Virologist says measures must be implemented for one year to address coronavirus

[snoop1130]

Virologist says measures must be implemented for one year to address coronavirus

 

FILE photo

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - The emergence of the new coronavirus was reported in December last year, with the first cases turning up at a seafood market in the city of Wuhan, China. It is less deadly than the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

 

MERS’ mortality rate is 30%, while SARS’ mortality rate stands at 10%. The mortality rate of the new coronavirus is below 3%. Most of the fatalities have been in elderly patients as well as those with congenital diseases, such as brain disorders, lung cancer and diabetes. Children and people without congenital diseases have lower mortality rate.

 

"Take a look at the death toll now. There are almost no children. A nine-month-old baby is the youngest known patient, and the baby’s still alive. The youngest patients who died are about 30 years old. Most of them have congenital diseases, such as brain disorders, heart diseases, lung diseases, diabetes or cancer. There are patients who are over 80 years old. At first, more than half of them were over 80 years old. Many cases are 89. If you ask me, some 89-year-old people happen to fall and die. So, don’t panic about the number of fatalities. A majority of them have congenital diseases, pneumonia or influenza. Their depth of breathing is lower than normal, and there’s a possibility that they want to eliminate excess phlegm. This can pose a life-threatening risk. Most fatalities are not young people. There’s not much difference from the common influenza. If people who are 89 or 90 years old have influenza, that’s not good," said Prof. Dr. Yong Poovorawan, Head of the Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology (CECV) , Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University.

 

An CECV official showed a graph to illustrate the adverse impact of the coronavirus outbreak that even if the virus can be contained, and strict measures have been taken, the outbreak may last a year, but losses will be minimized. Given the contagious nature of the virus, people will gradually become immune and the outbreak will cease. The virus will then become endemic.

 

"We’ll lower its peak and extend the time, right The medical sector can handle this, but it’s necessary to extend the time. Make it progress slowly, so we can handle it. Even better, make it more extensive. Take all necessary steps to push the curve lower. Let it progress gradually, we’ll handle it better," said Dr. Yong.

 

The country has to minimize the number of infected people for as long as possible, until the immune system can rid the body of the virus. Meanwhile, the medical sector will carry out measures to look after the patients and improve its public health facilities. Once the immune system responds to the virus, or a vaccine for the new strain has been produced, the outbreak will end. All sectors, particularly the public, must cooperate to slow down its spread.

 

Members of the public are advised to avoid crowded areas and direct contact with people who have respiratory illnesses as well as observe one’s own health. People, who have respiratory symptoms, such as cough and shortness of breath, should wear a protective mask and see a doctor or public health personnel immediately.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2020-02-04

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[DrTuner]

'The mortality rate of the new coronavirus is below 3%. Most of the fatalities have been in elderly patients as well as those with congenital diseases, such as brain disorders, lung cancer and diabetes. Children and people without congenital diseases have lower mortality rate.'

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

Quote

The novel coronavirus case fatality rate (CFR) is currently estimated at around 2%, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, January 29, 2020^[1][2].

However, the WHO specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

1. We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."^[1][2]).
2. The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
3. It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization ^[1][2].

 

In other words, the mortality rate is unknown.

 

'The country has to minimize the number of infected people for as long as possible, until the immune system can rid the body of the virus. '

 

A-ha, so that's why they deleted the number of pending lab results from the daily reports. Easy to minimize the count when you don't give any results. In other words, pure Thai, 'let's wait and see if it goes away'.

 

Brought to you courtesy of Xinhua: https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start/

Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[monkfish]

Quote

There’s not much difference from the common influenza.

Well I am very relieved to hear that maybe you should tell China as they're on lockdown and probably overreacting.
I think a TV member said something similar on today mmm.

[GeorgeCross]

so it's a disease for the old?

 

that could be a problem

 

we're not all young around here 

 

[DLock]

It's still too early to really understand the mortality rate, or the recovery rate...and this relies on honest and reliable numbers...but let's assume the numbers are correct.

 

The current numbers today indicate that there 20,696 corona virus cases, of which 13% (2,790) are listed as critical. There has been 427 deaths, but only 730 recovered, meaning there are a lot of cases yet to play out...and there are 2 outcomes.

 

Or you could say that of the 1,157 cases that have been resolved, almost 40% have died.

 

Source : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

Most of them have congenital diseases, such as brain disorders, heart diseases, lung diseases, diabetes or cancer. There are patients who are over 80 years old. At first, more than half of them were over 80 years old. Many cases are 89. If you ask me, some 89-year-old people happen to fall and die. So, don’t panic about the number of fatalities.

 

Wow... more "Learn to Love the Virus" propaganda from the Chinese loving government...

 

And don't worry about the old people. They're gonna fall and die anyway!!!  

 

As for age, among the cases reported outside China as of Jan 27:

 

Quote

The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years ranging from 2 to 74 years

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf

 

In subsequent daily updates, the WHO hasn't been including any age data on new cases outside of China.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[GeorgeCross]

19 minutes ago, DLock said:

It's still too early to really understand the mortality rate, or the recovery rate...and this relies on honest and reliable numbers...but let's assume the numbers are correct.

 

The current numbers today indicate that there 20,696 corona virus cases, of which 13% (2,790) are listed as critical. There has been 427 deaths, but only 730 recovered, meaning there are a lot of cases yet to play out...and there are 2 outcomes.

 

Or you could say that of the 1,157 cases that have been resolved, almost 40% have died.

 

Source : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

the mortality rate is also much lower outside of wuhan simply because its much easier to have a team of 20 doctors using all their resources to treat 5 patients then it is for the same team of 20 doctors to treat 200, 300 or 400 as is happening in the overrun wuhan hospitals.

 

i tend to agree with you though regarding mortality rates. as there can only be 2 outcomes (dead or recovered) currently the mortality rate is ~40%

 

the good news is that the rate is looking a lot better than the 60% it was a few days ago. so in theory it will keep dropping as the cases resolve

 

[DrTuner]

Let's see what happens when the incubation period has passed since Chinese New Year. The mass migration won't be without it's effects.

[Salerno]

42 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

so it's a disease for the old?

 

You think they should tell that to the latest patient in Australa, 8 years old.

[rvaviator]

Next week will be interesting - I am sure you know that the CNY holiday was extended by the government for one week - For all 'non essential' workers ...  Advice is 'stay at home' ...

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Salerno said:

You think they should tell that to the latest patient in Australa, 8 years old.

I think he was referring to those that die from the virus as the article states:

 

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

A nine-month-old baby is the youngest known patient, and the baby’s still alive.

 

[DLock]

15 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

the mortality rate is also much lower outside of wuhan simply because its much easier to have a team of 20 doctors using all their resources to treat 5 patients then it is for the same team of 20 doctors to treat 200, 300 or 400 as is happening in the overrun wuhan hospitals.

 

i tend to agree with you though regarding mortality rates. as there can only be 2 outcomes (dead or recovered) currently the mortality rate is ~40%

 

the good news is that the rate is looking a lot better than the 60% it was a few days ago. so in theory it will keep dropping as the cases resolve

 

Agreed, mortality rate will come down, but people hiding behind the 2% mortality rate as a reason not to take Corona seriously are only fooling themselves.

 

Comparing a new virus outbreak with played out virus's like MERS or SARS is meaningless. 

 

Corona deaths have already exceeded SARS deaths in China...and Corona shows no signs of slowing just yet...

 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-death-toll-overtakes-sars-epidemic/a-52235316

[observer90210]

One thing for sure, I definately would not trust the Chinese or neighbouring countries who may start to claim in March that the virus is totally contained and all is safe....overreaction ? ...up to you at your risk....

[Dumbastheycome]

The perpetuation of paranoid reaction will have a beneficial impact overall. Those that are currently being infected  with the seasonal influenza variants will no doubt assume they have  WuFlu and rush to find medical attention. As happened  with  SARS and MERS. Resulting outcome was a global major seasonal decrease in mortality overall including  deaths  from SARS and MERS.

 

 

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, DLock said:

Agreed, mortality rate will come down, but people hiding behind the 2% mortality rate as a reason not to take Corona seriously are only fooling themselves.

 

Comparing a new virus outbreak with played out virus's like MERS or SARS is meaningless. 

 

Corona deaths have already exceeded SARS deaths in China...and Corona shows no signs of slowing just yet...

 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-death-toll-overtakes-sars-epidemic/a-52235316

The mortality rate is not the real issue right now and besides, there is no way to even accurately quantify what it is due to the lag time caused by the incubation period.  It will not be known until after the outbreak has stabilized.

 

The real issue is not how many people have died to date but how many will die once all the infected but not yet confirmed cases become confirmed and then go on to become "Serious Complication" cases requiring ICU care. 

 

You have to understand that expert epidemiological modeling suggests that there are between 37,304 and 133,000 cases of infected people in Wuhan! 

 

The Serious Complication Rate (CSR) is proving to be 20% for nC0V.  Simple math will tell you that this will quickly overwhelm the health care system in China irregardless of a few new hospitals.  When that happens is when the mortality rate (whatever that statistic ends up being) will skyrocket!

 

Considering the very high transmissivenes of this virus (R0 of 2.6), "serious complication" cases will overwhelm the Chinese medical infrastructure in a matter of weeks, not months!

 

I am not being Mr. Doom and Gloom, just presenting the facts.  The good news in the Lancet Report is it kind of spells out the end game in this whole crisis. 

 

The computer models suggest that the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan will occur by April 2020, with other cities in China lagging 2 weeks behind.

As more and more people are exposed to the virus, more and more people will develop immunity, and this "herd" immunity effect will curtail the spread of the virus.

 

Read the Lancet report that describes all of this.  For those who do not know, Lancet is probably the most reputable source of peer-reviewed medical studies and literature in the world.

 

I will post a synopsis of the Lancet Report and link in a following post.  It explains the present situation in a wholly science-based fashion free from hype and opinions  and also forecasts where this is heading over the next few months, as well as explaining how this outbreak is expected to peak by April, 2020.

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The mortality rate of the new coronavirus is below 3%.

So will the TAT consider their stance with potentially 1.5 million Thai deaths on the line ? 

[WaveHunter]

For those who continue to downplay the significance of the nCoV outbreak, I would urge them to read a white paper on the outbreak released by Lancet (probably the most reputable source of peer-reviewed medical studies and literature in the world.  

 

This is a fairly long read but worth your time if you really want some definitive answers instead of opinionated hype.

===

 

It was released on January 31, and describes the present state of the outbreak with sophisticated computer modelling and then forecast expectations during the next few months, until April when the outbreak is expected to peak on its' own (i.e.: herd immunity effect). 

 

This paper It is about as science-based and truthful as you can get!  It can be seen here: 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext.

 

The take-away points IMO of this paper are:

 

1) The basic reproductive number (R0, pronounced R-Naught) is 2.68 (with 95% probability that it is between 2.47-2.86)

The reason I mention this is because there's been a lot of debate on what the R0 might really be with some saying it could be as high as 4.1.  This figure published in Lancet is supported by strong peer-reviewed computer modelling though. So, consider it 2.68 for now.  Why is that so significant?

 

For those who don't understand what R0 (R-Naught) is, and why it is important to consider with nCov, it is because it describes the number of people, on average, each infected person goes on to infect.  In other words, how infectious the virus actually is.  Basically it is an estimate of "spreadability"  of the virus.

 

If a R-naught equals one, one person infects only on another person, and so on, but an epidemic will not occur.  However, if the R-Naught is greater than one, then an epidemic outbreak will occur, and the number of newly infected will be exponential, in relation to the R-Naught number. 

 

To me this is the single most troubling statistic because as more and more of these unknown cases (described in point 2 below) become "suspected" cases, and then "confirmed" cases, 20% of which will become "Serious Complication Cases" requiring ICU care. 

 

The number of such cases will then outpace the number of available ICU beds, and that is when the mortality rate (whatever the actual number ends up being) will skyrocket!

 

So, here is what R0=3 looks like:

It is pretty clear how many new cases will result as those infected in Generation 2 go on to infect three more people each, and then they all go on to infect three more, and so on, and so on.

 

2) The number of infected people is likely to actually be 75,815 according to the computer models (with 95% probability that the number is between 37,304 - 133,330). 

 

This, for me, was a real shocker, as I'm sure it probably is for most who first see these numbers!  This means as more and more of these infected people become confirmed cases, 20% of them will then become Serious Complication Cases requiring ICU care.

 

The number of Serious Complication Cases will quickly exceed the number of available ICU beds in the country's medical infrastructure, and then THAT is when the mortality rate (whatever the number turns out to be) will skyrocket.

 

3) City Seeding in China has occurred in all other provinces: 

What this means is that people who have travelled from the affected area (Hubei province) to other provinces are spreading the virus to other regions of China and outbreak cluster are occuring in those areas now. 

 

In fact, all provinces are now affected, and new major epicenters of the outbreak are now forming.

 

As of 03 February, here were the numbers:

 

4) Epidemic doubling time is 6.4 days

...so the epidemic is growing exponentially in all major cities in China, and the infections are self-sustaining so the data could end up being similar to Wuhan with a lag time of around 1-2 weeks.

 

5) The computer models suggest that the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan will occur in April 2020, with other cities lagging 2 weeks behind.

 

As more and more people are exposed to the virus, more and more people will develop immunity, and this "herd" immunity effect will curtail the spread of the virus.

 

6) Oversea cities have a strong potential for self-sustaining outbreak epicenters unless substantial public health interventions are implemented immediately and well beyond current measure involving only temperature screening to avoid substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic infected people in the incubation period.

====

So, this paper was released on 31 January, and it appears it had a major effect on the World Health Organization taking a more serious stance on this outbreak, as well as on world leaders in most western countries.  So, overall there is cause to be optimistic for the ultimate outcome, but still grave concern for what the next few months hold until April arrives.

 

I am not trying to be an alarmist which is why I hope people will look at what this paper says.  I think it is an honest and unbiased assessment of the crisis and where it will go in the near future...in a very science based format without the usual media hype that is becoming overwhelming right now. 

 

It is promising to see an end point in April, but very troubling to consider what will occur between now and then, not only in China, but in all nations of the world because this IS a pandemic now by definition of the word, and how serious a one it will be depends on people making the right decisions, right now.

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[JHolmesJr]

3 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

so it's a disease for the old?

 

that could be a problem

 

we're not all young around here 

 

 

I have seen a number of twitter videos of people who've been killed by this virus and many of them are not old. 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by JHolmesJr

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

I have seen a number of twitter videos of people who've been killed by this virus and many of them are not old. 

Pneumonia has risk groups, most notably over 60y old, smoking, hypertension: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6901688/

 

But others are susceptible as well. 

 

BTW interesting statistic there: Length of hospital stay 20.72 ± 20.35. I take that's days.

Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

And then there's this always lurking about... : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster

 

Quote

‘Striking’ coronavirus mutations found within one family cluster, Chinese scientists say

‘More work needed’ to determine impact of genetic changes on patients

Case points to viral evolution in human-to-human transmission, researchers say

 

Which makes containing it all the more important, each generation brings with it the possibility of mutation. Thailand's containing measures? Maibpenrai.

[NCC1701A]

"Most of them have congenital diseases, such as brain disorders..."

 

So all of Thai Visa members are at high risk? 

[miamiman123]

The Baht getting weaker and the coronavirus getting stronger??? That’s what I’m talking about ha! 

[30la]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The emergence of the new coronavirus was reported in December last year, with the first cases turning up at a seafood market in the city of Wuhan, China. It is less deadly than the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

Ok, now we know, the Corona is not so dangerous, what I don't understand is, the scientists ask for more intense work and nobody pays attention to the general who keeps saying that "everything is 100% under control".
What should we believe ???

[Emdog]

I can say with absolute confidence that things will get better or they won't. You may quote me

[jesimps]

This reminds me of the movie "Life of Brian" when the messiah is preaching to the five thousand and someone in the crowd shouts "He's making it up as he goes along".

[rocket3rider]

The real issue is not death rate but the ability of already overworked hospitals to provide some level of care to those who present. (Australia)

 

I have this on very good authority.

[rabas]

Here is another scientific study released by Lancet that correctly measured the death rate at 14.6%. Not sure how to say it more clearly.

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

 

The authors of the paper:

 

• Prof Chaolin Huang, MD *
• Yeming Wang, MD *
• Prof Xingwang Li, MD *
• Prof Lili Ren, PhD *
• Prof Jianping Zhao, MD *
• Yi Hu, MD *
• Prof Li Zhang, MD
• Guohui Fan, MS
• Jiuyang Xu, MDc
• Xiaoying Gu, PhD
• Prof Zhenshun Cheng, MD
• Ting Yu, MD
• Jiaan Xia, MD
• Yuan Wei, MD
• Prof Wenjuan Wu, MD
• Prof Xuelei Xie, MD
• Wen Yin, MD
• Hui Li, MD
• Min Liu, MD
• Yan Xiao, MS
• Prof Hong Gao, PhD
• Prof Li Guo, PhD
• Prof Jungang Xie, MD
• Prof Guangfa Wang, MD
• Prof Rongmeng Jiang, MD
• Prof Zhancheng Gao, MD
• Qi Jin, PhD
• Prof Jianwei Wang, PhD ^†
• Prof Bin Cao, MD ^†
   

Edited February 5, 2020 by rabas

[rabas]

44 minutes ago, rabas said:

Not sure how to say it more clearly.

Maybe a better way is to consider the following.

 

You and your two best buddies crash your car into a Bangkok klong and contract a unknown but 100% lethal disease. You are all hospitalized. On day 3 one of your friends dies and you ask the nurse what is the death rate. She replies so far 33.3% have died. Should you worry?

 

Some, particularly the media, are talking about how many have died. They are not trying to calculate the diseases inherent lethality (CFR), which is hard in the beginning.

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by rabas

[FarFlungFalang]

10 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

So will the TAT consider their stance with potentially 1.5 million Thai deaths on the line ? 

They also forgot to mention the +- 2%(approx made up number) margin of error which could put the rate at under 5% or as low as under 1% closer to the normal(?) flu.I'm erring on the number closer to the regular flu rate of 0.13% as the number of unreported cases is unable to be included into the statistic reliably.

Edited February 5, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[justin case]

13 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Most of them have congenital diseases, such as brain disorders,

 than most thais would be dead by now

 

or maybe the lack of common sense is saving the day again, just close your eyes, everything is under control