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Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference


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Posted

Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference

 

4pm.jpg

Picture: Sanook

 

A deputy in charge of battling the Covid-19 crisis in Thailand has told the Thai people that their behavior can make a big difference to how many people get infected. 

 

He has also debunked claims online that Italians have suffered so badly because they wear shoes in the house. 

 

Dr Thanarak Phaliphat gave three scenarios for the spread of the virus in April:

 

Scenario 1: If Thais didn't follow rules and practice social distancing there would be 24-25,000 cases. 

 

Scenario 2: Social distancing practised and 50% of the rules would mean 17,000 cases. 

 

Scenario 3: Social distancing and 80% compliance would lead to 7,000 cases. 

 

Dr Thanarak said that these figures were not meant to worry Thais, but show by acting responsibly they could make a difference. 

 

He also dismissed ideas circulating in Thailand that Italians were suffering badly because the infection was spread on shoes they wore in their houses.

 

He said this was nonsense. He stressed that the disease is spread through droplets that come into contact and enter the body through the eyes, nose and mouth.

 

Source: Sanook

 

 

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-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-04-01
  • Like 1
Posted
40 minutes ago, smedly said:

 

WHO and experts around the world are very clear about this - MASSIVE TESTING IS PARAMOUNT to controlling this virus 

 

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case I'm in complete agreement with you though.. 

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!! 

 

  • Heart-broken 1
Posted
21 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case I'm in complete agreement with you though.. 

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!! 

 

Germany 500,000/day.

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, smedly said:

how will they detect the infections if they are not testing in any significant numbers  

To be fair he didn't mention that they would be "detected" but rather that there would "be" that many infections,sounds like he is treading carefully.

Posted
2 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!!

No comprendez. Sorry, don't understand this statement.

Posted
3 minutes ago, stouricks said:

No comprendez. Sorry, don't understand this statement.

 

Why not ??

 

If you only test 500 people a day, then by the end of April worse case scenario can only be 6000 cases.. If they all test positive !!

 

Comprendez ??

 

  • Haha 2
Posted
1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Why not ??

 

If you only test 500 people a day, then by the end of April worse case scenario can only be 6000 cases.. If they all test positive !!

 

Comprendez ??

 

Sorry, did not realise you mean testing 500 every day until end of April. What a Fool I am.   

Posted

 

25,000, in a "best case" scenario, is more likely the number of deaths that will result.

 

Approximately 1 in every 2700 people.

 

I give that guestimated figure because UK is "hoping" for best case 20,000 or less deaths.

 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, webfact said:

He has also debunked claims online that Italians have suffered so badly because they wear shoes in the house. 

Evidence of the collective Thai neural network going into overdrive right here..

Posted
3 hours ago, SkyFax said:

laboratory_network023a.jpg.a5f7b3eb2b37f54b5fb5c9e7189a9db3.jpg

So those laboratories could do testing in theory. 

Would be interesting how much of them are conducting lab tests right now and where's the bottleneck?

 

Equipment, reagents, staff???

 

Approximately 500 tests per day are hilarious (green column, orange is backlog / pending).

IMG_20200329_141014.jpg

  • Like 1
Posted
6 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference

The hypothetical numbers are decreasing, a few days ago there was talk of over 30,000, it would be better to wait and see where this "epidemic" takes us ...

Posted

Songkran will be the real test if Thai people are sensible and stay put it will definately help,if it is buisness as usual,expect a large spike in the weeks after. I know it is officially banned but most people travel back to their home town's village to drink,eat,and party,for the 4 days,sure they may attend the parade but that is 1 day out of four.

Posted

Hollywood did a good job with movies like "Outbreak" and "Contagion" because

everybody obviously believes that these movies have anything to do with reality !

 

A 5 minute research would tell everybody that a VIRUS just does not behave like this !!!

 

This whole thing is based on the idea of UNLIMITED exponential growth which NATURE never does !

Every tree grows exponential ... until it stops growing !

 

20,000 people die in Germany EVERY YEAR from infections caused in hospitals !

2,500 people in Germany die every day on average !

Nobody thinks about these numbers because they are never in the media !

 

Now people are scared of 25,000 CASES at a mortality rate of 0.1% = 25 people !!!

 

There are more people dying from falling out of bed than from this Scandemic !!!

Posted
10 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case,

 

 

 Links ...

Posted
20 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has told the Thai people that their behavior can make a big difference to how many people

While foriengers will be blamed (again) if the numbers rise.

Posted

The thermometer being used in the picture in the OP is a cheap Chinese made POS, not meant for testing body temperature and will be wildly inaccurate, and will even not be able to accurately tell whether people have a fever. 

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