Johnson on track for 24-seat majority - Focaldata

[webfact]

Johnson on track for 24-seat majority - Focaldata

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks at a general election campaign event at the Globus Group warehouse in Manchester, Britain, December 10, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is on track for a 24-seat majority after Thursday's general election, polling company Focaldata forecast on Tuesday, down sharply from its forecast last month of an 82-seat majority.

 

Focaldata predicted that the Conservatives would win 337 seats in the 650-seat parliament, followed by Labour on 235, the Scottish National Party with 41, and the Liberal Democrats with 14 based on its forecasting model and recent polling data.

 

This compares with a previous forecast on Nov. 27 that the Conservatives would win 366 seats, which assumed no tactical voting by supporters of smaller parties and is based on a so-called MRP analytical model.

 

"Things are incredibly finely balanced. We calculate (around) 67 seats that are incredibly marginal and are essentially too close to call," Focaldata said.

 

YouGov, a larger polling company, is due to publish its closely watched final election forecast around 2200 GMT. YouGov's last forecast, also on Nov. 27, predicted a 68-seat majority for Johnson.

 

Datapraxis, another polling company, forecast a 38-seat majority on Dec. 7.

 

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Sandra Maler)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-12-11

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[steve187]

lets wait til Thursday evening, early Friday morning, these polling companies are good at getting it wrong, but lets hope the pensioner does'nt win.

[z42]

What kind of person would vote for more Tory blundering? Surely almost a decade has been ghastly enough.

These establishment parties are truly nauseating ????

[melvinmelvin]

18 minutes ago, z42 said:

What kind of person would vote for more Tory blundering? Surely almost a decade has been ghastly enough.

These establishment parties are truly nauseating ????

 

what kind?

 

most of the electorate that bother to vote it seems

 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, z42 said:

What kind of person would vote for more Tory blundering? Surely almost a decade has been ghastly enough.

These establishment parties are truly nauseating ????

Maybe someone who doesn't want to see the UK turn into some kind of failed state, a bankrupt, communist madhouse led by an anti Semitic OAP who considers Hezbollah amongst his friends?

 

The Tories are far from perfect but Labour are downright dangerous under Corbyn.

  

[blazes]

1 hour ago, z42 said:

What kind of person would vote for more Tory blundering? Surely almost a decade has been ghastly enough.

These establishment parties are truly nauseating ????

 

So you're voting for Plaid Cymru are you?

[Dogmatix]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

Maybe someone who doesn't want to see the UK turn into some kind of failed state, a bankrupt, communist madhouse led by an anti Semitic OAP who considers Hezbollah amongst his friends?

 

The Tories are far from perfect but Labour are downright dangerous under Corbyn.

  

Unfortunately by fielding a totally unelectable leader in Jeremy Corbyn Labour has probably elected  the lying bufoon, Johnson, and doomed the UK to a self destructive hard Brexit at the end of 2020, while preparing the way for the fragmentation of the union. I no longer blame the SNP for wanting to secede and the Northern Irish protestants will eventually have to face union with the Catholic South due to Johnson's deal which sold them down the river. 

 

Probably the first group to be disappointed in Johnson's second term will be the Tory extreme right wing nutters in the ERG, Jacob Rees Mogg et al.  He has only coopted them to for the referendum, the leadership contest and this election. Once he has a decent majority with their help and has got Brexit done, he will free to sell them down the river too, as he has done with everyone in his life so far - the ultimate narcissist. He knows that ERG policies and attitudes will not keep him in power beyond Brexit.

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

Unfortunately by fielding a totally unelectable leader in Jeremy Corbyn Labour has probably elected  the lying bufoon, Johnson, and doomed the UK to a self destructive hard Brexit at the end of 2020, while preparing the way for the fragmentation of the union. I no longer blame the SNP for wanting to secede and the Northern Irish protestants will eventually have to face union with the Catholic South due to Johnson's deal which sold them down the river. 

 

Probably the first group to be disappointed in Johnson's second term will be the Tory extreme right wing nutters in the ERG, Jacob Rees Mogg et al.  He has only coopted them to for the referendum, the leadership contest and this election. Once he has a decent majority with their help and has got Brexit done, he will free to sell them down the river too, as he has done with everyone in his life so far - the ultimate narcissist. He knows that ERG policies and attitudes will not keep him in power beyond Brexit.

Depends on the size of the majority that Johnson gets. If it's a small majority then he'll need the ERG's support to get the numbers in the HOC. He'd need to be careful about selling them down the river.

[stephenterry]

21 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Maybe someone who doesn't want to see the UK turn into some kind of failed state,  apologies for edit.

 

 

  0 

...which is what will happen if (when) johnson sells us down the river with brexit. Yeah, sure, go on and vote for his party and at the same time press the destruction button.  

[JonnyF]

7 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

...which is what will happen if (when) johnson sells us down the river with brexit. Yeah, sure, go on and vote for his party and at the same time press the destruction button.  

Johnson wants a withdrawal deal followed by a comprehensive free trade deal.

 

It's certainly preferable to Corbyn's Marxist mission to steal wealth and turn the UK into some kind of communist utopia, while simultaneously giving the electorate a choice between Remaining and BRINO. 

 

Anyway let's see. As a Democrat I will accept the result of the election. I hope you can provide losers consent this time around.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

The Tories are far from perfect but Labour are downright dangerous under Corbyn.

  

You obviously believe that parliament has no say in what the government does.

[sandyf]

28 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Johnson wants a withdrawal deal followed by a comprehensive free trade deal.

 

Of course he does, quite prepared to sign anything. Sold the DUP out to claim a "renegotiated" WA. There will never be any "good" deals.

 

And the UK would be negotiating with a man who claims he has mastered the art of the deal and holds most of the negotiating cards, insisting that “everything is on the table”. In Trump’s world view, Britain is one of those “bad” countries “ripping off America” by running a trade surplus with the USA: not a good starting point for seeking concessions from them. In return for a signature on a piece of paper which Boris Johnson can wave to Tory acclaim, Trump would demand a high price.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/vince-cable-nhs-trade-deal-us-trump-negotiation-a9240196.html

[Old Croc]

14 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You obviously believe that parliament has no say in what the government does.

They might go with the American model.

[Rookiescot]

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

[Old Croc]

Many similarities with the last elections in the US and Australia.

Conservatives win because the labor/democratic parties put forward unpopular, unelectable candidates 

[sammieuk1]

Shows how lame whispering JC is after 9 years of Tory rape at least he will be booted out to the allotment of vegetables as Boris continues his pillage ???? 

[RuamRudy]

47 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

It's certainly preferable to Corbyn's Marxist mission to steal wealth and turn the UK into some kind of communist utopia, while simultaneously giving the electorate a choice between Remaining and BRINO. 

 

 

This is a joke, right? Remember Quantitative Easing, and the transfer of public cash to a few wealthy people who caused the global financial crash? Remember the decade of unnecessary austerity which took billions from the pockets of working class people and put them in the pockets of rich friends of David and Gideon? Have you seen the growth in food banks (more now than McDonald's), the rise in UK personal debt or the number or professional people who are forced to take two jobs just to survive? The tories have fleeced us blind, and the most galling part is that so many still meekly doff their caps and swear blind allegiance to these corrupt parasites.

Edited December 11, 2019 by RuamRudy

[JonnyF]

37 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You obviously believe that parliament has no say in what the government does.

How did you deduce that from my post?

 

I'm well aware of how Parliament (and the speaker) can tie the government's hands, you only need to look at the disgraceful 2019 Parliament and Bercow's final months.

 

However, with Bercow gone (thank god) and a heavy Tory majority it would be very difficult for the loser parties to hold the country hostage by voting against everything. 

[JonnyF]

26 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Yes Corbyn must regret allowing this election to happen.

[elliss]

 

      Deep mid winter,  expect a low turnout .

       Sales galore take priority ,  over a General Election .

        UK , apathy rules ..

 

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by elliss

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

How did you deduce that from my post?

 

I'm well aware of how Parliament (and the speaker) can tie the government's hands, you only need to look at the disgraceful 2019 Parliament and Bercow's final months.

 

However, with Bercow gone (thank god) and a heavy Tory majority it would be very difficult for the loser parties to hold the country hostage by voting against everything. 

If it means destroying brexit, which is best for Britain, I'd support parliament's decision. As for winners and losers, it's more about saving the UK than a two horse race.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, stephenterry said:

If it means destroying brexit, which is best for Britain, I'd support parliament's decision. As for winners and losers, it's more about saving the UK than a two horse race.

Well unfortunately for you the next Parliament will be much more representative of the people as the traitors will have been voted out by the increasingly informed/angry electorate that they betrayed (the more cowardly MP's such as Heidi Allen resigned before they could be removed). The chickens are coming home to roost for these disgraced MP's and thankfully Bercow has finally gone, so since more people wish to Leave the EU than remain, it will be confirmed late on Thursday that this is what is going to happen. Thankfully Democracy will prevail in the end, even though Remainers have put the country on hold as they tried to stop it for 3 1/2 years.

 

Whether you support the new Parliament's decision is neither here nor there, you can vote for an MP and then you can accept the democratic result (assuming of course that you accept the democratic will of the people THIS time).

 

As for winners and losers, I hate to break this to you but this isn't some under 7's football league where all the kids get a medal for taking part, it's an election.

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Johnson wants a withdrawal deal followed by a comprehensive free trade deal.

and I want to win the lottery, unfortunately the chances are very slim as I don't play... now explain why the EU should agree to a FREE trade deal, the UK was in the EU and had a free trade deal, if they leave why should they expect to have the same deal as they had before... dream on

[transam]

4 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Not you then...?

 

 

 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

and I want to win the lottery, unfortunately the chances are very slim as I don't play... now explain why the EU should agree to a FREE trade deal, the UK was in the EU and had a free trade deal, if they leave why should they expect to have the same deal as they had before... dream on

 

That's a pretty good reason, not to mention certain EU countries teetering on recession.

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, JonnyF said:

How did you deduce that from my post?

 

You were quite specific.

"but Labour are downright dangerous under Corbyn."

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

That's a pretty good reason, not to mention certain EU countries teetering on recession.

No, it is not. With the EU "values" and "standards" take precedence, something the UK will learn to it's cost.

[JonnyF]

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You were quite specific.

"but Labour are downright dangerous under Corbyn."

Yes they are.

 

And how does that statement demonstrate that I think that Parliament has no say over what the government does?

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, sandyf said:

No, it is not. With the EU "values" and "standards" take precedence, something the UK will learn to it's cost.

Well the EU can include their "values" and "standards" in the trade deal if they like. Having values and standards does not mean you cannot trade or have a trade deal with other countries. For example, the EU trades with the USA and China without a trade deal and without regulatory alignment.

 

The only thing stopping the EU doing a quick trade deal with the UK is that they want to deter other countries from leaving. Let's see how long that lasts when the UK stops buying their products because the tariffs are too high. Germany is on the brink of recession. 

 

 

[sandyf]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

Yes they are.

 

And how does that statement demonstrate that I think that Parliament has no say over what the government does?

So are you really trying to say that parliament would be dangerous under Corbyn?