Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[MikeyIdea]

12 hours ago, Logosone said:

That chart ends on May 11th and Sweden has seen some of the greatest falls in new cases very recently.

Just wait until the 4 day holiday is over. The numbers are low because only hospital deaths are counted now. You have to wait until Sunday 31 May to see the true figure, that means that Monday to Fridays figures are in the graphs.

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[pineapple01]

Just now, MikeyIdea said:

Just wait until the 4 day holiday is over. The numbers are low because only hospital deaths are counted now. You have to wait until Sunday 31 May to see the true figure, that means that Monday to Fridays figures are inthe graphs 

 

Just now, MikeyIdea said:

Just wait until the 4 day holiday is over. The numbers are low because only hospital deaths are counted now. You have to wait until Sunday 31 May to see the true figure, that means that Monday to Fridays figures are inthe graphs 

Their next 4 day Holiday generally falls 3 Days after the last one. Bunch of Lefty Snowflakes

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

If governmental regulations of social distancing and lockdowns were truly effective, we would see spikes in places like Austria. 

 

Well, that's exactly right.

 

The mandatory lockdown proponents are hoist by their own petard. If their theory worked, then obviously abandoning lockdown should result in spikes. It didn't.

 

This is what the JP Morgan study was saying. Net result is that lockdowns were useless.

[MikeyIdea]

2 hours ago, pineapple01 said:

 

Their next 4 day Holiday generally falls 3 Days after the last one. Bunch of Lefty Snowflakes

Time for a lesson about Sweden. It was Ascension Day on Thursday and Friday is a public holiday in Sweden. Most of Thursday to Sunday's death are not reported. They will come on Monday to Friday. The best day to get an accurate picture of deaths during the week in Sweden is therefore Saturday or Sunday. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[MikeyIdea]

19 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

I can't help feeling that the only meaningful number is the 'deaths per million of population'.

 

In that respect Sweden stands at 396 with only 4 major countries (Belgium 801, Italy 613, Spain 541, and UK 541 ) higher.

It's quite good but it's missing the time perspective though. The Scandinavian countries were late into the pandemic, most other countries in Europe are 2 to 4 weeks ahead. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[MikeyIdea]

17 hours ago, Logosone said:

That chart ends on May 11th and Sweden has seen some of the greatest falls in new cases very recently.

 

Anyway, look at this chart, which gives deaths per million, since many people insist on this measure, though clearly it does favour countries with very large populations. Even taking this measure, Sweden is not doing so bad:

 

It doesn't take the time perspective into consideration. It's a simplification where all countries are displayed as if they got the virus on the same day... Use number of days from first death for all countries and you'll get a totally different picture. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[balo]

After today's daily press conference Sweden will have more than 4000 deaths. 

When Anders Tegnell was interviewed by Norwegian TV last week he claimed that Norway will catch Sweden after a few months , so he actually believe Norway will have up to 2000 deaths.
That is a crazy statement really, will never happen. Why? Norwegians are opening up slowly, people are more careful now and keep social distancing, compared to a few months ago.   We will not walk around and hug each other.  Ask Tegnell and he will be clear about both Norway and Denmark will have  the biggest problems, not Sweden. I never understand this guy,  if he is right he is a genius.   If he is wrong he should look for another job. 



  

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

That chart is quite useless as it doesn't take the time perspective into concideration. It's a simplification where all countries are displayed as if they got the virus on the same day. 

That's not true of course, it has a time perspective, which runs from Jan 31 to May 24, and it is useful to see the confirmed deaths of Sweden are not the worst in that time period.

 

Nevertheless, if you would look at the 7 day rolling average for Sweden only, you can see clearly that the curve has started to bend, has started to come down, and the "time perspective" merely means that the full reduction in Sweden's death figure is still to come. But the signs are clearly visible. So basically Sweden's figures will be even better.

 

 

[scubascuba3]

21 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

It doesn't take the time perspective into consideration. It's a simplification where all countries are displayed as if they got the virus on the same day... Use number of days from first death for all countries and you'll get a totally different picture. 

Presumably Russia's deaths are so low because of the time delay between catching it and dying, I'd expect that to increase sharply soon unless they have a miracle cure from China

Edited May 25, 2020 by scubascuba3

[nauseus]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's not true of course, it has a time perspective, which runs from Jan 31 to May 24, and it is useful to see the confirmed deaths of Sweden are not the worst in that time period.

 

Nevertheless, if you would look at the 7 day rolling average for Sweden only, you can see clearly that the curve has started to bend, has started to come down, and the "time perspective" merely means that the full reduction in Sweden's death figure is still to come. But the signs are clearly visible. So basically Sweden's figures will be even better.

 

 

These log scale charts and dubious source data really help some people out.

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Presumably Russia's deaths are so low because of the time delay between catching it and dying, I'd expect that to increase sharply soon unless they have a miracle cure from China

You can clearly see the difference here, Russia's rolling average still points up, Sweden's has started to fall already:

 

 

[farang51]

27 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

It's quite good but it's missing the time perspective though. The Scandinavian countries were late into the pandemic, most other countries in Europe are 2 to 4 weeks ahead. 

Quite right. I find this comparison very good:

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=swe&areas=dnk&areas=fra&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=deaths

You can compare where other countries were at the same relative time and it is clear that Sweden is doing worse than even some of the worst-hit countries in Europe - despite longer time to react. Sweden will soon overtake France in deaths per million. There is a downwards direction in the numbers the last few days, but as you mentioned earlier, that is probably because of late reporting.

 

I can only find one argument in favour of Sweden: If we get a second or third wave this fall and next year, they may be better protected if there is no vaccine or better treatment. If we do get better treatment (Remsedivir should make a difference) and/or a vaccine within the next year a lot of people will have died in vain in Sweden.

[MikeyIdea]

21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's not true of course, it has a time perspective, which runs from Jan 31 to May 24, and it is useful to see the confirmed deaths of Sweden are not the worst in that time period.

You get an accurate slope in a graph with a time axis that uses the same time as base for all. 

 

What you have in that graph is data over 2 months for some countries and 3 months for other countries displayed using the same time perspective. That understate the increase for countries that has been in the game a shorter time and vice versa. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[MikeyIdea]

44 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Presumably Russia's deaths are so low because of the time delay between catching it and dying, I'd expect that to increase sharply soon unless they have a miracle cure from China

No, its because Russia use totally a different criteria to report covid-19 deaths. Google it, lots of newspapers have reported it. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You can clearly see the difference here, Russia's rolling average still points up, Sweden's has started to fall already:

 

 

I wonder if that's because significant infection started spreading later in Russia than Sweden? ????

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, farang51 said:

Quite right. I find this comparison very good:

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=swe&areas=dnk&areas=fra&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=deaths

You can compare where other countries were at the same relative time and it is clear that Sweden is doing worse than even some of the worst-hit countries in Europe - despite longer time to react. Sweden will soon overtake France in deaths per million. There is a downwards direction in the numbers the last few days, but as you mentioned earlier, that is probably because of late reporting.

 

That's just the seven day rolling average. If you compare Sweden to the rest of Europe, Sweden is not doing worse than the worst hit countries in Europe at all. And indeed the curve has started to bend and is coming down for Sweden.

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I wonder if that's because significant infection started spreading later in Russia than Sweden? ????

It's got to be.

 

Though of course with Russia, I doubt we have as reliable numbers as we have with Sweden.

[scubascuba3]

11 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

No, its because Russia have totally a different criteria to report covid-19 deaths. Google it, lots of newspapers have reported it. 

Yes under reporting like many countries but i did just see this.

 

"Russia is expected to register a spike in mortality for the month of May, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said on Friday, as the country battles a coronavirus outbreak"

[nauseus]

Just now, Logosone said:

That's just the seven day rolling average. If you compare Sweden to the rest of Europe, Sweden is not doing worse than the worst hit countries in Europe at all. And indeed the curve has started to bend and is coming down for Sweden.

Ah! Just back to ignoring population numbers and densities again.

 

[MikeyIdea]

46 minutes ago, balo said:

After today's daily press conference Sweden will have more than 4000 deaths. 

When Anders Tegnell was interviewed by Norwegian TV last week he claimed that Norway will catch Sweden after a few months , so he actually believe Norway will have up to 2000 deaths.
That is a crazy statement really, will never happen. Why? Norwegians are opening up slowly, people are more careful now and keep social distancing, compared to a few months ago.   We will not walk around and hug each other.  Ask Tegnell and he will be clear about both Norway and Denmark will have  the biggest problems, not Sweden. I never understand this guy,  if he is right he is a genius.   If he is wrong he should look for another job. 

I also think Anders Tegnell is wrong there. Social distancing is much more respected in Norway. 

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Ah! Just back to ignoring population numbers and densities again.

We've already looked at deaths by reference to population. Again Sweden performs rather well:

 

 

[MikeyIdea]

42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's just the seven day rolling average.

No it's not. It's number of days since 0.1 daily deaths (per million) first recorded. Please look before you write. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[MikeyIdea]

"People aged over 80 have made up 66 percent of those who have died from coronavirus in Sweden, but less than five percent of those treated in intensive care." 

 

https://www.thelocal.se/20200522/less-than-5-of-swedens-coronavirus-patients-in-intensive-care-are-over-80/amp

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

No it's not. It's number of days since 0.1 daily deaths (per million) first recorded. Please look before you write. 

It's the seven day rolling average of new deaths per million by number of days since a 0.1 average of deaths per million was first recorded. It's says so at the top, impossible to miss. I looked before I wrote, please don't make unfounded comments that have no basis in reality. It is a seven day rolling average.

 

 

[scubascuba3]

I wonder how Cambodia and Laos have done so well with zero deaths, maybe every country should look and learn from them

[MikeyIdea]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

It's the seven day rolling average of new deaths per million by number of days since a 0.1 average of deaths per million was first recorded. It's says so at the top, impossible to miss. I looked before I wrote, please don't make unfounded comments that have no basis in reality. It is a seven day rolling average.

 

Why did you answer a post which was discussing and linking to a graph using the same time perspective for all countries with "That's just" then? 

 

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's just the seven day rolling average.

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[lkv]

I just wanted to show you guys a breakdown of deaths in Sweden by age groups, of this new flu that some may know as coronavirus.

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by lkv

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, lkv said:

I just wanted to show you guys a breakdown of deaths in Sweden per age groups, of this new flu some may know as coronavirus.

would be interesting to see of those which had the at risk pre existing conditions

[lkv]

14 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

would be interesting to see of those which had the at risk pre existing conditions

I agree with Sweden's model, I agree the majority were aged and with existing conditions, so influenza could have killed them also.

 

But somehow, when we talk about influenza, we don't become overly dramatic, describing the deaths as "mothers, fathers, grandmothers".

 

Decisions are made (or should be made) on statistics, and not emotions.

Edited May 25, 2020 by lkv

[scubascuba3]

15 minutes ago, lkv said:

I agree with Sweden's model, I agree the majority were aged and with existing conditions, so influenza could have killed them also.

 

But somehow, when we talk about influenza, we don't become overly dramatic, describing the deaths as "mothers, fathers, grandmothers".

 

Decisions are made (or should be made) on statistics, and not emotions.

Yes it's normalized to die with influenza, no big deal, never made the news