Coronavirus cannon fodder

[CanuckThai]

What is the factual CV-19 scenario here in LOS?  Local threads/stories with various pieces of Thai government (Ministry of health) data, report a stagnant/stopped infection rate here in Thailand.   Setting the rhetoric and conspiracy theories aside, what are the FACTS with regard to the CV-19 situation? 

 

Is the virus as contagious as presented by WHO and international infectious disease professionals?  If so, why is there no increase in infection cases reported here? 

I'm not hoping for more reported cases, but I certainly would like to know the risk of being infected, or becoming a carrier during travel through BKK or DMC.   

 

My gut feeling is: we are being treated like coronavirus cannon fodder...all for the sake of a faltering LOS

[Sheryl]

The simple answer is no one knows.

 

The number of reported cases does not seem at all plausible, I would say at least a zero is missing, and the criteria being used to decide who to test are unduly limiting which of course reduces case finding..

 

That said, it seems clear that so far there has not been a huge outbreak here. Even without official reporting that would be nigh on impossible to conceal.

 

It may be that the virus is less virulent/does not live as long in hot climates but this is just speculation. All of the countries where spread has been significant are ones where weather is currently cold. But that is just theory.

 

Or there may be some as yet unknown reason why cases in Thais are just more mild so less likely to come to notice (this too could be climate, or it could be some as yet unidentified genetic  factor, or it could be some cross immunity in the Thai population  etc etc). We simply do not know.

[KhunBENQ]

In a country with gag orders, threats by "fake news center" what do you expect?

So I won't write what is heard through the grapevine.

[Sheryl]

The problem with the grapevine is that it is rife with ridiculous rumors. And no way to distinguish fact from fiction. Even what starts out as fact, by the time it is repeated for the 5th time, has been greatly magnified and distorted.

[geriatrickid]

Yes, it is highly contagious. 

Yes, we expect to see the  illness follow the SARS infection footprint. Covid 19 is in effect a new strain of SARS and WHO did  a disservice when it refused to use the appropriate  name of SARS-CoV-2.

Respiratory illnesses come and go as long as there are reservoirs of infected people to draw upon.  What we are seeing now are expat Chinese returning to China and bringing the disease with them from the UK and Italy. China, despite its initial failures and negligence, has down a tremendous  job in responding and in giving the world time to prepare. It is now  the  western world which is failing to respond appropriately.

In respect to Thailand, if you want an indication of what to expect, look up the Thai response in 2003. I believe that the response in 2003 was better and more effective. Thailand imposed 14 day quarantines on all entries from  high risk countries.  The failure in 2020 to have quarantined or stopped the entry of Chinese visitors and now Thais returning from South Korea is in IMO an outcome changer.  Temperature scans are all but useless.

[goatfarmer]

Thailand, thankfully, has not gone on a massive testing spree, as in Europe and Korea, the net result of which has been to create panic as the ignorati confuses 'reported cases' for 'total actual cases' and inflates the case fatality rate. 

 

So the number of 'confirmed cases' in Thailand is small. The number of suspected cases is much higher. It can be found from the Department of Disease Control. As at 11am on 4th March there were 3,680 'patients under investigation' PUI, of whom 1,545 were in hospital. 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no60-030363.pdf

 

Even the number of 3,680 is probably a tiny fraction of actual cases, most of which have mild or no symptoms:

 

"Australia's chief medical officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, told Senate estimates that 80 per cent of people who contract coronavirus exhibit "such mild symptoms they barely notice it and that's particularly the case in children"." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-04/coronavirus-nsw-second-death-confirmed-22-cases/12023216

 

I know three people who have had symptoms resembling the virus (dry cough, fever, malaise, aches and pains). One was quite sick, the other sick, but still went travelling overseas, the other very mild. None of them sought medical attention. All have recovered. I suspect that the majority of cases are in this category - unreported.

 

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by goatfarmer
grammar

[KeeTua]

On 3/4/2020 at 1:55 PM, Sheryl said:

It may be that the virus is less virulent/does not live as long in hot climates but this is just speculation. All of the countries where spread has been significant are ones where weather is currently cold. But that is just theory.

The argument that it maybe Thailand's warmer climate contributes to the relatively few cases doesn't explain why Singapore has so many more cases reported.

 

Singapore population 6 million
As of March 1 - 106 cases

Thailand 70 million
As of March 5 - 47 cases

 

One thing that could set Thailand apart from some of the other Asian countries could be that the vast majority of the population live their lives outside of enclosed, air conditioned spaces. Government hospitals are open air affairs as are the typical clinics. Restaurants and shopping open air, homes with doors and windows open most of the time, no air-con. Philippines is similar with a low number of reported cases.

 

The website " Coronavirus disease 2019: Cases in Singapore" is very cool with it's timeline, too bad there isn't a similar one in Thailand:
https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

[Orton Rd]

How is the government explaining the unusual spike in pneumonia cases of almost 3k, and have these people been tested for the covid 19 virus to see if that caused it?

[ThaiBunny]

The cases in Singapore are clustered around two Christian churches, as is the Korean outbreak

[Sheryl]

In addition I think testing in Singapore has been much more extensive. It is a more disciplined, efficient and compact environment. A such its total cases probably represents most of actual which is almost certainly not the case here.

 

106 cases out of 6 million people in a densely populated urban environment is not a lot at all.

[ThaiBunny]

6 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

In addition I think testing in Singapore has been much more extensive. It is a more disciplined, efficient and compact environment. A such its total cases probably represents most of actual which is almost certainly not the case here. 106 cases out of 6 million people in a densely populated urban environment is not a lot at all.

The unspoken assumption by everyone is that public health systems in the countries affected by coronavirus are all the same standard. Almost certainly they are not. I'd far, far rather be treated in a Singapore hospital than one in China or Iran

[PPMMUU]

2 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

How is the government explaining the unusual spike in pneumonia cases of almost 3k, and have these people been tested for the covid 19 virus to see if that caused it?

Please put the source here.

 

It is very possible that you have seen a "misunderstood report" that confuses PUIs for COVID with viral pneumonia cases just because the website is named /viralpneumonia because it was established when a mysterious viral pneumonia is spreading in Wuhan and no one know what is the cause.

[goatfarmer]

17 hours ago, KeeTua said:

The argument that it maybe Thailand's warmer climate contributes to the relatively few cases doesn't explain why Singapore has so many more cases reported.

 

Singapore population 6 million
As of March 1 - 106 cases

Thailand 70 million
As of March 5 - 47 cases

 

One thing that could set Thailand apart from some of the other Asian countries could be that the vast majority of the population live their lives outside of enclosed, air conditioned spaces. Government hospitals are open air affairs as are the typical clinics. Restaurants and shopping open air, homes with doors and windows open most of the time, no air-con. Philippines is similar with a low number of reported cases.

 

The website " Coronavirus disease 2019: Cases in Singapore" is very cool with it's timeline, too bad there isn't a similar one in Thailand:
https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

This argument assumes that reported cases are the total number of actual cases. This is nonsense. Read my post above. 

[simon43]

On 3/4/2020 at 5:20 PM, Sheryl said:

The problem with the grapevine is that it is rife with ridiculous rumors. And no way to distinguish fact from fiction. Even what starts out as fact, by the time it is repeated for the 5th time, has been greatly magnified and distorted.

Aptly known as "Chinese Whispers"!

[Boomer6969]

I have modelled the number of victims depending on the global infection rate (current estimates 40% to 70% of world population) and the mortality rate (current WHO estimate is 3.4). Interesting isn't?