A NEW SUGGESTED METHOD TO FIGHT THE PANDEMIC

[ILANB]

Overcoming the Covid-19 Pandemic Through a Controlled Virus Contraction -
A New Idea for a controlled active strategy in addition to the traditional defensive approach - Isolate, Test, Treat (ITT)
 

The Current defensive approach around the Globe of: Isolate, Test and Treat (ITT) may fail in the long run from the following reasons:

 

1. The longer the pandemic will span over time, the harder it will be to keep the population under lockdown restrictions due to an economic collapse. 

2. The moment the authorities will have to ease the restrictive measures, the Covid-19 Pandemic may outbreak again because no immunity has been built into the major part of the population and no 100% screening and isolating a single virus carrier is possible.

3. Under the above two conditions it is a matter of time until most of the Severely-Infected-Countries will risk to face the devastating un-controlled conditions where the healthcare systems and facilities are saturated with patients crying for help and can no longer cope with the mass  (see the Italian/Spanish cases)

 
 

The Suggested method is based on the following assumptions:

1. Whoever had and recovered from the Covid-19 is naturally immune against a second contraction, at least against the current virus strain.
   (evidence on the validity of this assumption is now slowly emerging from the Chinese experience)

2. The death rate among young people under 30 is lower than 0.2% and expected to be even lower among young people with no background illnesses.

3. The contraction of at least 70% of the world population is inevitable and expected anyways!

 

The Goals of the suggested approach:

• To reduce the chance of a collapsing healthcare system under the inevitable and unprecedented expected number of patients load.

• To increase the natural immunity among the population in a controlled manner and in a social organized method.

• To reduce the uncontrolled and chaotic spread of the disease among the general population, especially among the risk groups and elderly people.

• To enforce and support the healthcare teams under the expected unusual patients load

• Altogether to overcome in a shorter time the Covid-19 pandemic

 

The Method: 

Stage 1 - Feasibility Pilot:

1.  The initiation of building/renting isolated facilities national/regional wide, where hundreds of young volunteers will deliberately and purposefully be infected with the Covid-19 virus under Medical Surveillance ***.
   (The majority of those young volunteers will pass the illness phase with minor symptoms or none at all)

2. During the time of the isolation, the volunteers will be trained to perform essential social tasks aiming to fight and ease the pandemic.  

3. After a full recovery and immunity tests, the Corona Fighters will return to their communities and be assigned and engaged in different essential social tasks like supporting the sick people and/or supporting the medical health care teams at their different tasks.

4. Government support, or various financial  benefits will be bestowed as an option upon the Corona Fighters Volunteers as incentives as well as different social rewards and patriotic and national reputation.

 

*** A nationwide campaign calling for volunteers among the target group of young people who recovered from the Illness and found healthy, can be utilized instead. (or/and) 

*** Or the initiation of voluntary isolated “Get-Corona” Centers, calling the younger population under 35 to voluntarily to come and get sick.
After a full recovery, giving them the permission to go back to their lives and occupation free from the lock down restrictions, in this way, enlivening the economy again.

 

Comments:

It is well known that the more a population includes immune people among its members, the less is the likelihood of an uncontrolled epidemic outbreak to reoccur!

 

The proposed method reminds of the British approach in the first days of the Pandemic however our method is utterly different due to the following reasons:

Offers far more control over the contraction phase and a major advantage in separating young from old population at the illness phase.

Separating in due time, large groups of young people at the contamination phase other than spreading the virus uncontrolled among the general population and infecting large groups of people: family members, risk groups members and elderly people.

At the recovery stage, we know and we can monitor exactly who is immune and no more infecting and assign/recruit their help within the community fighting the pandemic.

 

Stage 2 - Large scale operation:

After the success of Stage 1 is measured and the risk/gain factor is assessed and approved, the door for recursive operation is open:

Repeat Stage 1 with a greater number of young people and after a full recovery, let them return back to their families and their communities immune against the Covid-19,
spreading immunity and support among the population instead of spreading the virus uncontrolled.

 

With this new proactive Approach together with the ITT traditional approach we can maybe help to avoid the looming catastrophe at the horizon approaching us as a human family on this planet.

-----------------------------------------

End of the method.

-----------------------------------------
Please read the additional important comments below:

 

Supplementary comments:

 

1. It is clear that the suggested approach naturally raises severe ethical and moral questions and it will be altogether better to neglect it and avoid using it if a better solution will be found.

2. If the Pandemic toll increases at its geometric proportions -  as we witness today as of 24th. of March - and provided there is no other better creative solution at hand, the suggested method needs to be considered seriously under the light and this gloomy prospect!

3. It is important to remember that under the situation, where the healthcare facilities are suffering from a devastating shortage in manpower, every hand of an immune volunteer - even not professionally trained - will be a saving-life hand and help!

4. Humanity has survived countless pandemics due to its adaptive immune system. Since we are all leaving in a relatively new and unprecedented time of fast connectivity between countries, nations and people, we are witnessing in horror the fastest-spread-ever! of a global scale pandemic.
   Hence, we should not wait this time, for the natural pace of the human immunity system to adapt but act and direct our immune system proactively now!
    

Important Notice:
The Method suggested above needs to be approved by professionals in public health before any considerations - the Authors of this document are not professionals in medicine nor in public health.

 

Authors:
Ilan Bernhard and Ran Simantov / ISRAEL
-------------------------------------------------------
Please share this link until it reaches Thai Decision Makers:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Rsp5wf8k4Csl0TLToAQc-xhDwpQCqa5qnaJiZW1QHmU/edit?usp=sharing 
 

 

[Chazar]

heres  another  idea, why  not  ban  all  the  wet  markets impose  huge  sentencing  for wildlife  trading etc  etc and  generally improve  some  of the  disgusting habits  that  prevail in  some  countries

[steven100]

30 minutes ago, ILANB said:

where hundreds of young volunteers will deliberately and purposefully be infected

good luck with that one ..... 

[lust]

You don’t get immunity after being infected... people have gotten the virus more than once.

[Orton Rd]

That would be too long for the prime minister to read

[Curt1591]

2 hours ago, ILANB said:

Important Notice:
The Method suggested above needs to be approved by professionals in public health before any considerations - the Authors of this document are not professionals in medicine nor in public health.

 

[geriatrickid]

I ask that the purveyors of this  garbage stop promoting this and stick to their computer game business.

It is not based on scientific fact and  is a position repudiated by  the people who  specialize in infectious diseases and the causative agents of those diseases. 

 

It is a flawed proposal that ignores the fact that young people are just as likely to suffer serious illness and long term injury as  older. One need only look at the data from Canada and  the  USA to see a very different demographic suffering.

 

Absolutely disgusting and immoral. Sad to say, the proposal is morally bankrupt and is plain evil.

[lust]

5 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

First part ... Incorrect ... it is reasonable to assume a high degree of immunity from this strain of the virus ... this has been the case with all viruses ... even the much scarier Ebola.

 

Second part ... true but misleading ... some people appear to have been re-infected ... the numbers are very small ... research continues and it is not yet clear if event #2 involved the same strain of the virus as event #1 ... and the small number of cases make this task difficult ... we may not know for a long time

 

In any case, there will always be some degree of potential re-infection in a very small number of cases where the human antibodies produced by event #1 fail for various reasons to provide complete protection. Even vaccines cannot guarantee that.

Do some research..

[donnacha]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Absolutely disgusting and immoral. Sad to say, the proposal is morally bankrupt and is plain evil.

Hyperbole does not help. We should be discussing all the options without jumping straight to personal insults.

Perhaps a better way to frame the OP's proposal is to say that we should be identifying as many of the vulnerable as possible and devoting our limited resources to completely isolating them, giving them all they need to completely avoid exposure while living in comfort.

Meanwhile, let everyone else continue to work. There is no need to deliberately infect anyone. The outbreak will spread anyway.

The current "full lockdown" approach is deeply flawed, because our focus is issuing instructions that people don't have the discipline to follow properly, and on breaking up groups of young idiots who seem to think this is a good time to hang out and party. There are simply too many people to enforce a real lockdown, and all these idiots are bringing the virus back to the vulnerable in their families. This broad, watered down lockdown is just theatre, it will not really protect anyone.

Again, devote all resources to getting the vulnerable OUT of shared habitation and into requisitioned apartments and condos. Provide them with everything they need. Treat them like royalty.

Hopefully, after six months, the fitter members of society will mostly have gained immunity. Some will have died, but probably no more than would have died anyway. The difference is that the vulnerable have been PROPERLY protected, and now emerge into a situation in which the second wave of the virus cannot gain traction because too many people are now immune.

 

[lust]

2 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

best you can do?

You’re only a simple google search away from enlightenment. Don’t be so lazy.

[geriatrickid]

26 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

First part ... Incorrect ... it is reasonable to assume a high degree of immunity from this strain of the virus ... this has been the case with all viruses ... even the much scarier Ebola.

 

Second part ... true but misleading ... some people appear to have been re-infected ... the numbers are very small ... research continues and it is not yet clear if event #2 involved the same strain of the virus as event #1 ... and the small number of cases make this task difficult ... we may not know for a long time

 

In any case, there will always be some degree of potential re-infection in a very small number of cases where the human antibodies produced by event #1 fail for various reasons to provide complete protection. Even vaccines cannot guarantee that.

You are not in a position to declare that the position was incorrect because it was based on scientific fact. There is no evidence to demonstrate  immunity from  the virus. In  the life sciences we deal in demonstrable fact. In the previous SARS and MERS pandemics there was no immunity of significance following recovery. You make an assumption in the absence of evidence. There may be short term immunity, but that is typical of  some other illnesses. If we were given immunity folowing infection, why then do recovered people infected by corona viruses not have  immunity?  Are you immune to corona caused colds?

 

Take chances with your own life, not with those who are vulnerable and at risk.

 

 

 

 

17 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Hyperbole does not help. We should be discussing all the options without jumping straight to personal insults.

Perhaps a better way to frame the OP's proposal is to say that we should be identifying as many of the vulnerable as possible and devoting our limited resources to completely isolating them, giving them all they need to completely avoid exposure while living in comfort.

Meanwhile, let everyone else continue to work. There is no need to deliberately infect anyone. The outbreak will spread anyway.

The current "full lockdown" approach is deeply flawed, because our focus is issuing instructions that people don't have the discipline to follow properly, and on breaking up groups of young idiots who seem to think this is a good time to hang out and party. There are simply too many people to enforce a real lockdown, and all these idiots are bringing the virus back to the vulnerable in their families. This broad, watered down lockdown is just theatre, it will not really protect anyone.

Again, devote all resources to getting the vulnerable OUT of shared habitation and into requisitioned apartments and condos. Provide them with everything they need. Treat them like royalty.

Hopefully, after six months, the fitter members of society will mostly have gained immunity. Some will have died, but probably no more than would have died anyway. The difference is that the vulnerable have been PROPERLY protected, and now emerge into a situation in which the second wave of the virus cannot gain traction because too many people are now immune.

 

The proposal is not an option. It is not founded on scientific fact.  It proposes using young people as "test subjects". You have ignored the infection data from the USA, Canada and the UK. YOung people are on respirators and some when they recover, have serious lung damage. It is unethical to expose people to such  risk.  This isn't game theory. Jased Kushner may be impressed, but  people with a background in the life sciences are disgusted. The proposal  is morally bankrupt because it is predicated on choosing who will live and who will die. This isn't the selection line  at a concentration camp.  The concept  violates  the most basic principals of the sanctity of life . I'll make it simpler: If this abhorrent plan was put before a clinical trial ethics review  board, two calls would be made; The first would be to the trial sponsor to reject  it and the Second would be to the  regulatory authorities to file a breach of ethics complaint.

It is absolutely disgusting and immoral.  It is morally bankrupt and evil.  This is something I would expect of Josef Mengele.

[NCC1701A]

4 hours ago, ILANB said:

where hundreds of young volunteers will deliberately and purposefully be infected

I did six tours of duty in Pattaya and survived. Time for some else to pick up the torch.

[donnacha]

 

15 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

It proposes using young people as "test subjects".

I suggested no such thing.

Your hysteria and ad hominem attacks have no place in the discussion of such a serious situation.

 

If you think the current approach is protecting anyone you are severely mistaken. I see it here in Europe every day. It is not working because almost no-one is actually achieving proper isolation.

What you think you are arguing against is already happening because people are people. Any government's reach is limited, they need to focus everything on properly isolating the vulnerable because, right now, precious few people are actually achieving the necessary level of isolation. 
 

[ILANB]

2 hours ago, lust said:

You’re only a simple google search away from enlightenment. Don’t be so lazy.

Why not share a link we all read the same page?

[ILANB]

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The proposal is not an option. It is not founded on scientific fact.  It proposes using young people as "test subjects". You have ignored the infection data from the USA, Canada and the UK. YOung people are on respirators and some when they recover, have serious lung damage. It is unethical to expose people to such  risk.  This isn't game theory. Jased Kushner may be impressed, but  people with a background in the life sciences are disgusted. The proposal  is morally bankrupt because it is predicated on choosing who will live and who will die. This isn't the selection line  at a concentration camp.  The concept  violates  the most basic principals of the sanctity of life . I'll make it simpler: If this abhorrent plan was put before a clinical trial ethics review  board, two calls would be made; The first would be to the trial sponsor to reject  it and the Second would be to the  regulatory authorities to file a breach of ethics complaint.

It is absolutely disgusting and immoral.  It is morally bankrupt and evil.  This is something I would expect of Josef Mengele.

At first, I was thinking to ignore your personal attack and try and answer your arguments, but when I came across the line about "Josef Mengele" I understood it would be a waist of time and energy.

[stephenterry]

14 minutes ago, ILANB said:

At first, I was thinking to ignore your personal attack and try and answer your arguments, but when I came across the line about "Josef Mengele" I understood it would be a waist of time and energy.

waste of time, not waist. If you want people to discuss this proposal you do have to engage with them, as others reading may not have closed minds to alternatives.

 

Having said that, risking young volunteers lives is hardly acceptable in most modern societies, and is extremely unlikely that any government would sanction this approach.

 

What could be acceptable is to contact young people who had survived an infection to undertake medical tests on how their immune system vanquished the virus. It could lead to a quicker antidote to it. 

[Ventenio]

and then after another Chinese wet market outbreak we might have COVID-20 and 21 until 99

 

and we will be in permanent lock down as people try to eat bats mixed with poisonous frogs and shark teeth and dinosaur bones.

 

countries better sue China after all this mess

[ILANB]

2 hours ago, stephenterry said:

waste of time, not waist. If you want people to discuss this proposal you do have to engage with them, as others reading may not have closed minds to alternatives.

 

Having said that, risking young volunteers lives is hardly acceptable in most modern societies, and is extremely unlikely that any government would sanction this approach.

 

What could be acceptable is to contact young people who had survived an infection to undertake medical tests on how their immune system vanquished the virus. It could lead to a quicker antidote to it. 

Volunteers taking a risk -  is the basic principal of any rescue and saving-lives team or organization.
I agree that under normal circumstances the above proposal is a bad idea and should be altogether rejected! - and I wrote it clearly in the comments at the end of the post.
HOWEVER, we are not at all under the normal circumstances! - We all sit locked at home, watching the emergency teams/facilities collapsing one after the other - one country after the other losing control of the situation (Italy first now Spain) and we start to witness horrible happenings that were hardly imaginable yesterday in "most modern societies" - Parents & Elderly homes are abandoned and left to their own fate hence to die! (see link below)
If we will be prepared with volunteers - that are immune to the virus or say less susceptible to catch it again- we would see less sights like this while freeing the emergency teams to help many others.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52014023
 

"Spanish soldiers helping to fight the coronavirus pandemic have found elderly patients in retirement homes abandoned and, in some cases, dead in their beds, the defence ministry has said."

[stephenterry]

ILANB read my third paragraph again. I could concur with that as a way forward.

[DrTuner]

The higher number of people are infected, the greater the chance the virus mutates to something more potent. Something to consider before thinking of deliberately trying to force herd immunity.

[ILANB]

1 hour ago, stephenterry said:

ILANB read my third paragraph again. I could concur with that as a way forward.

Yes, Thank you... I agree with that of course. This option would be better of course - and its a part of my proposal alternatives under a *** comment btw.-
however I am not sure there is yet a solution to test healthy people whether they got the virus and recovered. 

[ILANB]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The higher number of people are infected, the greater the chance the virus mutates to something more potent. Something to consider before thinking of deliberately trying to force herd immunity.

True that should be an important consideration and its a part of the preliminary conditions or assumptions the concept is based on.
However I am afraid we have not enough time to full proof scientifically every detail...but, there are already some evidence based on testing samples from different countries and based already on a considerable amount of cases, that the virus doesn't mutate that much.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/
Since the start of the pandemic, the virus hasn’t changed in any obviously important ways. It’s mutating in the way that all viruses do. But of the 100-plus mutations that have been documented, none has risen to dominance, which suggests that none is especially important. “The virus has been remarkably stable given how much transmission we’ve seen,” says Lisa Gralinski of the University of North Carolina. “That makes sense, because there’s no evolutionary pressure on the virus to transmit better. It’s doing a great job of spreading around the world right now.”

[ILANB]

9 hours ago, donnacha said:

It suggested no such thing.

Your hysteria and ad hominem attacks have no place in the discussion of such a serious situation.

 

If you think the current approach is protecting anyone you are severely mistaken. I see it here in Europe every day. It is not working because almost no-one is actually achieving proper isolation.

What you think you are arguing against is already happening because people are people. Any government's reach is limited, they need to focus everything on properly isolating the vulnerable because, right now, precious few people are actually achieving the necessary level of isolation. 
 

This is more or less the reality also in my country currently - Actually the vulnerable mainly get infected during the usual care for their needs, or infected in-house by their most dear ones - children and grandchildren.
Isolating the elderly and the vulnerable will probably have worse consequences in life-toll then isolating young people who rather get the corona under medical surveillance (an option), get over with it, then go back to life/work or support the pandemic fight than to sit lock indoors useless - theoretically 18 month at least, until a vaccine is available....
After few weeks like this, nothing will be left from the life as we use to know it.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, ILANB said:

True that should be an important consideration and its a part of the preliminary conditions or assumptions the concept is based on.
However I am afraid we have not enough time to full proof scientifically every detail...but, there are already some evidence based on testing samples from different countries and based already on a considerable amount of cases, that the virus doesn't mutate that much.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/
Since the start of the pandemic, the virus hasn’t changed in any obviously important ways. It’s mutating in the way that all viruses do. But of the 100-plus mutations that have been documented, none has risen to dominance, which suggests that none is especially important. “The virus has been remarkably stable given how much transmission we’ve seen,” says Lisa Gralinski of the University of North Carolina. “That makes sense, because there’s no evolutionary pressure on the virus to transmit better. It’s doing a great job of spreading around the world right now.”

There is one thing that does worry me regarding mutations, it's the furin targets: http://www.virology.ws/2020/02/13/furin-cleavage-site-in-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-glycoprotein/

 

Where did that piece of RNA come from? Did it pass through a human that was infected with something else and pick it up? Completely unknown, but it seems it's been there from the start.

[geriatrickid]

9 hours ago, ILANB said:

At first, I was thinking to ignore your personal attack and try and answer your arguments, but when I came across the line about "Josef Mengele" I understood it would be a waist of time and energy.

My position is no different than the response you have received in  Israel. Your proposal is based on factually incorrect statements and deceitful assumptions.  You ignore the fact that the case  data in North America and the UK shows that young people are suffering serious injury.  When they survive, they have lung damage. You should stick to video games and leave medical science to people with an education.  Here is a dose of reality that will further dent your ego; There isn't one  reputable medical researcher, not one public health scientist, not one infectious disease  expert who  supports your diabolical experiment.

 

Your proposal is morally bankrupt because it ignores the fact that  the cohort group you wish to use for this live experiment will suffer significant adverse  events. If I ran a clinical trial in this manner I would be charged with criminal negligence. Your proposal violates every  clinical trial ethical standard.  The reference to mengele is valid because he used live specimens to further his unsound and evil experiments. Couching your  proposal in politically correct terms and seeking cover with  volunteers or medical supervision does not make it any less wrong. No medical professional would associate with your experiment because it is an illegal and unethical proposal. You are advocating an unsound  experiment.

 

We do not subject  humans to experiments where we know there is a high risk of long term injury or death. This is a medical ethics and legal fact. You want the world to throw away the most vital of ethical and legal principles.  

[geriatrickid]

3 hours ago, ILANB said:

This is more or less the reality also in my country currently - Actually the vulnerable mainly get infected during the usual care for their needs, or infected in-house by their most dear ones - children and grandchildren.
Isolating the elderly and the vulnerable will probably have worse consequences in life-toll then isolating young people who rather get the corona under medical surveillance (an option), get over with it, then go back to life/work or support the pandemic fight than to sit lock indoors useless - theoretically 18 month at least, until a vaccine is available....
After few weeks like this, nothing will be left from the life as we use to know it.

The reason why the infection spread in Israel is because  people refused to comply with the most basic of requests for social distancing. People refused to change their behaviour. Because of that, they  are infected or infected others. You know very well there were multiple cases of people asked to self quarantine and instead they attacked the public health nurse who came to  make the request. The videos are online and disgusting. Much of the  disease spread in Israel came from returning travelers who refused to self isolate and instead went about their community spreading the disease. Selfish people who cared only for themselves.   Israel is not alone in that respect as  it is what  has spread the illness in the UK, Australia, Canada and the USA. The illness could have been contained if there had been less selfishness and more consideration for the common good.  That's the reality.  Correct that mentality and respect social distancing and you would see a significant impact within a few weeks.  Social distancing is the therapeutic treatment, but some people refuse to comply. It is simple but selfish people want immediate  solutions.

[lamyai3]

20 hours ago, ILANB said:

The Current defensive approach around the Globe of: Isolate, Test and Treat (ITT) may fail in the long run

Much better is the local approach - wait to see if the hot weather gets rid of it, and if not: Test, Isolate and Treat (TIT) 

[ILANB]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

The reason why the infection spread in Israel is because  people refused to comply with the most basic of requests for social distancing. People refused to change their behaviour. Because of that, they  are infected or infected others. You know very well there were multiple cases of people asked to self quarantine and instead they attacked the public health nurse who came to  make the request. The videos are online and disgusting. Much of the  disease spread in Israel came from returning travelers who refused to self isolate and instead went about their community spreading the disease. Selfish people who cared only for themselves.   Israel is not alone in that respect as  it is what  has spread the illness in the UK, Australia, Canada and the USA. The illness could have been contained if there had been less selfishness and more consideration for the common good.  That's the reality.  Correct that mentality and respect social distancing and you would see a significant impact within a few weeks.  Social distancing is the therapeutic treatment, but some people refuse to comply. It is simple but selfish people want immediate  solutions.

Here you have a point - I must agree there have been too many cases like these... and I regret it like you.
But like you mention that happen more less all over and I think much because at the beginning many "experts" were trying to calm down the public calling the new virus "another kind of flu" or "just a flu" ect..
There is a little point in going back finding who's to blame... the point is we are dealing with EVERYONE and with ALL CULTURES! we can not expect 100% compliance.
Even if we get 99%... this nasty virus needs only the 1% in order to outbreak and spread again.  

[ILANB]

20 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

Much better is the local approach - wait to see if the hot weather gets rid of it, and if not: Test, Isolate and Treat (TIT) 

Actually that's my hope too that the coming summer will, at least, slowdown the thing...
read today somewhere (cant find it) that an interesting link to Vitamin D deficiencies in north Italy might be the cause of the substantial differences in death-rates between north and south.
please read here too:
https://www.who.int/elena/titles/vitamind_pneumonia_children/en/
I trust the Sun too...

[ukrules]

18 hours ago, lust said:

You don’t get immunity after being infected... people have gotten the virus more than once.

Lol,  ????