53 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

aspects of japanese culture  helped prevent the spread of the infection.

That's a nice story for the media, but it's completely false. I've been in Japan since late March, back then Tokyo was just as packed as ever and most people were not wearing masks or social distancing at all. They only seriously started after April 8. I know many people in Japan who have been sick in the past few months but were refused testing and sent back home. The criteria for testing was so strict that even people who had fever and pneumonia were turned away. The official numbers are a joke.

 

As for antibodies - it's certain that they provide some immunity for some period of time - the only question is how immune and for how long. Pretending that they do not provide immunity is just ridiculous and those "experts" who doubt it are driven by political or other agenda, not science.

5 hours ago, timendres said:

Valid point.

 

Problem is that TVF will not allow me to highlight the part of your post that I am referring to (say with underline or bold), so I see no other option than to quote just the part I am replying to. I do my best to avoid that quote being out of context. My apologies if that happened in your case. The ambiguity of the sentence I quoted was pointed out to me by @chessman, which I acknowledged. It would be nice if TVF provided some mechanism to accommodate highlighting the specific part of a post that someone is addressing in their post.

It was not a big post so no need to edit it.

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Antibodies tests indicate over 20% of the population in Stockholm likely had the disease already, within weeks or at most months they will reach some level of herd immunity, and while the rest of the world will be struggling with endless lockdowns and "waves" indefinitely (until a vaccine is available) Swedes will be laughing at the pub at how crazy other countries' policies are.

 

Initial high number of deaths - yes - but this is the peak - it'll only get better from now on for Sweden.

 

Sweden is not the only one either - Japan has not closed anything until April, and when they did it was voluntary and not enforceable (Japan's constitution does not allow such enforcement). There is no data, but I'd be very surprised if Tokyo isn't at 20-30% (at least!) already - they are the first country after China to get corona cases and until April there was no social distancing at all. Cold weather, dense population, and overpacked trains - you do the math...

Swedish fatalities still rising and they are not laughing now. Thailand had the first case outside China.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-01/covid-19-sweden-hasn-t-cracked-the-coronavirus-code 

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Forum rules permit shortened quotes as long as the intention of the quoted part is not changed. The intention of the part he quoted was not changed, IMO.

The context and meaning was altered completely. I hope that you can realise that but from your first response..maybe not.

21 hours ago, offset said:

Deaths of 256 per million population and 17500 still active cases (only 1000 recoveries) does not seem very good to me need to wait to see the final outcome before we know what country did good or bad

Ans rank 26th in infection rate / 1M people. I'm not too impressed by their model either. Germaany are doing better. 

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Thailand had the first case outside China

Sorry, you're right. Thailand got it's first case 4 days earlier than Japan.

1 hour ago, Stygge said:

The problem is that this is a long distance race. Advocating the strategy of total lock down given a low death rate is like falling from a 10 store building and when passing the third floor falling down note the fact that so far all is fine. It all has to open up and then you will have the inevitable crash of increasing deaths.
In theory it´s better to restrict movment instead of stopping it completely to get a fair share of shielding same time you keep key areas of the economy running. It gives initially higher number of deaths but don´t see a high rise of deaths when the restrictions gradually easen up. As long as the health care system can keep up I think the Swedish system make sense and the high numbers of causalities in Sweden largely depends on a more honest way of counting Covid 19 deaths then many other countries, given Sweden also counts deaths outside hospitals, given an admitted failiure in protecting elderly in nursing homes, and also given the fact that total numbers of deaths doesn´t deviate very much from earlier years. The latter means that deaths mainly occurs in the age group over 80 and that they would stand a high risk of dying this period anyway but from another underlying factors.
And - locked down societies produce a bleeding economy that in the long run will cause numerous more deaths. Nothing is mor dangerous to your health than poverty.

That's nice, but your position does not reflect the  actual data: The reality is that the infections, hospitalizations and deaths are growing in a linear manner. There is no curve in Sweden. Look at the week on week values and it is a human tragedy developing. These are not numbers, but human lives. 

 

The number of infections in Sweden is much higher than the data indicates and this is due in large part because of the smaller number of tests Sweden conducts. If you don't test, you cannot identify the infected.  Sweden  has a low testing rate. We all know that about 80% of  "european" people who get infected should be able to recover at home, with many having  bearable or mild symptoms.  Without testing, these cases are missed. What is also missed is an opportunity to identify those who  have suffered  circulatory and lung  damage that can impair the patients over time.

 

Compare Sweden to similar countries like Norway or even Canada. Look at the tests per million.  Norway at 31,835; Canada at 22,050 and Sweden at the dismal 11,883.

Why am I emphasizing testing? It's because we know that countries like Norway and Canada used tests to diagnose the disease  and have been sampling a much larger  portion of the population than Sweden.  the larger the testing pool, i.e. sample size, the more reliable the data.  In public health, we know that a small sample size will typically under represent penetration of an infection in the population.  

 

Norway, and Canada  most certainly include elder care home information. In the case of Canada, most of its hospitalizations and deaths arise from its senior care residences, particularly nursing homes. It's an ongoing national tragedy so bad that three provincial  governments were forced to take over some private care homes and the military  is providing  personnel to act as orderlies.  The point here is that your claim that out of hospital care hospitalizations and deaths are not reported is not true when we look at countries comparable to Sweden.

 

Yes there is economic damage, but the term "bleeding" is not justified. I have already pointed out that Sweden will  have an economy in worse shape than many other western countries. Sweden's strategy has not protected its economy.  The overall economic damage is temporary when taken in the context of 10 years. Economies will recover. Unlike destructive wars, infrastructure  is still there, and the young will emerge from this alive. This is very different than actual violent wars.  And whatever the cost, advanced societies put a value on the dignity and care of their elderly. Canada has a death rate of just 90 per million. I see that Sweden is now pushing 266 per million with the most recent data release.  There is something very chilling about a society that  is willing to kill off its older population under the guise of the  "greater good".  Whatever the reason, the original Swedish strategy changed and Sweden has implemented many of the measures seen in other countries. Sweden can take a few extra risks because it does not have a high population density in much of the country. Unfortunately, in its big cities it is looking at  a perfect storm scenario and the deaths will keep rising.

41 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

There is something very chilling about a society that  is willing to kill off its older population under the guise of the  "greater good".  Whatever the reason, the original Swedish strategy changed and Sweden has implemented many of the measures seen in other countries.

So your accusing Sweden of killing off it's elderly population?That's a bit harsh don't you think.Does the rest of the world kill off their flu victims because they don't lockdown their citizens?

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

There is something very chilling about a society that  is willing to kill off its older population under the guise of the  "greater good".

Well, we are calmly watching the world's economy being destroyed, millions of children being locked down, and the general population suddenly deprived of their sacred constitutional rights in the name of the sanctity of life, i think you should not complain too much.

Lets face it, this is an experiment, a risky one, nobody will know until its all over which is the most effective and safe way to contain the virus. Unfortunately this experiment involves human lives and suffering to find out the best outcome. Thats the scariest part for me.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Lets face it, this is an experiment, a risky one, nobody will know until its all over which is the most effective and safe way to contain the virus. Unfortunately this experiment involves human lives and suffering to find out the best outcome. Thats the scariest part for me.

If the lockdowns prove to be in any way effective we can look forward to global lockdown for every viral outbreak including seasonal flues otherwise what's the point?All viral outbreaks have curves that could be "flattened".

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

If the lockdowns prove to be in any effective we can look forward to global lockdown for every viral outbreak including seasonal flues otherwise what's the point?All viral outbreaks have curves that could be "flattened".

Nonsense

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The number of infections in Sweden is much higher than the data indicates and this is due in large part because of the smaller number of tests Sweden conducts. If you don't test, you cannot identify the infected.  Sweden  has a low testing rate. We all know that about 80% of  "european" people who get infected should be able to recover at home, with many having  bearable or mild symptoms.  Without testing, these cases are missed. What is also missed is an opportunity to identify those who  have suffered  circulatory and lung  damage that can impair the patients over time.

 

Compare Sweden to similar countries like Norway or even Canada. Look at the tests per million.  Norway at 31,835; Canada at 22,050 and Sweden at the dismal 11,883.

Why am I emphasizing testing? It's because we know that countries like Norway and Canada used tests to diagnose the disease  and have been sampling a much larger  portion of the population than Sweden.  the larger the testing pool, i.e. sample size, the more reliable the data.  In public health, we know that a small sample size will typically under represent penetration of an infection in the population.  

 

Norway, and Canada  most certainly include elder care home information.

True , as a Norwegian I can confirm we count elderly in care homes, unlike many other countries. The information we get from Norway, Denmark and Sweden are reliable.  Not the daily numbers, but weekly it will give us a clearer picture.   


 

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nonsense

Not really because the idea of flattening the curve is to save as many lives as possible is it not?Are you suggesting we should only save the lives of C19 patients and disregard the live that could be saved from other pandemics?Is there a reason for not doing global shutdowns for the flu which can be just as deadly?I do agree it's nonsense to enforce locking people up whose only crime is to be possibly infected with this virus. 

4 minutes ago, balo said:

True , as a Norwegian I can confirm we count elderly in care homes, unlike many other countries. The information we get from Norway, Denmark and Sweden are reliable.  Not the daily numbers, but weekly it will give us a clearer picture.   

It is telling that this analysis of excess death data shows that Norway, Denmark and Sweden are the ones whose 2020 excess deaths can be accounted for almost exactly by their number of reported Covid Deaths. This suggests that these are countries (and Germany) are being the most transparent with their data. Norway even have less deaths than they would usually have which is quite interesting.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

14 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Not really because the idea of flattening the curve is to save as many lives as possible is it not?Are you suggesting we should only save the lives of C19 patients and disregard the live that could be saved from other pandemics?Is there a reason for not doing global shutdowns for the flu which can be just as deadly?I do agree it's nonsense to enforce locking people up whose only crime is to be possibly infected with this virus. 

 

I made no predictions on outcomes, I made no personal views on outcomes, outcomes are unknown until they're not, many months from now or perhaps years, so no to all above. My opinion however would be to learn best practice from the countries that have been more successful in all aspects of containing this virus, both via saving lives, severe illness and economical. That does not necessarily mean lockdowns will come out as the most effective. I predict South Korean model with no lockdowns will be, but thats just my guess as again South Korea has been successful so far but its not the end of the road for them yet.

6 minutes ago, chessman said:

It is telling that this analysis of excess death data shows that Norway, Denmark and Sweden are the ones whose 2020 excess deaths can be accounted for almost exactly by their number of reported Covid Deaths. This suggests that these are countries (and Germany) are being the most transparent with their data. Norway even have less deaths than they would usually have which is quite interesting.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

From the same article :
 

In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.

Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

That does not necessarily mean lockdowns will come out as the most effective. I predict South Korean model with no lockdowns will be, but thats just my guess as again South Korea has been successful so far but its not the end of the road for them yet.

I agree.

Testing and contact tracing seem to work best.

Unfortunately many countries were slower to organize testing and now the numbers are too high to do this effectively. So they try to lockdown until numbers seem more manageable and then they can test and contact trace.

I think the big picture needs to be taken into account.  Number of excess suicides, loss of jobs, houses, number of people with mental issues due to lockdown etc, What happens in waves 2,3 and 4 compared to the herd immunity model in Sweden?  No one knows, but I guess we'll all find out.

 

Everything needs to be factored in, it's not just "number of deaths" even though the data shows the vast majority of deaths are those that have underlying morbidities, or are 80 years old or more.

10 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So your accusing Sweden of killing off it's elderly population?That's a bit harsh don't you think.Does the rest of the world kill off their flu victims because they don't lockdown their citizens?

If you're here and hear and see what's happening, then it doesn't seem harsh. All signs point at that it is valid in many cases. All the way from that counties break the constitution and refuse to give out information how many retirement homes that have infections, if there are infections on specific homes, not informing close relatives if their enderly parents are infected and a healtcare system that refuses to move elderly to hospital to protect the famous curve. This in contrast to accounts from retirement healtcare workers who report lack of all kinds of PPE including hand sanitizer even and other retirement home healtcare workers who take off their masks because they are "irritated" and then care for both infected and not yet infected elderly. 

 

Swedish media reported of one close relative who had to threaten the retirement home with going to the press because they wouldn't give out what medication the elderly got before she finally was informed that it was the standard "end of life" morphine drip. The patient was moved to ICU and is still alive. 

 

The famous Swedish solidarity works in many different ways

16 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

Swedish media reported of one close relative who had to threaten the retirement home with going to the press because they wouldn't give out what medication the elderly got before she finally was informed that it was the standard "end of life" morphine drip. The patient was moved to ICU and is still alive. 

 

Interesting, I got exactly the same info, 1st hand, from retirement home staff in France and in Germany. Starting at a certain age high doses of morphine instead of real treatment. Orders from above. Fortunately the nurses refused to obey.

So if this happened in Sweden, then rest assured this happens in lockdown countries such as France and Germany too. This is despite the fact that the hospitals are empty, and would have capacity to treat them. 

Anyone who has followed what Mike Ryan has been saying throughout this pandemic will know exactly what he meant.

 

Mike Ryan has been on record for saying previously that social distancing alone will not deal with the virus, that countries had to test and isolate the infected, and take the fight to the virus.

 

Mike Ryan was right. He is obviously no huge believer in enforced social distancing, and hence his praise for the Swedish model, which is characterised by an absence of enforced social distancing, was meant exactly as it sounds. Mike Ryan does not believe that mandatory social distancing is necessary. He made clear that Sweden's model of asking people to self-isolate if appropriate was working and was the best way of dealing with the pandemic. 

 

This Swedish approach, of not using enforced social distancing, except for minor exceptions, was in place since the very start. This is what Mike Ryan praised. Not anything that was put in place later. Somebody on here was trying to spin this news in completely the wrong way.

 

Obviously Mike Ryan has looked at the mortality rate in Sweden, which is around 0.02 per cent of the population. 

 

No doubt Mike Ryan, who is not a fan of enforced social distancing, but is a proponent of mass testing, would also advocate more testing is done.

 

Much like was done in New Zealand and Australia. It was said on here that it was their social distancing that got the virus under control there, it was not. It was New Zealand's and Australia's testing which is among the highest anywhere on the planet.

 

If Sweden had tested as well, like Norway, it would also have far less deaths. However, in its approach to social distancing, which is what was praised, Mike Ryan confirmed, that Sweden has it absolutely right. Go for voluntary compliance.

 

Mike Ryan is worth listening to.

29 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

Interesting, I got exactly the same info, 1st hand, from retirement home staff in France and in Germany. Starting at a certain age high doses of morphine instead of real treatment. Orders from above. Fortunately the nurses refused to obey.

 

What happened in Sweden wasn't age based. It was the standard end of life treatment, give the patient morphine instead of treatment to make death painless and then wait. What's appalling with the Swedish story is that the elderly patient responded just fine to treatment when they finally were forced to give it. 

 

They took the deliberate decision to not give it until they were forced to because it was an elderly. 

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

This Swedish approach, of not using enforced social distancing, except for minor exceptions, was in place since the very start. This is what Mike Ryan praised. Not anything that was put in place later. Somebody on here was trying to spin this news in completely the wrong way.

 

Obviously Mike Ryan has looked at the mortality rate in Sweden, which is around 0.02 per cent of the population. 

 

Mike Ryan is knowledgeable of course. He probably also looked at the more relevant statistics that Sweden's mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants is up to the tenth worst in the world now, take away small "not real" countries like San Marino and Sint Maarten etc. and it is the seventh worst. 

 

Statistics from worldometer, sort by deaths per population

33 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

What happened in Sweden wasn't age based. It was the standard end of life treatment, give the patient morphine instead of treatment to make death painless and then wait. 

 

Well, if it is retirement homes then it is obviously somehow age based, you're not in a retirement home before you're retired and need care ????

8 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

Mike Ryan is knowledgeable of course. He probably also looked at the more relevant statistics that Sweden's mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants is up to the tenth worst in the world now, take away small "not real" countries like San Marino and Sint Maarten etc. and it is the seventh worst. 

 

Statistics from worldometer, sort by deaths per population

By any measure Sweden has very few deaths, 0.02 per cent of the population. You can claim that it is in the top ten, but in Sweden 0.02 per cent of the population have died. That is a miniscule number which indicates that enforced social distancing is unnecessary, exactly what Mike Ryan was trying to convey.

 

Another point, someone else on here claimed that Sweden's economy will not be in better shape than other countries. This is not correct. Sweden's economy is forecast to contract by 7% due to global economic conditions. However, the UK is predicted to contract by 19%.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/long-lockdown-shrink-uk-economy-fifth-2020-study-coronavirus

 

Quite a major difference. Sweden will be in better shape.

On 5/1/2020 at 7:55 AM, smutcakes said:

Envy them that they have the space, wealth, economic set up to do this. Many countries/people do not have this option. They cannot separate, work from home. How did the relatively relaxed Singapore model work out for the migrant workers?

Which makes the lockdowns in countries like India even more insane.

 

If no space at home, multiple generations and sometimes different families in one dwelling, shared sanitary facilities, limited water supply, a cash based economy with no social security safety net - all teams a lockdown will inevitably result in a super-spreading community, like a massive Diamond Princess.

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

However, the UK is predicted to contract by 19%.

You should try reading the articles you quote from. It is 19% if the lockdown lasts until April 2021

And that is exactly what Neil Ferguson is advocating.

 

That Britain should remain in lockdown until a vaccine is found.

 

The article also says:

 

"It said even with severe containment measures remaining in place only until the end of June and with some easing of restrictions in the coming weeks, the economy would shrink by 12% this year."

 

Lockdown until end of May looks very possible in the UK.

 

So if anything it looks like the economy of the UK will be, at least, almost twice as badly affected as Sweden's, where the forecast is 6.9%, but potentially three times as badly affected if people like Neil Ferguson have their way.

14 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

That's a nice story for the media, but it's completely false. I've been in Japan since late March, back then Tokyo was just as packed as ever and most people were not wearing masks or social distancing at all. They only seriously started after April 8. I know many people in Japan who have been sick in the past few months but were refused testing and sent back home. The criteria for testing was so strict that even people who had fever and pneumonia were turned away. The official numbers are a joke.

 

As for antibodies - it's certain that they provide some immunity for some period of time - the only question is how immune and for how long. Pretending that they do not provide immunity is just ridiculous and those "experts" who doubt it are driven by political or other agenda, not science.

You have taken  my comment out of context. I do not deny that there is a Covid19 epidemic in Japan. Considering the past experience with high seasonal respiratory infections it is to be expected. I even pointed out that the Covid 19 spread is why the Olympics were postponed. However, my point was that Japanese cultural practices most certainly have had an impact on the transmission of the  disease.  

 

You say my position is  "false". well, my  statements are based on established  conclusions derived from peer reviewed data and studies and public health fundamentals.  According to you the following  established facts are "false";

 

1. Personal hygiene and public sanitation are one of the critical factors in the transmission of  infectious respiratory diseases.  If you  were in Japan, as was I, you will agree that Japan has one of the highest  levels of public sanitation and hygiene. Public  washrooms are spotless, and people are more likely to wash their  hands. People do not throw their used tissue on the ground, nor do they cough/spit/pick their nose/teeth in public.

 

2. Yes, personal space  is at a premium in Japan, but surely you have noticed that people have been wearing face masks. Failure to wear the mask on the train is a social wrong.

 

3. For someone who has such a deep insight of Japanese culture, I will direct you to  Prof.  Kazuto Suzuki of Hokkaido University who summed up the accepted characteristic of Japan that its social and cultural norms  impose self-discipline and obedience to official guidance as a key factor in the reduction of the spread of communicable diseases;  “If you don’t take care of yourself and become ill, that is taken as causing problems for other people.” . 

 

Yes, there is a Covid19 epidemic in Japan. It would be much worse if the Japanese were not as clean, respectful of others as they are and if they were in the habit of slobbering over others or being close talkers as some westerners are.  Japanese people are more likely to consider their actions in respect to the impact upon others than  many other cultures.

 

In respect to antibodies,  maybe there are antibodies, but are you able to  provide one study one credible study that says there are long term antibodies? Until  that happens it is irresponsible to make the claim that there is long term  immunity.  If there was a certainty, we would not  be subject to  reinfection from common colds caused by corona viruses would we? Immunity is  virus dependent and the evidence is not there yet. The people pointing this out have no vested interest. However, the vendors  of many of the antibody tests do. There isn't even a consistency or reliability established for many of the antibody tests on the market. This is why several countries have refused many of the tests entry. (Examples are Australia and Canada which have insisted upon proven accuracy.)