Kuwait is EVACUATING its citizens from Thailand due to coronavirus

[vermin on arrival]

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

I would have thought from a government's point of view this can only be positive, the pension collecting old with weak immune systems and compromised health would unburden the pension funds, the housing market and the health system all at once. The average person with normal health wouldn't be overly affected, two weeks off sick, which is why you can't extrapolate, the influenza you speak off killed the old and weak, not the healthy.

Well you know since I am 55 and with some chronic health issues (although nothing severe) and pretty much all my friends and immediate family are in somewhat similar situations (some with severe and some not), I can't say that I agree with you. Being older does not mean that it is ok that you just go die. Certainly all these people have some voice in their societies and unlike you, their younger family members may not be happy with cosigning them to the dustbin of history. Do you have living parents or grandparents, etc. that you would be content to just see vanish?

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts, troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[Kinnock]

58 minutes ago, zydeco said:

As Kinnock indicated he is "confused" by my above claim that the US has only tested less than 500 people since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, he might want to look at this:

 

So what?   As more people present symptoms, and more test capability is provided, more people will test positive .... so?

 

The point is that as elsewhere - as the amount and reliability of data increases, the fatality rate estimates will decrease to closer to the actual level.

 

Current estimates by experts have fallen to below 1% already.  I'm sure they will fall further as more analysis is done.

 

The standard of medical care is also a factor ..... in Iran it's not good, plus unreported cases in remote villages, means their data is unreliable.  The growing numbers in more developed markets is now indicating a 0.5% fatally rate, and falling.

 

Yes, the total number of cases will be high in every country soon, as it is quite infectious (more than SARS, less than Chikenpox) and hospitals will struggle, just like the flu epidemics we have every few years, but the fatality rate is just not as high as the alarmist media reports.  My original estimate of 0.2% will be pretty close.

 

So why all the panic and economic damage? Most people can recover from a bad case of cold or flu, but many people will struggle to recover from losing their job, or being forced to take long term unpaid leave. 

 

 

 

[vermin on arrival]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

You don't come across as someone who will consider another person's viewpoint, but although I'm not a microbiologist, I do work with many people who are, and my own background is public health.

 

The popular press loves to stir up a scare, so I understand why some people are worried, but there's many scientific journals that are estimating the probable CFR at well under 1%.  

 

Here's a discussion on why its still difficult to know the true figure, but around 0.2% looks most likely.

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

 

 

Thanks for that article. They also did say there that the lower case fatalities in the outer areas of China may also be underestimated and we could have regions with false lows as well. In a way it seems like they are saying we aren't sure, but it's somewhere between .18 and 2.8% and different regions with stronger and weaker hospital systems may truly differ. However, they are certainly leaning towards a lower figure for cfr.

[hobobo]

13 hours ago, Farma said:

Thailand not on the list.

Must be that they have full trust in the General?

[ukrules]

8 hours ago, shackleton said:

Well if the Kuwait government is going to evacuate their people from Thailand no doubt others will follow

Nobody follows the Kuwait government, they are in irrelevance.

[ukrules]

7 hours ago, terryofcrete said:

China banned all tour groups from traveling to Thailand ... or anywhere I think.

When they lift that ban they will be back within a week, that could be sometime very soon.

[MRToMRT]

One cannot help wondering why the Kuwait Gov is doing this, is it an over precaution or do they have data or insights that we (the unwashed masses) are not party to. 

I am taking it safe and just staying from everyone. Have left Bangkok and spending sometime upcountry. I don't think I am at any particular risk at all really but I have NO confidence in the Gov apparatus here to be "on top" of this thing. I worry it could just go pear shaped. My distrust of the capabilities of the institutions here is more than my fear of catching the bug.

[ukrules]

6 hours ago, sambum said:

If the UK is anything to go by, their nationals are evacuated from China, on a plane accompanied by medical staff and constantly monitored. On arrival in the UK they are immediately put in quarantine for 2 weeks.

Those initial evacuations only happened for one reason - to get their hands on live samples of the virus.

 

They've been much slower to respond since then, they have what they need already.

[DannyCarlton]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

My original estimate of 0.2% will be pretty close.

Nowhere near.

[Kinnock]

16 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Nowhere near.

Well I'll trust my 30 years public health experience versus your 5 minutes Googling the popular press if you don't mind.

 

Another indication is that generally a respiratory virus

that has a high fatality rate and a high likelihood of causing serious illness will usually be poor at spreading, as the people contracting the virus are debilitated or dead, so don't pass it around much.

 

But a milder respiratory disease will spread really well, especially if some people have no symptoms.

 

The SARS epidemic was over in 8 months and was limited to Asia, partly because it created serious symptoms.  MERS was even more deadly, and spread less.  Covid-19 is less serious, and so it spreads much more effectively ..... like the common cold.

 

So every country will have it, and it will be around for a long time - making the current economically damaging restriction unsustainable.

[DrTuner]

Just remember, when you're mowed down by a somchai in a pickup and ICUs are full, man up! Real men pick out the rib bones sticking out and use them as chopsticks, raaahhh!!

 

Seems to be the message some are still sending out. What they fail to see is the disruption of the whole health system, including medicines and anything else that needs importing. The preppers are the only ones who have thought it through and, well, prepared. 

[timkeen08]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

Anyone die?

Did you actually read my post?  No one died except maybe the groom from paying such a large sin sod.

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Just remember, when you're mowed down by a somchai in a pickup and ICUs are full, man up! Real men pick out the rib bones sticking out and use them as chopsticks, raaahhh!!

 

Seems to be the message some are still sending out. What they fail to see is the disruption of the whole health system, including medicines and anything else that needs importing. The preppers are the only ones who have thought it through and, well, prepared. 

How could anyone be prepared for this? Only those in a constant state of paranoia I expect.

[observer90210]

At least Kuwait is smarter then Thailand who is still bootlicking the chinese and letting them in..... totally irresponsable and it will hurt harshly Thailand in no time....

[Don Chance]

There is some evidence that the corona virus only flourishes in cold, dry conditions. So maybe the Thai's are telling the truth.

[DannyCarlton]

7 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Well I'll trust my 30 years public health experience versus your 5 minutes Googling the popular press if you don't mind.

 

Another indication is that generally a respiratory virus

that has a high fatality rate and a high likelihood of causing serious illness will usually be poor at spreading, as the people contracting the virus are debilitated or dead, so don't pass it around much.

 

But a milder respiratory disease will spread really well, especially if some people have no symptoms.

 

The SARS epidemic was over in 8 months and was limited to Asia, partly because it created serious symptoms.  MERS was even more deadly, and spread less.  Covid-19 is less serious, and so it spreads much more effectively ..... like the common cold.

 

So every country will have it, and it will be around for a long time - making the current economically damaging restriction unsustainable.

Despite your "30 years of public health experience" you seem to have missed the prime reason that makes COVID-19 so unique and dangerous. For up to 14 days after infection it's possible to have no symptoms, be totally unaware that you are unwell yet still be spreading the disease far and wide. Perfect for creating a pandemic.

 

How rediculous to compare it to the common cold. Does the common cold have a CFR of 2+?

 

How many people do you know that have died of a common cold?

[DannyCarlton]

1 hour ago, Don Chance said:

There is some evidence that the corona virus only flourishes in cold, dry conditions. So maybe the Thai's are telling the truth.

No scientific evidence of this, links please.

[habuspasha]

2 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

No scientific evidence of this, links please.

A US National Institutes of Health study described in 2008, at:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weather, titled:

Flu Virus Fortified In Colder Weather state in part:

A new finding may explain why the flu virus is more infectious in cold winter months than during warmer seasons….

In October 2007, researchers found that guinea pigs sick with the flu were more likely to get other guinea pigs sick at colder rather than warmer temperatures. 

As the weather warms in spring, the flu viruses dry out and weaken, and the flu season wanes.

 

The 2007 guinea pig study is referenced in a Harvard University paper of 2014 at: http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/ which reads in part:  The author of the Guinea pig study, Dr. Peter Palese, “decided to first test whether or not the flu is transmitted better in a cold, dry climate than a warm, humid one. To test this, Palese infected batches of guinea pigs and placed them in cages adjacent to uninfected guinea pigs to allow the virus to spread from one cage to the other. The pairs of guinea pig cages were kept at varying temperatures (41°F, 68°F, and 86°F) and humidity (20%-80%). Palese found that the virus was transmitted better at low temperatures and low humidity than at high temperatures and high humidity.

[Millcx]

On 2/29/2020 at 8:50 AM, crazykopite said:

I for one do not understand why Thailand have so few cases that alone concerns me when the Kingdom receives over a million Chinese Tourists every year . I would be interesting to know how many Chinese are currently in Thailand there are a few in the villa next to me who came for Chinese New Year I am assuming that due to the virus they cannot get a flight home.

Also where are the special units incase of large outbreaks .. There is no news ... Hiding well

[Jumbo1968]

3 minutes ago, Millcx said:

Also where are the special units incase of large outbreaks .. There is no news ... Hiding well

Surely in this day and age of technology it would be all over social media, it’s not as if the Thai government have blocked Facebook, Twitter etc ?

[Kinnock]

3 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

No scientific evidence of this, links please.

Many references to this in recent papers - as a keyboard epidemiologist you just need to try harder.

 

And it's the Google Experts who are helping to increase the economic damage cause by this outbreak.  Your request for links just shows where you get 100% of your 'knowledge'.

 

My view, so no 'links', is that Vitamin D deficiency in people living in countries with less sunlight during winter is reducing their immune response.

 

This may also help to partly explain the high case numbers in Iran, where the Burqa also causes vitamin D deficiency.

 

But of course some people will rubbish this theory because it is not supported by their first three hits on Google.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Kinnock

[looking on the bright side]

Kuwait can't know more than other countries know. Maybe all this situation is getting politicized. 

The report about ordinary flu deaths : 250.000 to 500.000 people die every year from ordinary flu. Then how many get infected with ordinary flu all over the world every year ? Who knows..  Anyway, hope the number of corona cases soon to go down and wish all the infected patients recover quickly

[KruZik]

On 2/29/2020 at 9:05 AM, Boomer6969 said:

Understanding? Dunno, but we could chose between:

a) Authorities are lying, deliberately, to protect the economy,

b) There is a large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in Thailand,

c) The Thais are ineffective in identifying and tracing the cases.

If you asked me I'd say that all a, b, and c are true. 

I think we'd better throw in hot and humid weather into the mix. I know Singapore has similar weather to here..so I don't know. I also think a lack of active testing is another factor.

[DannyCarlton]

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

Many references to this in recent papers - as a keyboard epidemiologist you just need to try harder.

 

And it's the Google Experts who are helping to increase the economic damage cause by this outbreak.  Your request for links just shows where you get 100% of your 'knowledge'.

 

My view, so no 'links', is that Vitamin D deficiency in people living in countries with less sunlight during winter is reducing their immune response.

 

This may also help to partly explain the high case numbers in Iran, where the Burqa also causes vitamin D deficiency.

 

But of course some people will rubbish this theory because it is not supported by their first three hits on Google.

Yes, yet again, zero links to support yor assertions, none whatsoever. Others have supplied links to accredited sources to support their assertions.

 

Who do you think people should believe/note? Accredited sources or your completely unacredited and personal assumptions, most of which others have shown to have no foundation?

 

As I've said before, it's not people Googling the problem that are causing damage to the economy, it's various governments responding to the issues as they arise and trying to put things in place, mainly containment, to prevent this virus from spiraling out of control and causing widespread fatalities amongst their populations.

[Jonathan Swift]

On 2/29/2020 at 8:03 AM, RichardColeman said:

What do they know that we don't ? 

They discovered the secret plot by the Chinese to wipe out mankind and destroy the world economy with a bioengineered virus. Happy now? Ok, facts. They know exactly what you and everyone else knows. That there are 45 cases. Out of a population of 70 million. That's .000064% of the Thai population. How many cases in your home country if you're not from here? They are acting out of fear and paranoia. You know paranoia, right? It't what you have in place of common sense and reason. There have been 16,000 deaths from the flu so far in the US this season. Shall the world declare a quarantine on the US?

Edited March 1, 2020 by Jonathan Swift
Correct

[habuspasha]

7 hours ago, KruZik said:

I think we'd better throw in hot and humid weather into the mix. I know Singapore has similar weather to here..so I don't know. I also think a lack of active testing is another factor.

A number of people have already pointed out that life in Singapore is much more air conditioned and in enclosed spaces.  Indonesia might be a better comparison to Thailand,  Their relatively low level even in places like Bali might be a result of the outdoor, hot, and humid life.

 

Of course, heat and humidity doesn't protect everyone,  Certainly not a taxi driver who gets a cough in the face.  The heat supposedly affects the spread, not the severity.  As I understand it from the NIH and Harvard studies, the outer shell of the virus protects it better in cold weather, allowing it to move further and longer,  Then when it is absorbed by a human body, the heat opens it up, allowing infection.  In hot weather, the outer shell melts, limiting movement and transfer-ability.

[overherebc]

On 2/29/2020 at 9:26 AM, sqwakvfr said:

I understand why Kuwaitis is doing this.  I lived in Kuwait for years and before I could get a long term visa I had to go to a Government Hospital for a blood test and chest X-ray.  So now in LOS it will be devoid of Chinese and Middle East visitors. Wow, I can’t wait to see the Tourism numbers in the 2nd Quarter?  

This might help you.

[CGW]

11 hours ago, Kinnock said:

My view, so no 'links', is that Vitamin D deficiency in people living in countries with less sunlight during winter is reducing their immune response.

 

This may also help to partly explain the high case numbers in Iran, where the Burqa also causes vitamin D deficiency.

I was advised at the beginning of this "epidemic" to take extra C & zinc and Vit D if not getting any sun, so "personally" agree with that possibility, Singaporeans avoid the sun which could well be a reason for such high incidence there? My thoughts only and not going to be backed up by "Google"! (the worlds new Policeman!)

[Jumbo1968]

‘Thailand, which has had 42 cases of the virus, said a 35-year-old man who died was also suffering from dengue fever’

From the BBC Website.