Evidence now suggests herd immunity likely impossible without a vaccine

[Kinnock]

12 minutes ago, J Town said:

Not fake news. There was a ban, and there still is on some folks wanting to join.

 

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/21/the-ban-on-covid-19-survivors-joining-up-has-lifted-but-some-cases-could-still-be-denied/

That's just an attempt to avoid the embarrassment of a total 180 turn.  They did a swift 179.5 degree turn.

 

If flu was being studied and reported in the same detail as COVID, there would be similar unusual cases.  COVID Panic is the real pandemic.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Kinnock

[J Town]

3 minutes ago, rumak said:

From today's Yahoo news.   A photo of  "the herd"  

A quote from Pearl S Buck's "The Good Earth"

When the rich are too rich there are ways, and when the poor are too poor there are ways . . . When the rich are too rich there is a way, and if I am not mistaken, that way will come soon.

[AKJeff]

2 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

 

 

 

"In vaccine development, "one of the things that you hope for is that your vaccine induces a response that's comparable to a natural infection, because theoretically, the best vaccine you could possibly ever get is a natural infection".

 

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/anthony-fauci-bullish-on-prospects-for-us-vaccine-this-year-20200716-p55ch6

 

Before all this covid started herd immunity used to mean immunity gained from either natural infections or vaccines.   I truly hope and want an effective vaccine.   But it is likely that if antibodies from natural immunity go away after a short time then the vaccine will have a similar effect.

Edited July 16, 2020 by AKJeff
Didn't want the argument

[4MyEgo]

11 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Meanwhile, what are the scare and fear mongers doing to give themselves the best possible defense against the virus?  Are they all changing their diets and cutting out the sugars and processed carbs that cause metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance?  Are they getting more exercise in and ensuring enough vitamin D?  Are they taking zinc?   If not, I would highly suggest they look in the mirror before trying to spread fear.

 

 

Lets not forget vitamin A, all those greens that make a barrier around the cell to stop Covid-19 getting in.

[rumak]

Just now, 4MyEgo said:

Lets not forget vitamin A, all those greens that make a barrier around the cell to stop Covid-19 getting in.

and Johnny Walker !    

[4MyEgo]

4 minutes ago, rumak said:

and Johnny Walker !    

I prefer Smirnoff ????

[sungod]

11 hours ago, J Town said:

Sure, just like HIV. No one knows the long term damage done yet by Covid. The US military now has a lifetime ban on anyone joining if they contracted Covid due to all the collateral damage done to the body.

The US Military have an interim ban until more is known for those who have been hospitalized die to COVID-19, a slight difference ????

[Patjqm]

14 hours ago, ezzra said:

I think Sweden took the punt on herd immunity and lost big time with 76,500 infected and 5,572 dead for a nation of 10 millions... anyone else want to try?...

In Belgium,lock down , 10k deads on 10 mio and economy down...

[DavisH]

16 hours ago, torturedsole said:

Already contracted C19 in February of this year.  No problem for relatively healthy guy and the common cold regularly provides worse symptoms than C19.  

 

Easier to quarantine those most at risk rather than the entire global population.  

 

Give it two or three years and C19 will be well and truly forgotten about.  

 

 

I assume you had a covid test to confirm that?

[charliebadenhop]

This is an excellent article. Please have a read.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

[Mayhem11]

I agree with Simple1. The flu vaccine is not a panacea, sine the 2019 version is useless against the 2020 version of the flu. The flu vaccine is developed from the 2018 version for 2019. This seems to be an exercise in futility and Big Pharma chicanery. The Covid 19 vaccine will be another money spinner for Big Pharma. As for herd immunity that is just a buzz word for pro-vaxxers. You eliminate diseases caused by pathogens and viruses by eliminating the reservoirs where it thrives. Even that isn’t necessarily effective with polio on the rise in Eastern Europe and TB cases still being detected. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Mayhem11

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

13 hours ago, innosiem said:

99% of cases are mild (like the flu) according to worldometer
"antibody tests" are showing people have been asymptomatic and not even noticed it

 

So that must be why the hospitals in heavy infections areas of the U.S. are filling up and ICU units are hitting capacity, because everyone who gets the virus is just fine.... Not to mention a U.S. death toll that's now projected to hit 224,000 by Nov. 1.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

9 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Much more infectious possible 10x as much but no change in lethality either way. 

 

From what I've read on that point, the scientists seem to be saying they don't believe the one strain vs the other strain are any more lethal than the other.

 

However, if one strain is much more infectious/contagious, as appears to be the case, that's going to mean more people at large will become infected. And that alone will tend to increase the volume of deaths, even if not the death rate (%) among those infected.

 

[Sambotte]

4 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

All the major vaccine development groups have committed to making any eventual vaccine that they might come up with, available on a non-profit basis. This is also a pre-requisite for any vaccine development effort receiving funding from either the Gates Foundation or the Global Vaccine Alliance - and a large proportion of the vaccine groups have accepted funding from these two organisations.

You really are a believer ????

How explain then Companies working on a vaccine going UP at any annoucement in Wall Street.

I guess the guys did not get your info ????

[yuyiinthesky]

15 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Community Immunity (aka herd immunity) is a numbers game. predictions are reliable when the disease is  understood and we are only a short time into this  infection,

 

The issue has become politicized, so what better way to address some of the bias by  seeing what a conservative republican Governor of the US State of Mississippi has to say.

I disagree, better not to look at the bickering in election year USA, especially now with all the cancel culture and censorship going on there. There are lots of universities and experienced professors in the old world, and I haven’t found a single one of them yet who is a herd immunity denier. 

[yuyiinthesky]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

However, if one strain is much more infectious/contagious, as appears to be the case

This is pure speculation. What we see is more probably simply a ‘first come, first served’ effect.

[yuyiinthesky]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

So that must be why the hospitals in heavy infections areas of the U.S. are filling up and ICU units are hitting capacity, because everyone who gets the virus is just fine.... Not to mention a U.S. death toll that's now projected to hit 224,000 by Nov. 1.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

And that while in Europe and in Asia the numbers are already back to almost zero or zero, for weeks and months.

If these speculative numbers materialize, then it is not the fault of SARS-CoV-2, but something is going very wrong in the US. Hint: It might have to to with the preference for junk food and the obesity. Fat people seem to be more delicious for this pesky virus.

 

[cmarshall]

8 hours ago, charliebadenhop said:

This is an excellent article. Please have a read.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

The Atlantic article is not relevant to this discussion since it accepts as a given, without providing supporting evidence, that infection by Covid-19 produces a lasting immunity so that herd immunity is possible.  But that assumption is what is being questioned by the OP.  The opinion cited against the assumption is from Dr. William Haseltine, mentioned several times above.  Other experts may disagree, but Haseltine does cite a body of research to support his conclusion.

 

Here is another except from his blog post:

 

Earlier studies showed that the very same strain of a coronavirus that causes a cold one year can do so again the following year. Unlike with flu viruses, which mutate frequently and often infect us with new strains each year, the coronavirus need not change to reinfect. Recent data suggests that SARS-CoV-2 follows the same pattern. Following infection and recovery, all antibodies to the virus begin to fade quickly, including those which may be protective.

Over the past weekend, researchers from the United Kingdom published new research which suggests that SARS-CoV-2 does indeed act like its more common cousins. They studied the presence of neutralizing antibodies — the specific antibodies needed to fight off reinfection — and found that a transient neutralizing antibody response was “a feature shared by both a SARS-CoV-2 infection that causes low disease severity and the circulating seasonal coronaviruses that are associated with common colds.”

 

Essentially, the amount of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the body varies based on the severity of the infection and the time from infection — and the more time that passes, the fewer antibodies a person retains.

 

This actually mirrors the results of the Spanish study published in the Lancet on July 6 and provides even more evidence to support the argument. The study included more than 61,000 people who were given two different types of antibody tests in three separate waves from April to June.

 

While the study itself only focused on results from the first wave of testing, critical findings from the second and third waves were revealed in a public announcement on the same day.

 

Those findings show that 7% of participants who tested positive for antibodies in the first phase of testing, undertaken between April 27 and May 11, no longer had those antibodies by the second phase, which started just one week later on May 18 and lasted two weeks.

 

By the third wave of testing, which started three weeks after the start of the second wave, 14% of those who tested positive for antibodies originally, tested negative.

 

The findings support earlier findings from two smaller studies out of China, which showed that the antibodies of those infected decline rapidly. In one of these studies, neutralizing antibodies decreased significantly within just two months.

 

https://www.williamhaseltine.com/were-wasting-time-talking-about-herd-immunity/

Edited July 16, 2020 by cmarshall

[cmarshall]

And, having been persuaded against the likelihood of herd immunity against Covid-19, perhaps you have hope for the cavalry arriving in the form of an effective vaccine?  Dr. Haseltine is not encouraging on this point either.

 

Of the more than 100 vaccines currently in development, the ones tested on primates have not prevented nasal infections, though in one case the vaccine prevented the disease from spreading to the lungs where it is known to cause severe damage. However, since Covid-19 progresses somewhat differently in monkeys than in humans, it’s hard to know how effective these vaccines will be in human trials.

 

One thing we do know is that some of the vaccines currently being tested in humans are already causing serious side effects. The side effects are likely a result of the powerful ingredients added to the vaccine to help inflame the body’s immune system. These ingredients — called adjuvants — help vaccines work better, but if they can land the young and healthy patients in the clinical trial in the hospital because of high fevers and fainting, imagine what they might do to those already ill with secondary conditions or to those who are older. Indeed, the elderly may need repeated doses of the vaccine, given how resistance to some vaccinations becomes progressively more profound with time.

 

If you have ever followed the development of new drugs, from the perspective of an investor for example, you will know that all drug companies are highly enthusiastic about their drugs currently undergoing trials.  What's more, many drugs show promise of effectiveness in the early, small-scale tests, mostly because the number of participants is too small to be statistically significant.  And then most of those drugs washout when it gets to expensive large-scale Phase 3 testing.

 

So I'll stick with my original assumptions: no herd immunity, no vaccine, and two million dead in the US, because of the Three Stooges-level response of the Trump administration.

[steelepulse]

>>>two million dead in the US, because of the Three Stooges-level response of the Trump administration.

 

Really?  Two million dead and it's due to the response?  Sure about two million? 

 

Are you sure all the deaths aren't due to Cuomo sending in sick elderly people to nursing homes as part of the numbers.? As for the rest of the 140K, dare we say it is the diet, diabetes, sugar intake, processed carb intake and overall lack of health on 99.999 % of casulaties?

[impulse]

8 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

So that must be why the hospitals in heavy infections areas of the U.S. are filling up and ICU units are hitting capacity, because everyone who gets the virus is just fine.... Not to mention a U.S. death toll that's now projected to hit 224,000 by Nov. 1.

 

You mean the hospitals are filling up just like the last bad flu season in 2018, when we shut down pretty much nothing and nobody bothered with masks and the world kept spinning?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/15/flu-hospital-pandemics/

 

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/02/coronavirus-fact-check-1-flu-doesnt-overwhelm-our-hospitals/

 

224K deaths by November?  They better hurry up then...

 

Source:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm  I figure the CDC is a good place to get info...

 

And a lot of the reported "Covid related deaths" are people who died of other causes who happened to have positive Covid tests or just Covid indications, which (not so coincidentally) gave the hospital a nice bonus for treating them.

 

The huge increase in new cases is mostly due to the huge increase in the number of people being tested.  Not to mention, 300 test facilities in Florida had a 100% positive result.   What do ya figure that's all about? 

 

Maybe it's just typical election year opportunism?  I'm betting things will calm down a lot after election day.

 

[cmarshall]

31 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

>>>two million dead in the US, because of the Three Stooges-level response of the Trump administration.

 

Really?  Two million dead and it's due to the response?  Sure about two million? 

 

Are you sure all the deaths aren't due to Cuomo sending in sick elderly people to nursing homes as part of the numbers.? As for the rest of the 140K, dare we say it is the diet, diabetes, sugar intake, processed carb intake and overall lack of health on 99.999 % of casulaties?

Complete. Utter. Nonsense.

[checkered flag]

12 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Fake news.  That ban was rescinded within days.  A panic response not based on science. 

 

Influenza can also have wider effects on the body in a tiny number of people, just like COVID, if they are going to ban entry to the armed forces for everyone who's had COVID and flu, they will have a very small army. 

Having a chocolate  chip cookie might kill some but enjoyed by many. Everything has risks including being locked up and afraid to live.

My view is to get on with life, enjoy every day and take things as they come. Simple precautions are good but don't impede my freedom. The actual risks are very low to all those under 70. 

Mass shutdown IMO were meant to shut down a robust economy ahead of an election. They hurt everyone but those making the decisions at local level, don't care.

[checkered flag]

12 hours ago, rumak said:

and Johnny Walker !    

Plus a reefer, so you don't know or care if you get it. "Don't worry be happy"

[J Town]

3 minutes ago, checkered flag said:

Mass shutdown IMO were meant to shut down a robust economy ahead of an election. They hurt everyone but those making the decisions at local level, don't care.

You really think the world collaborated to shut down the US economy to hurt 45? Most nations that shut down have the virus under control. Those that didn't shut down are suffering. These are facts.

[checkered flag]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

And, having been persuaded against the likelihood of herd immunity against Covid-19, perhaps you have hope for the cavalry arriving in the form of an effective vaccine?  Dr. Haseltine is not encouraging on this point either.

 

Of the more than 100 vaccines currently in development, the ones tested on primates have not prevented nasal infections, though in one case the vaccine prevented the disease from spreading to the lungs where it is known to cause severe damage. However, since Covid-19 progresses somewhat differently in monkeys than in humans, it’s hard to know how effective these vaccines will be in human trials.

 

One thing we do know is that some of the vaccines currently being tested in humans are already causing serious side effects. The side effects are likely a result of the powerful ingredients added to the vaccine to help inflame the body’s immune system. These ingredients — called adjuvants — help vaccines work better, but if they can land the young and healthy patients in the clinical trial in the hospital because of high fevers and fainting, imagine what they might do to those already ill with secondary conditions or to those who are older. Indeed, the elderly may need repeated doses of the vaccine, given how resistance to some vaccinations becomes progressively more profound with time.

 

If you have ever followed the development of new drugs, from the perspective of an investor for example, you will know that all drug companies are highly enthusiastic about their drugs currently undergoing trials.  What's more, many drugs show promise of effectiveness in the early, small-scale tests, mostly because the number of participants is too small to be statistically significant.  And then most of those drugs washout when it gets to expensive large-scale Phase 3 testing.

 

So I'll stick with my original assumptions: no herd immunity, no vaccine, and t.wo million dead in the US, because of the Three Stooges-level response of the Trump administration.

The renown virologist and epidemiologist CMarshall, has just spoken to us. We should all believe it now. Its full or hope and optimism. Which of the three stooges is he?

The cancel culture really want to remove optimism and hope that's promoted by POTUS.

[xylophone]

1 hour ago, checkered flag said:

The cancel culture really want to remove optimism and hope that's promoted by POTUS.

The only things that trump promotes are, himself, a multitude of lies.........oh, and beans!

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, cmarshall said:

The Atlantic article is not relevant to this discussion since it accepts as a given, without providing supporting evidence, that infection by Covid-19 produces a lasting immunity so that herd immunity is possible.  But that assumption is what is being questioned by the OP.  The opinion cited against the assumption is from Dr. William Haseltine, mentioned several times above.  Other experts may disagree, but Haseltine does cite a body of research to support his conclusion.

 

 

The CNN article by Haseltine is a load of rubbish. It assumes that herd immunity requires 60% for a start, a figure that has now been invalidated by researchers, a lower figure would suffice.

 

Moreover someone who talks about wearing masks when transmission rates of asymptomatics is 0 to 2.3% clearly shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

The Atlantic article is much better.

 

Haseltine is more of a businessman than a doctor. Even when he was still active as a doctor, a long time ago, he concentrated on cancer and HIV. He's no epidemiologist.

 

Haseltine is exceptionally poorly equipped to interpret the latest research on SARS Cov2, and he proves it in the CNN article.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The CNN article by Haseltine is a load of rubbish. It assumes that herd immunity requires 60% for a start, a figure that has now been invalidated by researchers, a lower figure would suffice.

 

Moreover someone who talks about wearing masks when transmission rates of asymptomatics is 0 to 2.3% clearly shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

The Atlantic article is much better.

 

Haseltine is more of a businessman than a doctor. Even when he was still active as a doctor, a long time ago, he concentrated on cancer and HIV. He's no epidemiologist.

 

Haseltine is exceptionally poorly equipped to interpret the latest research on SARS Cov2, and he proves it in the CNN article.

Cheap ad hominem attack. Don't attack the ideas. That's too hard. 

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

And, having been persuaded against the likelihood of herd immunity against Covid-19, perhaps you have hope for the cavalry arriving in the form of an effective vaccine?  Dr. Haseltine is not encouraging on this point either.

 

Of the more than 100 vaccines currently in development, the ones tested on primates have not prevented nasal infections, though in one case the vaccine prevented the disease from spreading to the lungs where it is known to cause severe damage. However, since Covid-19 progresses somewhat differently in monkeys than in humans, it’s hard to know how effective these vaccines will be in human trials.

 

One thing we do know is that some of the vaccines currently being tested in humans are already causing serious side effects. The side effects are likely a result of the powerful ingredients added to the vaccine to help inflame the body’s immune system. These ingredients — called adjuvants — help vaccines work better, but if they can land the young and healthy patients in the clinical trial in the hospital because of high fevers and fainting, imagine what they might do to those already ill with secondary conditions or to those who are older. Indeed, the elderly may need repeated doses of the vaccine, given how resistance to some vaccinations becomes progressively more profound with time.

 

If you have ever followed the development of new drugs, from the perspective of an investor for example, you will know that all drug companies are highly enthusiastic about their drugs currently undergoing trials.  What's more, many drugs show promise of effectiveness in the early, small-scale tests, mostly because the number of participants is too small to be statistically significant.  And then most of those drugs washout when it gets to expensive large-scale Phase 3 testing.

 

So I'll stick with my original assumptions: no herd immunity, no vaccine, and two million dead in the US, because of the Three Stooges-level response of the Trump administration.

Yes I remain optimistic about vaccines. Has anyone ever seen such a massive international effort indeed completion on vaccines? Not so optimistic about the timing and also the capability for global delivery.