EU's Juncker tells Britain: no-deal Brexit will hurt you the most

[Joinaman]

On 8/12/2019 at 4:58 AM, brucec64 said:

How many hard borders in the world between entities not in a common market are regulated by technology only and do not have any border infrastructure?

I thought so.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

So you say a simple border crossing like most countries have is not acceptable ?

Why ?

they show their passport and walk through, just like they do on holiday in Spain or France

What is wrong with having simple customs checks as per other countries, cos it wont effect a lot of the Irish will it ? 

They smuggled before the trouble, smuggled during the troubles, and still smuggle now 

[Joinaman]

20 hours ago, david555 said:

I see...., you fear the result I understand ….

nope

your more than welcome to have another referendum, in about 10 years, after we have left the EU

If the remoaners win, we can go cap in hand back to licking their <deleted> and begging for deals , cant we

[Joinaman]

17 hours ago, Forethat said:

Percentage is irrelevant. This is measured in trade balance.

UK:s trade deficit with the EU is -£64 billion. Which part of this is it that you fail to comprehend?

And southern Ireland is 865 billion isn't it ?

makes ours look a drop in the ocean

[sandyf]

5 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

can you show us exactly what the deal proposed ?

how this would effect us now, and in the future, at what cost, please include the deals agreed in the Lisbon Treaty wont you ?

You keep telling the leavers they dont know what they voted for, so show us what the remainers voted for , please

been waiting, long long time for someone to give us the full facts, on both leaving and remaining, but see,s its all talk , opinion, but no facts, as usual 

You can very easily google the Withdrawal Agreement.

Strikes me that there is little point if you fail to understand what those that voted to remain voted for.

[david555]

3 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

nope

your more than welcome to have another referendum, in about 10 years, after we have left the EU

If the remoaners win, we can go cap in hand back to licking their <deleted> and begging for deals , cant we

I think in 10 years time the Scott's could oppose to that as our E.U. member ….????

[transam]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You can very easily google the Withdrawal Agreement.

Strikes me that there is little point if you fail to understand what those that voted to remain voted for.

Yes, you voted to be controlled by folk across the channel run by a dictator/president...

"The United States of Europe"..Noooooo thank you...

[Jip99]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You can very easily google the Withdrawal Agreement.

Strikes me that there is little point if you fail to understand what those that voted to remain voted for.

 

 

17 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

can you show us exactly what the deal proposed ?

how this would effect us now, and in the future, at what cost, please include the deals agreed in the Lisbon Treaty wont you ?

You keep telling the leavers they dont know what they voted for, so show us what the remainers voted for , please

been waiting, long long time for someone to give us the full facts, on both leaving and remaining, but see,s its all talk , opinion, but no facts, as usual 

 

 

Pound to a bucket of sh!t says that he won't come up with anything.......

[nauseus]

10 minutes ago, candide said:

This is an oversimplistic and biased view. Right, the Commission proposes laws. However the council sets the agenda. On each issue, the European Council can ask the Commission to make a proposal to address it. After the proposal is made, the Council must vote to approve it.

In short, the Council defines the subject and corrects the copy.

But the Council only meets four times a year, with other extraordinary meetings to haggle and barter about nominations for Commission and Bank Chair appointees or even more important issues. The Council only specifies the general direction that the Commission is supposed to follow. Although the Council nominally approves proposals from the Commission, it is impossible for them to follow all of the thousands of new regulations and directives that have to be sent the EU Parliament which MEPs often have to vote on at a rate so fast it is farcical -  if you have ever watched that you would understand - pseudo democracy in a blur!   

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

So you say a simple border crossing like most countries have is not acceptable ?

Why ?

they show their passport and walk through, just like they do on holiday in Spain or France

What is wrong with having simple customs checks as per other countries, cos it wont effect a lot of the Irish will it ? 

They smuggled before the trouble, smuggled during the troubles, and still smuggle now 

A fundamental brexit failing, complete disregard for the identity problem.

The nationalists currently live in NI as though it was one country, only the naive would think they will not take exception in having to show an Eire passport to enter the south, or to get to their home in the north.

[nauseus]

28 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

yup

but how are they gunna repay the 865 billion that they owe the EU ?

I don't know about the number but they could just say leave means leave. ???? 

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, transam said:

Yes, you voted to be controlled by folk across the channel run by a dictator/president...

"The United States of Europe"..Noooooo thank you...

Wrong, I did not vote for what you think.

I voted for things to remain the same as it was fairly obvious that the path to brexit would damage the UK, and that has proved to be the case.

[sandyf]

15 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Excuse me? My nine year old has spent three posts correcting your bull shit and now you are lecturing others on EU structure?

Have you figured out yet that EU Commissionaires are not elected? Will that be your next lecture?

 

And please don't tell me you don't know the difference between the Council of the European Union and the European Council? Something tells me you don't... 

Quite pathetic but bluster does not go very far.

[evadgib]

16 minutes ago, sandyf said:

A fundamental brexit failing, complete disregard for the identity problem.

The nationalists currently live in NI as though it was one country, only the naive would think they will not take exception in having to show an Eire passport to enter the south, or to get to their home in the north.

They're entitled to both are they not?

[Forethat]

How surprised Juncker and his ilk are going to be when their scaremongering fails. Reuters now report that A ComRes opinion poll showed 54% of respondents said they agreed with the statement: “Boris (Johnson) needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs (Members of Parliament) from stopping it.” Only 46% disagreed. The poll doesn't show how many of the 46% wanted to leave, but not on No Deal terms. 

 

"By any means" 54%. Fancy that.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll/majority-of-britons-support-brexit-by-any-means-poll-idUKKCN1V21YG

 

[sandyf]

19 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

Pound to a bucket of sh!t says that he won't come up with anything.......

Nobody needs to come up with anything, EU legislation and the withdrawal agreement are documented and full of facts.

Problem here is that there are some that want to impose their own interpretation of the facts.

[candide]

20 minutes ago, nauseus said:

But the Council only meets four times a year, with other extraordinary meetings to haggle and barter about nominations for Commission and Bank Chair appointees or even more important issues. The Council only specifies the general direction that the Commission is supposed to follow. Although the Council nominally approves proposals from the Commission, it is impossible for them to follow all of the thousands of new regulations and directives that have to be sent the EU Parliament which MEPs often have to vote on at a rate so fast it is farcical -  if you have ever watched that you would understand - pseudo democracy in a blur!   

Actually there are two related Councils. The European Council meets only four times a year to discuss major issues. However the Council of European Union is a permanent structure composed of several councils meeting regularly (i.e. foreign affairs) and several committees. It involves members of national governments, ambassadors of Member states, civil servants, etc... and is quite able to follow up the various issues.

To make it simplecthe European Council is composed of the Head of States while the Council of the European Union is composed of their Ministers.

[sandyf]

6 minutes ago, evadgib said:

They're entitled to both are they not?

Indeed they are, but that is another flaw in the thinking.

My friend lives in Belfast, born and bred, and has an Irish passport, no way on this earth would he ever consider getting a British passport.

We have talked about this and he wouldn't see a problem showing his passport to enter mainland UK or mainland Europe but across the Irish border, different ballgame.

[transam]

25 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Wrong, I did not vote for what you think.

I voted for things to remain the same as it was fairly obvious that the path to brexit would damage the UK, and that has proved to be the case.

Nothing has been proven yet except those across the channel want to keep the UK inside there dream world even after we leave....Trouble with some of you is you want apron strings...

[Jack100]

Does Trumps art of the deal include any mercy for those turning up with a begging bowl ?

[CharlieH]

reported post removed.

[luckyluke]

Much ado about nothing.

 

We in Belgium live mostly very happily. 

 

We don't care who is appointed/elected in the E.U.

We just live with it, as it doesn't have any affect on us personally. 

We even have a King.

 

 

In the U.K. there is a Queen and a House of Lords. 

Both not elected.

So what. 

I don't think the majority of the British have a problem with this, it is there and they live with it, because it doesn't affect them personally. 

 

 

[CaptainNemo]

On 8/11/2019 at 11:13 AM, bristolboy said:

And which of those EU members ships 44 percent of its exports to the UK? None. And what percentage of the UK's exports go to the EU? 44 percent. So who gets hurt worse by Brexit?

Up-to-date facts from credible sources are hard to come by, off-the-cuff parroting of other people's guesstimates are ten-a-penny.

 

Here's some out-of-date information I found with a quick and lazy web search (these are goods only, not services, which the UK trades a lot in):

 

Is the EU concerned enough about humanitarian concerns to carry on exporting to China, Russia, and Turkey (27% of exports on that chart)?

 

 

Here's a Brexaphobe-friendly Guardian infographic, as obviously, sources that aren't hostile to Brexit are automatically dubious for Brexaphobes.

 

Of course, markets aren't static (they shrink and grow); and aren't monoliths (they are comprised of various categories of products which don't flow to and from the same countries in the same quantities.

 

Treating the EU as a monolith seems part of the problem. A huge proportion of trade between European countries that are in the EU and not in the EU is largely due to geographical proximity and relative size of economies. 

Ireland is a case in point, it is a much smaller economy than France, another neighbour, to the UK, but has a much higher quantity of trade per capita. This is partly due to having a pre-existing set of trade and political relationships with the UK that predates the EU.

The same can be said comparing Dutch and German trade with the UK - there's much more trade per capita between the Netherlands and UK than between the UK and Germany.

Similarly, some economies in Europe and in the EU (two separate things) are more dominated by food exports or primary resources than heavy industrial products or high tech products. Different product categories have different levels of value, so simply talking about numerical volume of trade in percentages is somewhat meaningless - Germany exporting vast quantities of engineering goods and services is of much higher value than Food products and hospitality services from Portugal, or clothes and shoes from Bulgaria. When all the exports of separate individual countries in the EU are conflated as though they are all the same, it's concealing the reality of the economics of the EU, and looks like trying to pretend that all the countries in the EU are somehow pretty much the same as the clearly most dominant country, Germany.

Are more granular map gives a better clue as to the real picture in Europe and in the EU:

 

Which is more meaningful? To talk about "EU exports to the UK", or the value of German exports in goods (not services) around the world, regardless of the EU? The latter is more precise, so probably more useful, because we can reasonably surmise that German precision engineering equipment is more valuable per tonne than Greek olives.

 

These figures aren't up-to-date, but for the purpose of illustrating the point, they will do. This data (from "https://www.thelocal.de/") shows about 318bn of exports outside the EU (if you include the UK), and about 365bn within the EU (but doesn't include the full extent of trade with all countries; but chances are that German exports to the whole rest of the world exceeds those to the EU, because German products are well-known and generally considered good value (if you try to argue that people buy EU precision engineering over German precision engineering, you may find your argument unravelling when you see the difference in quality in some EU countries outside Germany).

This is all moot, however, if only one country is a source of a high value item, e.g.: Uranium, trade will be skewed to reflect that. 

 

My point is that glib assertions about percentages of EU trade are useless when it comes to making any kind of argument about this issue.

UK trade with Ireland is as much cultural as in goods (like food products) and services (like banking), and is also distorted by tax evasion policies that let American companies like Amazon, Google, Seagate etc... set up in EU countries like Ireland and Luxembourg as opposed to larger and more complex economies like the UK and Germany: it belies the fact that tax policy is very varied across the EU and doesn't make for a fair and even trade environment. Frankly, the UK is morally within its rights to pursue an aggressive tax cutting policy to create are more attractive environment for companies to set up in, and this is what the EU is possibly concerned about. A UK with it's size, sophistication, and global reach becoming more like Singapore, and less like Germany, presents a challenge to EU economies, which seem to have relied on cost cutting by importing cheaper labour from less developed accession countries in Eastern Europe, which have served to soften the impact of consistently sluggish growth rates that struggle against inflation across the continent, and don't do a lot for long-term (youth) unemployment in many EU countries, such as France and Spain.

 

Who gets hurt worst by Brexit? What is this 44% of exports comprised of? Is it exports in pounds and ounces or pounds and pence? Which countries is it to, and would it realistically stop?

Most of the trade is with the largest countries, and those within easy reach by sea.

 

If the UK decided to lower its own tariffs to offset any change in export prices, would the exports still be attractive, given that the geographical proximity and supply chains are still there? Would the weaker pound also make these exports more attractive to buy for EU countries whose income from exports has been nudged down a few percent by combinations of exchange rates, inflation rates, and WTO tariffs? Does the UK have to export only to these same EU markets, or can it export to new markets in the Americas and rapidly-growing Asia?

 

The answer is probably "it depends"... if the UK moves to being a country with lower corporate tax and with FDI encouraging measures, and if the UK focusses on exporting to countries anywhere in the world who have money to spend, then this would tend to create new growth in jobs and entrepreneurship. It's down to policy. Like the people of Rapa Nui learnt, if chop down too many trees, the forest won't grow, and this is analogous to tax and large-state bureaucracy, which seems to be a feature of the EU and has seeped into the UK with governmentitis and the creation of thousands of new laws, and many new government agencies to manage more aspects of the lives of the public than ever before, to the extent of appearing to try to direct public morals and opinions, reminiscent of China, and other supposedly socialist bureaucracies. Maybe the UK has just managed to save itself from being consumed by this tendency, and those making most noise and feeling the most pain, are those from the parts of British society that benefited from it, at the expense of the rest of the country.

 

Who gets hurt worst? Those who benefited from the EU, which is not the majority, and is why they lost the vote. Like most things, it comes down to money, and if most people in the UK or anywhere were feeling like it was working for them financially, they wouldn't opt out.

[evadgib]

33 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Indeed they are, but that is another flaw in the thinking.

My friend lives in Belfast, born and bred, and has an Irish passport, no way on this earth would he ever consider getting a British passport.

We have talked about this and he wouldn't see a problem showing his passport to enter mainland UK or mainland Europe but across the Irish border, different ballgame.

Such sentiment never used to stop RoI citizens ripping off the NHS or claiming dole each week during  'away days'.

[vogie]

17 minutes ago, luckyluke said:

Much ado about nothing.

 

We in Belgium live mostly very happily. 

 

We don't care who is appointed/elected in the E.U.

We just live with it, as it doesn't have any affect on us personally. 

We even have a King.

 

 

In the U.K. there is a Queen and a House of Lords. 

Both not elected.

So what. 

I don't think the majority of the British have a problem with this, it is there and they live with it, because it doesn't affect them personally. 

 

 

But up to 200 years ago you were part of France and Germany or whatever they called themselves in those days. Your history is part of those countries is it not, you would not be losing your identity by remaining in the EU, your history belongs to France and Germany. 

If we could have carried on by being trading neighbours everything would have stayed hunky dory, but we don't want to be part of a federal EU, not the majority of us anyway.

 

 

[CaptainNemo]

1 hour ago, Joinaman said:

So you say a simple border crossing like most countries have is not acceptable ?

Why ?

they show their passport and walk through, just like they do on holiday in Spain or France

What is wrong with having simple customs checks as per other countries, cos it wont effect a lot of the Irish will it ? 

They smuggled before the trouble, smuggled during the troubles, and still smuggle now 

Quite, I remember driving around the EEC with my dad, we drove from Belgium to Luxembourg, to Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Austria, back into Germany, accidentally into France, then up into Holland, and back to the UK. No checkpoints, no EU. There were little blue milestone markers when you drove across from Belgium, Luxembourg, and Germany, and Belgian francs were interchangeable with Lux Francs. Things only started getting complicated when they changed the EEC into the EU, and they may end up unravelling the whole grand project because they don't allow economic winds to get behind their sails, it's all thinly-veiled politics all the time, and the public across different EU countries are not universally buying it.

 

The issue is really about people coming in who are from countries that are either outside the EU/EFTA/EEA, or significantly poorer, and perhaps originating from outside of the European continent. Ireland recently had to change it's citizenship laws to prevent birth-tourism, getting a foreign child born on Irish territory, and the child being used by the parents to gain access... not unlike what is happening on the US-Mexican border. It would normally be confusing why professional journalists don't investigate the migrants, but we seem to see that politically there are questions that journalists don't want to ask, perhaps their careers depend on following the herd?

[nauseus]

52 minutes ago, candide said:

Actually there are two related Councils. The European Council meets only four times a year to discuss major issues. However the Council of European Union is a permanent structure composed of several councils meeting regularly (i.e. foreign affairs) and several committees. It involves members of national governments, ambassadors of Member states, civil servants, etc... and is quite able to follow up the various issues.

To make it simplecthe European Council is composed of the Head of States while the Council of the European Union is composed of their Ministers.

Not exactly what you said before but, yes, two related councils. The whole structure of the EU is segmented and rather prone to faults due to this, IMHO. The sheer volume of directives and regulations fired out by the EU Commission, enabled by their 33,000 civil servants, makes proper timely scrutiny of these very difficult.

 

Several British MEPs have complained that there is no time to pre read enough detail before they have to vote on specific laws in the parliament, and then, often hardly enough time to identify what which law they are actually voting on, such is the crazy pace of the process. 

[david555]

Tue 13 Aug 2019 09.28 BST   just now ...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/court-hears-challenge-boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit

Court hears fresh challenge to Johnson's no-deal Brexit

Hearing in Edinburgh to determine how timing of bid, backed by more than 70 MPs, could work

 

Boris Johnson is facing a new legal challenge from campaigners backed by more than 70 MPs and peers who want to stop him proroguing parliament to push through a no-deal Brexit.

The legal bid, led by Jolyon Maugham of the Good Law Project, will be placed before the court of session in Edinburgh on Tuesday morning.

 

The MPs’ aim is to get the court to rule that suspending parliament to make the UK leave the EU without a deal is “unlawful and unconstitutional”.

[Sujo]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Indeed they are, but that is another flaw in the thinking.

My friend lives in Belfast, born and bred, and has an Irish passport, no way on this earth would he ever consider getting a British passport.

We have talked about this and he wouldn't see a problem showing his passport to enter mainland UK or mainland Europe but across the Irish border, different ballgame.

I have british, irish, australian passports plus permanent residence in malaysia. 

 

I use each pp taking into consideration entry requirements.

 

But agree, no way would i want to use uk pp entering eire.

[luckyluke]

7 minutes ago, vogie said:

If we could have carried on by being trading neighbours everything would have stayed hunky dory, but we don't want to be part of a federal EU, not the majority of us anyway.

Fair enough to not want to be a part of the E.U. anymore. 

 

My post was about elected/appointed. 

 

Both, the E.U. and the U.K.,are confronted with the same situations and the citizens have no really problems with it. 

 

It is my personal belief that the U.K. has a problem to be part of a group, where they are not automatically the leader. 

 

Germany and even France aspire for this function in the E.U..

 

The history of Great Britain is significant. 

 

Oppose to us Belgians, you have always been leaders, and you want to maintain/reinstore this. 

 

"I am British" is something I still hear,

supposing to be of significant importance. 

 

I suppose it is for the one who express it. 

 

 

 

[transam]

1 minute ago, luckyluke said:

Fair enough to not want to be a part of the E.U. anymore. 

 

My post was about elected/appointed. 

 

Both, the E.U. and the U.K.,are confronted with the same situations and the citizens have no really problems with it. 

 

It is my personal belief that the U.K. has a problem to be part of a group, where they are not automatically the leader. 

 

Germany and even France aspire for this function in the E.U..

 

The history of Great Britain is significant. 

 

Oppose to us Belgians, you have always been leaders, and you want to maintain/reinstore this. 

 

"I am British" is something I still hear,

supposing to be of significant importance. 

 

I suppose it is for the one who express it. 

 

 

 

Nonesense, in fact that could be said for an EU country who tried twice to rule the EU by force and has found another way....