Thailand 'not free from pandemic threat yet'

[webfact]

Thailand 'not free from pandemic threat yet'

By THE NATION

 

 

Thailand cannot be considered safe from the Covid-19 pandemic, although there have been no new domestic cases for over 28 days, as the virus could spread at anytime, Dr Yong Poovorawan, Chulalongkorn Hospital clinical virology expert, warned on his Facebook page.

 

The doctor said on Thursday (June 11) that if the illness takes 14 days for incubation, 28 days will be enough to demonstrate that a country is free from the virus.

 

Covid-19, however, has spread not only in Thailand but also in other countries across the world. The infected countries in Asia, for example, are India and Bangladesh, which is in the same zone as Thailand, according to the epidemiological view.

 

Dr Yong concluded his post that Thailand needed to continue preventive measures, and it was not easy to get rid of the virus completely from Thailand and other countries in the world.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389441

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-06-11

 

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[Thaiwrath]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

Dr Yong Poovorawan, Chulalongkorn Hospital clinical virology expert,

How much are these people getting paid to keep the fear factor among the populace ?

Every day a new "specialist" spouts the same thing.

[Boomer6969]

4 minutes ago, Thaiwrath said:

How much are these people getting paid to keep the fear factor among the populace ?

Got thoughts about moving to Brazil, Perou or US?

[YetAnother]

23 minutes ago, webfact said:

and it was not easy to get rid of the virus completely from Thailand and other countries in the world.

very insightful; this guy's 15 minutes of fame; (and he doesnt seem all that bright)

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

31 minutes ago, Thaiwrath said:

How much are these people getting paid to keep the fear factor among the populace ?

Every day a new "specialist" spouts the same thing.

 

Maybe you should check with the U.S. about that:

 

From today's NY Times:

 

Quote

The U.S. surpassed two million coronavirus cases on Wednesday. Infections are rising in 21 states

As the pandemic’s grim numbers continue to climb, President Trump and lawmakers in both parties are exhibiting their usual short attention span, alarming public health experts who worry that a second wave of infections could deliver a punch more brutal than the first while the nation’s political leaders are looking the other way.

 

And that's after widely abandoning their prior (and broadly inconsistent and patchwork) social distancing policies.

 

Among the other headlines today from the NY Times:

 

Quote

As Virus Infections Surge, Countries End Lockdowns

Still struggling with rising coronavirus cases, India, Mexico, Russia, Iran and Pakistan have decided they must end lockdowns and restart their economies.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-1586a135

 

And this from the major hospital network in Arizona state in the U.S.:

 

Quote

 

We have seen a steady climb of COVID-19 cases in Arizona over the last two weeks. This trend is concerning to us, and also correlates with a rise in cases that we are seeing in our hospital ICUs. (1/3)

Banner Health@BannerHealth

 

Our ICUs are very busy caring for the sickest of the sick who are battling COVID-19. Since May 15, ventilated COVID-19 patients have quadrupled. Banner Health also recently reached capacity for patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) treatment.

 

Thailand MAY remain OK as long as it basically keeps its borders closed except for people willing to undergo mandatory 14-day quarantines... But the CV is hardly done or waning in the world at large....

 

And if Thailand were to re-open its borders without requiring the mandatory quarantines, we'd likely be joining the woes in the rest of the world right now.

 

 

[Ketyo]

Why do these people talk as if they are 10 year olds explaining things to 5 year olds.

[JCP108]

What does "in the same zone as Thailand, according to the epidemiological view" mean?

 

Also, we should probably change "not easy to get rid of" to: "impossible to get rid of."

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The doctor said on Thursday (June 11) that if the illness takes 14 days for incubation

In some rare fringe cases it might take 14 days for incubation but in nearly all of them you're getting ill inside just a few days.

 

It would be a mistake to assume 14 days incubation is the norm, because it definitely is not.

 

Getting ill enough to go to hospital can take much longer, in others you can get ill and be in hospital within a couple of days of symptoms showing up. Peoples bodies seem to react very differently to this disease.

 

[Hayduke]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand 'not free from pandemic threat yet'

 

This more than justifies a complete lockdown and a permanent state of emergency.

 

After all, no one can guarantee that the country will be completely safe a year from now…or five years from now…or even ten years from now. And diabolical new threats could appear from China evil farang countries without the slightest warning.

 

Only a strong and vigilant military government can ensure the people will enjoy a safe and prosperous future.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Hayduke said:

 

This more than justifies a complete lockdown and a permanent state of emergency.

 

After all, no one can guarantee that the country will be completely safe a year from now…or five years from now…or even ten years from now. And diabolical new threats could appear from China evil farang countries without the slightest warning.

 

Only a strong and vigilant military government can ensure the people will enjoy a safe and prosperous future.

 

 

 

The part that mystifies me in all of this is... as best as I can tell from all the science.... people can by and large effectively prevent transmission of the CV if they do a couple of things:

 

--wear a N95 mask or, if not avail, some other tight fitting variety

--maintain social distancing 2 meters as much as possible

--practice good hand hygiene/cleaning and avoid face touching contact

 

AFAICT, if everyone did that, while inconvenient, a lot of the business of the world and countries should be able to continue operating and not have to have everything shut down and people put out of work.

 

Of course, that also presumes that people don't act like CV idiots in Thai pubs by sharing drinks and food utensils from person to person, or like in America where rifle-toting thugs have been protesting that the CV restrictions impinge on their constitutional rights!

 

[JCP108]

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Maybe you should check with the U.S. about that:

 

From today's NY Times:

 

 

And that's after widely abandoning their prior (and broadly inconsistent and patchwork) social distancing policies.

 

Among the other headlines today from the NY Times:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-1586a135

 

And this from the major hospital network in Arizona state in the U.S.:

 

 

Thailand MAY remain OK as long as it basically keeps its borders closed except for people willing to undergo mandatory 14-day quarantines... But the CV is hardly done or waning in the world at large....

 

And if Thailand were to re-open its borders without requiring the mandatory quarantines, we'd likely be joining the woes in the rest of the world right now.

 

 

If one were to trust the NYT analyses and reporting, the actual numbers in Thailand might look a bit more like the rest of the world than tracked and reported...though not as bad. They calculate that in March, deaths were 4% higher in Thailand than expected given past data. If that were true for the first five months this year, that 4% bump would mean over 9,000 extra deaths.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

[SkyFax]

From the NY Times report as linked above:

 

Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes.

[Burma Bill]

6 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

How much are these people getting paid to keep the fear factor among the populace ?

Every day a new "specialist" spouts the same thing.

Of course! To keep the bars, pubs and clubs closed with alcohol ban!!!

[Boomer6969]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

If one were to trust the NYT analyses and reporting, the actual numbers in Thailand might look a bit more like the rest of the world than tracked and reported...though not as bad. They calculate that in March, deaths were 4% higher in Thailand than expected given past data. If that were true for the first five months this year, that 4% bump would mean over 9,000 extra deaths.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

To me these figures demonstrate that Thailand has done an outstanding job, with only a few countries coming up with 3%, while the leading nation of the world...

Anyway kudos to the Thais. 

[seancbk]

7 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

How much are these people getting paid to keep the fear factor among the populace ?

Every day a new "specialist" spouts the same thing.

 

Have you ever considered that perhaps experts have at least some idea what they are talking about?

 

 

[Sujo]

2 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

To me these figures demonstrate that Thailand has done an outstanding job, with only a few countries coming up with 3%, while the leading nation of the world...

Anyway kudos to the Thais. 

Joke of the day.

[brucec64]

5 hours ago, Ketyo said:

Why do these people talk as if they are 10 year olds explaining things to 5 year olds.

Based on a lot of comments I see here, 5 years old might be a little advanced...

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, SkyFax said:

From the NY Times report as linked above:

 

Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes.

 

Yes, but then the question would be, apart from whatever share COVID has of that increase, what non-COVID factors would be contributing to the overall increase.

 

For one thing, surely it's not going to be road deaths, since the whole CV lockdown thing here has drastically reduced those and associated injuries and hospitalizations during the time of its enforcement.

 

I would say, consistent with what epidemiologists have reported elsewhere, that it's very likely that the official publicly announced CV death count here is only some potentially small portion of all the actual CV-related deaths that have occurred during recent months. Due to lack of testing and perhaps the government's own reporting decisions.

 

 

[Matzzon]

Oh what a surprise! I guess no country is, because there is no vaccin yet. Not have to be Einstein for that, duh!

[robbioff]

10 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Maybe you should check with the U.S. about that:

 

From today's NY Times:

 

 

And that's after widely abandoning their prior (and broadly inconsistent and patchwork) social distancing policies.

 

Among the other headlines today from the NY Times:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-1586a135

 

And this from the major hospital network in Arizona state in the U.S.:

 

 

Thailand MAY remain OK as long as it basically keeps its borders closed except for people willing to undergo mandatory 14-day quarantines... But the CV is hardly done or waning in the world at large....

 

And if Thailand were to re-open its borders without requiring the mandatory quarantines, we'd likely be joining the woes in the rest of the world right now.

 

 

BS

[twocatsmac]

3 hours ago, seancbk said:

 

Have you ever considered that perhaps experts have at least some idea what they are talking about?

 

 

You forget also, that Thailand has farang medical experts with khaosan Road degrees longing for their barstools. 

 

 

 

 

[Reigntax]

11 hours ago, Ketyo said:

Why do these people talk as if they are 10 year olds explaining things to 5 year olds.

Because they are !

[SkyFax]

10 hours ago, JCP108 said:

They calculate that in March, deaths were 4% higher in Thailand than expected given past data. If that were true for the first five months this year, that 4% bump would mean over 9,000 extra deaths.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

While the NYT note says "Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes," there is no way from the NYT data itself to determine what component of the excess is and is not COVID-19 related.

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand cannot be considered safe from the Covid-19 pandemic, although there have been no new domestic cases for over 28 days, as the virus could spread at anytime, Dr Yong Poovorawan, Chulalongkorn Hospital clinical virology expert, warned on his Facebook page.

I'll be polite.... "shoemakers" this is just scaremongering to keep an emergency decree in place.

Time to open up fully domestically and get back to normal life.

[poskat]

15 hours ago, seancbk said:

 

Have you ever considered that perhaps experts have at least some idea what they are talking about?

 

 

when they are still talking about the virus as if catching it is a death sentence I dont.

Their initial panic when nothing was known about it was reasonable.

 

the problem with experts is their narrow-mindedness in terms of the overall effect on society as they talk about things in the abstract, their thinking is binary, while the world is multi-factorial with risk/benefit calculations going into every decision a person makes all day long

 

given how the virus has played out in thailand, in terms of symptomatic cases and deaths, i.e. a statistical blip in terms of the overall public health issues in thailand, they should be talking about how the shut down affects society when considering what to do now, and how it fits in with the other health issues that cause death.

 

no virus will be totally eliminated without a fully effective vaccine, which will not likely ever be developed

 

the issue now should be are the current measures and their widespread devastating impact on tens of millions of people commensurate with the death total (less than 60 over 5 months) from the virus

[3NUMBAS]

even with a mask if some joker farts in your general direction you could be in trouble

[3NUMBAS]

even with a mask if some joker farts in your general direction you could be in trouble