UK:s trade deficit with the EU is -£64 billion. Which part of this is it that you fail to comprehend?

Percentage is completely relevant! The major financial powers in Europe , France and Germany will suffer far less than the UK in a no deal Brexit in terms of exports.

  44% of all UK exports went to the EU in 2017, while 53% of all UK imports came from the EU. As a bloc, EU countries sold more to the UK than vice-versa.

But Germany, for example, has only 6.6% of goods exports going to the UK, accounting for 2.6% of GDP. The latter figure is slightly above the EU average.

For France, the equivalent figures are 6.7% of exports and 1.4% of GDP, the latter comfortably below the average for the EU as a whole.

The individual countries of the EU will suffer far less than the UK in a no trade deal.

 

[sammieuk1]

Anyone thought just how much this has cost so far to get us to this point I have no idea but billions I suspect Boris is busy pledging billions more with a couple big ones on police and prisons probably on the expectation that civil unrest may well follow when the mugs find out that they will be paying for it as it all go's aspirational tits up and the rich say "oh dear" from their yachts in Monaco ????

[Forethat]

47 minutes ago, bannork said:

As a bloc, EU countries sold more to the UK than vice-versa.

Yup, that's my whole point! Seriously, if you don't even understand what a trade deficit is, PLEASE don't try to debate the subject.

 

Remainers...  

[Loiner]

Eire is fine within the Eu. After all they have fully supported the govt of Eire’s concerns over brexit and it’s impact on the Good Friday Agreement. 

Ireland will quickly forget the EU when it’s screwed for protecting the EU’s CU and SM border with the UK. The EU didn’t even bail out Ireland when needed. How much did UK cough up?
GFA - no impact and not even a problem.

[CNXexpat]

A very good video, packed with neutral information, about what can happen when a no-deal Brexit will come.

 

[bannork]

38 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Yup, that's my whole point! Seriously, if you don't even understand what a trade deficit is, PLEASE don't try to debate the subject.

 

Remainers...  

13% of UK exports go to the EU whilst it's only 4% vice versa so a no deal with tariffs is going to hit the UK economy far more than any individual EU country.

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 hours ago, Forethat said:

Next time you’re accusing people of hypocrisy, check the topic of the debate. 

The topic is who will be hit most by Brexit, not by what rules the EU appoints its leaders. But if that’s what you wanna discuss, better fix your own system first, or be prepared being called out for being a hypocrite. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 hours ago, Forethat said:

Percentage is irrelevant. This is measured in trade balance.

UK:s trade deficit with the EU is -£64 billion. Which part of this is it that you fail to comprehend?

The topic is who will be most hurt by a no deal Brexit. If you come up with the UK’s trade deficit with the EU I’m afraid the only one who fails to comprehend is you. 

[CNXexpat]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

Percentage is completely relevant! The major financial powers in Europe , France and Germany will suffer far less than the UK in a no deal Brexit in terms of exports.

  44% of all UK exports went to the EU in 2017, while 53% of all UK imports came from the EU. As a bloc, EU countries sold more to the UK than vice-versa.

But Germany, for example, has only 6.6% of goods exports going to the UK, accounting for 2.6% of GDP. The latter figure is slightly above the EU average.

For France, the equivalent figures are 6.7% of exports and 1.4% of GDP, the latter comfortably below the average for the EU as a whole.

The individual countries of the EU will suffer far less than the UK in a no trade deal.

 

True. And there is not so much what the EU really need from the UK, especially if the car makers will leave the UK, but the Brits need a lot from the EU. By example the people still need cars.

[candide]

2 hours ago, candide said:

Actually, rather than % of exports or trade balance, the most relevant indicator would be the lost % of GDP.

The £274 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth 13.4% of the value of the British economy in 2017. And around 8% of GDP.

 

Losing a significant share of it will clearly have a strong impact on GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, default rate, etc

 

Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2016. It's around 2.3% of GDP.

 

The impact will be obviously less acute.

 

[Loiner]

True. And there is not so much what the EU really need from the UK, especially if the car makers will leave the UK, but the Brits need a lot from the EU. By example the people still need cars.

But we don’t NEED cars to come from the EU. When they become more expensive, and other countries cheaper, many of them won’t.

[CNXexpat]

2 minutes ago, Loiner said:

But we don’t NEED cars to come from the EU. When they become more expensive, and other countries cheaper, many of them won’t.

Do you have trade deals with which car producing countries? The customs for UK buyers for cars from Japan, Germany, France, USA, Korea are the same. 

[Forethat]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

13% of UK exports go to the EU whilst it's only 4% vice versa so a no deal with tariffs is going to hit the UK economy far more than any individual EU country.

Oh dear, you still don't get it, do you? Ok, to be over clear (and I once again speak with the same tone of voice as when I speak to a child, an idiot and customer service):

 

For 2018, the UK had an overall trade deficit of £64 billion with the EU. The numbers consist of a £29 billion surplus on trade services (in year one math language, that means we sold more service than we purchased). The trade on goods carried a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods (using the same year one math, that means we purchased more goods than we sold).

 

Ok, now we can calculate our trade balance (using the same year one math we subtract our surplus from our deficit). You follow, bannork..? That means 93-29=64. Our trade deficit is £64 billion. If you still don't get it I can call in my 9-year old daughter and have her explain.

[Loiner]

Do you have trade deals with which car producing countries? The customs for UK buyers for cars from Japan, Germany, France, USA, Korea are the same. 

Selling plenty of Korean cars in UK already. Watch their sales increase while Polos and AClass plummet.

[Forethat]

1 hour ago, CNXexpat said:

True. And there is not so much what the EU really need from the UK, especially if the car makers will leave the UK, but the Brits need a lot from the EU. By example the people still need cars.

So what you're saying is that the British need to buy cars from German car manufacturers?

I've got bittersweet news for you: the British can buy cars from someone else. But then again, the Germans can make up for that loss by selling their cars to someone else. Why not Turkey, they seem to be keen on joining the EU...

 

 

[candide]

4 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Oh dear, you still don't get it, do you? Ok, to be over clear (and I once again speak with the same tone of voice as when I speak to a child, an idiot and customer service):

 

For 2018, the UK had an overall trade deficit of £64 billion with the EU. The numbers consist of a £29 billion surplus on trade services (in year one math language, that means we sold more service than we purchased). The trade on goods carried a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods (using the same year one math, that means we purchased more goods than we sold).

 

Ok, now we can calculate our trade balance (using the same year one math we subtract our surplus from our deficit). You follow, bannork..? That means 93-29=64. Our trade deficit is £64 billion. If you still don't get it I can call in my 9-year old daughter and have her explain.

Let's assume UK loses all exports to the EU. It means it lose 8% of its GDP. Let's assume UK's natural GDP growth is 2% (that's very optimistic),  UK may enjoy -6% GDP growth. Now let's assume the EU loses all exports to UK. With a similar assumption of a 2% natural growth, the EU will enjoy -0.3% GDP growth.

Before mocking other posters, do your maths.

[Forethat]

2 hours ago, CNXexpat said:

A very good video, packed with neutral information, about what can happen when a no-deal Brexit will come.

 

Yeah, NEUTRAL is exactly the word that comes to mind...

 

[UKresonant]

37 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Selling plenty of Korean cars in UK already. Watch their sales increase while Polos and AClass plummet.

They have been for some time, our 2003 Hyundia has just just turned 10k miles ????????.

[Forethat]

1 hour ago, candide said:

Let's assume UK loses all exports to the EU. It means it lose 8% of its GDP. Let's assume UK's natural GDP growth is 2% (that's very optimistic),  UK may enjoy -6% GDP growth. Now let's assume the EU loses all exports to UK. With a similar assumption of a 2% natural growth, the EU will enjoy -0.3% GDP growth.

Before mocking other posters, do your maths.

Well, EU-UK trade balance is something completely different than GDP, but for the sake of this debate let's look at the individual numbers:

Out of the EU:s 27 member states the UK had a trade deficit with 20 of these countries, a surplus with 3 and was broadly in balance with 4. That's 2018 numbers. Of course there are winners. The countries are:

• Ireland 
• Luxembourg
• Malta

That's it. All the other countries in EU will be at the sharp end of the stick in a No Deal Brexit situation.

 

The reason I've previously mentioned car sales figures is that in 2018, road vehicles were the UK’s single largest import from the EU, valued at £46.5 billion, 17.4% of all UK goods imports from the EU and 43% of all UK imports of road vehicles. The second largest import was medicinal & pharmaceutical products valued at £17.7 billion and 6.7% of total UK import. Electrical machinery & appliances came in third at £11.4 billion and 4.3% of total UK import.

 

So, yes, UK might experience a serious loss, but Germany and Spain are likely to go bankrupt long before that happens. 

 

 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

54 minutes ago, Forethat said:

 All the other countries in EU will be at the sharp end of the stick in a No Deal Brexit situation.

Complete nonsense. For all EU27 countries, only 1-7% of their exports will be affected; 93-99% will be safe. Compared to 50% of the UK’s export. That answers the question who will be hurt most. 

 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 hours ago, Forethat said:

the British can buy cars from someone else.

You can’t buy a Benz or BMW from someone else. 

 

[Forethat]

24 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Complete nonsense. For all EU27 countries, only 1-7% of their exports will be affected; 93-99% will be safe. Compared to 50% of the UK’s export. That answers the question who will be hurt most. 

Dear me, I probably have to call in my nine year old here to give you an explanation...

 

It's not what we sell to the EU, it's what we buy FROM the EU. You still don't get it, correct..?

[Loiner]

You can’t buy a Benz or BMW from someone else. 
 

When the prices go up nobody will want to buy Benz or BMW.

If you really want the badge you could buy a Thai fake one. Thonburi Automotive Assembly Plant or the Rayong BMW factory will be knocking them out cheaper than EU imports.

[superal]

On 8/11/2019 at 5:13 PM, puipuitom said:

a) when the UK leaves the EU, import duty will be levied on all, what enters the EU. This is MUCH more than the about GBP 8 Bn/yr ( see HoC library CBP 7881 of 24 June '19 )  the UK pays now as "contribution". Remind also WHAT is exported ( but the EU can buy elsewere) and WHAT is imported ( but difficult to replace) from the EU into the UK.

b) Looking to the fall of the GBP the last 2 weeks... this results in an about GBP 22 Bn less income and about the same in higher purchasing costs. So a loss of a 44 Bn on year basis over the trading value of 2018.… Compare this with the UK contribution… 

I guess we can all pull figures off the internet to suit our points of view but none of us truly know what the eventualities will be .   

First of all there are still 10 weeks to run before the deadline of Oct 31st and time for matters to change such as concessions , elections , referendums etc . Even if the EU conceded on the Irish border that TM deal is still unacceptable as we will remain under the EU rules and have no say or vote on any EU business .  Technically speaking if there is still no deal by the deadline the UK will have its membership made void by the EU despite the fact that the UK were still keen to make a deal which  could be seen as reasonable , unlike the TM deal which led to her sacking because of a total waste of 3 years negotiations with the EU . If the EU does not recognise that they overpowered talks , which are evident ref; Rabb & Davies resignations , and reconsider opening new discussions the world will frown on them .

At the moment who is to say who will hurt the most ?  Why should existing trade EU/UK cease ? If the EU continue with their current mood they will probably impose tariffs which will start tit for tat . The UK is making trade deals that unlike the EU way will be made quickly .   The UK is the third largest contributor to the EU union so it goes without saying that the loss of the UK funds will be significant and will have to be found by others which is another dilemma for the ostrich like EU .     

[david555]

47 minutes ago, superal said:

I guess we can all pull figures off the internet to suit our points of view but none of us truly know what the eventualities will be .   

First of all there are still 10 weeks to run before the deadline of Oct 31st and time for matters to change such as concessions , elections , referendums etc . Even if the EU conceded on the Irish border that TM deal is still unacceptable as we will remain under the EU rules and have no say or vote on any EU business .  Technically speaking if there is still no deal by the deadline the UK will have its membership made void by the EU despite the fact that the UK were still keen to make a deal which  could be seen as reasonable , unlike the TM deal which led to her sacking because of a total waste of 3 years negotiations with the EU . If the EU does not recognise that they overpowered talks , which are evident ref; Rabb & Davies resignations , and reconsider opening new discussions the world will frown on them .

At the moment who is to say who will hurt the most ?  Why should existing trade EU/UK cease ? If the EU continue with their current mood they will probably impose tariffs which will start tit for tat . The UK is making trade deals that unlike the EU way will be made quickly .   The UK is the third largest contributor to the EU union so it goes without saying that the loss of the UK funds will be significant and will have to be found by others which is another dilemma for the ostrich like EU .     

Reading the whole post I can only conclude that all shall go smooth for U.K... (especially last paragraph ) in making trade deals with the whole world ….

So my question is why U.K.still is complaining about the undemocratic E.U. and trying YOUR deal done, which is being out of the club but using all the benefits still of them...while you leaving such a " bad membership (?)"  (as Leave camp finds..)

U.K. was not happy in the E.U. , and  out looks same unhappy people…?

U.K. left a club but still keep on trying to change the club rules they left ... over & over again 

 

Leavers normally find their own way in life as any divorcee must

 

Ps: better put ALL your efforts in " no deal preparations " time & efforts better spend I think

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, candide said:

Let's assume UK loses all exports to the EU. It means it lose 8% of its GDP. Let's assume UK's natural GDP growth is 2% (that's very optimistic),  UK may enjoy -6% GDP growth. Now let's assume the EU loses all exports to UK. With a similar assumption of a 2% natural growth, the EU will enjoy -0.3% GDP growth.

Before mocking other posters, do your maths.

Or you could recalculate EU GDP and growth with the UK contribution to these removed from the EU figures (so that EU GDP and growth drops immediately in any case). Numbers still poor for the UK but become actually worse than you say for the EU plus there would be some UK export take-ups elsewhere.

[superal]

28 minutes ago, david555 said:

Reading the whole post I can only conclude that all shall go smooth for U.K... (especially last paragraph ) in making trade deals with the whole world ….

So my question is why U.K.still is complaining about the undemocratic E.U. and trying YOUR deal done, which is being out of the club but using all the benefits still of them...while you leaving such a " bad membership (?)"  (as Leave camp finds..)

U.K. was not happy in the E.U. , and  out looks same unhappy people…?

U.K. left a club but still keep on trying to change the club rules they left ... over & over again 

 

Leavers normally find their own way in life as any divorcee must

 

Ps: better put ALL your efforts in " no deal preparations " time & efforts better spend I think

A deal with the EU would mean that there would be no need for further negotiations to take place on trade deals , free movement of labour and the rights to remain or live in another EU country etc . Brexit does not mean no further contact or business between the EU/UK and so an amicable agreement is needed .  I will try to make it clear to you , the UK does not want anything in the way of subsidies or monetary payments from the EU . The UK is acting like grown ups as opposed to the childish spoilt brat EU who are being seen by other non EU countries as stubborn , intransigent bullies .  

The UK population is not alone for the dislike of the EU . The Germans , French , Spanish and Italians also have a high level of anti EU voters , so will the UK be the only leaver ? I think not . 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

They and the EU will work out another way to sufficiently tighten checks, and most likely already have. 

Exactly, and the UK is not going to like it but will have little choice in the matter, as far as they are concerned everything is a price worth paying

[david555]

3 minutes ago, superal said:

A deal with the EU would mean that there would be no need for further negotiations to take place on trade deals , free movement of labour and the rights to remain or live in another EU country etc . Brexit does not mean no further contact or business between the EU/UK and so an amicable agreement is needed .  I will try to make it clear to you , the UK does not want anything in the way of subsidies or monetary payments from the EU . The UK is acting like grown ups as opposed to the childish spoilt brat EU who are being seen by other non EU countries as stubborn , intransigent bullies .  

The UK population is not alone for the dislike of the EU . The Germans , French , Spanish and Italians also have a high level of anti EU voters , so will the UK be the only leaver ? I think not . 

Whole your answering post is passing by what I said.... better prepare for the final leave moment as E.U. shall not change ….

That is the imminent fact for U.K. all your other predictions are of no issue for U.K or help now , or in future ...

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, Forethat said:

Eeehhh...no, he's communicating the opinion of 27 APPOINTED EU commissionaires, none of which are elected.

Wrong, the commission puts forward the views of the council, but feel free to believe they have never been elected, after all brexiteers promote the myth that nobody in the EU has ever been elected.