Sharp increase in Covid-19 cases in Thai provinces 'cause for concern'

[kingstonkid]

The government were doing well until they let people go home to the country.  The best thing that they could have done was to mandate that people stay where they are and legislate country wide instead of leaving it to each city or province.

Keeping everyone in one locaction would have been a better idea but then again trying to stop everyone would have been a nightmare.

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, mberbae said:

Statistics in LOS have Always been suspect due to Self Interest Manipulation.

A prime example is that of the baht strength. Or , Tourism only amounts to 14% of GDP, where in

reality it is much closer to 27-30%.

The same goes for the COVID19 figures.

Not closing the borders to Chinese tourists over 6 weeks ago will come back to

haunt Thailand. The Horse is out of the barn now.

The Bright side is - We can ALL prevent further virus contamination though prudent actions.

Baht is loosing ground to the USD, up almost 4 baht per dollar since the beginning of the year....means my 800,000 baht I need in the bank for my extension will cost me less now...., but then there is the downside of it being worth less.....sigh

 

1 US Dollar = 33.02 Thai Baht

Last updated · March 23, 10:50 AM GMT+7

Edited March 23, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

The government were doing well until they let people go home to the country.  The best thing that they could have done was to mandate that people stay where they are and legislate country wide instead of leaving it to each city or province.

Keeping everyone in one locaction would have been a better idea but then again trying to stop everyone would have been a nightmare.

I believe that this was why they put the onus on the Governor's of each of the province's, making them responsible for their area's.  Just another passing of the buck, and a way to blame someone else when the other shoe drops....

Edited March 23, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[mike787]

Here we go...now it's our turn...

[Skallywag]

1 hour ago, englishoak said:

Unfortunately many more than just the elderly and weak will die, That is already known.

Where are healthy people, with no respiratory problems dying? 

Maybe several percent who have other underlying health conditions have died.

Have not heard of any healthy person dying

[Artisi]

16 hours ago, DLock said:

Well, you did nothing for the month of February, including no testing, and now you shut everything down, and those people exposed are now going home to establish new infection hubs.

 

...you didn't really think about this, did you?

Think, think, come on now - is that part of the culture? 

[Skallywag]

43 minutes ago, Susco said:

Coronavirus Cases:

337,570

view by country

Deaths:

14,655

Yes, 4% not 13% pretty simple math

[Russell17au]

2 hours ago, Aussie999 said:

 

RickTik "B. The true incubation period of COVID-19 is 28-35 days," wow, where did you get that from?

Here is a sample of 1 report on incubation which has that many different numbers it is impossible to tell what the actual incubation period is and there are many more with the same numbers.

Coronavirus Incubation Period:

Last updated: March 12, 15:00 GMT

2 - 14 days

Possible outliers: 0 - 27 days

Summary of findings:

2-14 days represents the current official estimated range for the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

However, a case with an incubation period of 27 days has been reported by Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 [12]

In addition, a case with an incubation period of 19 days was observed in a JAMA study of 5 cases published on Feb. 21. [13]

An outlier of a 24 days incubation period had been for the first time observed in a Feb. 9 study.[11] WHO said at the time that this could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and that it wasn't going to change its recommendations.

Period can vary greatly among patients.

scource:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

[steven100]

6 minutes ago, Artisi said:

If the army takes over, the little general will be out of work, no more soldier, no more PM and kicked off the base he is currently holed-up in. 

what nonsense are you babbling on about ....

Khun Prayut Chan O Cha is in charge and is the Prime Minister of Thailand.

[cmarshall]

16 hours ago, CLW said:

Pro-active and preventive thinking hardly to be found here...

 

Bus station Mor Chit was packed today.

 

 

 

What might look like poor public health judgments to those who don't understand Thai society is likely to be in large measure economic necessity.  A lot of the lower end workers in restaurants, stores, and shopping centers that have been closed up have lost their jobs with no other source of income in Bangkok.  Just as in the Tom Yum Goong Crisis of 1997 their traditional and perhaps sole recourse is to move in with family up country.  

[Denim]

15 hours ago, Max69xl said:

It seems you are not the sharpest knife in the drawer. If people in BKK have no work,how are they supposed to live? They need money for rent and food. Money they don't have. That's why they have to go back home. So don't talk about ignorance.

 

Nonetheless, obviously sharper than you.

 

We have several relatives returning to their various home villages around the country.  Nothing to do with shortage of money or food. Typically paying 2-3000 for non air conditioned rooms on or near industrial estates the rent is paid for the next month and they have the means to pay for the following month, Food is also not a big issue since they mostly eat cheap street food.

 

They are returning home because they can. Their places of work have been closed and there is nothing for them to do. Rather than sit in hot pokey room all day until who knows when , they have decided to go home where they can see relatives and not yet be confined to one room.

 

This is understandable but the medical facilities up country cannot match those of Bangkok and there are a whole lot of elderly and frail people wandering around without much idea of the gravity of the situation. How dreadful if a young worker going home to see mum and gran became the agent by whom they get infected with possibly fatal consequences.

 

No wonder the government is worried by this development since it knows that the provincial medical facilities could soon get swamped.

 

Luckily, my wifes own adult son has chosen not to return to his family in Ubon since he fears it would be too risky. More brains than most.

[Russell17au]

One of the biggest problems with Thailand is its culture. With the culture especially in the regional areas of Thailand the old people care for the babies while the middle aged and young people go to Bangkok and other places to earn money to support their families unlike the western culture of its ok my parents will get social welfare from the government. Now the big problem is that with all those that are now out of work in the big cities returning home to the elderly parents whose health is not great because of the living standards and the lack of decent medical care for those old people that live in the remote villages. Now the younger ones are returning home on crowded buses and they will take this filthy virus home with them to give to their parents who will die from it but there is no medical checks on these people who die to see what they have died from instead they are laid out for the whole village to come and see and then taken to the local temple for the cremation service. The mortality percentages mean nothing as they do not take into account the demographics of each country and also they like all governments can not come up with the accurate figure, because of different cultures and the way things are reported. In Thailand there is no medical examination of anyone who dies in a remote village.

[metisdead]

A post using a disallowed reference to the PM and the replies have been removed. 

[bstafford214]

16 hours ago, CGW said:

I hope you are wrong, but they are prime candidates for sure, their respiratory systems are not going to be in great shape with all the pollution & smoking, poor diets and poor living conditions. ????

I disagree with "their own ignorance" they are not very well informed nor have they ever been, but the end result will be the same.

I think it is more of an education they did not properly get. The education they get is to deny anything and everything and not loose face, ooh and don't forget about only care about money. Sorry if I sound mean or sarcastic, but this is what I have seen here for over 15 years here.

Edited March 23, 2020 by bstafford214

[CGW]

1 minute ago, bstafford214 said:

The education they get is to deny anything and everything and not loose face, ooh and don't forget about only care about money.

We see it different ???? 

Easy to kick people when they are down, try helping them up instead, much more fulfilling ???? 

[Dr Rodrigues Pereira]

10 % in Italy ! How do you dropp the zero is beyond my understanding  ...

 

[natway09]

Again, with the vast numbers moving so will the virus travel on the host to all the countryside.

Not sure the officials care as long as it makes Bangkok safer.

It will be interesting to see if a movement ban (apart from essential services ) comes into effect.

This would stop them coming back in the forseeable future

[Russell17au]

53 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Where are healthy people, with no respiratory problems dying? 

Maybe several percent who have other underlying health conditions have died.

Have not heard of any healthy person dying

How about the 39yo American woman who was told by her doctor that she was a low risk category because of her age and fitness and he did not do a test on her for several days and she died on the kitchen floor from covid-19 symptoms.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/39yo-in-good-health-dies-suddenly-with-covid-19-symptoms/ar-BB11wC1K?li=BBS2yio

[Saltire]

Just watching Ch7 with the wife right now.

 

Every bus station and many border crossings absolutely jammed. Train and boat too where appropriate. Yes there are thousands going home to the provinces, but the process is going to take days if not weeks. Many will be sleeping rough at the bus stations in the hope that tomorrow they can get a seat. Recipe for more disasters.

 

I my village they have been returning for the last week or so, many new faces.

 

One of our neighbours is waiting on her 3 offspring returning, all stuck at Mo Chit with no chance of transport today.

 

Fortunately our neighbour is smarter than the average village wifie and has alredy told them when they get home they will be quarantined for 2 weeks in her propety. Have to say I think she got lambasted enough over the weeks by my wife's advice that she is onboard. We are both in self isolation now. They gosssip from 10 feet accross the fence wearing masks ????

[Caldera]

17 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

Hate to say it, and would hate to see it, but I have a feeling Thailand may lose one-fifth of their population before this is through, mostly because of their own ignorance. 

How on Earth did you come up with that nonsensical figure? I could guess where you pulled it from, but it wouldn't be polite to write that!

 

The situation is grave enough without sensationalist scaremongering. Shame on you.

 

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Where are healthy people, with no respiratory problems dying? 

Maybe several percent who have other underlying health conditions have died.

Have not heard of any healthy person dying

The news is out there. I can only mention certain cases I have read about but for sure it is there. A 47 year old paramedic died in Italy, always wore protective gear and no underlying health conditions. 37 year old civil guard died in Spain. Just read of a girl in her 20s dying for sure it is happening.

[Skallywag]

12 minutes ago, Russell17au said:

How about the 39yo American woman who was told by her doctor that she was a low risk category because of her age and fitness and he did not do a test on her for several days and she died on the kitchen floor from covid-19 symptoms.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/39yo-in-good-health-dies-suddenly-with-covid-19-symptoms/ar-BB11wC1K?li=BBS2yio

Inconclusive as of yet they have not tested her.  Dying with Covid19 "symptoms" 

Same as Swine flu or Avian flu symptoms AFAIK, which kill 45,000 -  60,000 Americans every year .  https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Either way, not something that should happen to a healthy 39 year old

Thanks for the reply

Edited March 23, 2020 by Skallywag

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Yes, 4% not 13% pretty simple math

Yes when looking at the total cases that have not run there course it is like 4%. However, the closed case fatality rate is currently 13%, which is alarming. It had dropped to around 6% and then shot up as it exploded in Europe and the US.

[bstafford214]

34 minutes ago, CGW said:

We see it different ???? 

Easy to kick people when they are down, try helping them up instead, much more fulfilling ???? 

Tried that mate. I am an educator and taught English in Nakhon Si Thammarat for 8 years. During that time the administrators only cared about the students getting passing grades and moving to the next level. I had so many students I tried to help because they couldn't read. Countless hours of tutoring and most either did not show up or didn't care. The system is not good and the problems start at home. Don't give advice to people when you don't know them. Not sure what you see different, maybe your head is in the sand.

[Rod the Sod]

Lets do some very basis maths. It isn't perfect because I have not drilled down to world averages per age group and splits between male and female, but it is a simple analysis based upon just 2 assumptions. You can play with the numbers to fit your own assumptions. My numbers are strictly limited to the 55 and over segment.

 

Firstly some facts:

 

Total Population of Thailand.       68,615,858 (July 2018 est.)
Age structure	0-14 years: 16.73% (male 5,880,026 /female 5,598,611) 15-24 years: 13.83% (male 4,840,303 /female 4,649,589) 25-54 years: 46.12% (male 15,670,881 /female 15,972,254) 55-64 years: 12.35% (male 3,970,979 /female 4,503,647) 65 years and over: 10.97% (male 3,289,576 /female 4,239,992) (2018 est.)

 

Now the assumptions:

1. 50% of people aged over 55 get CV 2. 25% of these will die   Risk Assessment: 1. 8,002,097 in this age bracket will get infected 2. 2,000,524 will die   That is 2.91% of the population. You have to deduct the number of people who would have died of another cause within the same time frame.   If through Government sponsored measures we keep it down to 15% that are infected then the death total in this age group would be 600,157 or 0.87% of the population.

[DefaultName]

They closed the workplaces of these people, they now have no reason to stick around and living is cheaper upcountry.  What did they think would happen?

[RichardColeman]

17 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

Hate to say it, and would hate to see it, but I have a feeling Thailand may lose one-fifth of their population before this is through, mostly because of their own ignorance. 

Stupidity I think is a better word.

 

Though I would aim that comment at the government hiding the true scale of the figures to promote tourism to the very end at the expense of the usurped people

[Grusa]

17 hours ago, CLW said:

Pro-active and preventive thinking hardly to be found here...

 

Bus station Mor Chit was packed today.

 

 

Strange.  I was there on Tisday and it was empty.

 

Returned from Ekkamai, it was empty too, and hardly any buses running to Pattaya, had to wait 1½hours (17:45)

[Peterphuket]

10 minutes ago, DefaultName said:

They closed the workplaces of these people, they now have no reason to stick around and living is cheaper upcountry.  What did they think would happen?

I think after 9 months many baby's are born.

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

1 hour ago, Susco said:

Coronavirus Cases:

337,570

view by country

Deaths:

14,655

Yes, 4% not 13% pretty simple math

The case fatality rate or CFR is deaths/(recovered+deaths) or just deaths/(closed cases). This number roughly tells you your odds if you get it at this time.

 

IOW, you can't say a patient in the hospital has a 0% change of dying.  The good news is as we get better at treating people this number would be expected to come down. It could also go up if hospitals overflow. This is the main reason to slow the pandemic. Flatten the curve. It's a good idea.