Why is Thailand not reopening?

[Odysseus123]

7 minutes ago, donnacha said:

We know that they deployed a ridiculous testing protocol that could only reduce the number of positive results, but then changed that once word got out. Magically, that was when the number of cases began to rise, and every day the focus was then put on the cases that had flown in from Europe, not China, not community transmission within Thailand itself.

Yes-very good analysis.

 

Life in the Potemkin village....is not life as we know it, Jim.

[OneMoreFarang]

39 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate - you are quoting reported numbers as if they are hard facts.

I just showed two official statistics.

How do you know if they are facts or not?

And how do you know that lots of other statistics from around the world are correct?

If we see lots of body bags and mass graves that's a pretty clear sign that there are lots of dead people.

If we see overcrowded hospitals that's a clear sign that many people are sick.

Where are the pictures with the overcrowded hospitals and the body bags from Thailand? Or are they all censored?

I find it always amazing how many "experts" here seem to know what is going on - and obviously without any evidence.

[Sheryl]

I think they are very concerned - rightly so - about the potential for spread during Songkran and will keep a tight lid on until the holiday has safely passed.

 

Likely also some concern about waiting to see if the recent exodus from Bangkok to the provinces leads to a spike in infections, it will take time to know.

 

My best guess is that if we reach 1 May with no uptick, there will start to be a gradual lessening of restrictions.

 

But note that lessened restrictions are harder to enforce than more complete ones. And that the downward trend is because the lockdown has substantially reduced spread. It is not because the virus is completely  or the population all immune. An abrupt lifting would almost certainly lead to a resurgence so it has to be done in stages and very carefully. Which will be quite challenging to design and enforce.

 

All countries face this dilemma or soon will.

[OneMoreFarang]

38 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Never mind who is in charge, at some point someone has to decide when to reopen... what are the acceptable numbers... 

 

Many countries are in the process of doing it... Austria, Spain, France... and they are in a much more difficult situation than Thailand. 

 

I am not saying that Thailand should reopen tomorrow, but that it should provide a time frame, a planning of sorts, so that the population and the businesses would have some idea of what to expect. 

 

How about "maybe next month"? Would that help? Because then maybe it's a month later or a few months later. 

I think sometimes we should just admit that we don't know in the moment.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

You are making the mistake of assuming there are advanced thinkers in the Thai government. Like a rich Thai schoolboy who has paid a smarter classmate to write his essay, they have no interest in a realistic grade. They want an A+.
 

 

Many believe this because the Thai Covid-19 number are, indeed, not true.
 

 

Provide your proof, or just step aside and refrain from spouting nonsense.

 

You can start with explaining where all the bodies are? If they managed to hide them, why is there not a massive amount of relatives searching for their lost ones?

Edited April 14, 2020 by Matzzon

[donnacha]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where are the pictures with the overcrowded hospitals and the body bags from Thailand? Or are they all censored?

There are literally reporting restrictions in place, and the medical workers face imprisonment if they speak to journalists anyway.

What is the point of your ceaseless arguing if you are incapable of retaining basic information?

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by donnacha

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Or are they all dying at home and call it something different?

 

Probably... 

[Matzzon]

I would assume that they are playing the safe card before the unsafe. Nothing wrong with that. They will manage the economy. Don´t worry. People will get their jobs back too, or new will be created. That´s not any facts, I am sitting with. It´s just the normal procedure for any country that has come into a difficult situation.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Matzzon

[OneMoreFarang]

37 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Few things are sadder than a farang who lives in Thailand and, yet, has now idea how it operates.

Out of some deeply-rooted, servile instinct, you choose to believe the government line even when simple common sense should make what is happening, right in front of your eyes, obvious to you.

Everyone in Thailand knows what is actually happening. If you want to know, talk to a Thai doctor, because you clearly won't accept anything that the more experienced expats here have explained to you, again and again. Maybe ask that doctor how many of his patients have been coming down with an unusually bad pneumonia this year. Maybe ask him about the law hurriedly introduced to stop him and all other medical workers saying anything to the media.

You are an ideologue. I have rarely seen you go more than a few posts without somehow dragging Trump into an unrelated discussion, and always with the same blind zeal. Even those in the Thai government would be uncomfortable to see how zealous you are in their defense. They certainly don't believe all this nonsense, not for a second.  

I never wrote that the official numbers are correct. And I never wrote that I believe them.

But at the same time I don't know the real numbers. And I challenge everybody here who believes he know the real numbers to publish the real numbers and show some evidence where those real numbers come from.

With how many doctors did you personally talk in Thailand?

How many hospitals did you visit?

What are those pneumonia numbers you quote?

Write facts! Statements similar to: I know better but I can't proof it are useless.

[bkk6060]

12 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

Interesting infection and death rates from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam....

Sure, yes look.

Add Malaysia and Myanmar.

Unless you think there is some 6 country conspiracy going on, Thailands numbers certainly seem very plausible.

[Guderian]

I've asked several times what criteria the government will use to decide when to start lifting restrictions, but so far I have had no useful replies. The problem is that they've only tested a very small number of people and the experts admit that the virus could be happily spreading through the general population and they wouldn't know about it. So the official numbers aren't really much use in deciding when to start easing things, and I suspect the government hasn't really got much idea how it will decide.

 

To be fair, though, the UK government doesn't seem to have a better plan as to when to relax a little, and personally I'd say that starting to get Italy and Spain back to work when they're still both recording thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths every day is well premature. Eventually, though, the economic damage being caused will outweigh the fear of more deaths and things will start to return to 'normal', whatever that will mean. As somebody quipped, it will be no country for old men.

[OneMoreFarang]

10 minutes ago, donnacha said:

There are literally reporting restrictions in place, and the medical workers face imprisonment if they speak to journalists anyway.

What is the point of your ceaseless arguing if you are incapable of retaining basic information?

It seems everything goes viral on facebook these days. If these overcrowded hospitals and bodybags would exist then I am sure lots of people would share them on fb. And lots of people would publish them here on TV.

But for whatever reason that does not happen. Now the question is: Is it maybe not sooooo bad or is everything censored? It seems you think you are the expert. Show us the evidence. As soon as you do that I will stop my questions where your knowledge comes from.

[bkk6060]

2 minutes ago, Guderian said:

I've asked several times what criteria the government will use to decide when to start lifting restrictions, but so far I have had no useful replies

You frustrated?

How and why would anyone on here know?

Maybe send the PM a message asking him.

Other then that, stay tuned to TV for updates and information. You will know when we all do.

[HashBrownHarry]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

"The problem is that it makes little sense"

This is all only a problem for rational thinking human beings mate.  

 

It is the same back here in Aust.  More people are dieing of lung cancer every day (20+) than are dieing from Covid19 a day (2-3) - and yet buying cigarettes and smoking is still legal and has not been shut down.  It is all not rational.

 

But which Govt wants to be the first to adopt the Sweden model?  The risk is that they get it wrong and the Covid deaths increase, then the media will crucify them.  As in anywhere in world, the media here is very left wing, so the right wing Govt knows they are on a hiding to nothing. They either play it too safe and get attacked for killing the economy, or they open too soon and get cricuified for killing people. Someone once said the media is the enemy of the people - so true in many instances.  But at least the media here can expose corruption and incompetence - unlike in China.

 

 

You're comparing apples to oranges, lung cancer is not contagious.

[Matzzon]

13 minutes ago, donnacha said:

 
Matzzon, as I have already learnt the hard way from you, there is no point talking to someone who has less courtesy and reasoning ability than a Corona virus.

 

No, that is not your reason. The real reason is that your are totally unable to explain anything of what you post. Admit it now. You will feel much better after. ???? 

[ChouDoufu]

8 minutes ago, Guderian said:

I've asked several times what criteria the government will use to decide when to start lifting restrictions, but so far I have had no useful replies. The problem is that they've only tested a very small number of people and the experts admit that the virus could be happily spreading through the general population and they wouldn't know about it. So the official numbers aren't really much use in deciding when to start easing things, and I suspect the government hasn't really got much idea how it will decide.

 

To be fair, though, the UK government doesn't seem to have a better plan as to when to relax a little, and personally I'd say that starting to get Italy and Spain back to work when they're still both recording thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths every day is well premature. Eventually, though, the economic damage being caused will outweigh the fear of more deaths and things will start to return to 'normal', whatever that will mean. As somebody quipped, it will be no country for old men.

 

none of the general public, certainly no thaivisa posters, know what criteria will be used.  i doubt the leadership know what will be the deciding factors at this point.  death rates and other health statistics will play a role, as will economic numbers.

 

they will also be carefully watching public sentiment.  if enough people are out of work and unable to pay bills for long enough, they may begin to openly defy government authority.  they don't want to deal with mass protests and a health crisis simultaneously.

[donnacha]

31 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Unless you think there is some 6 country conspiracy going on, Thailands numbers certainly seem very plausible.

Thailand was, by far, the favorite foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan. The second most popular destination, Japan, did not even have half as many.

In the lead up to the busiest time for tourism from China, the Thai government made a decision that supported the interests of their big hotel chains and the Chinese government, at the expense of the citizens of Thailand.

We can surmise, with some confidence, that this decision has impacted Thai medical services because the Thai government quickly brought in reporting restrictions and harsh new rules for medical personnel who talked to the media.

We can surmise that there was a conscious attempt to hide the presence of C-19 in the kingdom because they we know the ridiculously narrow criteria under which tests were even allowed to happen, and we know that the protocol applied to those tests was heavily geared towards delivering negative results (two labs, if one got a positive while the other got a negative, the returned result was negative - anyone who has ever worked in a lab knows that this is the exact opposite of how it should work. This approach is unique in medical history to Thailand alone). 

Perhaps, you might say, the Thai government got lucky. Perhaps those masses of Wuhan tourists were all uninfected, unlike the ones, half as many, who visited Japan. Perhaps the Thai people in January, February, and March were more robust than the Thai people in April, when every Italian tourist seemed to leave a trail of infected Thais in his wake. All those millions of Chinese tourists had no impact at all, but the few thousand European tourists still wandering Thailand in late March and early April have somehow resulted in the current numbers?

The grotty, horrible truth is that, since early February, doctors have been forbidden, under threat of imprisonment, from calling any of the upsurge in severe respiratory illness Covid-19 unless it is first confirmed with a test ... but they have not been allowed to carry out the test unless the patient had recently been to China. Think about that. 

Sick Thai's have been sent home to die with little or no medical intervention. The ones lucky enough to die in the hospitals received the wrong treatment. The "official" outbreak was only allowed to start in April once the testing protocol scam became too risky to continue. Now, yes, you are seeing "plausible" figures, but the thousands who had already died in the main Chinese tourists areas will never be acknowledged. It is a Tiananmen event - it never happened, but everyone in the country knows it did. 


 

Edited April 14, 2020 by donnacha

[RichardColeman]

Why is Thailand not reopening?

Probably as the powers that be are loving every minute of total control !

[Chazar]

1 hour ago, Donga said:

temp checks everywhere, distancing discipline

nonsense,  they  arent  keeping  any  distance, temp  checks  useless also as  many use the things outdoors.

I went to Boonthavorn yestedray in Hua Him, let me  tell you  how the "procedure"  was.

The  SHOP is  closed but you can go there and order  tiles and some other  things but cannot  enter the retail  floor  area.

On arrival you go to a main "checkpoint" here  a  2  women sitting right next to each other (  no distancing) taking  your temperature outside, what I  note is 

1 both girls  have no  mask on as I arrive theyre under their chins, both are either on or  playing with their  phones ie  held up to their ear/face.

When someone approaches they  pull them up touching the FRONT of their mask, this  now renders it  useless, after youve  passed they then pull down their mask again touching it, they will fiddle  around continually  with them.

I didnt go in i sent the Wife in and waited 15  metres from the "way  in"  watching this.

More stupidity  follows..............a girl who works there leaves thru the "check area" (exiting) she walks to 7-11 and on her return the girls  doing the checking who know her then  scan her temperature again.............pointless, like she could get a temperature within a  few minutes of  going  out.

This is  all "going thru the motions"

People entering get a squirt of  hand gel, they briefly  wipe their hands when 20 secs  thoroughly done is advised, lucky if they do it  for more than 5  secs, None of the girls  have gloves. Te main thing is they are constantly  fiddling with their mask which is  mostly DOWN if no one is watching etc.

[Traubert]

10 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Thailand was, by far, the favorite foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan. The second most popular destination, Japan, did not even have half as many.

In the lead up to the busiest time for tourism from China, the Thai government made a decision that supported their big hotel chain and the interests of the Chinese government, at the expense of their own citizens.

We can surmise, with some confidence, that this decision has impacted Thai medical services because the Thai government quickly brought in reporting restrictions and harsh new rules for medical personnel who talked to the media.

We can surmise that there was a conscious attempt to hide the presence of C-19 in the kingdom because they we know the ridiculously narrow criteria under which tests were even allowed to happen, and we know that the protocol applied to those tests was heavily geared towards delivering negative results (two labs, if one got a positive while the other got a negative, the returned result was negative - anyone who has ever worked in a lab knows that this is the exact opposite of how it should work. This approach is unique in medical history to Thailand alone). 

Perhaps, you might say, the Thai government got lucky. Perhaps those masses of Wuhan tourists were all uninfected. Perhaps the Thai people in January, February, and March were more robust than the Thai people in April, when every Italian tourist seemed to leave a trail of infected Thais in his wake. All those millions of Chinese tourists had no impact at all, but the few thousand European tourists in late March and early April have somehow resulted in the current numbers?

The grotty, horrible truth is that, since early February, doctors have been forbidden, under threat of imprisonment, from calling any of the upsurge in severe respiratory illness Covid-19 unless it is first confirmed with a test ... but they have not been allowed to carry out the test unless the patient had recently been to China. Think about that. 

Sick Thai's have been sent home to die with little or no medical intervention. The ones lucky enough to die in the hospitals received the wrong treatment. The "official" outbreak was only allowed to start in April once the testing protocol scam became too risky to continue. Now, yes, you are seeing "plausible" figures, but the thousands who had already died in the main Chinese tourists areas will never be acknowledged. It is a Tiananmen event - it never happened. 


 

Right, that's enough!

 

Book 'em Danno......???????? Or should I say Donna...

 

Now could you look at The Loch Ness Monster for us??

[garygooner]

Some countries have strong, decisive leaders supported by experts.. Others are sheep and just wait and follow. 

[chessman]

Governments around the world will be extremely cautious because they have seen the effect that this virus can have in areas. That is perfectly logical. 
 

as for the number of deaths, they can be under-reported without it being a huge conspiracy. Many people will choose to try and recover at home and if those people die they will not be tested and not included in the official figures. 

[Yinn]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

With covid 19 numbers like those of Thailand, most if not all countries would be reopening,

Factorys schools closed for songkran. They not close the factory before that.

 

Factory more money than tourism. Farm more than tourism. 

factory, farm not close.

 

Close tourism because

a) no tourist come anyway

b) tourism is big spreader. Good idea.

 

close plaza, restaurants same reason b.

Lockdown social, night curfew, travel for songkran.

Not lockdown go to work.

Foreign worker can still work, but not leave workplace.

 

Think you live tourism area= You think everything close down. Is not true. 

 

Farm, factory, construction, bank, finance etc NOT close. (Only because songkran)

 

 

 

 

 

[Brunolem]

8 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Factorys schools closed for songkran. They not close the factory before that.

 

Factory more money than tourism. Farm more than tourism. 

factory, farm not close.

 

Close tourism because

a) no tourist come anyway

b) tourism is big spreader. Good idea.

 

close plaza, restaurants same reason b.

Lockdown social, night curfew, travel for songkran.

Not lockdown go to work.

Foreign worker can still work, but not leave workplace.

 

Think you live tourism area= You think everything close down. Is not true. 

 

Farm, factory, construction, bank, finance etc NOT close. (Only because songkran)

 

 

 

 

 

Everything open and yet, according to another thread, job losses could hit 10 million... a huge number for a country like Thailand... 

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

Few things are sadder than a farang who lives in Thailand and, yet, has now idea how it operates.

 

Not be sad na.

 

Or you the special guy, can not speak read, write Thai language, but “know everything”. Wow. 

 

 

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

Out of some deeply-rooted, servile instinct, you choose to believe the government line even when simple common sense should make what is happening, right in front of your eyes, obvious to you

Everyone in Thailand knows what is actually happening.

Zero covid in Ranong. Zero foreigner die covid in thailand.

 

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

 

If you want to know, talk to a Thai doctor, because you clearly won't accept anything that the more experienced expats here have explained to you, again and again. Maybe ask that doctor how many of his patients have been coming down with an unusually bad pneumonia this year. Maybe ask him about the law hurriedly introduced to stop him and all other medical workers saying anything to the media.

 

Do you look/read thai media? Have doctor talk everyday. So many.

 

Or only “comments” section TVF? The farang bar? 

 

 

[Yinn]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Everything open and yet, according to another thread, job losses could hit 10 million... a huge number for a country like Thailand... 

Tourism, retail, restaurant, pub = 10 million

[EricTh]

Opening to other countries or opening for internal travel?

 

They should open up for internal travel in Thailand because the numbers are so low. 

 

Only those hotspot provinces like southernmost Thailand (Patani, Yala), Phuket and Greater Bangkok should be lockdown further. 

 

They should open the rest of the provinces for normal activities with this low number of newly infected cases.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by EricTh

[Jip99]

3 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Opening to other countries or opening for internal travel?

 

They should open up for internal travel in Thailand because the numbers are so low. 

 

Only those hotspot provinces like southernmost Thailand (Patani, Yala), Phuket and Greater Bangkok should be lockdown further. 

 

They should open the rest of the provinces for normal activities with this low number of newly infected cases.

 

 

 

 

Agree 100%

[Yinn]

22 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Right, that's enough!

 

Book 'em Danno......???????? Or should I say Donna...

 

Now could you look at The Loch Ness Monster for us??

Think he read to much TVF comment section. 

Crazy. 

Everyone calm down please. You are scaring some other people who believe it.

[Yinn]

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Opening to other countries or opening for internal travel?

 

They should open up for internal travel in Thailand because the numbers are so low. 

 

Only those hotspot provinces like southernmost Thailand (Patani, Yala), Phuket and Greater Bangkok should be lockdown further. 

 

They should open the rest of the provinces for normal activities with this low number of newly infected cases.

 

 

 

Slowly, after Songkran. 

Necessary thing be open, not pubs, plaza, restaurant etc. still wear mask, wash hand, no party Etc

Up to local governor. Sensible.