Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[Aland]

4 minutes ago, Incobart said:

Then I would appreciate you asked like this, instead of making someone ridiculous that speak your language a lot better than you are speaking mine ... be happy others do the effort ..

 

I mean if you calculate normally average 184 people die per day in bkk. If now with the C-virus the death rate is 80 % higher (184+80% = 331)  it is not an amazingly higher body mountain. I replied this on the comment from someone that think that an 80 % higher death rate must lead to streets full of bodies.

and 184 bodies in BKK,  you don't see them also, they can handle, so I think 331 goes the same way as the rest, instead of to the Makro.

Sorry but I find it hard to believe that the death rate could be 80% higher and no one is reporting or seeing it. If you have any proof, that would be helpful otherwise I put you in the same category as the “government is fudging the numbers” group, it’s simply your opinion.

[BKKBike09]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

Somebody just have to make fun of all the lack of foundation and lack of facts to support their comments. I am using the support of the country´s different agencies, administration, hospitals as well as highly educated persons in high posts in society. Exactly like they would do if they were in their home country. Why can not give the same courtesy to Thailand. The land many of them chose to stay, live or work in?

 

Regarding the mass testing done in South Korea, of course that worked. They did that because of the massive amount of infected people that invaded their hospitals. That worked for them. Thailand do not have that invasion, and have chosen another approach that evidently works for them. So, why complain when the situation is better her than in most of the complainers home countries?

 

"Regarding the mass testing done in South Korea, of course that worked. They did that because of the massive amount of infected people that invaded their hospitals" - er, no. It was precisely because they DIDN'T want a massive amount of infected people invading their hospitals that they instigated mass testing.

 

Don't take my word for it, take the word of Dr Min Pok-kee, the doctor heading the Covid-19 response in Daegu, the South Korean city hit hardest by the epidemic [I will assume that he counts both as a highly educated person in a high post in society and as a representative of a national agency, but you're welcome to disagree].

 

"At the end of January, I warned the mayor of Daegu that a pandemic was coming. I had spoken with hospitals in China and received information from the doctors. Within a few weeks, we had 11 cases, most of them members of Shincheonji [a Christian movement]. My thought was, “This could spread really, really fast. We have to stop this.”

 

When I was in the military, I practiced a lot of war simulations. So I immediately contacted local military hospitals and said, “Get ready.”

 

In Daegu, we had more than 10,000 members of Shincheonji. When we tested those who were symptomatic, 87.5 percent turned out to be positive. When we tested a sample of people who weren’t symptomatic, it was 74.4 per cent. So we had to quarantine this group, and we did. We call this our “divine maneuver.” If we hadn’t done it from the very beginning, we’d be where the US is now, where Italy is now.

 

When we hit 5,000 confirmed cases in Daegu, we figured Seoul was going to have 30,000. That’s an absolute disaster. The mayor of Daegu, to his credit, really heard me out. To be honest with you, the president of Korea did not do the same. The doctors advising the president, many of us specialists believe, did not do right by him. Their main misstep was saying everything was fine, that there wasn’t any problem."

 

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/a-south-korean-covid-19-czar-has-some-advice-for-trump/

 

This is just an excerpt from what is a very interesting interview with someone on the front lines of a national response to Covid. 

 

[Thingamabob]

Test, test, test is as ridiculous as the lockdown policy. Just let the virus run it's natural course. Huge number of fatalities will result, but there are way too many people in the  world anyway. 

[dinsdale]

8 minutes ago, Aland said:

It’s been noticed. 

 

Something for the CCP fanboys to watch. Nice one Aland.

[rabas]

11 minutes ago, Incobart said:

Then I would appreciate you asked like this, instead of making someone ridiculous that speak your language a lot better than you are speaking mine ... be happy others do the effort ..

 

I mean if you calculate normally average 184 people die per day in bkk. If now with the C-virus the death rate is 80 % higher (184+80% = 331)  it is not an amazingly higher body mountain. I replied this on the comment from someone that think that an 80 % higher death rate must lead to streets full of bodies.

and 184 bodies in BKK,  you don't see them also, they can handle, so I think 331 goes the same way as the rest, instead of to the Makro.

....  an amazingly higher body mountain.

 

Here, it just leads to more smoke.

[smedly]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

Man countries in the World in fact most are not doing mass testing, UK included who have even said they are only testing those hospitalized.

Is Boris Johnson sacrificing the health of UK citizens? and hiding real data?

Whats every other countries excuse?

15k a day is pretty mass to me with a target of double that number PER DAY

 

Thailand - I'm not sure if they have even managed that in 90 days never mind one day 

 

But hey Thailand is doing great - right ?

 

I said  about two weeks ago 

 

actions speak louder than words and the actions in this country don't quite fit what they are saying

 

Thailand would love to come out of this smelling of roses - we will never know because they will keep it well covered 

 

In the UK when someone dies a doctor signs a death certificate and the doctor determines at that time what he thinks is the cause of death - will determine in his opinion if that death was "likely" due to CV-19 - a confirmatory test will be done later to support his diagnosis, that is the stark difference in Thailand - a death is not certified by a doctor and unless a test is carried out no one will ever know what that person died of and if anyone claims CV-19 they will be prosecuted for spreading false news - that is the reality of this country 

[Incobart]

Just now, Aland said:

Sorry but I find it hard to believe that the death rate could be 80% higher and no one is reporting or seeing it. If you have any proof, that would be helpful otherwise I put you in the same category as the “government is fudging the numbers” group, it’s simply your opinion.

I am not gonne do it here, just take the figures of reliable countries and compare the death rate with the population. The 80 % is because of the fast epidemic, it is temporary, some people die more quicker now, later the figure will maybe lower than average.

[spornb]

What rubbish

 

Without testing it is not possible to evaluate the extent of the problem, there is no base line

 

Ignore it and it will eventually take over

[Incobart]

12 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Test, test, test is as ridiculous as the lockdown policy. Just let the virus run it's natural course. Huge number of fatalities will result, but there are way too many people in the  world anyway. 

correct, you should look into this https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Edited April 14, 2020 by Incobart

[smutcakes]

7 minutes ago, smedly said:

15k a day is pretty mass to me with a target of double that number PER DAY

 

Thailand - I'm not sure if they have even managed that in 90 days never mind one day 

 

But hey Thailand is doing great - right ?

 

I said  about two weeks ago 

 

actions speak louder than words and the actions in this country don't quite fit what they are saying

 

Thailand would love to come out of this smelling of roses - we will never know because they will keep it well covered 

 

In the UK when someone dies a doctor signs a death certificate and the doctor determines at that time what he thinks is the cause of death - will determine in his opinion if that death was "likely" due to CV-19 - a confirmatory test will be done later to support his diagnosis, that is the stark difference in Thailand - a death is not certified by a doctor and unless a test is carried out no one will ever know what that person died of and if anyone claims CV-19 they will be prosecuted for spreading false news - that is the reality of this country 

What do you mean actions speak louder than words and what they say does not fit? They have openly said they are not mass testing. So what actions are not fitting?

 

Essentially you are saying whatever happens here you wont believe it, so there is not much point discussing as whatever transpires now or in the future, you simply wont believe.

 

How many have died in the UK now? 10,000? Yeah they are handling it great. Where are the 10,000 bodies in Thailand? Where are the pictures on social media? You cannot hide 10,000 bodies easily in this and age. Thailand was the 1st place to have a case outside of Wuhan (1st place to admit it) so now 3 months later where are all the bodies like we seen passing in the UK?

 

 

[Matzzon]

59 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You didn't post it and I have not suggested that you did but I did answer you question about it did I not?I did however ask you some questions and if you wished to answer them that would be great.I did I admit take the p!ss with the twisting and turning comment which is merely meant in jest so please don't take it otherwise.I am however genuinely interested in yours (and others) responses in a genuine effort to debate the issues which is why I pose the question I do and if your interested to know I pose these questions to myself as well but I also desire others point of view to try and come something resembling a rational conclusion.I realise that my manner may seem confusing,confrontational,competitive,confusing and even though I maybe loathe to admit "twisting and turning".I see people's "whinging and whining" as people trying to help by making suggestions on how they think things should be done to improve a situation as they see it and I feel they should be encouraged to express their views and engage in discussion to further our joint quest to quench our thirst from the cesspool sorry fountain of knowledge to which we all contribute.

Okidoki! I will take on your questions. By the way, feel free to use the word you stroke over. It´s a very painting description of this place. ???? 

I will take up you post again: 

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

There you go twisting and turning things around again and I'm not at all surprised!Is it better to question those in the situation or to accept what they say without question?To ask questions is not a statement saying we know better (maybe we don't maybe we do).Also he is judging the success of testing regimes based purely on cost efficiency not on the success or not on health benefits and reducing the number of deaths,should that approach not be questioned?To base your testing regime based purely in financial efficiency and admitting it surely would incur a major loss of face in the international health community.Would you applaud such lunacy?Would put the amount of money you could save before the amount of lives you could save in deciding wether to test or not and then admit it publicly? 

The approach of cost efficiency, does not have to be questioned in my opinion. That out of the reason that it seems to have worked and it was apparently the right choice then. Nothing wrong with saving money based on the right choices. if you should take the chance, though, can be questionable. Sometimes people gamble and win. Other times they lose.

In this case it was no lunacy. It was the right choice.

Yes, if the result was like it has been shown, then there is no failure in admitting, but if the bet had failed, you would be right that it would look terrible.

 

[Incobart]

2 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

How many have died in the UK now? 10,000? Yeah they are handling it great. Where are the 10,000 bodies in Thailand? Where are the pictures on social media? You cannot hide 10,000 bodies easily in this and age. 

Who say they cover up ? every day normally 1535 deaths in Thailand, do you see them on social media ? are they covering them up ? 1000's of deaths in Uk,  do you see all the bodies ?

[Matzzon]

19 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

"Regarding the mass testing done in South Korea, of course that worked. They did that because of the massive amount of infected people that invaded their hospitals" - er, no. It was precisely because they DIDN'T want a massive amount of infected people invading their hospitals that they instigated mass testing.

 

Don't take my word for it, take the word of Dr Min Pok-kee, the doctor heading the Covid-19 response in Daegu, the South Korean city hit hardest by the epidemic [I will assume that he counts both as a highly educated person in a high post in society and as a representative of a national agency, but you're welcome to disagree].

 

"At the end of January, I warned the mayor of Daegu that a pandemic was coming. I had spoken with hospitals in China and received information from the doctors. Within a few weeks, we had 11 cases, most of them members of Shincheonji [a Christian movement]. My thought was, “This could spread really, really fast. We have to stop this.”

 

When I was in the military, I practiced a lot of war simulations. So I immediately contacted local military hospitals and said, “Get ready.”

 

In Daegu, we had more than 10,000 members of Shincheonji. When we tested those who were symptomatic, 87.5 percent turned out to be positive. When we tested a sample of people who weren’t symptomatic, it was 74.4 per cent. So we had to quarantine this group, and we did. We call this our “divine maneuver.” If we hadn’t done it from the very beginning, we’d be where the US is now, where Italy is now.

 

When we hit 5,000 confirmed cases in Daegu, we figured Seoul was going to have 30,000. That’s an absolute disaster. The mayor of Daegu, to his credit, really heard me out. To be honest with you, the president of Korea did not do the same. The doctors advising the president, many of us specialists believe, did not do right by him. Their main misstep was saying everything was fine, that there wasn’t any problem."

 

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/a-south-korean-covid-19-czar-has-some-advice-for-trump/

 

This is just an excerpt from what is a very interesting interview with someone on the front lines of a national response to Covid. 

 

Yes, It´s a good approach and it worked out for them. Yes he is a prominent man to count with. In that case I was wrong, and admit that.

However, it has very little relevance compared to Thailand. Here they have a low amount of infections and are handling it in a good and working way for this country. That´s what´s important. Not how they do to get the good result, it´s the good result that counts.

[smutcakes]

4 minutes ago, Incobart said:

Who say they cover up ? every day normally 1535 deaths in Thailand, do you see them on social media ? are they covering them up ? 1000's of deaths in Uk,  do you see all the bodies ?

Sorry i have no idea what you are saying. Did you not say earlier that Thailand had 11 million cases? Apologies if its difficult to take you seriously. 

[FarFlungFalang]

29 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Test, test, test is as ridiculous as the lockdown policy. Just let the virus run it's natural course. Huge number of fatalities will result, but there are way too many people in the  world anyway. 

An interesting comparison between 2 countries on the worldometer list:

             Infections  Deaths                                       Tests      Tests per Mil

Indonesia	4,557		399		380	3,778		17	1	27,075	99
UAE	4,521		25		852	3,644	1	457	3	648,195	65,538

[Incobart]

11 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Sorry i have no idea what you are saying. Did you not say earlier that Thailand had 11 million cases? Apologies if its difficult to take you seriously. 

11 million infected.... = carriers ... 2 %  get symptoms ..  that's  220.000   80 % not go hospital cause symptoms not severe = left over 44.000 that get quiet sick   and among these ones people die.

possibly 1200 per day...   my calculation, but this is not sure that finally 0.001 % of total population have to die from corona. for Thailand that should mean 68.000 before the pandemic goes quickly back to normal.  you can calculate for your country. till 68.000 then 70-80 % will be carrier/immune.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Incobart

[Aland]

18 minutes ago, Incobart said:

Who say they cover up ? every day normally 1535 deaths in Thailand, do you see them on social media ? are they covering them up ? 1000's of deaths in Uk,  do you see all the bodies ?

I think what we are trying to say is, if more people here, were dying from covid19, somebody somewhere would be talking about it. These people can’t even take a <deleted> in the morning without telling everyone in the vicinity, do you think they wouldn’t be talking if people were dropping like flies? Front page story on Bangkok post, taxi driver found dead on the side of the road, they instantly suspect covid19 and will be testing the body to see if he was infected. That’s how focused they are here. World-o-meters has Thailand down for 41 deaths since this whole “crisis” started. I’ll believe that number until is see some kind of evidence that refutes it.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Aland

[chilly07]

S Korea and Germany tested a v high proportion and seem to have the best record at fighting the virus

[Incobart]

2 minutes ago, Aland said:

I think what we are trying to say is, if more people here, were dying from covid19, somebody somewhere would be talking about it. These people can’t even take a <deleted> in the morning without telling everyone in the vicinity, do you think they wouldn’t be talking if people were dropping like flies? World-o-meters has Thailand down for 41 deaths since this whole “crisis” started. I’ll believe that number until is see some kind of evidence that refutes it.

0.001% of population is not dropping death as flies, 

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

There is now stuff coming out of China saying there was no bat and the likelyhood it came from the infectious diseases lab 10 km down the road. Interesting to see if anyone picks up on this. 

Link?

[Aland]

Just now, Traubert said:

Link?

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

 

[smutcakes]

9 minutes ago, Incobart said:

11 million infected.... = carriers ... 2 %  get symptoms ..  that's  220.000   80 % not go hospital cause symptoms not severe = left over 44.000 that get quiet sick   and among these ones people die.

possibly 1200 per day...   my calculation, but this is not sure that finally 0.001 % of total population have to die from corona. for Thailand that should mean 68.000 before the pandemic goes quickly back to normal.  you can calculate for your country. till 68.000 then 70-80 % will be carrier/immune.

I thought 30% were asymtomatic which would mean 70% of your 11 million = 7.7 million...

 

Where did this 2% of infected get symptoms come from?

[Incobart]

1 minute ago, smutcakes said:

I thought 30% were asymtomatic which would mean 70% of your 11 million = 7.7 million...

 

Where did this 2% of infected get symptoms come from?

30% is calculated from the registered cases, meaning the 44000

[SkyFax]

Mass testing US/New Jersey style

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
Updated 11:26 p.m. ET April 13, 2020

 

PARAMUS, N.J. — The lines start forming the night before, as people with glassy eyes and violent coughs try to get tested for the virus. In the darkness, they park their cars, cut their engines and try to sleep. ...

Initially, the strain came from a lack of test kits, but now there are not enough nasal swabs, not enough nurses. There is a pileup at the labs themselves and a limited supply of the chemicals needed to identify the virus. ...

Ms. Holmes-Perez spent the night constantly adjusting the reclining seat inside her Mercedes S-Class, lying down until the congestion in her chest forced her to sit up again. ...

Those with no symptoms are also turned away. 

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Link?

Aland posted this. Very interesting.

Edited April 14, 2020 by dinsdale

[FarFlungFalang]

25 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Okidoki! I will take on your questions. By the way, feel free to use the word you stroke over. It´s a very painting description of this place. ???? 

I will take up you post again: 

The approach of cost efficiency, does not have to be questioned in my opinion. That out of the reason that it seems to have worked and it was apparently the right choice then. Nothing wrong with saving money based on the right choices. if you should take the chance, though, can be questionable. Sometimes people gamble and win. Other times they lose.

In this case it was no lunacy. It was the right choice.

Yes, if the result was like it has been shown, then there is no failure in admitting, but if the bet had failed, you would be right that it would look terrible.

 

Thanks I appreciate the effort.We will hopefully one day find you correct in that the Thai numbers are correct and they end with minimal deaths I would then gladly eat my words though obviously my faith in the numbers of this "twisting and turning" and in my opinion unlawful and untrustworthy administration ebbs on the low side.

[Chongalulu]

4 hours ago, Matzzon said:

But you are always basing your posts on facts and substantial information? Really, it´s nice to have you here as the rock we can all rely on. 

Also you take a newspaper as source for disputing other facts. Yep, that´s right!" We all know that everything that stands in the press is true.

No,you still haven’t grasped this debating and counter argument principle, have you? You really need to take your own advice "stupid is stupid enough". Whatever that’s supposed to mean.

[diks]

9 minutes ago, chilly07 said:

S Korea and Germany tested a v high proportion and seem to have the best record at fighting the virus

having a good record in fighting the virus has little to do with testing and much more with a functioning public health system, otherwise countries like Italy would also be ahead of the curve.

[Traubert]

10 minutes ago, Aland said:

https://youtu.be/Gdd7dtDaYmM

 

Youtube. ????

[spermwhale]

6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The rate of infection is not high enough to warrant testing but it's high enough to shut down the country and the economy.Thailand has an average of 2700 deaths each year so I guess we can look forward to a permanent lock down to save even more lives from a disease which kills about 50 times more people than C19 in Thailand.

What are you yammering about? a disease that kills 50 times more people than C19? What disease is that? Does your mystery disease kill as many as a percentage of those who contract it compared to C19? I doubt it.