will the baht strengthen ,or not?

[bert bloggs]

so what do you think ,the baht has weakened a bit ,and the economic outlook is not good in the least ,so up or down ,especially against the pound?

[toofarnorth]

Today 41 - quid , highest this year , pension tomorrow , drinks on me but you have to be 30k north of C/Rai to apply.

[SteveK]

I've seen several international news articles in the last few days talking about how bad the Thai economy is so would expect the baht to weaken. However the Baht is remarkably resilient so wouldn't want to bet on it. 

[stouricks]

33 minutes ago, toofarnorth said:

Today 41 - quid , highest this year , pension tomorrow , drinks on me but you have to be 30k north of C/Rai to apply.

So why do you not open a Transferwise account, exchange your GBP into THB, but not send it here yet until you need it. That way you can exchange when the GBP is good.

[bert bloggs]

31 minutes ago, stouricks said:

So why do you not open a Transferwise account, exchange your GBP into THB, but not send it here yet until you need it. That way you can exchange when the GBP is good.

I have one????

[Delight]

  This is not a strong Pound story-more a weak dollar story.Investors are selling Dollars and buying gold.

 

End of the year should give  approx.42 Baht to Pound  (interbank).

 

The relationship Dollar/Baht seems not to be affected

 

[stouricks]

4 minutes ago, Delight said:

  This is not a strong Pound story-more a weak dollar story.Investors are selling Dollars and buying gold.

 

End of the year should give  approx.42 Baht to Pound  (interbank).

 

The relationship Dollar/Baht seems not to be affected

 

And the next Euromillion numbers please!    LOL

 

[bert bloggs]

41.31 to the pound at the moment

[pineapple01]

Amazes me the Bhts worth anything. What can it sell.?. Chinese Pox has shot the easy Tourist money , Cars are not exporting well, same with White Goods. Only Jolly Old Nop with his Rice Fields left to brings in any money.

[Peter Denis]

 21 July     > 1 Euro = 36,1214

 19 August > 1 Euro = 37,2369

 

[sscc]

USD was very strong against all in the first 4 months of 2020.

 

For the past 9-12 weeks  ( May/June to now Aug 19, 2020 )  there had been two groups in the trend. 

Weak currency group include  USD,  YEN,  THB,   RMB.  ---    USD had been the weakest. 

Strong currency group include  Euro, Pound,  AUS,  CAD. --- Euro had been the leader in the uptrend. 

 

Also noticed that THB have had a significant dip for the past 48 hours or so,  since the Thai economy data came out on Monday this week. 

 

 

Personally I believe the prediction came out in May 2020 that USD is on the way down significantly in the rest of 2020 and 2021. 

[notrub]

Has the government given any indication that they will or will not do something to return exchange rates to a strong Thai baht again?  On a different subject, mr pinapple, I thought they only had chinese box in the usa.  In washington town in a big white house.

[crazykopite]

It will soon be 50 to the £ and will weaken even further the baht has been very strong for over a year but with the economy about to fall off the cliff and mass unemployment by the millions it can only be a downward spiral and it doesn’t matter what they  say about tourism no sane person is going to visit with 14 days quarantine in a fleapit hotel which only allows you 1.5 hours exercise per day as well as all the other unnecessary restrictions .

 

 

[JerseytoBKK]

2 hours ago, sscc said:

USD was very strong against all in the first 4 months of 2020.

 

For the past 9-12 weeks  ( May/June to now Aug 19, 2020 )  there had been two groups in the trend. 

Weak currency group include  USD,  YEN,  THB,   RMB.  ---    USD had been the weakest. 

Strong currency group include  Euro, Pound,  AUS,  CAD. --- Euro had been the leader in the uptrend. 

 

Also noticed that THB have had a significant dip for the past 48 hours or so,  since the Thai economy data came out on Monday this week. 

 

 

Personally I believe the prediction came out in May 2020 that USD is on the way down significantly in the rest of 2020 and 2021. 

With the massive money printing, I expect the USD to weaken dramatically, even against the baht. UNLESS, there is a serious trade war between the US and China. Which I believe will occur if Trump is re-elected. (Cue the TDS crowd with their emphatic assertions that no way is the orange evil man getting re-elected).

[onebir]

19 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

It will soon be 50 to the £ and will weaken even further the baht has been very strong for over a year but with the economy about to fall off the cliff and mass unemployment by the millions it can only be a downward spiral and it doesn’t matter what they  say about tourism ...

 

 

Longer term I think that's a reasonable outlook (& I think the baht's been strong for at least several years), but:

- are the prospects for sterling or USD much better?

- does the BoT have reasons (& reserves) to prevent the baht weakening too fast? (Maybe USD denominated corporate debt, like in the asian crisis... idk?)

- as the gold price hits new (baht) highs &/ Thai people have to tap savings held in gold, 'gold exports' will probably support the baht

[allanos]

Essentially, the world's currencies are a function of US Dollar movements.  A look at the Dollar Index tells us that the dollar has been weakening against a basket of other currencies over the recent past.  Predicting currency movements, especially during these extraordinary times, is really a mug's game.  Unless you are a huge player, it makes no sense to try to time such movements.  If you get it right you are a star.  If you get it wrong, a dope.  Either way, the outcome was ruled by chance, not by your own analytical efforts, however much you may think they are.

 

Trillions of dollars are traded each day, around the world.  The THB is an extremely small fish in a very large sea.  It will be moved around by the ocean currents, nothing more, nothing less. Just be accepting of that fact.

[how241]

Someone/anyone  can only give you his 'best guess'.  The Thai baht is usually strong as it seems to be the Asian reserve currency.  I don't know why .

[earlinclaifornia]

Come early November with trump losing the Baht will weaken.

[bert bloggs]

1 minute ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Come early November with trump losing the Baht will weaken.

its weakened against the dollar today i am not American and think Trump is a bit odd ,but i reckon he will get in ,because the others seem worse.

Edited August 19, 2020 by bert bloggs

[earlinclaifornia]

4 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

its weakened against the dollar today i am not American and think Trump is a bit odd ,but i reckon he will get in ,because the others seem worse.

I sense your judgment has no real election outcome, thankfully. Can I get an avatar bet on the outcome? trump loses I get to choose a new one, ok?

Edited August 19, 2020 by earlinclaifornia

[Bangkok Barry]

2 hours ago, crazykopite said:

the economy about to fall off the cliff and mass unemployment by the millions

Applies to many, many countries affected by the virus. With that in mind, the Baht could even rise against worse affected countries. I'm not holding my breath for any big improvement.

[JusticeGB]

Until BREXIT is sorted out the pound will just float around. The US$ is weak at the moment and the baht is having problems with lack of tourists. The only thing holding up exports is the export of gold. All other exports particularly cars and rice are down substantially since last year. I don't think tourists will come back until late 2021. The baht is due a fall sometime soon.

Edited August 19, 2020 by JusticeGB
Added the word late

[keithkarmann]

3 hours ago, crazykopite said:

It will soon be 50 to the £ and will weaken even further the baht has been very strong for over a year but with the economy about to fall off the cliff and mass unemployment by the millions it can only be a downward spiral and it doesn’t matter what they  say about tourism no sane person is going to visit with 14 days quarantine in a fleapit hotel which only allows you 1.5 hours exercise per day as well as all the other unnecessary restrictions .

 

 

Wow 50 will do for me.

[ThailandRyan]

On April 3rd the USD was at 33.01 to 1 baht, when I transferred my quarterly amount in, On July 3rd it was 31.10 per 1 baht, and today it is at 31.24.  I would say the USD is lucky to be where it is and not back down at the 29 per 1 baht it was back in April of 2012, looking back at my transfer records. 

[Peterphuket]

4 hours ago, crazykopite said:

It will soon be 50 to the £ and will weaken even further the baht has been very strong for over a year but with the economy about to fall off the cliff and mass unemployment by the millions it can only be a downward spiral and it doesn’t matter what they  say about tourism no sane person is going to visit with 14 days quarantine in a fleapit hotel which only allows you 1.5 hours exercise per day as well as all the other unnecessary restrictions .

 

 

And then you woke up.

But, to be honest, I hope you're right.

[sammieuk1]

There looks like a general's nightmare with the baht losing a bit but fear not uncle P Boris will soon open his gob as an approaching jolly Frenchman poaches our cod and the wheels majestically fall off the pound bus once again ???? 

[rumak]

8 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

There looks like a general's nightmare with the baht losing a bit but fear not uncle P Boris will soon open his gob as an approaching jolly Frenchman poaches our cod and the wheels majestically fall off the pound bus once again ???? 

is that a nursery rhyme ?     catchy.............

[Stevemercer]

Every country is in a similar position to Thailand with negative growth and high debt. I think it all depends on whether Trump is re-elected or not. Nothing much will change between now and then, although the Baht will continue to drift down along with the US dollar.

 

If Trump is re-elected he will restart his trade war with China and try to decouple China from world trade which is currently dominated by the USD. China will have to go its own way and bring as many countries along with it as a trading block. This will include Thailand. The Thai Baht will strengthen because China will want to prop it up to strengthen bilateral trading ties.

 

If Trump is not re-elected, and US/China tensions ease, the Baht will fall. There could be a catastrophic crash when internal political divisions erupt again. This later scenario will not happen if Thailand is in bed with China because China will be a friend to, and support, the regime in power

[Max69xl]

On 8/18/2020 at 5:55 PM, bert bloggs said:

I have one????

I give you an advise, read newspapers or news websites online. You get better info there than from here. When you hear or read about the baht weakens or getting stronger, the reference is the USD. When the USD weakens, almost every other currency get stronger, incl the £. 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, JusticeGB said:

Until BREXIT is sorted out the pound will just float around. The US$ is weak at the moment and the baht is having problems with lack of tourists. The only thing holding up exports is the export of gold. All other exports particularly cars and rice are down substantially since last year. I don't think tourists will come back until late 2021. The baht is due a fall sometime soon.

I concur.