Opening up Thailand: More than half of Thais don't want foreigners back - despite 14 day quarantine, poll

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, annabel said:

Will do as soon as I can get back in to pack up and leave.... And that doesn't seem to be possible anytime soon .... Already out for 4 months and can't wait to get back and pack up and leave ASAP...

Im pretty sure its quite frustrating to be stuck outside and your stuff in Thailand. I seen it from close up many people I know from SG are stuck there now instead of their job in Thailand. Your not alone.  Though most made the gamble knowingly. (i doubt anyone thought it last this long)

[Zikomat]

21 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Posters views on the Thai economy, those  who live amongst the upcountry rural poor, amongst people who can't even qualify for a 10,000 baht line of credit on a store card, usually tell us that everyone is starving and the economy close to collapse.

 

The views of posters living in western expat enclaves such as Pattaya will argue that the entire country is ready for economic collapse, just because the beer bars, ago go's and ladies of Beach Road are not doing business.

 

Listening to the views of middle class Thais' and others who live in Bangkok may actually be a useful measure, simply because they don't have an axe to grind!

 

It's like posters views on the strength of the Baht, those that are getting squeezed. Those on fixed income who have seen their incomes fall tell us that a strong Baht is bad for exports and the economy will be decimated unless the currency is weakened....you rarely hear that story from expats who are earning Baht or who have Baht assets.

 

Consider the source.

 

 

 

One day you have 40 mln visitors per year and then you have 0. You don’t need to consider any source to understand that this will represent a huge hit to the economy.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Zikomat

[Trillian]

7 minutes ago, Zikomat said:

One day you have 40 mln visitors per year and then you have 0. You don’t need to consider any source to understand that this will represent a huge hit to the economy.

If you think the economy is almost totally dependent on tourism then yes you do, you have to understand that part first and most people don't. You in particular may wish to read post 209 and do the math.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Trillian

[transam]

Just now, Trillian said:

If you think the economy is almost totally dependent on tourism then yes you do, you have to understand that part first and most people don't.

I don't think that the economy is dependent on tourism, but hundreds of thousands of Thai folks jobs are, and not only from tourists. There is no weekly cash hand outs for those now unemployed.

They are stuffed. If LOS did have a social security system then the powers that be would be in turmoil over paying out, but they haven't got any social back up, so folk are left to fend for themselves, some how...????

[holy cow cm]

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

i understand how you feel but this is one of the many ThiaVisa myths that keeps getting repeated.

there are only 200,000 farangs in the country. the population of Thailand is 66 million. 

 

yes we do contribute each in our own way and i am sure it is important for our friends and family but it has hardly any affect on the overall Thai economy.    

Yes a big part of it was in jest, but on a different serious side that is why I mentioned boyfriends. I have known many of gals that had seasonal visiting well planned and managed boyfriends with some gals having visiting husbands. Quite the revolving door for quite so many. So you add the actual foreigner inside of Thailand and it makes quite a lot in a lot of different modes of spending. Everything adds to the economy, especially visiting foreigners, foreign companies, Thai supported by foreigners and local spending by the foreigners. We just are not talking what the government takes in or the wealthy Thai business and factory owners. If you axe out all of the foreigners then axe out all the foreign investment in all types and ways and it becomes substantial. 

 

I bet you alone are a pillar in the Thai bar girl support world just yourself.

[hansnl]

4 hours ago, transam said:

But they need the jobs/income....

Do I smell Chinese influence?

Maybe it is time to be very careful going out, maybe it is time to invest time in checking out where to flee to.

Edited July 13, 2020 by hansnl

[Trillian]

Just now, transam said:

I don't think that the economy is dependent on tourism, but hundreds of thousands of Thai folks jobs are, and not only from tourists. There is no weekly cash hand outs for those now unemployed.

They are stuffed. If LOS did have a social security system then the powers that be would be in turmoil over paying out, but they haven't got any social back up, so folk are left to fend for themselves, some how...????

There are cash handouts for those that are unemployed unless they are offered a job and they don't refuse it.

 

But to qualify for participation in that system a person must be part of the formal employment sector, i.e. they are paying social security or their employer is/was. The problem is that as much as 50% of the workforce participates in the informal sector which means they don't pay social security and they never pay tax. A worker can't expect benefits in the bad times when they don't pay into the system in the good times.

 

Here's two reports that discuss the distribution of labour in Thailand, one is ten years old but the picture it provides is still applicable today. The BOT report is more current:

 

https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/documents/publication/wcms_205099.pdf (see 6.7 for discussion on the above)

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=638&language=eng (note the up to date numbers of employed people per sector)

 

 

 

 

[holy cow cm]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

Looks like you only know hookers if you think they are representing more than half of the country.

Frits, it was a loose joke. But if you want to really know, I know every walk of life in Thailand be it from factory owners to the hooker bar girl as you put it to the in-between middle class Thai and then some. Not sure who you hang around.

[mike787]

Thais don't like farang.

Edited July 13, 2020 by mike787

[mommysboy]

If a strategy of eradication is pursued then logically inward travel is simply not possible; there isn't any other alternative!   The Government has made its choice and broadly speaking most Thais agree.  Even if the sector reopened it's doubtful it would recover to even 20% (I guess) of its original size, however, covid19 would surge.  

 

Even if international tourism accounts for just 11% of Thai GDP, it's just not possible for the overall economy not to be severely effected.  Tourism, moreover employed upwards of 5 million people.  There is also the multiplier effect to be considered.  Supposing tourism is discounted, the rest of the economy still has severe economic challenges as with most other countries.  The ramifications both in terms of economics and human mortality can not be under estimated.  Nobody knows just how bad things will get, so it's pointless making biblical size predictions, but it would also be an error to dismiss the looming economic crisis as either manageable or benign relative even to covid19 deaths imo.  

 

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by mommysboy

[brucegoniners]

This foreigner doesn’t want foreigners back either.

[mommysboy]

31 minutes ago, Zikomat said:

One day you have 40 mln visitors per year and then you have 0. You don’t need to consider any source to understand that this will represent a huge hit to the economy.

That's absolutely right- some might even call it a catastrophic effect.  People forget this is very much still a looming crisis- yes an event has happened, but the shockwave hasn't really hit home yet, as those effected- many millions in fact- have been able to draw on savings, or use the extended family as a social welfare system.

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

If a strategy of eradication is pursued then logically inward travel is simply not possible; there isn't any other alternative!   The Government has made its choice and broadly speaking most Thais agree.

 

Even if international tourism accounts for just 11% of Thai GDP, it's just not possible for the overall economy not to be severely effected.  Tourism, moreover employed upwards of 5 million people.  There is also the multiplier effect to be considered.  Supposing tourism is discounted, the rest of the economy still has severe economic challenges as with most other countries.  The ramifications both in terms of economics and human mortality can not be under estimated.  Nobody knows just how bad things will get, so it's pointless making biblical size predictions, but it would also be an error to dismiss the looming economic crisis as either manageable or benign relative to covid19 deaths imo.  

 

 

A good and fair assessment that I agree with. But if international tourism is 11.5% of GDP and GDP is slated to fall by up to 10% this year (currently estimated at 8.5%) that fall includes losses in all sectors of the economy, not just in tourism, that means tourism is still producing some revenue and must by definition continue to do so.

[herfiehandbag]

As ever with such polls/surveys, it hinges on who, and where, you ask the questions.

 

If you were to ask predominantly middle class Thais, in Bangkok, (probably those who were asked) then tourism for many is not part of their lives, and therefore the.y have little or no interest in tourism resuming. Because of the particularly (peculiarly) stratified and insular Thai social (class)  system they probably have less contact and interaction with those Thais who do work in tourism than they do with foreigners, and so don't understand (or care about) the problems which the sudden collapse of tourism has brought.

 

If you were to ask/survey those who do work in or around tourism ( and while it may account for 15% of the economy I suspect that it employs a disproportionately higher number of often lower paid workers) then the answer would be very different.

 

Whilst this government doesn't really answer to either group/class it probably feels that it is to it's advantage to be seen to be paying attention to the middle classes.

Edited July 13, 2020 by herfiehandbag

[Berti]

38 minutes ago, robblok said:

Im pretty sure its quite frustrating to be stuck outside and your stuff in Thailand. I seen it from close up many people I know from SG are stuck there now instead of their job in Thailand. Your not alone.  Though most made the gamble knowingly. (i doubt anyone thought it last this long)

There are also people who had to work outside Thailand. Not a gamble, just the need to earn money.

[robblok]

Just now, Berti said:

There are also people who had to work outside Thailand. Not a gamble, just the need to earn money.

Then too bad for those people, you can please everyone. If they are married they can still come back. But they have to go through quarantine and that is for many too hard to do. So yea tough luck but I don't see how else it can be done. If they require Thais to quarantine then its normal to do the same for foreigners.

 

Maybe those who had to work could work longer and then take a longer holiday (to see their family) in Thailand. That is if work permits it. 

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Unlike many other countries around the world who were infected with the pandemic and their economy is about to implode on itself and ruien 100' of millions of lives, Thai people, who has deep seated dislike and disdain towards all foreigners anyway, can survive on a very little money and are happy to eat rice and som tam and sleep on the floor and consume very little in a way of necessities and comfort, so no new news there... 

Sorry, but I consider that to be a rather ridiculous and borderline racist generalization.

 

First of all, it is only a relatively small percentage of rural folks who sleep on the floor these days. I have been to many farms in the provinces and they nearly all have mattresses or beds. 

 

Second, alot of Thai people are not nearly as hateful and ignorant as you claim. 

 

Lastly, once you experience comfort and decent income it is hard to give it up. I agree that many Thais are capable of living on little income. However, that does not mean they prefer that. 

 

Foreign tourists and many of us ex-pats bring alot of cash to the table, and contribute in countless ways. Most of us are honorable and respectful of the locals. And most Thais treat me with either indifference or warmth. Certainly not the racist disdain you refer to. A rather myopic and sad perspective on this lovely nation and it's wonderful people. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by spidermike007

[AhFarangJa]

What about all those sick buffalo in Isaan, they will have to be put down........

[Berti]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

Then too bad for those people, you can please everyone. If they are married they can still come back.

And if not? Is online marriage allowed in Thailand? (sarcasm).

 

Of course many countries are very restrictive and at the same time managing this whole quarantine thing very bad and slowly.

Thailand is making progress here and I hope it will be easier in 1-2 months to get in WITH quarantine.

[thaisabai]

4 hours ago, redwood1 said:

I bet some Thais think

Why not just train the farang to climb the trees and pick coconuts......No more monkey cruelty and the farang can finally be useful...

a good one !!! love it !!!

????????????????????

 

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, Trillian said:

A good and fair assessment that I agree with. But if international tourism is 11.5% of GDP and GDP is slated to fall by up to 10% this year (currently estimated at 8.5%) that fall includes losses in all sectors of the economy, not just in tourism, that means tourism is still producing some revenue and must by definition continue to do so.

Remember that it was more or less business as usual in the first quarter of this year.  Since then I believe international tourism has gone over the cliff.  Government stimulus measures are likely to cushion the Thai economy against what would be a fall much in excess of 8.5% GDP.  Forecasts are also subject to downward revision.  Personally, what's happened already is a lethal dose to any economy.  It's difficult not to foresee anything but the most severe of recessions.

 

Furthermore any bounce-back is likely to be rather flattened by the failure of tourism.  We really are in unprecedented times for Thailand.

[SuwadeeS]

Just shows the real face.

 

Thais are very rassism.

[conimex]

5 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

Another poll inciting xenophobia !

Nothing to do with that, if I would have stayed in Thailand, I would have said the same, If there would be another outbreak, Thailand would risk more problems, not enough medical personnel and perhaps another economic crisis.

[robblok]

9 minutes ago, Berti said:

And if not? Is online marriage allowed in Thailand? (sarcasm).

 

Of course many countries are very restrictive and at the same time managing this whole quarantine thing very bad and slowly.

Thailand is making progress here and I hope it will be easier in 1-2 months to get in WITH quarantine.

Your not the only one might not see my parents this year because of this. But I dont think that Thailand should open up the borders without quarantine currently. 

[spidermike007]

Many reliable sources state tourism is closer to 20% of GDP, if you take into account all of the related industries. Those are the very industries getting decimated right now. Just got back from a trip to Bangkok. It is shocking how many businesses have either closed, or are barely clinging on, on life support. 

[BestB]

Thing with this polls is you can get any majority you want , all depends on demographic you ask.

 

Try asking 2 million who lost their jobs and work in tourism related industry and see what results you will get.

 

asking 1000 people who do not rely on tourism income does not result in majority do not want foreigners 

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Many reliable sources state tourism is closer to 20% of GDP, if you take into account all of the related industries. Those are the very industries getting decimated right now. Just got back from a trip to Bangkok. It is shocking how many businesses have either closed, or are barely clinging on, on life support. 

It is closer to 20%, the combination of international tourism at 11.5% and domestic tourism at 7.5% makes 19%. And when the USD/THB is above 32 it is 20%.

[wensiensheng]

5 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Now this is what it is really saying. Have a competent real elected government and then maybe.

Like they have in USA and UK?

 

 

[DrTuner]

Let's wait six more months when the economy is down by 1/5th. I'll be expecting a pretty please with a cherry on the top. 

[mommysboy]

14 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Many reliable sources state tourism is closer to 20% of GDP, if you take into account all of the related industries. Those are the very industries getting decimated right now. Just got back from a trip to Bangkok. It is shocking how many businesses have either closed, or are barely clinging on, on life support. 

Yes the oft quoted figure of 11% refers to international tourism and is in any case widely regarded as an underestimate.  And yes, the loss of tourism which is huge, may have a crippling effect on other sectors too.