Tourism slump to weigh down Thailand economy for years: Report

[Ventenio]

Thailand is VERY VERY different.  Number 1, billions of Chinese like to come here.  Everyone knows this, and it could change their travel plans.  Number 2, farangs have not been treated well during covid, we are dirty and it might mean less tourism or expats leaving.  Number 3, with 99.999999% of people coming for fun (yea, sure, you come for the elephants and the temples....omg....yea, you have been here 20-years and have never, never, would never, ever....ok, ok) and covid certainly can pass much easier that way.....well, there you go.  Number 4, transportation prices will go up, must wear mask, etc....that's hurting the backpackers.  and Number 5, baht is going to get much stronger.  oh, Number 6....China outbreaks are NOT done.  Now in Beijing.  

 

don't worry, spring 2022 should be ok.  

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

37 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Thai GDP was valued at USD 506 billion, 60% of that was exports, of which tourism represents 20%

  Where are you getting the notion/detail from that tourism somehow accounts for 20% of exports? I'm not sure why tourism would even count toward exports. But I don't see any mention of tourism in the exports info you linked to.

 

[Saint Nick]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The deaths of say 60 people in Thailand (or 1 day death toll on the road) destroying the entire Thai economy for two years seems a little silly to me

Yeah...as silly as again and again linking a global pandemic to car- accidents!

[Caldera]

It will be very interesting to see how the summer holidays experiment in Europe will go. For better or worse, it will lead the way as far as international travel in the not so distant future is concerned.

[spidermike007]

5 hours ago, vinny41 said:

12% of Thailand GDP comes from foreign tourist arrivals Only an idiot would risk the other 88% of GDP by allowing unrestricted access to return without conditions such as quarantine

 

Many economists say when you take into account all of the ancillary industries related to tourism, and benefiting from tourism, it is closer to 20% of the total economy, which represents well over 3 trillion baht ($110 billion) per year. That is alot of money, and perhaps as many as 6 million jobs. They will have a find a balance. Of course restrictions will have to be in place, but a covid free letter or Covid testing would be a far superior alternative to quarantine, which is punitive and would keep 99% of tourists away. Also, tourists coming from nations with low infections should be allowed in with a simple test, which Thailand needs to develop.

 

There is no doubt that the economic shutdown is going to take a long time to recover from. Nobody knows how long. But, Thailand had many tourism related problems long before Covid. Tourism was already declining, and the quality of the average tourist had declined dramatically. There are many reasons for this. A high baht, the US-China trade wars and ongoing fallout from the Phuket Boat Tragedy. Traffic safety issues, the lack of high speed transport, air quality, multiple scams, environmental degradation, and many, many others. 

 

The neighbors have been benefitting from the fact that Thailand seems to have gone out of their way to make themselves repulsive to alot of people, as a nation. Not the people. I love the people here. It is the stupendous degree of arrogance, hubris, ignorance, racism, hatred of foreigners, and the stunning lack of vision, on the part of the fabulously incompetent leaders and ministers here, and immigration policies that are dumb and dumber. It is really turning off the planet to Thailand. If they could only see how they are perceived. Such ignoramus fools. Now, after years and years of fake nationalist ranting, and insufferable arrogance, they are really starting to pay the price, and they are getting exactly what they so wholeheartedly deserve, which is to be shunned by the planet. And as I said, this was happening long before Covid came along. That is just one additional nail in the coffin of tourism. 

 

Oh well. We sow what we reap. We make the bed, and then we have to lie within it. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by spidermike007

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, AndrewMciver said:

 Try 20-30%.

Can you provide evidence please if you search  the internet the 12% of Thailand GDP comes from foreign tourist arrivals 

and 6% of GDP  comes from domestic tourism comes from the Goverment  so the total figures for tourism is 18% of GDP where does your 20%-30% figure come from

Edited June 17, 2020 by vinny41
additional info

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Tourism slump to weigh down Thailand economy for years:

Coupled to the declining economy Thailands going to have a rough ride with this government in place.

[Airalee]

38 minutes ago, petedk said:

I know we are going to get different figures from different sources. The Tourism Authorities always like to boast about the huge numbers.

 

 

It’s like the saying goes...

 

”Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”

[zeamonkey]

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

To put it quite simply, there will be no tourism despite all the delusion out there until the vaccine or viable treatment option is brought forth.  

People can believe me now or believe me in November when there is nobody in Thailand.  Hope Im wrong!

Thanks because you must be the only one that are predicting this. Just you.

[Anton9]

In Europe life is going back to normal, government realized you can't totally eradicate the virus and you' ll always have some infections along the road.

Thailand is in a very different and delicate position, they decided to not tolerate even a small numbers of new cases and that will make their journey much much more difficult.

[CGW]

4 hours ago, sweatalot said:

 ... recently I read that a majority of Thais don't want foreigners in the country

they will be happy, will they?

Did you believe what you read or did you just laugh it off as yet more poor journalism?

Or are you preferring to add to the TVF "myth" that "all Thai's hate us" ? ????

You might want to post a link to "majority of Thai's don't want foreigners etc" so you can add to the xenophobia? ???? 

[Burma Bill]

4 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

time to get humble now I say.

maybe a 2 for 1 on selected beers instead of the regular rip off prices in the likes of Samui & Phuket?

if the next time I go to a bar and see a small beer priced at over 70 baht I am walking straight back out the door.

Great pity you are not able to walk into a bar here in Siem Reap - small draught beer or canned beer (in some local Khmer bars) just 50 US cents (16 baht)!!

[billd766]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

   Huh?  Some European countries rely on tourism for significant revenue.  Italy is about 12% and Greece 18%, for example.  Spain 11%.  Portugal 19%.  UK 11%.  France 9%.  Same for all the Caribbean countries, Mexico, and some of the central American countries.  Indonesia.  Iceland.  And, American states like Florida and Hawaii.   So, Thailand is not 'very different'.    

From what I understand of your post you claim that Thailand is not very different. The western countries that you have quoted have quite a few differences compared to Thailand.

 

1   They are closer to the EU and the UK than to Thailand so airfares are cheaper.

2   They are more friendly to tourists.

3   There will little chance to arrive and spend 14 days of your holiday locked down in isolation.

4   Most holiday countries can even be reached by your own car.

4   The food and drink in those countries is of reasonable quality and if you really want Thai food you can easily find a Thai restaurant.

[Saint Nick]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

Tourism is less than 12% of GDP it is not the main source of revenue by a long way.

Maybe, if you count all things DIRECTLY related to Tourism, like hotels and guides!

But: ,amy farmers deliver their produce to hotels, laundry- companies clean hotel- laundry, car- salesmen sell vans or other vehicles to hotels and transport companies...

If you take all of that into account, 12% is ridiculesly low!

[Trillian]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

  Where are you getting the notion/detail from that tourism somehow accounts for 20% of exports? I'm not sure why tourism would even count toward exports. But I don't see any mention of tourism in the exports info you linked to.

 

Tourism is an export. If you think it isn't then try adding the 60% of GDP that is exports, and the 20% that you think is tourism and then try fitting the rest of the Thai economy into the remaining 20%, that's services, finance, agriculture etc etc etc!

[Trillian]

54 minutes ago, Saint Nick said:

Maybe, if you count all things DIRECTLY related to Tourism, like hotels and guides!

But: ,amy farmers deliver their produce to hotels, laundry- companies clean hotel- laundry, car- salesmen sell vans or other vehicles to hotels and transport companies...

If you take all of that into account, 12% is ridiculesly low!

Try these for round numbers:

 

Thailand is an export oriented economy with exports accounting for around 65 percent of the GDP.  

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

Tourism receipts as a percentage of exports - 20%

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS?locations=TH

 

Value of GDP - USD 520 bill.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

 

Value of tourism - USD 62 bill.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

 

62 Bill. as a percentage of GDP = 12%

 

[Trillian]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

  Where are you getting the notion/detail from that tourism somehow accounts for 20% of exports? I'm not sure why tourism would even count toward exports. But I don't see any mention of tourism in the exports info you linked to.

 

See post 46.

[AndrewMciver]

Thailand economy is roughly officially 22% on Tourism OFFICIALLY. But a further 10% comes from links to the tourism chain (eg those who produce materials for clothing, food, drinks, alcohol, etc), and the black market (counterfit goods, street food, ladies of the night, etc). 

 

Even if they open up to the world, i doubt they will see many tourists. At the moment it seems attractive, but as soon as they open up they will see cases (even if local countries like South Korea) and then it won't remain very attractive to many tourists. No one wants to be in Thailand and stuck with a virus, people will want to be close to home. 

 

Tourism is screwed till there is treatment or a vaccine. 

[Trillian]

Why is tourism classed as an export? The easiest and simplest explanations I could find on this include:

 

"The important thing about export is that it introduces monetary value into your economy. In other words, export is any value created internally that is sold for money that comes from outside.
If you look at it that way, it's obvious that tourism is an export. In this case, external money flies into your country in tourist's wallet, but it is technically the same as crates of your product being shipped out of the country (it's very impractical to ship out landmarks, culture, beaches and good weather in crates, so buyer comes to you instead). Value is internal, money is external".

 

and/or

 

"If you are country X, then Selling a $100 of room and meals and tours to a tourist from country Y brings in $100 of country Y's currency. Just as if you sold a piece of machinery for $100 to Country Y, shipped it and got their cash for it. Even if they pay in local currency X, they would have had to exchange Y currency for X at some point, same thing". 

 

 

 

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, AndrewMciver said:

Thailand economy is roughly officially 22% on Tourism OFFICIALLY. But a further 10% comes from links to the tourism chain (eg those who produce materials for clothing, food, drinks, alcohol, etc), and the black market (counterfit goods, street food, ladies of the night, etc). 

 

Even if they open up to the world, i doubt they will see many tourists. At the moment it seems attractive, but as soon as they open up they will see cases (even if local countries like South Korea) and then it won't remain very attractive to many tourists. No one wants to be in Thailand and stuck with a virus, people will want to be close to home. 

 

Tourism is screwed till there is treatment or a vaccine. 

Plenty of Tourism going on at the moment its called  domestic tourism

[Trillian]

1 hour ago, AndrewMciver said:

Thailand economy is roughly officially 22% on Tourism OFFICIALLY. But a further 10% comes from links to the tourism chain (eg those who produce materials for clothing, food, drinks, alcohol, etc), and the black market (counterfit goods, street food, ladies of the night, etc). 

 

No it isn't, can you provide a link to confirm?

[Anton9]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Plenty of Tourism going on at the moment its called  domestic tourism

"Plenty" it's a bit optimistic.

Maybe Cha Am,Hua Hin and Bang Sen.

Phuket,Pattaya,Chiang Mai,Samui are ghost towns

[newnative]

4 hours ago, billd766 said:

From what I understand of your post you claim that Thailand is not very different. The western countries that you have quoted have quite a few differences compared to Thailand.

 

1   They are closer to the EU and the UK than to Thailand so airfares are cheaper.

2   They are more friendly to tourists.

3   There will little chance to arrive and spend 14 days of your holiday locked down in isolation.

4   Most holiday countries can even be reached by your own car.

4   The food and drink in those countries is of reasonable quality and if you really want Thai food you can easily find a Thai restaurant.

     I was addressing the post that claimed Thailand was somehow 'different' because of its reliance on tourism for a significant part of its GDP.  I was merely pointing out that there are other countries that also rely on tourism for a big chunk of revenue, as well.   I wasn't talking about tourism demographics or which countries may have tourism advantages in recovering from the virus.  Certainly, the European countries will benefit in the short-term from easy auto travel between countries.

[NordicDemon]

8 hours ago, Trillian said:

Tourism is less than 12% of GDP it is not the main source of revenue by a long way.

In April of this year, Dhanin Chearavanont stated that 'The tourism industry is one of Thailand's main economic sectors, accounting for 16-17% of GDP.' Official government sources have frequently put forth similar statements while underlining the need for getting tourism going again for the sake of the overall Thai economy. This is because various enterprises indirectly linked to tourism suffer from a reduced customer base and low economic activity as well.

 

The Thai government and businesses hope that increased domestic tourism will manage to soften the blow from the lack of foreign tourists. I think such an increase will do that to some extent, but unfortunately for Thailand, it's likely that any positive impacts will be highly localized, and it's doubtful that an overall increase in domestic tourism will be significant enough for its industry to overcome the many challenges it faces as a whole. 

[Trillian]

31 minutes ago, NordicDemon said:

In April of this year, Dhanin Chearavanont stated that 'The tourism industry is one of Thailand's main economic sectors, accounting for 16-17% of GDP.' Official government sources have frequently put forth similar statements while underlining the need for getting tourism going again for the sake of the overall Thai economy. This is because various enterprises indirectly linked to tourism suffer from a reduced customer base and low economic activity as well.

 

The Thai government and businesses hope that increased domestic tourism will manage to soften the blow from the lack of foreign tourists. I think such an increase will do that to some extent, but unfortunately for Thailand, it's likely that any positive impacts will be highly localized, and it's doubtful that an overall increase in domestic tourism will be significant enough for its industry to overcome the many challenges it faces as a whole. 

If you look at the numbers in the links in post 46 above you'll see the official published numbers for export tourism in 2019, those are well known and have been published extensively I believe.

 

I would guess that the quote of 16/17% by a politician reflects both international and domestic tourism except domestic tourism is NOT an export. As a consequence both sets of figures may be correct, 12% for international/export tourism and 4/5% for domestic tourism. The problem comes when people confuse the two sets of figures and call the sum total an export, which it isn't. Rightly or wrongly I had presumed we were discussing international tourism as an export in Thailand and not domestic tourism also.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Trillian

[stephenterry]

9 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

From what I read, getting to that point would require something like 60-70% of a population to have been infected by the virus...  And that, inevitably, would mean LOTS of sick and dead people to get to that point.  Hopefully, the development of an effective vaccine will avoid the need for what you describe.

 

To look on the bright side, latest scientific research indicates that a second wave of infection could be a weaker strain. These Corona viruses as SARS and MERS took that route, and Covid 19 could act the same.  Flu viruses are a different and more serious matter, as are bacterial infections, which are proving resistant to all current antibiotics.

[Hanuman2547]

14 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

time to get humble now I say.

maybe a 2 for 1 on selected beers instead of the regular rip off prices in the likes of Samui & Phuket?

if the next time I go to a bar and see a small beer priced at over 70 baht I am walking straight back out the door.

You better put on a good pair of shoes!

[vinny41]

5 hours ago, Anton9 said:

"Plenty" it's a bit optimistic.

Maybe Cha Am,Hua Hin and Bang Sen.

Phuket,Pattaya,Chiang Mai,Samui are ghost towns

Maybe these ghost towns need to look and see what they are doing wrong

I can accept a small mark up for locations that are island base

but as one member mentioned 280 baht for a single beer , how much did the business owner pay for that beer

[Boomer6969]

On 6/17/2020 at 12:47 PM, billd766 said:

1   They are closer to the EU and the UK than to Thailand so airfares are cheaper.

2   They are more friendly to tourists.

3   There will little chance to arrive and spend 14 days of your holiday locked down in isolation.

4   Most holiday countries can even be reached by your own car.

4   The food and drink in those countries is of reasonable quality and if you really want Thai food you can easily find a Thai restaurant.

5   Their tourism and leisure industries rely largely on domestic demand. 

 

This will have a snowballing impact on countries like Thailand as some French, for instance, will (re)discover that a good hike in the Alps beats a happy ending in a dodgy massage parlour. And I don't even mention food, and the respective cost of the said activities.