Financial Crisis Beginning in Thailand

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, SteveK said:

Thailand eventually wants to become financially independent from tourism altogether, and shed their international reputation as a haven for sex-pats and criminals.

Stop Thai women selling themselves would seem the easiest option to get rid of the 'seedy reputation'.

[mike787]

Yep!  I’d say your analysis and observations are very accurate.  The Elysian days of Thailand are over.  Many expats are moving on to other places.  Only occasional Chinese, Indian, and hell’s angeles biker gang left.   Next stage is Dante’s inferno.

[RickG16]

14 hours ago, Traubert said:

Woe is Thailand at the lack of fighting beer boys from Bolton.

I think @champers is still here

[saengd]

21 minutes ago, jackdd said:

The number of people living in China is not much different to the number of people living in Europe + America

And as i said before, i have no idea why you want to discuss about this part, this has nothing do with my first post which you claimed to be wrong.

Very quickly and last post on this because we are into bickering territory:

 

You wrote, "So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists"....not true.

 

Using numbers from your link, rounded for simplicity sake:

 

Tourist Arrivals x Average Length of Stay x Average Daily Spend.

 

China - 9,847 x 8 (= 78,776 Tourist days) x 193 = 15,204 million

Europe - 6,322 x 17 (= 107,474 Tourist days) x 125 = 13,434 million.

 

Out

[meechai]

I would say yes a financial crisis could be in the making for Thailand but,

Not for the obvious reasons of Higher Baht or Lack of tourism.

 

Instead I would point out the irrational exuberance.

For years now they have overbuilt both subdivisions & condos

Next they overbuilt shopping malls. Never asking themselves who will buy

these & with what income? Who will shop these malls & with what income?

 

Instead they rush in & later when stuck holding inventory they offer the same easy type loans they did in the USA back when they also showed the same signs right before their big crisis.

 

Thailand may not have the same recovery options the US had when their mortgage holding citizens start sending in their jungle mail ( house keys forfeited) Or car & credit card holders default.

 

Hopefully I am wrong but it does look similar to US in 2007-2008

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by meechai

[Why Me]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Ten to fifteen years ago I had a wealthy friend who came on a ten day trip to Thailand with his wife and two kids. All first class. He told me the trip was costing him $75,000. He is a top London attorney. He never returned. None of my wealthy friends come to Thailand. Those that do, never return. 

You think you could get the fellow to come back just this once this year? Might turn the tide.

[Thingamabob]

15 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

It is not that we do not believe you...it is that we can not believe you found it necessary to post it...

Why on earth would anyone pay such high prices. You've been conned.

[champers]

14 hours ago, Traubert said:

Yup, just a negligible 4.9m westerners or so.....

 

Although Britain is 13,000 down from it's peak. Woe is Thailand at the lack of fighting beer boys from Bolton.

You talking to me cocker? See you outside The Tahitian Queen in Pattaya for a straightener. Loser buys the Leos. Up the Whites!

[StayinThailand2much]

8 hours ago, jackdd said:

They don't understand that more arrivals doesn't mean the total time of all tourists spent in Thailand increases as well.

Chinese people stay maybe 3-5 days in average in Thailand

Western tourists might stay 2 weeks in Thailand

So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists.

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

From Wikipedia:

"Despite the increasing number of tourist arrivals, some businesses catering to the tourist trade report declining numbers. Mr Sompoch Sukkaew, chief legal counsel of the Patong Entertainment Business Association (PEBA) in Phuket, said in January 2016 that entertainment businesses are suffering. "Over the past three years, most bars were averaging about B90,000 revenue per day at this time of year,...now they're making just B40,000. Small bars...used to average B40,000 to B50,000 a day, now they're down to just B10,000 per day....PEBA members generated about B1.5 million per day during the peak season. Now it's down to about B540,000 per day." PEBA members number 500 in Patong, with about 200 businesses in the Bangla Road entertainment area. PEBA President Weerawit Kuresombat attributed the decline to the rise in Chinese tourism. "...most of them [Chinese tourists] come on complete tour packages....This means they spend very little on extras....They rarely venture out for the nightlife or even visit independent restaurants. They just don't spend much", he said.^[50]"

[jackdd]

17 minutes ago, saengd said:

Very quickly and last post on this because we are into bickering territory:

Only you are bickering, you claim you are right, but the numbers to which you refer show something different

 

17 minutes ago, saengd said:

China - 9,847 x 8 (= 78,776 Tourist days) x 193 = 15,204 million

Europe - 6,322 x 17 (= 107,474 Tourist days) x 125 = 13,434 million.

China has about twice the population of Europe, so according to your numbers one European equals about 2 Chinese tourists, regarding their spending in Thailand per visit. I can agree with this, the 3 Chinese = 1 western which i assumed in my first post might have been a bit too high.

Edited November 16, 2019 by jackdd

[emptypockets]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Ten to fifteen years ago I had a wealthy friend who came on a ten day trip to Thailand with his wife and two kids. All first class. He told me the trip was costing him $75,000. He is a top London attorney. He never returned. None of my wealthy friends come to Thailand. Those that do, never return. 

Maybe it is just you?

[StayinThailand2much]

16 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

About 15 years ago you could easily find these statistics on the official TAT website, before they were taken off. I remember that, back then, the average stay of a tourist was 2 or 3 weeks, compared to 7-8 days now, meaning that income from the 10-11 million tourists back then equals that of 20 or 25 million tourists now. (Average daily spending back then was equal or only slightly lower than today, but prices were much lower in 2004!) - Meaning (at 2004 prices), Thailand's tourism income has barely doubled, while tourist numbers have quadrupled, not to mention the much higher pollution and damage to Thailand's natural environment.

Edited November 16, 2019 by StayinThailand2much

[Foexie]

Could be happening yes.

 

At my wife's work last week they let go around 600 temperarely workers/subcontractors and they also stopped the overtime every day what they could do.

 

And you already could read on TV that factories already cut their production numbers for export like Toyota and Sony.

 

Think the most stable situation for everybody would be around 42-44bht/euro.

[sawadee1947]

Yeah, if I look into my pockets...... I agree with you...... financial crisis... Definitely ????

[jonwilly]

17 hours ago, Banana7 said:

 

These are strong indicators that a financial crisis is beginning in Thailand.

No I can't agree with you. Baht very strong, money flowing in , can't imagine why your worried about the hotel trade.

 

john

[Burma Bill]

16 hours ago, CNXexpat said:

I think you don´t know what a financial crisis is. It has nothing to do with some empty hotels. In Chiang Mai are so many tourists. The streets are full. 

Yes I agree. Have just returned from 3 day visit to the British Legion Remembrance Service in Chiang Mai and Loy Krahtong festivities and streets/roads very busy. Many tourists up at Doi Suthep as well.

[Hector74]

Yeah the Thai economy is not doing well because of the Thai baht hurting tourism and especially their exports!!! Foreign currency pretty much runs their economy which revolves around exports and tourist dollars, pounds, Euros, or whatever. But there appears to be good news coming but it’s just happening real slow. The Thai baht is FINALLY starting to bottom out and decline and last month the USD was the lowest I’ve ever seen but still not too bad compared to pretty much ALL the other country’s currencies and the USD hasn’t really dropped that bad. But I’ve noticed that this month the USD is now slowly starting to do better again I emphasize SLOWLY but slow progress is better than none and DEFINITELY better than it decreasing any more which isn’t happening thank God. So next year and probably into 2021 these things are going to start getting better the way it’s currently looking which is good. 
 

The better foreign currencies do in Thailand the better the Thai economy does it’s as simple as that because Thailand depends on exports and tourism without those two things the Thai economy can’t sustain itself forever which is probably why the Thai baht is FINALLY starting to decline slowly. It’ll probably start improving faster for Thailand and for those of us living here within a year and then we’ll see all our exchange rates improve. I’m just thankful I get paid in USD because the USD is always worth something no matter how bad a country’s economy gets. $$$$$$$$????. 

[Mitkof Island]

I said it before and i will say it again > A CRASH IS COMING !

[saengd]

Economic statistics is a delayed numbers game, we wont actually know until the end of this quarter what the true picture was one quarter prior. I don't believe we are at the star of a financial crisis, I think the numbers are and the fundamentals are still way too good for that, even if they aren't as good today as they were yesterday. A lot is made of the fact that Thailand's GDP growth is much less than Vietnam and Malaysia, what people overlook is that Thailand's GDP is significantly higher and larger than Vietnam or Malaysia and that Vietnam in particular is the johnny come lately into the SE Asian economic arena. Even at 2.8% GDP growth, that equates to a dollar total that is higher than Vietnam's GDP growth that is significantly higher.

[billd766]

5 hours ago, legend49 said:

It may also rain next year too?

I hope so, but I am not counting on the rain much before May at the earliest.

[ubonr1971]

I thought this thread was going to be an informative one about a financial crisis in T. Instead its some guys opinion based on cheap hotel rooms and empty restaurants

[soalbundy]

18 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

 

Having a load of unemployed plebs and some bankrupt hotels and restaurants isn't going to hurt the government until election time and wont hurt the economy at all not until investments get repatriated and some real big name companies fold.

[SteveK]

The country is in the toilet because the people in power are all billionaires, and will not do anything to correct the obvious problem with the currency because they care too much about their own personal wealth and couldn't give a rat's ass about the rest of the populace who are struggling to make ends meet. Having a military government seems to make intelligent decisions and actions even harder, if that were ever possible.

[Kwasaki]

20 hours ago, Banana7 said:

It seems that Thailand is at the beginning of a financial crisis and things here are getting financially bad for many people.

[BestB]

So to summarize, its financial crisis, because at the time you went to a restaurant and it was almost empty it means its always empty and therefore financial crisis?

 

You went to a resort, did not see anyone while you stayed outside your room instantly translated into you were the only one there and it was financial crisis?

 

And as it turns out, Thai's are returning back home but not to farm their own land, but wait in queue to go farm someone else's?

 

Yup, totally rational and reasonable

[BestB]

3 hours ago, SteveK said:

The country is in the toilet because the people in power are all billionaires, and will not do anything to correct the obvious problem with the currency because they care too much about their own personal wealth and couldn't give a rat's ass about the rest of the populace who are struggling to make ends meet. Having a military government seems to make intelligent decisions and actions even harder, if that were ever possible.

How can country be in toilet when all you see is brand new or nearly new cars on the roads.?

 

Yes there are fewer tourists and factories are closing down, but most certainly FAR from financial crisis.

 

Thailand's foreign reserves are one of if not the highest in the world, something like 300 BILLION dollars, country has been running budget surplus for years, ie no debt.

 

Almost non existent unemployment rate and ones who are unemployed simply do not want to work, as there is is work everywhere.

 

Compare financial position of your home country and Thailand is light year upfront.

 

Yes, it does not trickle down to the bottom, but most certainly no where near the financial crisis.

 

People making silly comments such as "i was the only customer in hotel"is beyond stupid, as these people have no idea what happens in other rooms, just because you do not see someone in reception, does not mean hotel is empty.

 

Being a hotel owner, i get this type of morons all the time, just because when they come or go they do not see someone it instantly means in their tiny brains they are the only ones.

 

As i type, have a moron, who is claiming he is the only customer, yet we are about 80% full. The reason why he does not see anyone, is because he goes out at 8:00am, all other rooms recovering from the night before and comes back at 19-20pm, all rooms have already gone out.

 

Same applies for same people making stupid comments about being the only customer in the restaurant. Yes at one particular moment in time, they may well be the only customers, it does not mean it was not packed earlier or will not be packed later.

 

 

[Destiny1990]

28 minutes ago, BestB said:

How can country be in toilet when all you see is brand new or nearly new cars on the roads.?

 

Yes there are fewer tourists and factories are closing down, but most certainly FAR from financial crisis.

 

Thailand's foreign reserves are one of if not the highest in the world, something like 300 BILLION dollars, country has been running budget surplus for years, ie no debt.

 

Almost non existent unemployment rate and ones who are unemployed simply do not want to work, as there is is work everywhere.

 

Compare financial position of your home country and Thailand is light year upfront.

 

Yes, it does not trickle down to the bottom, but most certainly no where near the financial crisis.

 

People making silly comments such as "i was the only customer in hotel"is beyond stupid, as these people have no idea what happens in other rooms, just because you do not see someone in reception, does not mean hotel is empty.

 

Being a hotel owner, i get this type of morons all the time, just because when they come or go they do not see someone it instantly means in their tiny brains they are the only ones.

 

As i type, have a moron, who is claiming he is the only customer, yet we are about 80% full. The reason why he does not see anyone, is because he goes out at 8:00am, all other rooms recovering from the night before and comes back at 19-20pm, all rooms have already gone out.

 

Same applies for same people making stupid comments about being the only customer in the restaurant. Yes at one particular moment in time, they may well be the only customers, it does not mean it was not packed earlier or will not be packed later.

 

 

Ehhh but now you’re saying things are going great here because u see several new cars on the roads??

With 1000 bht down payment u can have a new car here also !

Edited November 16, 2019 by Destiny1990

[BestB]

3 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Ehhh but now you’re saying things are going great here because u see several new cars on the roads??

With 1000 bht down payment u can have a new car here also !

Total BS, you can not have a car with 1000 baht down payment

[spidermike007]

10 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Maybe it is just you?

Can you explain? Are you saying they did not return because I was in Thailand. Funny man.

[spidermike007]

11 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Stop Thai women selling themselves would seem the easiest option to get rid of the 'seedy reputation'.

And the only way that is going to happen, is if we see a China style massive raise in wages. Do you really think the government, and the elite that they work so hard to coddle and protect, want to see that happen?