Tourism slump to weigh down Thailand economy for years: Report

[webfact]

Tourism slump to weigh down Thailand economy for years: Report

ASEANBUSINESS STAFF

 

 

THAILAND’S economy will not fully recover from the novel coronavirus pandemic for another two years, no thanks to the drag from an insipid tourism industry, one economist has warned.

 

Citi analyst Nalin Chutchotitham expects economic activity to rebound to 2019 levels only in mid-2022, as the killer contagion compounds structural issues such as an ageing population.

 

“It remains to be seen how Thailand would re-design and implement its development plan for the medium term,” she added, calling for new policy strategies on issues such as international trade, the digital economy, and building higher value-add industries like medical tourism.

 

Full story: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/asean-business/tourism-slump-to-weigh-down-thailand-economy-for-years-report

 

-- © Copyright THE BUSINESS TIMES 2020-06-17

 

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[Soikhaonoiken]

Thailand is no different from all Countries in the world which has suffered from the covid 19 pandemic, and it will take some Countries decades to recover. 

[RichardColeman]

The deaths of say 60 people in Thailand (or 1 day death toll on the road) destroying the entire Thai economy for two years seems a little silly to me

[sammieuk1]

Never mind you still have a world beating currency to count ????

[ezzra]

58 minutes ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Thailand is no different from all Countries in the world which has suffered from the covid 19 pandemic, and it will take some Countries decades to recover. 

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

[englishoak]

Wheres your hub now ?  ????

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

The deaths of say 60 people in Thailand (or 1 day death toll on the road) destroying the entire Thai economy for two years seems a little silly to me

While this is very true, any relaxation of border controls would be high risk as both China and now NZ have found. Regretfully, second waves of infection will inevitably occur in Thailand once air travel is commenced, and land borders are opened to visitors from outside Thailand, and quarantine rules are relaxed. It's inevitable  - and will only cease when population immunity is raised sufficiently to burn out the virus.

 

With Thailand's economic growth relying on continuing tourism, it would appear that there will be a government trade off between a higher death rate and tourist income. No avoiding it...  

 

   

[vinny41]

45 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

12% of Thailand GDP comes from foreign tourist arrivals Only an idiot would risk the other 88% of GDP by allowing unrestricted access to return without conditions such as quarantine

[alant]

The move away from tourism to alternative does not seem to have a plan apart from stifling tourism as you can see by the xenophobic no foreigner rules in many national tourist locations. 

[sweatalot]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Tourism slump to weigh down Thailand economy for years:

 ... recently I read that a majority of Thais don't want foreigners in the country

they will be happy, will they?

 

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The deaths of say 60 people in Thailand (or 1 day death toll on the road) destroying the entire Thai economy for two years seems a little silly to me

It isn't the Thai deaths that will cause disruption but the deaths and shutdowns in the tourist countries that Thailand relies on, the broke and the unemployed don't go on holiday nor do they buy Thai exports. 

[WineOh]

time to get humble now I say.

maybe a 2 for 1 on selected beers instead of the regular rip off prices in the likes of Samui & Phuket?

if the next time I go to a bar and see a small beer priced at over 70 baht I am walking straight back out the door.

[Benmart]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

For decades, the captains of this ship have steered the vessel without reliable maps or thoughts of the storms ahead. When it started to take on water, they used a sponge to soak up the water and rung it out inside the boat. Sadly, they won't go down with the ship when it sinks, but will merely board the nearby vessel named the MVS Foreign Bank Accounts.

[DrTuner]

Any change towards higher up in the value chain would mean better education. And educated people are the enemy of the usurpers. So it's a no-go for as long as they block all progress and continue selling the country to China to get their own pockets full.

[Aussieroaming]

At this stage of the pandemic it will be very risky to bring in any tourists unless they have either PCR testing procedures in place and/or quarantine. Even PCR testing prior to leaving would require a follow up test after arrival.

 

On a recent flight from Germany to China all passengers were tested prior to boarding the flight in order to confirm a negative result before boarding. A subsequent test after arrival then showed a passenger as positive, so follow up testing is important. 

 

The problem then is what do you do with the remaining passengers if one passenger shows a subsequent positive result, in the case above all passengers were subjected to a mandatory 14 day quarantine period. A killer for tourism if it happens to inbound tourists into Thailand.

 

A very difficult position to be in if Thailand wants tourism and wants to manage Covid risks efficiently.

[newnative]

3 hours ago, ezzra said:

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

   Huh?  Some European countries rely on tourism for significant revenue.  Italy is about 12% and Greece 18%, for example.  Spain 11%.  Portugal 19%.  UK 11%.  France 9%.  Same for all the Caribbean countries, Mexico, and some of the central American countries.  Indonesia.  Iceland.  And, American states like Florida and Hawaii.   So, Thailand is not 'very different'.    

[Kennycrossfit]

7 minutes ago, newnative said:

   Huh?  Some European countries rely on tourism for significant revenue.  Italy is about 12% and Greece 18%, for example.  Spain 11%.  Portugal 19%.  UK 11%.  France 9%.  Same for all the Caribbean countries, Mexico, and some of the central American countries.  Indonesia.  Iceland.  And, American states like Florida and Hawaii.   So, Thailand is not 'very different'.    

UK last year was 7.2%

[AndrewMciver]

3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

12% of Thailand GDP comes from foreign tourist arrivals Only an idiot would risk the other 88% of GDP by allowing unrestricted access to return without conditions such as quarantine

 Try 20-30%.

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

Thailand does not rely upon 10,s of Millions of Tourists every year. the Main Economy is still manufacturing, Export, and Agriculture.

However, the Secondary Economy does rely upon the cash driven Tourist Industry. This is why there is so much emphasis being placed on  it.

 

[Trillian]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Actually Thailand is very different to many countries owing to the fact that Thailand main revenues are for tourism and hospitality and their related products, unlike other countries that don't rely on 10's of million tourists a year for it's economic prosperity and continuity...

Tourism is less than 12% of GDP it is not the main source of revenue by a long way.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Trillian

[petedk]

2 hours ago, alant said:

The move away from tourism to alternative does not seem to have a plan apart from stifling tourism as you can see by the xenophobic no foreigner rules in many national tourist locations. 

 

I don't understand why they are making these rules as all foreigners here at the moment have been here since lockdown and are therefore virus free.

 

I read today about Srinakarin Dam National Park in Kanchanaburi not allowing foreigners in at the moment.

 

These sort of messages will travel around the world through social media and no doubt at all will affect some people. I know there are millions who couldn't care less, but anyway Thailand is still giving itself a bad name regarding tourism.

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, Aussieroaming said:

At this stage of the pandemic it will be very risky to bring in any tourists unless they have either PCR testing procedures in place and/or quarantine. Even PCR testing prior to leaving would require a follow up test after arrival.

 

On a recent flight from Germany to China all passengers were tested prior to boarding the flight in order to confirm a negative result before boarding. A subsequent test after arrival then showed a passenger as positive, so follow up testing is important. 

 

The problem then is what do you do with the remaining passengers if one passenger shows a subsequent positive result, in the case above all passengers were subjected to a mandatory 14 day quarantine period. A killer for tourism if it happens to inbound tourists into Thailand.

 

A very difficult position to be in if Thailand wants tourism and wants to manage Covid risks efficiently.

To put it quite simply, there will be no tourism despite all the delusion out there until the vaccine or viable treatment option is brought forth.  

People can believe me now or believe me in November when there is nobody in Thailand.  Hope Im wrong!

[quake]

2 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

time to get humble now I say.

maybe a 2 for 1 on selected beers instead of the regular rip off prices in the likes of Samui & Phuket?

if the next time I go to a bar and see a small beer priced at over 70 baht I am walking straight back out the door.

You go to bars that have doors?

that's a bit posh. 

[petedk]

7 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Tourism is less than 12% of GDP it is not the main source of revenue by a long way.

According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019.

 

Tourism in Thailand - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Tourism_in_Thailand

 

 

 

[Trillian]

3 minutes ago, petedk said:

According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019.

 

Tourism in Thailand - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Tourism_in_Thailand

 

 

 

Is the wrong answer!

 

Thai GDP was valued at USD 506 billion, 60% of that was exports, of which tourism represents 20%...ergo, tourism is 12% of GDP, NOT 20%.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports#:~:text=Exports in Thailand averaged 11021.96,Million in February of 1991.

[WineOh]

5 minutes ago, quake said:

You go to bars that have doors?

that's a bit posh. 

Yeah. 
don’t you? 
 

Or are you a season ticket holder at the creaky stool in the corner? 
 

them lady drinks start to sting a bit after a while, don’t they? ????

[newnative]

54 minutes ago, Kennycrossfit said:

UK last year was 7.2%

   I saw 10%, 11% and also your 7.2%.  Whatever, it's not an insignificant amount.

[wasabi]

Economic problems in Thailand not seem to be helping the Thai Baht go down.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, stephenterry said:

and will only cease when population immunity is raised sufficiently to burn out the virus.

 

From what I read, getting to that point would require something like 60-70% of a population to have been infected by the virus...  And that, inevitably, would mean LOTS of sick and dead people to get to that point.  Hopefully, the development of an effective vaccine will avoid the need for what you describe.

 

[petedk]

25 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Is the wrong answer!

 

Thai GDP was valued at USD 506 billion, 60% of that was exports, of which tourism represents 20%...ergo, tourism is 12% of GDP, NOT 20%.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports#:~:text=Exports in Thailand averaged 11021.96,Million in February of 1991.

I know we are going to get different figures from different sources. The Tourism Authorities always like to boast about the huge numbers.