Coronavirus: How long can Thailand survive without foreign tourism?

[webfact]

Coronavirus: How long can Thailand survive without foreign tourism?

Emmy Sasipornkarn

 

FILE PHOTO: Reuters

 

The lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 spread have taken a heavy toll on the Southeast Asian country's economy. Now, it is cautiously reopening its borders in order to revive its crucial tourism sector.

    

In Phuket, Thailand's largest island and a key tourist destination, many tour operators are struggling to stay in business without foreign travelers.

 

"COVID-19 has affected us. We haven't had any customers since the end of March," the caretaker of Phuketastic Travel told DW on condition of anonymity. Most of Phuketastic Travel's customers are Germans, who made the fourth-largest group of foreign travelers to visit Phuket in 2016, after the Chinese, the Russians and the Australians, according to the National Statistical Office of Thailand.

 

With the tour company's office temporarily closed during the pandemic, Phuketastic Travel's 40-year-old caretaker is facing financial hardship. There is little she can do apart from monitoring the ever-changing pandemic situation.

 

Full story: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-long-can-thailand-survive-without-foreign-tourism/a-54802819

 

-- © Copyright DW 2020-09-04

 

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[Thaiwrath]

2 minutes ago, webfact said:

How long can Thailand survive without foreign tourism?

Do a survey amongst the millions of unemployed, and there is your answer.

The unemployment figures will only increase as long as you stop tourists from entering. 

[Boomer6969]

I am sure Thailand could "survive" without foreign tourism. 

 

But hopefully foreign tourism will be reborn from ist ashes more decently upmarket. So let it burn for a while.

 

That the only domestic COVID case in 100 days has been found in Khaosan road bar looks like an amazing opportunity for further cleansing.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Boomer6969

[RotBenz8888]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

There is little she can do apart from monitoring the ever-changing pandemic situation.

There is one more thing she could do: monitor the Baht rate. 

[Ganesh108]

Thailand can survive, but on the economic level of the 1980s.

 

But not all Thais would survive, there would be uncountable cases of suicide, millions of people in severe depression or going mental.

 

 

[allane]

Posts like this are a laugh. Thailand survived for centuries, and will do so again. The last thing it needs is planeloads of foreigners arriving here from these Covid infested banana republics, which are unable to control the virus.

[exparte]

The question should not be about the Country. It will survive; but the devastating financial effects on the people will be the

more appropriate question.

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Phuketastic Travel's 40-year-old caretaker is facing financial hardship. There is little she can do apart from monitoring the ever-changing pandemic situation.

I'd suggest she looks for a new job, tourism is gone for good (the foreseeable future).

[86Tiger]

This is a silly premise, of course Thailand will survive.  But it will not prosper again for a very  long time....

[scammed]

'survive' they can survive, but its a step backwards in

prosperity, especially the poor

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Ganesh108 said:

Thailand can survive, but on the economic level of the 1980s.

 

But not all Thais would survive, there would be uncountable cases of suicide, millions of people in severe depression or going mental.

 

 

Many Thais having lost their jobs have come back to our village where they have family.

 

I can tell you that none of them is depressed or suicidal. 

 

One of them is working for us, part time, and is in no hurry to go back to his previous job in Bangkok. 

 

We were talking to another one yesterday evening and he said that he was thinking to go back looking for a job... after new year. 

 

It is amazing how many of the Isaan villagers who have left for a job in the big city still have an aptitude to fall back on their feet by returning to a hunter gatherer way of life... which is exactly what they do in our village (fishing + a few leaves and herbs + rice obviously). 

[moe666]

Opening the border with caution, when did that start

[RichardColeman]

I think it really means what you mean by surviving. North Korea could be said to be surviving, but i don't fancy a holiday there.

 

 

[benn dere]

Tourism is what 12% of GDP or thereabouts? I may be inclined to be more concerned of the economic impact from the slowdowns to the massive foreign investment in the manufacturing sector in Thailand. 12% is significant indeed though, hopefully industry can flourish and maintain a healthy economy chugging and tourism numbers can begin to return to normal levels.

Covid (and other mitigating factors) drove a big nail in Thai Airway's coffin, other major industries to follow?

Edited September 4, 2020 by benn dere

[Zikomat]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

 

 

It is amazing how many of the Isaan villagers who have left for a job in the big city still have an aptitude to fall back on their feet by returning to a hunter gatherer way of life... which is exactly what they do in our village (fishing + a few leaves and herbs + rice obviously). 

Yes , this is what their future will look like without tourists coming back: former taxi drivers will hunt the rats while former bargirls will do the gathering thing in the rice fields. Quite an optimistic picture, I agree.

[JusticeGB]

The daft current schemes on offer to open the tourism industry won't encourage many people to come unless they are coming for at least 3 months. Not that many people can take that much time to go on holiday. Another article in today's Thaivisa shows that only 15% of regular Swedish tourists will take an overseas holiday in 2022. If that is typical of other countries then Thailand's economy will take a very big hit and many hotels and tourist related businesses will close down some forever. 

[Brunolem]

35 minutes ago, Zikomat said:

Yes , this is what their future will look like without tourists coming back: former taxi drivers will hunt the rats while former bargirls will do the gathering thing in the rice fields. Quite an optimistic picture, I agree.

Nothing to do with optimism...this is called resilience, something Thai people have a lot of, and which Westerners severely lack.

 

Since this very unique crisis is truly global, countries with resilient populations (East Asia notably) will get out of it far better, and faster, than countries with populations addicted to their socialist nanny state.

 

 

[scammed]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Many Thais having lost their jobs have come back to our village where they have family.

 

I can tell you that none of them is depressed or suicidal. 

 

One of them is working for us, part time, and is in no hurry to go back to his previous job in Bangkok. 

 

We were talking to another one yesterday evening and he said that he was thinking to go back looking for a job... after new year. 

 

It is amazing how many of the Isaan villagers who have left for a job in the big city still have an aptitude to fall back on their feet by returning to a hunter gatherer way of life... which is exactly what they do in our village (fishing + a few leaves and herbs + rice obviously). 

i have a friend who has a couple of business in isaan,

but its so down now that even tho she wants noting more then work her business and be with her children,

she is now working in bangkok to put food on the table

[Pedrogaz]

Thailand will survive. The question is what will happen to the people displaced ie hotel and restaurant workers; and more importantly of course, hotel and business owners.

Thailand is about the most unequal place on earth in terms of wealth and income. It is about to get even more so. Forget about the revolution.....it ain't coming.....the serf class will just bow lower when they beg for food.

[MikeN]

1 hour ago, Zikomat said:

Yes , this is what their future will look like without tourists coming back: former taxi drivers will hunt the rats while former bargirls will do the gathering thing in the rice fields. Quite an optimistic picture, I agree.

Or they could try their hand at jobs which were below them pre-COVID, you know those ones only suitable for Burmese, like crew on fishing boats, or on building sites. But I can see that they may be less appealing than ripping off tourists when “the Grand Palace is closed today”, or sitting in a hammock counting the money from jet ski “damages”.

 Of course Thailand will survive without 40 million tourists. If there was going to be an epidemic of suicides it would have happened by now.

[natway09]

Tell me a country which is not in economic strife at present ?

NZ is predicting a 6 year road back 

Of sourse Thailand could "survive"

Thai exports are down by 14% but have a look at the 86% figure before getting carried away

[AlexRich]

Thailand will survive just fine, but those working in tourism, hospitality, etc will suffer the most. As has been already stated Thai people are resilient and can adapt to survive. It’s not just a Thai issue, everyone in the world is impacted. I’ll happily return to Thailand when the time is right.

[SpanishExpat]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Many Thais having lost their jobs have come back to our village where they have family.

 

I can tell you that none of them is depressed or suicidal. 

 

One of them is working for us, part time, and is in no hurry to go back to his previous job in Bangkok. 

 

We were talking to another one yesterday evening and he said that he was thinking to go back looking for a job... after new year. 

 

It is amazing how many of the Isaan villagers who have left for a job in the big city still have an aptitude to fall back on their feet by returning to a hunter gatherer way of life... which is exactly what they do in our village (fishing + a few leaves and herbs + rice obviously). 

It’s always the upper & the middle class who run a countries economy. Poor isaan people with their “mai bpen rai”attitude...I pity them, but they will be the ones who survive the longest. They won’t starve as farmers. 

 

However, wait until the masses in the middle class get problems, loose their jobs, can’t pay their monthly rates for their condos/houses/cars anymore. That’s when the desaster starts. Well it already started, as many middle-class income employees are not getting the bonuses. 
 

In Terms of “survive” Thailand could do that eternally on the pre-Covid level of Laos/Cambodia. It’s always the question how one defines the term “survive”.

[Grumpy John]

1 hour ago, JusticeGB said:

The daft current schemes on offer to open the tourism industry won't encourage many people to come unless they are coming for at least 3 months. Not that many people can take that much time to go on holiday. Another article in today's Thaivisa shows that only 15% of regular Swedish tourists will take an overseas holiday in 2022. If that is typical of other countries then Thailand's economy will take a very big hit and many hotels and tourist related businesses will close down some forever. 

My son is of similar mind. 2022 will be the year for more tourists.  His reckoning is it will take most people well into 2021 to gET their finances in order...that's if things settle down.  I agree. But the numbers will be in the few millions.  To get back to 40 million a year may not happen till 2030.  Interesting times.  Maybe a World War would have been less of a bother!  ????

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Coronavirus: How long can Thailand survive without foreign tourism?

That depends on the performance of the other 80% of the economy.

I don't give it much hope, even Thais don't seem to want to vacate here, even when it's offered at half price.

Foreigners have learnt there are better options closer to home at better prices and less documentation.

[Zikomat]

58 minutes ago, MikeN said:

Or they could try their hand at jobs which were below them pre-COVID, you know those ones only suitable for Burmese, like crew on fishing boats, or on building sites. But I can see that they may be less appealing than ripping off tourists when “the Grand Palace is closed today”, or sitting in a hammock counting the money from jet ski “damages”.

 Of course Thailand will survive without 40 million tourists. If there was going to be an epidemic of suicides it would have happened by now.

I think the word survive in the title is not used in its literal meaning. Yes, nobody (almost) will die. But the quality of life will definitely go down for millions. 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Zikomat

[Bender Rodriguez]

thailand always said tourism was only good for 10 percent of GDP... so ....

[Scot123]

Reading posts on here one must question the gray matter between the ears. Why do people forget the exodus of foreign investment when the coup happened and realisation of foreign investment being on the whim of generals (I think the number was 75% left then and the has been a slow exodus since then). Toyoto closing down production of Prius, and the gold mine attempted theft which  cost the country greatly at the time and the bill has yet to be paid. Exports crashed (only precious metals and Gems gave little glitch spikes) so things were not rosy before The Chinese C19 and the military reaction to it. In layman's terms the country is or has crashed by about 50%. Thailand is in a very bad way and this is being well hidden by the generals. When Sorus turns his gaze at Thailand again the last crash will be like a Sunday brunch in comparison. 

[OneMoreFarang]

"How long can Thailand survive without foreign tourism?"

 

Forever! People adapt. And it seems Thais are very good in adapting to new situation. Today this job, tomorrow that job seems to be pretty normal.

In lots of other countries lots of people seem to think that they have the right to do the same job for the rest of their lives. No, there is no such right. Get used to it!

[George Aylesham]

7 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

Do a survey amongst the millions of unemployed, and there is your answer.

The unemployment figures will only increase as long as you stop tourists from entering. 

Thailand can survive - its the international tourism trade which is at serious risk.