Thai finance ministry cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.8%

By Satawasin Staporncharnchai

 

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the skyline as the air quality worsen in Bangkok, Thailand, December 22, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's finance ministry on Monday cut its 2019 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.0% projected in August, dragged lower by declining exports.

 

The ministry expects its 2019 exports, a key driver of growth, to decline 2.5% compared with an earlier estimate of 0.9% drop, Lavaron Sangsnit, head of the finance ministry's fiscal policy office, told a briefing.

 

"This year's slowdown is mainly because of external factors, but the government has tried to help the economy grow as much as possible," he said.

 

The government in August introduced a $10 billion package to boost domestic activity and also approved additional stimulus last week.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew just 2.3% in April-June, the weakest annual pace in nearly five years.

 

However, the ministry expects second-half growth to be 3.1% year-on-year, after 2.6% in the first, Lavaron said.

 

For 2020, the ministry forecast the country's economic growth at 3.3%, with exports rising 2.6%. Last year, the economy expanded 4.1%, but lagged most regional peers.

 

Next year's growth should also be supported by higher government investment spending, with the new budget plan expected to start early next year.

 

Tourism will also be a key driver, with foreign tourist arrivals expected at 39.8 million this year and rising to 41.5 million by next year, Lavaron said.

 

For a related graphic on Thailand's growth and regional peers, click https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/6975/6906/Thai growth VS regional peers.png

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-28

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And people are expected to believe this? 

7 hours ago, Scot123 said:

And people are expected to believe this? 

Absolutely....surely your not suggesting they are telling "porkies" are you......

38 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Tourism will also be a key driver, with foreign tourist arrivals expected at 39.8 million this year and rising to 41.5 million by next year, Lavaron said.

Baht is sky rocketing along with the tourist arrivals. Yep, makes perfect sense....

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai finance ministry cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.8%

Oh no! This can't be right. 

If they get out of this with anything better than 2.5% growth they will be lucky. The big slide into financial oblivion is on. Military idiots to blame.

https://think.ing.com/articles/thailand-gdp-growth-slows-further-to-23-in-2q19/

If they misstep and the US turns up the heat on them, they will be at far less than ~2% growth.

Better, non-Thai media source below that has comprehensive view of the economic situation.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=asia+times+trump's+trade+wrath+turns+on+thailand&s=g 

Maybe they found it better to revise than buck the IMF recent revisal. 

To put this into perspective

 

GDP 2018 : 4.1% (Forecasted 4.5%)

 

GDP 2019 Forecast : 4.2%

 

Revised June to 3.8%

Revised Aug to 3.3%

Revised Oct to 2.8%

 

That's a BIG drop in cash terms.