Thailand's entire tourism industry will collapse if foreign tourists are not allowed back, industry leader

[CapeTown]

"If they [local residents] give plans that include 14 day quarantine and one mile radius restrictions the thumbs down, then the industry could be doomed."

 

Not at all. The opposite. If residents APPROVE this, the tourist industry will collapse. Because it will delay decisions to implement real and effective solutions.

 

No-one thinking of visiting Thailand will do so under those conditions.

 

And since the whole idea is to keep Thailand covid-free, even if 100,000 or 2 million people do visit, the cordon round Phuket will never work and Thailand will soon be humming with covid. 

 

And BTW, since when has the govt ever consulted local people? It looks like it might be designed to shift the blame for wrong policy concerning the covid crisis onto the locals. "Well, they said they wanted to open up Phuket."

 

A different idea is to prepare the country for a possible wave, and then open up to selected departures - China is covid-free, they are a third of tourists, they have money. Why would an air bridge not work? Perhaps China has said no?

 

This could be done all across the country in time for the 20/21 high season. Making Thailand the envy of the world.

. 

Edited August 28, 2020 by CapeTown

[Saint Nick]

39 minutes ago, anchadian said:

By getting an education.

Easy peasy, right!

Just walk into one of the many free education- companies and start learning!

Nothing could be easier!

[miamiman123]

Deep six?

Help the people and businesses???

hell No! We want another submarine 

[rasmus5150]

21 minutes ago, The Farang said:

I doubt many people will want to come to Phuket, pay for an expensive hotel that they are forced to stay at for 14 days, then pay 3000 baht for COVID-19 tests.  Lets not forget the COVID-19 insurance you have to buy as well.  Most locals in Phuket don't want foreigners there because they're afraid of the COVID-19 spread. 

 

19 minutes ago, anterian said:

No foreign tourist would accept this Phuket model. 

They will all go to Greece, Croatia and Bulgaria. These countries are a lot cheaper, has very clean water and beaches, smiling and welcoming people and sun most of the year.

And best of all, no Chinese mass tourism.

[taninthai]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He is a proponent of the Phuket Model. He said that even if the scheme attracts only 100,000 foreign tourists a month that would be an important start.

????????????????????????clutching at straws might see a couple of thousand if that.

[ajarnmarc]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

but before they kept saying that tourism was not an important source of income for Thailand, what made them change their view

Heard that, and so many on here as well...

All said the same thing. 

Our participation wasn't meaningful, Thailand would just carry on as it were. 

Yet not a single post I saw, ever claimed they alone would make a difference in the economy, 

but as a whole.

The negatives started outplaying the positives for the country.

I believe every visitors knows full well, when they arrive, this isn't their country, 

and nothing will change because of them. It really comes down to judging the benefits any one country has to offer, is all. I think for the most part that is what posts here are expressing, and yet they get slammed down on how this isn't their country, should not try to change anything, and if you not like it; go elsewhere. Which is what I think most are expressing as there own consideration, as they evaluate the overall picture of day to day life within the kingdom. If they share their thoughts and some of their experiences, then constructive criticism can be provided from the community. As to how things might be similar elsewhere, and it's really not all that outlandish as we perceive it to be at the time...?

[Greenhill]

2 hours ago, Mavideol said:

please explain how the bar girls, soapy massage, hookers and so forth will reposition themselves

 

Learn some skills that are required by the modern world economy!!

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

1. You cannot run a business like an airline when you cannot fly planes into a country with passengers. Virgin boss and a lot of european cheap airlines  are pretty savvy to me , but even they are struggling and could well go broke if they do not open the skies before long.

 

2. Pilots and air crew are involved in tourism, what exactly do you want 1, 000,000 pilots and aircrew world wide to do ? 

Thats the rub. You can come up with a myriad of schemes but if the demand isn't there no one will get on a plane, regardless of whether borders are open.

 

Airlines worldwide are in dire straights, regardless many of them nothing to do with mis-management as some previous poster alluded to. 

 

The airline business is hand to mouth cash flow, you need to fill seats, you can't fly aircraft at 20% loads and make money, or even breakeven.

 

This is my post from a previous thread

 #44

Posted 21 hours ago

I'll come back to my broken old record.

 

Until you see domestic air travel rebound, the chances of a resurgence in long haul flights is just delusional.

 

There is a reason that the aircraft storage facilities in Victorville, Alice Springs and Teruel are bursting at the seams with widebody aircraft parked up for the duration of this nightmare.

 

Domestic air travel in North America & Europe is still below 50% of pre-COVID levels, and isn't predicted to rebound until at least some time in 2021.

 

So yeah, regardless of the absurdity that folks are going to travel half way round the world to spend half their vacation in quarantine, if they are terrified of spending a couple of hours on a domestic flight (I'm including all of Europe as domestic), then the chances of them wanting to spend 10+ hours on a plane getting to Thailand is just absurd.

 

Also a lot of those Europeans are probably already unemployed, they just don't know it yet. Wait to see what happens to businesses when all those furlough and payroll support schemes end.

 

Already in the US with the imminent end of the CARES act support for airlines, most of them are sending out notices to staff of impending mass layoffs of pilots and cabin crew

 

So I'm sure a lot of Thai officials are huddled in office of the Committee, the Sub Committee, the Working Party Advisory Group, putting together lots of pretty Power Point presentations of bridges to Phuket and beyond but it's all worthless if people won't fly, because airlines won't, and can't afford to fly planes if they can't fill them 

[Andrew65]

7 minutes ago, rasmus5150 said:

 

They will all go to Greece, Croatia and Bulgaria. These countries are a lot cheaper, has very clean water and beaches, smiling and welcoming people and sun most of the year.

And best of all, no Chinese mass tourism.

...but they don't have 30C weather in December & January.

[Andrew65]

2 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Thats the rub. You can come up with a myriad of schemes but if the demand isn't there no one will get on a plane, regardless of whether borders are open.

 

Airlines worldwide are in dire straights, regardless many of them nothing to do with mis-management as some previous poster alluded to. 

 

The airline business is hand to mouth cash flow, you need to fill seats, you can't fly aircraft at 20% loads and make money, or even breakeven.

 

This is my post from a previous thread

 #44

Posted 21 hours ago

I'll come back to my broken old record.

 

Until you see domestic air travel rebound, the chances of a resurgence in long haul flights is just delusional.

 

There is a reason that the aircraft storage facilities in Victorville, Alice Springs and Teruel are bursting at the seams with widebody aircraft parked up for the duration of this nightmare.

 

Domestic air travel in North America & Europe is still below 50% of pre-COVID levels, and isn't predicted to rebound until at least some time in 2021.

 

So yeah, regardless of the absurdity that folks are going to travel half way round the world to spend half their vacation in quarantine, if they are terrified of spending a couple of hours on a domestic flight (I'm including all of Europe as domestic), then the chances of them wanting to spend 10+ hours on a plane getting to Thailand is just absurd.

 

Also a lot of those Europeans are probably already unemployed, they just don't know it yet. Wait to see what happens to businesses when all those furlough and payroll support schemes end.

 

Already in the US with the imminent end of the CARES act support for airlines, most of them are sending out notices to staff of impending mass layoffs of pilots and cabin crew

 

So I'm sure a lot of Thai officials are huddled in office of the Committee, the Sub Committee, the Working Party Advisory Group, putting together lots of pretty Power Point presentations of bridges to Phuket and beyond but it's all worthless if people won't fly, because airlines won't, and can't afford to fly planes if they can't fill them 

Most airlines need about 70% of seats to be occupied just to break-even, correct me if I'm wrong.

[kaneko86]

I really hope it will collapse and let's not look away finding excuses. It's all the government's fault.

[GinBoy2]

1 minute ago, Andrew65 said:

Most airlines need about 70% of seats to be occupied just to break-even, correct me if I'm wrong.

It depends on aircraft type.

 

70% load factor is the bare minimum in general. But get to an A380 and you are talking 90%+

 

I look at passenger load factors at my station, just domestic flights, and I haven't seen consistent load factors like that for a long time.

 

What a lot of Western airlines have been doing is replacing mainline aircraft with regional jets (50-80 seats) to try to better fill flights.

 

Thats not possible when you get to the long haul widebody fleet

[phantomfiddler]

4 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

It has already collapsed, and it started long before covid19. 

Absolutely correct, it started just around the time that hundreds of thousands of "tourists" from that big triangular country started flooding the streets, which strangely commenced right after the most recent change in government ????

[poskat]

the bottom line is that having tourism and a zero-tolerance for new cases are not compatible.

 

Too bad the government and the media have convinced the thai population that getting the virus means you will die.

 

despite the low number of people who got sick from the virus (about 1 in 20,000)  the even lower number who died from it (less that 1 in a million), and no one getting sick from it for 7 2-week incubation cycles, almost all the thais I know, including a lot of doctors, remain terrified.

[Megasin1]

It's not just a Thai problem, it's a world change although Thailand works as hard as possible at making the difficult impossible. Mass tourism has ended for the foreseeable future. Thailand positioned itself as a low quality mass holiday destination to cater to the Chinese and Indian market, put them on tour buses, cram them into budget hotels and feed them at buffets. They zigged when they should have zagged. Many posters pointed out they were putting all their eggs in one basket and unfortunately the basket weave is unravelling. The old tourism is gone, I doubt that even the Chinese will allow themselves onto sardine transport for a few years. There is nothing that anyone can do, Mad hatter schemes will not work, hotels will close, airlines will go out of business, lots of people will become unemployed. Only the super fit, streamlined tourist businesses will survive. That is the future, its just how long it takes for them to realise.

[CapeTown]

19 minutes ago, Greenhill said:

 

Learn some skills that are required by the modern world economy!!

In practise these girls have gone back to their village and the fields.

Change starts in the education sector, but maybe at school - it's a bit late for these girls, though could train into better positions in hospitality - an emphasis on quality is needed to successfully rebuild the tourist sector. Its important! Its a quarter of gdp, it employs the poorer folk, the competition from overseas is rude.

Edited August 28, 2020 by CapeTown

[RubbaJohnny]

The mum n pop business will eat Mama

The small chains will flop as will all who depend mainly on foreign tourst, tukttuk jetski etc

The big International players can sit it out and buy up competitors cheaply

Streetwalkers may have to . err walk the streets

 

Of course if this winter season lost and I cannot imagine any real 2-3 week foreign tourist enduring not just quarantine both ends but many will have lower disposable income.

 

If it persist , unemployment, bankruptcy will infect all economies not just here, lost wok, pay means less spending.

Luckily despite the neighsayers Thai debt levels and credit management is better than many.

 

The crunch is coming as the 2 constraints, to keep safe and allow mass tourism are incomaptible.

The excrement is heading inexorably towards the ventilator at the HUB of  sufficieny education.

 

The hope, but don't expect before 2022 must be a vaccine and many are working flat out, I Imagine the firm to get a good one out first will do very well.

Edited August 28, 2020 by RubbaJohnny
typo

[Dialemco]

The Phuket plan is doomed as will not attract foreign tourists in any significant numbers. It amazes me that no one seems to realise many countries are suffering recession owing Covid crisis. If you want foreign tourism you have to pay them incentives to come not penalise them with ridiculous draconian measures. Economics will take over as many Thais reliant on tourism will suffer other serious health problems far greater than Covid so wake up before it is to late and find a way for tourism to restart yes with some carefully calculated risks.

[Chiang Mai Bill]

but before they kept saying that tourism was not an important source of income for Thailand, what made them change their view

 

Reality?

[ajarnmarc]

20 minutes ago, john69 said:

I've seen some callous comments on TV over the years, but these are more callous than most. Amazing how TV readers, many of them pot-bellied guests in this country, make light of millions of Thais being pushed into poverty by this crisis.

How does a persons weight or appearance "many of them pot-bellied guests in this country" relate to expressions or experiences which people have had within the country, and are describing here? Thai honestly pushed themselves to where ever they are in life. I opened a company here in Thailand 15 years ago, and it was always harder to find labor than to find customers. The locals would come to work for about two weeks, before they started coming up with issues to take 3 or 4 day weekends every two months, in addition to their days off. They continued to come up with issue to go back home for a month or two each year, hoping we would save their job, for when they sorted out the ill buffalo or worse still; family member, that no one else in the family could dare look after. At times they seemed to work harder to come up with excuses to not work reliably, than they ever would have just doing their jobs, per scheduled and agreed to at time of hire.

Always looking for advances, even when we decided to pay them weekly. If they worked longer then two years they would be looking for severance pay at time of dismissal; sometimes to the tune of three months pay, if they so desired. Most businesses had three times more people working than needed to run the business, so the labor would be seeking handouts, tips for performing their basic duties, either from the boss or from the customers. Claiming their salary was so low, yet the truth was they worked so slow, or little, or so inconsistent the owner of a company would have to hire more to cover day to day operations, due to how little effort the employees would put into the pride of their positions which they had. 

Overall they pushed themselves on the verge of poverty, if that is truly where you think they are...? by only working as much as they wished at any given time. 

[catch104]

4 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

No it won't totally collapse, same as airlines, the planes will be just bought by companies that know how to run a business.

 

Some will benefit from this "cleanup". Time to reposition yourself if you work in tourism. 

You are talking non sense. The tourism business is not few huge companies sharing the cake but thousands of business, hundred of thousand of small business directly or indirectly involve, million of workers directly or indirectly involve that spend in the economy. It has absolutely no similarities with airlines

[Bender Rodriguez]

when you put all your eggs in a chinese basket

[crazykopite]

Let’s get serious who would seriously come to Thailand knowing they have to spend the first 14 days confined to a room or a villa ,at the moment the only people who are doing that are individuals who are married to Thais who have no alternative the whole idea is absolutely crazy I could understand quarantine if the person arriving is tested positive at the airport on arrival . Tourists are never going to come with these ridiculous restrictions .

[Bob12345]

36 minutes ago, Saint Nick said:

Easy peasy, right!

Just walk into one of the many free education- companies and start learning!

Nothing could be easier!

Sarcasm?

 

My dad-in-law did just that: attending free local classes in his neighborhood a few years ago and now he makes flower from clay. Many more crafts were on offer, all free of charge.

[kingstonkid]

4 hours ago, Saint Nick said:

Care to explain how - in the current situation - millions who are working in tourism or in fields, profitting from tourism, should "reposition" themselves?

The easiest way is to start looking to market to Thai families then when tourists start to come back it is not the same geared to horny drunk old farts

[Deli]

6 countries, 2 flights per month = 12 plane loads per month

100.000 people per month as a target ? Something wrong in this Thai formular

[ThailandRyan]

Oh no, why oh why, just a shame that there are more people like him who believe that 

[ThomasThBKK]

10 minutes ago, catch104 said:

You are talking non sense. The tourism business is not few huge companies sharing the cake but thousands of business, hundred of thousand of small business directly or indirectly involve, million of workers directly or indirectly involve that spend in the economy. It has absolutely no similarities with airlines

 

It will be a few huge businesses after this, no worries. 

Cheap assets for the rich, it will just no longer be owned by normal thais, blame the government, not me. 

[laocowboy2]

It is not just the quarantine (I could hack that if necessary) but rather the pre-arrival mess. I live in Cyprus - no Thai embassy or consulate. With no more 30 days on arrival and the new visa and paperwork requirements, I am stuck. In theory I could fly to a country with an embassy and apply there but apart from the expense (flights, hotels while waiting for visa etc), that ups my chances of Covid-19 exposure - Cyprus is a very low Covid-19 country. Just not practical.

[spiekerjozef]

You kick them out already even before letting them back in.