COVID-19 And Heat

[Mung]

There are now known to be several strains of the virus confirmed, 8 in total as of now in fact. This is actually seen as a slow mutation. 
Originally countries in South East Asia saw a somewhat slow escalation in infection in retrospect, and this was attributed to the climate. The probably was true seeing as Thailand was the second country to have the virus, and yet hospitals were not rammed (more than usual) and people weren't dying on the streets. However I propose at least 1 strain has become more resilient to the heat and this is the strain responsible now for an uptick in cases in Israel, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and so on. This is total speculation,  but I did notice and see a dramatic change in events when Italy and Iran started to get insane figures racking up. It seemed like a different beast entirely, and now that have transferred over to Europe and possibly in Asia now too. Yes more testing is being conducted in certain countries, but places like Singapore were always testing. 

Israel has a temperature of around 30 degrees this time of year, they have seen 420 plus new cases as of yesterday. UAE 240 plus new cases, Qatar 250 plus cases, Texas state 450 cases, Florida state 840 new cases and so on. I think it's time to stop hiding behind a vail of hope that the climate will save the day, because let's not forget that is exactly what Trump did. He claimed that it would miraculously disappear in the Spring due to a rise in temperature, today the US has seen over 25,000 new cases in a single day. 
What are your thoughts on the climate and COVID-19?

Edited April 4, 2020 by Mung

[AlexRich]

I don’t think climate makes much difference. Countries like Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have more experience on epidemics and have learned a great deal from previous mistakes. So they are more on the ball than western countries ... although Germany and Norway have made a decent effort. Sweden will be an interesting case study after this is done and dusted. 

[jacob29]

When I see Malaysia has slightly lower growth rates than Spain or Italy, I think the simpler explanation is it spreads a little slower in hot climates (this can account for most of what we're seeing, without invoking separate strains). Not even necessarily temperature dependent, maybe just changes in behavior caused by the hot climate, like more time outdoors or something.

 

Mid January is around when a lot of countries had initial exposure. With a daily growth rate of 30%, you go from 1 case to 9k cases in 34 days. To 300k cases in 48 days (2 weeks later). If your growth rate is 20%, you go from 1 case to 9k in 50 days. So if these hot countries do have a somewhat lower (though still high) growth rate, that could appear as an apparent lag of two weeks behind other countries like Italy or Spain.

[gk10002000]

given the large amount of time that people stay indoors, I think any climate related data is not too important.  Sure a virus sitting on an outside surface that is 120F versus 70F may degrade quicker, and that alone may help infection and transmission rates, I don't think that is as important as it used to be, given the way people live these days.  Transmission is likely more related to inter personal closeness and contact.

[UbonThani]

Been 9 Corona virus strains for over 20 years. Could be more. Only 2 main common strains though.

 

Sun boosts immunity. Sit in the sun 3 hrs a day.

[RJRS1301]

2 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Been 9 Corona virus strains for over 20 years. Could be more. Only 2 main common strains though.

 

Sun boosts immunity. Sit in the sun 3 hrs a day.

With appropriate sun protection

Vit D from sun only really needs about 20 (protected) minutes

[bendejo]

3 hours ago, jacob29 said:

Malaysia

That's because Malaysia has all those eateries where the food has been sitting in the display for hours on end, sometimes from morning till night, so when the people who eat in those nasi kandar places encounter the virus the nasties from the slightly-spoiled food overpowers the virus.

 

(this was meant to be a joke; I've spent a lot time there and love nasi kandar (when it's fresh))

 

 

[RJRS1301]

34 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Been 9 Corona virus strains for over 20 years. Could be more. Only 2 main common strains though.

I think the OP means mutations of this strain.

[Nyezhov]

Lets try again.

 

The major way this virus spreads is by spew. Not necessarily aerosol spew, but a good juicy spew sitting on the doorknob or door hangle or object. 

 

The better the conditions for the virus, the longer it lives. Im sure, like all other organisms, it has its fav temp range.

 

The worse the conditions, the shorter its life span. Dude comes along with the Lysol. Dead. Dude comes by with a UV-C generator, dead. Dude pours boiling water and detergent over the surface. Dead. But what if there is no dude?

 

Well happy happy happy virii its 27 degrees and cloudy, lets just sit on that door knob until some schnook comes along. For hours.

 

But wait...here in Cambodia, for example, its hitting close to 40 degress. And that sun is shining. It lobsters a human in 20 minutes. So there those virii, happy and dancing for 7 hours in favourable conditions, start croaking in 3.

 

Same in Thailand, although its far more crowded. Florida is cooler and crowded. Israel is cooler and densly crowded. Queens is coolest and loaded with the lumpen who live right on top of each other. So the chances of touching a spewed on object with live virii is greater. In A realtively socially distanced place thats hotter than 2 Vegas strippers putting on a show the virii doesnt live as long and there are less folks to get spewed on.

 

Now, to quote Trump haters, disprove that!

[UbonThani]

59 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

With appropriate sun protection

Vit D from sun only really needs about 20 (protected) minutes

20 mins how much do you absorb?

[UbonThani]

25 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

I think the OP means mutations of this strain.

Dosage is most important. Touching a surface infected 48 hrs ago gives a mild dosage. Touching an infected surface from 5 mins ago or someone coughing on you much worse. Hence Euro problem in March. They were hugging and kissing.

[RJRS1301]

4 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

20 mins how much do you absorb?

https://www.dummies.com/health/nutrition/vitamins/how-much-sun-do-you-need-to-make-vitamin-d/