Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[Sujo]

On 5/22/2020 at 4:03 PM, transam said:

Then you will agree that whatever different countries do it works out much the same, UNLESS, a country is much warmer......Like LOS, Laos, Burma, Cambodia and Vietnam...

Nz isnt warm.

[chessman]

Significant that...
 

‘The predecessor of Sweden’s state epidemiologist has broken her silence on the country’s controversial coronavirus strategy, saying she now believes the authorities should have put in place tougher restrictions in the early stages of the pandemic to bring the virus under control.‘
 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/sweden-wrong-not-to-shut-down-says-former-state-epidemiologist

 

 

[lkv]

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

Significant that...
 

‘The predecessor of Sweden’s state epidemiologist has broken her silence on the country’s controversial coronavirus strategy, saying she now believes the authorities should have put in place tougher restrictions in the early stages of the pandemic to bring the virus under control.‘
 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/sweden-wrong-not-to-shut-down-says-former-state-epidemiologist

 

 

From your article: 

 

Annika Linde, who oversaw Sweden’s response to swine flu and Sars as state epidemiologist from 2005 to 2013, had until now expressed support for her country’s approach under her successor, Anders Tegnell. 

But she has now become the first member of the public health establishment to break ranks, saying she has changed her mind 

 

Well, that does not make her more of an expert than Tegnell now, does it?

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, lkv said:

Well, that does not make her more of an expert than Tegnell now, does it?

I would never claim she was. But it seems significant that she had supported the policy but has changed her mind.

 

there are people posting in his forum who still seem 100% sure that what Sweden doing are correct... and at the same time someone who clearly has a very good understanding of the situation has decided that Sweden should have been tougher.

[Okis]

1. You cant get a accurate number of infected people in my country since only people in intensive care gets tested. They won't test you unless you already in there and need help breathing. We had a young man in his 20's die the other week because of this. They just told him to stay home, few days later he calls his mother saying he can barely breath. Ambulance showed up but he couldn't be saved. 

 

2. Tegnell does what the ruling political block tells him.  The reason they haven't enforced restrictions is because the rulers are in real danger of loosing the next election. They have already broken the economy so even a partial lockdown will for sure destroy the last bit and they will for sure loose power next election. 

 

3. Sweden have over 4000 deaths with a population at only 10 million. And it is still not showing any signs of slowing down. 

 

4. Elders are only given morphine when coming in at intensive care, nothing else and no attempts of saving them. 

 

4.Neighbouring countries are about to open the borders, but neither of them will open the border towards Sweden. Swedes that currently are in Sweden will most likely be banned from entering most countries outside of EU for atleast 1 year. They just haven't accepted it yet and are stilk planning holidays abroad. 

 

 

 

 

[scubascuba3]

34 minutes ago, chessman said:

there are people posting in his forum who still seem 100% sure that what Sweden doing are correct... and at the same time someone who clearly has a very good understanding of the situation has decided that Sweden should have been tougher.

i know that killing the worlds economies was the wrong thing to do, but it will only be clear to everyone in many months time

[chessman]

15 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

i know that killing the worlds economies was the wrong thing to do, but it will only be clear to everyone in many months time

And most governments would say that this is a public health crisis that needs to be sorted first in order to normalise the economy.

 

Tourism/International travel 

live sporting events

Restaurants/bars

 

all huge sectors, employing millions, that will find it very difficult to keep their head above water, almost whatever a government decides to do. 

[vermin on arrival]

On 5/23/2020 at 3:00 PM, scubascuba3 said:

Interesting "BBC Hardtalk" video on YouTube with the man behind the Swedish approach "Anders Tegnell". Worth a look. I haven't bothered adding link here in case it gets deleted

  Yes this was a very interesting interview. He was very thoughtful and open and honest and not polemical. I was impressed. Since covid will most likely be endemic, I think even if in the short term they will suffer more from infections and death, they very well may be in a better situation in the long term than their neighbors who have done a better job w/infections and death in the short term. Of course, we won't know that for quite some time. The argument that there may be no immunity from getting covid seems invalid.

 

  It was also interesting to hear him talk about the public health problems that come from school closures and lockdowns which he says also need to be taken very seriously.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

4 hours ago, farang51 said:

I can only find one argument in favour of Sweden: If we get a second or third wave this fall and next year, they may be better protected if there is no vaccine or better treatment.

Isn't that the whole point in the Swedish strategy? While the rest of the world will still be struggling with this for 1-2 more years, Sweden will be less affected by a second wave. This isn't a sprint - it's a marathon - all these countries that are "doing better than Sweden" didn't escape the threat - they just postponed it.

 

4 hours ago, farang51 said:

If we do get better treatment (Remsedivir should make a difference) and/or a vaccine within the next year a lot of people will have died in vain in Sweden.

Remedesivir apparently does help, but it's not a cure. As for vaccines it's unlikely that one will be developed, tested, and distributed to billions of people in time to stop the second wave.

 

Another data point is Japan - they just lifted the state of emergency from the entire country and there were only about 50 confirmed cases in Tokyo last week. Japan was one of the first to get cases outside China, and they had very little social isolation right up until early April, and even when they declared a state of emergency on April 8 it wasn't a lockdown - just a request for businesses to shorten hours or close and for people to avoid social contact - none of it was enforced. Basically the same approach as Sweden.

 

There's a lot of wacky theories out there as for the Japanese "success", but my own theory is that it wasn't a success at all - on the contrary - Tokyo is probably the first major city outside China to already have some herd immunity - that's the only logical explanation considering the population density and lack of social isolation right until the peak. We will know for sure once proper antibodies surveys are conducted.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

I wonder how Cambodia and Laos have done so well with zero deaths, maybe every country should look and learn from them

Are you joking or serious? If serious- it's quite simple, if you don't test you get zero deaths. Realistically though there probably were some deaths, but no massive spread like in colder countries. Likely factors are lower population density, higher temperatures, and leaner population.

[farang51]

26 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Isn't that the whole point in the Swedish strategy? While the rest of the world will still be struggling with this for 1-2 more years, Sweden will be less affected by a second wave.

They will probably have fewer infections in a second wave as those with antibodies will slow down the virus even if there is no herd immunity. And they are nowhere near herd immunity. However, the preliminary numbers indicate it will only be slightly fewer infections. Hopefully, we will soon get more accurate information about the number of people with antibodies. In Sweden and elsewhere.

 

Quote

Remedesivir apparently does help, but it's not a cure. As for vaccines it's unlikely that one will be developed, tested, and distributed to billions of people in time to stop the second wave.

 

Remsedivir is only the first step. It will help some, but now the scientists know that it is possible to treat the decease; thus, they will come up with other medicines. Maybe a mix of medicines will give the best result as with HIV. You are absolutely right in pointing out the distribution of a vaccine; not many consider this and it will be a huge problem.

 

Quote

There's a lot of wacky theories out there as for the Japanese "success", but my own theory is that it wasn't a success at all - on the contrary - Tokyo is probably the first major city outside China to already have some herd immunity

 

I do not think any country is even close to achieving herd immunity. The experts I have heard from all say that achieving heard immunity from natural infections will take from 1 to 3 years. Also, if Japan had enough infections to achieve herd immunity, they would have had many more deaths.

[Scott]

Unsubstantiated post reported and removed. 

 

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

And most governments would say that this is a public health crisis that needs to be sorted first in order to normalise the economy.

 

Yes they will say that because it's such a massive mistake. i guess you haven't lost your job or been impacted yet?

[scubascuba3]

47 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Are you joking or serious? If serious- it's quite simple, if you don't test you get zero deaths. Realistically though there probably were some deaths, but no massive spread like in colder countries. Likely factors are lower population density, higher temperatures, and leaner population.

Semi joking, some people seriously think they've done a good job, most likely luck more than anything and minimal testing, mind you little testing didn't do Japan much harm

[PingRoundTheWorld]

3 minutes ago, farang51 said:

And they are nowhere near herd immunity.

You're saying this based on what? From official survey results we know for sure at least 7% of people in Stockholm already had antibodies as of late April - which means they were infected in early April - it takes a few weeks to build antibodies. It's been almost two months since early April, and peak new confirmed cases was April 22, so it's safe to assume the current percentage of people with antibodies is much higher than 7%.

 

Note you don't actually need 60-80% of the population for herd immunity. Those figures assume a totally homogeneous population constantly bouncing into each other and taking zero precautions -  this is not the situation in real life and especially not this year. Models that take into account non-homogeneous populations and minimal precautions predict herd immunity at 20-30% of the population - something that's likely already happened or close to in Stockholm - which is probably why cases have been declining over the past month. A good read here: https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

 

12 minutes ago, farang51 said:

I do not think any country is even close to achieving herd immunity. The experts I have heard from all say that achieving heard immunity from natural infections will take from 1 to 3 years. Also, if Japan had enough infections to achieve herd immunity, they would have had many more deaths.

See above about herd immunity. As for the lack of deaths in Japan I think it could be explained by people generally being healthier and more active. Obesity rate in the US is 30-40%, in Japan it's 3-4%. This can also explain the lack of deaths in other countries where obesity is not a big problem - like Thailand!

[vermin on arrival]

7 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

You're saying this based on what? From official survey results we know for sure at least 7% of people in Stockholm already had antibodies as of late April - which means they were infected in early April - it takes a few weeks to build antibodies. It's been almost two months since early April, and peak new confirmed cases was April 22, so it's safe to assume the current percentage of people with antibodies is much higher than 7%.

The hard talk episode was on May 19 and Tegnell said they were at 10-15% then.

 

10 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

See above about herd immunity. As for the lack of deaths in Japan I think it could be explained by people generally being healthier and more active. Obesity rate in the US is 30-40%, in Japan it's 3-4%. This can also explain the lack of deaths in other countries where obesity is not a big problem - like Thailand!

Yes, the unhealthy societies are getting hit really hard. It's really amazing looking at the drop in all the numbers from Japan.

[farang51]

3 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

You're saying this based on what? From official survey results we know for sure at least 7% of people in Stockholm already had antibodies as of late April - which means they were infected in early April - it takes a few weeks to build antibodies. It's been almost two months since early April, and peak new confirmed cases was April 22, so it's safe to assume the current percentage of people with antibodies is much higher than 7%.

 

See above about herd immunity. As for the lack of deaths in Japan I think it could be explained by people generally being healthier and more active. Obesity rate in the US is 30-40%, in Japan it's 3-4%. This can also explain the lack of deaths in other countries where obesity is not a big problem - like Thailand!

Mind you, Stockholm is only one city and by far the worst-hit area of Sweden; thus, the percentage of people with antibodies will be much lower in the rest of the country. I am eagerly awaiting newer numbers of people with antibodies in Sweden and other countries. I surely do hope that I am wrong and that they are close to herd immunity (whenever that occur).

 

Regarding Japan, yes not so many fat people; however, they do have an older population and age seems to be very important with deaths from COVID-19.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Isn't that the whole point in the Swedish strategy? While the rest of the world will still be struggling with this for 1-2 more years, Sweden will be less affected by a second wave. This isn't a sprint - it's a marathon - all these countries that are "doing better than Sweden" didn't escape the threat - they just postponed it.

You might well be right, but nobody can be 100% sure about things. There are a lot of unknowns there, 2nd waves, levels of immunity.
 

 

[chessman]

7 minutes ago, farang51 said:

I am eagerly awaiting newer numbers of people with antibodies in Sweden and other countries. I surely do hope that I am wrong and that they are close to herd immunity

Every antibody test that has been done recently has seemed to show a lower percentage of positives than what was expected. The recent testing of MLB employees in the US is another example, less than 1% infected in that test.

 

The idea that Herd immunity has managed to come to these Asian countries without anyone noticing seems almost impossible.

[chessman]

23 minutes ago, DeadBite said:

Keep the propaganda going Thaivisa.. removing my posts as "Unsubstantiated" while letting everything else going.

 

I will keep posting it, because it is true.

The Millerites would have said the same thing and look what happened to them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Disappointment

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Are you joking or serious? If serious- it's quite simple, if you don't test you get zero deaths. 

Precisely.

 

The same applies in Japan where very little testing was done until a few days ago.

 

That could equally explain Japan's exceedingly low numbers.

 

Just as it explains Thailand's low numbers.

[faraday]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

Precisely.

 

The same applies in Japan where very little testing was done until a few days ago.

 

That could equally explain Japan's exceedingly low numbers.

 

Just as it explains Thailand's low numbers.

But does "little testing" explain the low mortality rate...?

 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

8 hours ago, chessman said:

The idea that Herd immunity has managed to come to these Asian countries without anyone noticing seems almost impossible.

How would they know? They have yet to conduct any large scale antibodies testing - they've been talking about it since April but latest news is that it'll only start in June - if it doesn't get delayed again.

 

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

The same applies in Japan where very little testing was done until a few days ago.

That could equally explain Japan's exceedingly low numbers.

Just as it explains Thailand's low numbers.

True to a certain degree - you can "hide" the number of cases by simply not testing. You CANNOT however hide the number of dead - at least not beyond a certain point. Neither Japan nor Thailand have had an unusual amount of dead, and overall mortality in Japan is actually lower than previous years.

[chessman]

50 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

How would they know? They have yet to conduct any large scale antibodies testing -

Because recent antibody testing has shown lower than expected results almost everywhere. 

Because the two places that probably have the highest level of people who have caught the disease are New York and Bergamo, both are not thought to be close to 50% infected and both had massive spikes in their death rates.

Because even if you massively reduce the ifr for Asian countries due to general good health (this seems a stretch to me) you are still talking about multiple tens of thousands of deaths that nobody is noticing.

It all just seems very unlikely.

[Scott]

Inflammatory post and reply reported and removed.  

 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, faraday said:

But does "little testing" explain the low mortality rate...?

 

Think. A country does not test if a person has Covid19.

 

That person dies. 

 

How could you possibly know if that person died of Covid19 if he was never tested?

 

His death would be attributed to another plausible cause, heart attack, pneumonia, anything. But Covid19. Because he was never tested. So no way to know he died of Covid19.

 

Hence the Covid 19 mortality figure stays low.

 

Witness Nigeria, Thailand, Japan.

[mikebike]

19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Think. A country does not test if a person has Covid19.

 

That person dies. 

 

How could you possibly know if that person died of Covid19 if he was never tested?

Hmmm... tested post mortem?

[PingRoundTheWorld]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

Because recent antibody testing has shown lower than expected results almost everywhere. 

Because the two places that probably have the highest level of people who have caught the disease are New York and Bergamo, both are not thought to be close to 50% infected and both had massive spikes in their death rates.

What makes you think infection levels in NY are higher than Tokyo? Why would they be? Population density in Tokyo is high, and it literally has the all of busiest train stations in the world. Commuter trains were packed full right up until late March*. The trains never stopped running, there was no lockdown at any point, and other than voluntary action like shortening business hours and closing some businesses like bars and department stores there was very little done to curb spread. It's completely illogical to think that Tokyo somehow miraculously managed to avoid the explosive spread that similar cities suffered.

 

* If you've ever experienced commuter trains in Tokyo you'd know people are packed like sardines and your face is centimeters away from other riders. Ideal conditions for a virus to spread quickly and utterly impossible that it didn't happen.

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, mikebike said:

Hmmm... tested post mortem?

It's not done, doctors don't do it, especially not in Thailand, because autopsies are cumbersome, expensive and those doing it run the risk of contracting Covid 19 if the patient is suspected of Covid 19. Obviously doctors are not keen on doing this at all. 

 

It's only done in very exceptional cases even in medically advanced countries.

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

What makes you think infection levels in NY are higher than Tokyo? Why would they be? Population density in Tokyo is high, and it literally has the all of busiest train stations in the world. Commuter trains were packed full right up until late March*. The trains never stopped running, there was no lockdown at any point, and other than voluntary action like shortening business hours and closing some businesses like bars and department stores there was very little done to curb spread. It's completely illogical to think that Tokyo somehow miraculously managed to avoid the explosive spread that similar cities suffered.

 

* If you've ever experienced commuter trains in Tokyo you'd know people are packed like sardines and your face is centimeters away from other riders. Ideal conditions for a virus to spread quickly and utterly impossible that it didn't happen.

Indeed people were partying and going to bars in Tokyo in April when everywhere in Europe was already closed for lockdown.

 

If anyone seriously believes that in a country with a population of 127 million there are 830 deaths and 16000 cases I'd like to meet them.

 

Clearly Japan's low figures are a result of not testing. Just like in Thailand. Just like in Nigeria. Just like in Vietnam.