The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[samran]

Has the economy crashed yet?

it's only a matter of time. give it a decade or two

Cool. Most of the analysts like to say in the next few months (every few months).

The samran SET special "this might buy me a businss class ticket" fund (size not very much!) is up 25% since April at the time of printing. This is after the sub-prime scare, mind you.

Yep, an economy going to the crapper for sure.

[Mid]

sounds like a losing proposition should you have to buy another for the missus ..............................................

[samran]

sounds like a losing proposition should you have to buy another for the missus ..............................................

mate, she flies busines class. I get the 'Turdstar'...um sorry 'Jetstar' 999 baht special to Geelong. I catch the bus the rest of the way home to melbourne.

[soundman]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

Well that is in sharp contrast to the TAT releasing figures showing record tourist arrivals.

[highdiver]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

it is down all over the world as people now are using the net to reserve hotels and flights. the buisness of travel agents all over the world is a dissapearing act...

comprehension

noun

the ability to understand completely and be aware of a situation, facts, etc:

not just cut and paste....

[Mid]

sounds like a losing proposition should you have to buy another for the missus ..............................................

mate, she flies busines class. I get the 'Turdstar'...um sorry 'Jetstar' 999 baht special to Geelong. I catch the bus the rest of the way home to melbourne.

touché

[samran]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

it is down all over the world as people now are using the net to reserve hotels and flights. the buisness of travel agents all over the world is a dissapearing act...

comprehension

noun

the ability to understand completely and be aware of a situation, facts, etc:

not just cut and paste....

agree, for a couple of reasons. Firstly people book online. Secondly, the physical number of travel agents is decreasing due to the fact that there is very little margin in the business.

[John K]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

Well that is in sharp contrast to the TAT releasing figures showing record tourist arrivals.

Yes it is a big contrast, and vacancies and normally full hotels don’t support what TAT is saying. It is fairly easy to spot deception when there are many sources of information that differ from what one is saying.

Edited September 12, 2007 by John K

[highdiver]

Slump in foreign visitors 15% fall in those booking via agents

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has warned of a sharp drop in the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Published on September 12, 2007

It says the number of foreign tourists who arrived at Suvarnabhumi between January and August, after booking their travel through travel agencies, totalled 1.57 million, down by a whopping 15.3 per cent from the corresponding period last year.

The association's figures show that the arrivals were down by 350,000 from 1.92 million in the first eight months of 2006.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

it is down all over the world as people now are using the net to reserve hotels and flights. the buisness of travel agents all over the world is a dissapearing act...

comprehension

noun

the ability to understand completely and be aware of a situation, facts, etc:

not just cut and paste....

agree, for a couple of reasons. Firstly people book online. Secondly, the physical number of travel agents is decreasing due to the fact that there is very little margin in the business.

today will be a good day to invest..... mid has posted so many dooms day one liner cut and paste...

lets see... yes its up a gain to 802 as this is printed...

I am telling you this is fail proof...

[cclub75]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year grew 4.4 percent against 4.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Ah la la... boring. "And growth in Q1 was revised down from 4.3 to 4.2".

Check all the faces of the coin.

-what was the growth in the previous quarters

-how evolve the components of the GDP

The trend. The trend.

This what you're failing to see.

Edited September 12, 2007 by cclub75

[highdiver]

Nothing like a bit of economic reality

unlikely to be coming from one who is unaware of the gender of the BOT Governor .......................

at least he did not use the "edit".... unlike those who dont know where Phuket is and then delete the whole post because they not only look like fools... they are!!!

[highdiver]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year grew 4.4 percent against 4.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Ah la la... boring. "And growth in Q1 was revised down from 4.3 to 4.2".

Check all the faces of the coin.

-what was the growth in the previous quarters

-how evolve the components of the GDP

The trend. The trend.

This what you're failing to see.

where is the trend going ???

TRADE / EXPORT OUTLOOK

Firms confident export growth can hit 12.5%

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Local economic forecasters and exporters of more than 40 products were confident that the country's exports are on track to rise 12.5% this year despite weak performances in the last two months.

Only shipments of a few categories such as apparel, gems, jewellery and shrimp might not meet targets, said participants at a meeting called yesterday by Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet.

Thailand's exports expanded just 6.2% in July and 6% in August from the year before in US dollar terms, a sharp drop from the 18% growth posted in the first half.

However, Mr Krirk-krai said that the country's exports remained strong when compared with other Asian countries. In the seven months to July, exports grew an average of 16.6% year-on-year to US$843.41 billion. China posted robust growth of 27.6% during the first half to $546.92 billion, and South Korea had 14.5% growth year-on-year to $177.92 billion.

The Bank of Thailand previously forecast second-half export growth to slow to between 5.6% and 11.6%, down from 18.4% in the first half. Total export growth for the year remains on track at 12% to 15% over the year before.

Crisis ....what crisis???

[Mid]

Nothing like a bit of economic reality

unlikely to be coming from one who is unaware of the gender of the BOT Governor .......................

at least he did not use the "edit".... unlike those who dont know where Phuket is and then delete the whole post because they not only look like fools... they are!!!

thread was deleted by a mod not moi ,

still as usual don't let facts get in your way

beliefnet.com

[highdiver]

Nothing like a bit of economic reality

unlikely to be coming from one who is unaware of the gender of the BOT Governor .......................

at least he did not use the "edit".... unlike those who dont know where Phuket is and then delete the whole post because they not only look like fools... they are!!!

thread was deleted by a mod not moi ,

still as usual don't let facts get in your way

beliefnet.com

i dont let the fact get in the way. I love facts and understanding them...on the contrary to those who cut and paste...and dont know where phuket is or the difference between FIT tourist market and Agent Serviced Market.

[Mid]

and then delete the whole post because they not only look like fools

where's the facts ??

theretrobaby.com

[Mid]

Thai PM reassures investors on economy

36 minutes ago

BANGKOK (AFP) — Thailand's army-installed premier on Wednesday reassured investors that the Thai economy is on track to grow by up to 4.5 percent this year, and insisted the country is headed back to democracy.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said despite slowing exports, the Thai economy is expected to grow by 4.0 to 4.5 percent in 2007.

snip

afp.google.com

Edited September 12, 2007 by Mid

[Prakanong]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year grew 4.4 percent against 4.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/6253875.html

Thai Firms confident export growth can hit 12.5%

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/12Sep2007_biz37.php

Nothing like a bit of economic reality to upset the whingers.

As you are well away 4.2 or 4.4 is not very good for an economy such as Thailands as regards maturity etc.

Just to absorb newcomer to the employment market it needs more than that does it not?

Never mind looking in isolation - its meaningless

What are its competitors doing in the region?

6-8-10% and more?

[samran]

Never mind looking in isolation - its meaningless

What are its competitors doing in the region?

6-8-10% and more?

very good advice.

I'm not commenting on the general level/non level of malaise in the country, and I don't know what the 'ideal' number is, but we should not be trying to compare figurative penis sizes here.

Thailands growth policy should not be 'growth at any cost'. Who is to say that 6-10% in Thailand won't be overly inflatoinary, like it appears to be in China of late?

Sure you need to keep unemployment low, but if the trade off is high inflation, then everythings is just an illusion.

[Prakanong]

Never mind looking in isolation - its meaningless

What are its competitors doing in the region?

6-8-10% and more?

very good advice.

I'm not commenting on the general level/non level of malaise in the country, and I don't know what the 'ideal' number is, but we should not be trying to compare figurative penis sizes here.

Thailands growth policy should not be 'growth at any cost'. Who is to say that 6-10% in Thailand won't be overly inflatoinary, like it appears to be in China of late?

Sure you need to keep unemployment low, but if the trade off is high inflation, then everythings is just an illusion.

Yes its a delicate balance for many economies but at this stage of development I think an increased growth rate is required.

I do not think there is a crisis in Thailand's economy and said so many pages ago in this thread. The structure of the economy might need adjusting a bit - apparel exports are not going to meet theior targets and we know where those are going.

The automotive sector is looking fine but other industry sectors need to be looked at too. Vietnam is attracting Microsoft and Intel - other countries in the region are attracting other high value jobs. Thailand mind not comptete directly but there are other area's it should look at.

Yes of course there is investment and its increasing - again what are its competitors doing? Assembling parts designed and made elsewhere is not the way to go - competing on price alone and Thailand wil lose out.

[Carmine6]

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year grew 4.4 percent against 4.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Ah la la... boring. "And growth in Q1 was revised down from 4.3 to 4.2".

Check all the faces of the coin.

-what was the growth in the previous quarters

-how evolve the components of the GDP

The trend. The trend.

This what you're failing to see.

where is the trend going ???

TRADE / EXPORT OUTLOOK

Firms confident export growth can hit 12.5%

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Local economic forecasters and exporters of more than 40 products were confident that the country's exports are on track to rise 12.5% this year despite weak performances in the last two months.

Only shipments of a few categories such as apparel, gems, jewellery and shrimp might not meet targets, said participants at a meeting called yesterday by Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet.

Thailand's exports expanded just 6.2% in July and 6% in August from the year before in US dollar terms, a sharp drop from the 18% growth posted in the first half.

However, Mr Krirk-krai said that the country's exports remained strong when compared with other Asian countries. In the seven months to July, exports grew an average of 16.6% year-on-year to US$843.41 billion. China posted robust growth of 27.6% during the first half to $546.92 billion, and South Korea had 14.5% growth year-on-year to $177.92 billion.

The Bank of Thailand previously forecast second-half export growth to slow to between 5.6% and 11.6%, down from 18.4% in the first half. Total export growth for the year remains on track at 12% to 15% over the year before.

Crisis ....what crisis???

Come on, complain about people just cutting and pasting, and then do the same. Most of this growth is due to the 9%-10% strengthening of the baht against the dollar. So the baht growth is pretty low. It could be less than 4% year to date with the August year over year decline added in.

Plus the total tonnage of agricultural, fish and canned products exports is near record levels this year and prices in baht per ton have started dropping. Early in the year the exporters got the benefit of the higher volume, but then prices started declining in baht terms. If the baht hadn't strengthened, exporters would have had a great year.

August did improve compared to July so that's a good sign.

It's not a crisis yet, but it's not a great result.

[xbusman]

I think the official tally is that baht has increased against the dollar 13.5% in the last thirteen months. If that is indeed the number, they are forcasting a decrease in exports this year in actual goods and services of about 1%. The contraction in exports has to be made up in either consumer spending or government spending. We know consumers are slowing, we know tourism is down, so its up to the interim government to spend us into the 4.5% growth by the end of the year. I think with the upcoming election, they have a real problem on their hands. I do see a lot of government spending all around Bangkok though, lots of new roads, the new rail line to the airport.

We had about a 9% contraction in July and August exports, meanwhile China set new records. If the US economy is indeed slowing down, that means that China is absorbing our market share to sustain their growth. I think the key to all this is to watch the exports in Sept and Oct which are traditionally huge months as retailers stock for Christmas. If the next two months continue to contract, we could be in for some interesting times.

[samran]

I think the official tally is that baht has increased against the dollar 13.5% in the last thirteen months. If that is indeed the number, they are forcasting a decrease in exports this year in actual goods and services of about 1%. The contraction in exports has to be made up in either consumer spending or government spending. We know consumers are slowing, we know tourism is down, so its up to the interim government to spend us into the 4.5% growth by the end of the year. I think with the upcoming election, they have a real problem on their hands. I do see a lot of government spending all around Bangkok though, lots of new roads, the new rail line to the airport.

We had about a 9% contraction in July and August exports, meanwhile China set new records. If the US economy is indeed slowing down, that means that China is absorbing our market share to sustain their growth. I think the key to all this is to watch the exports in Sept and Oct which are traditionally huge months as retailers stock for Christmas. If the next two months continue to contract, we could be in for some interesting times.

yeah, but china is keeping its currency artificially week, and that is injecting huge amounts of foreign liqidity into the chinese economy. As a result, not only do they have a fast growing economy, they have at least 6% inflation. The inflation, as they fix the exchange rate, is not controllable to any large extent my monetary policy.

So while china is growing, what it is doing is also creating problems for itself that are harder to undo than to prevent. The excess liquidity is going to cause rampant over supply at some point.

What the floating exchange rate is doing for Thailand is slowly waking up the powers that be, as well as SME's that they can't survive doing what they have always done (and that they are pissing in the wind if they tried). Like it or lump it, this can only be a good thing for the Thai economy as it forces companies to update their practices.

[highdiver]

I think the official tally is that baht has increased against the dollar 13.5% in the last thirteen months. If that is indeed the number, they are forcasting a decrease in exports this year in actual goods and services of about 1%. The contraction in exports has to be made up in either consumer spending or government spending. We know consumers are slowing, we know tourism is down, so its up to the interim government to spend us into the 4.5% growth by the end of the year. I think with the upcoming election, they have a real problem on their hands. I do see a lot of government spending all around Bangkok though, lots of new roads, the new rail line to the airport.

We had about a 9% contraction in July and August exports, meanwhile China set new records. If the US economy is indeed slowing down, that means that China is absorbing our market share to sustain their growth. I think the key to all this is to watch the exports in Sept and Oct which are traditionally huge months as retailers stock for Christmas. If the next two months continue to contract, we could be in for some interesting times.

one again... for those that dont know first year economy...

GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (exports − imports)

in thailand

consumption down if refering to consumers up if resering to inductrial.

investment including forign investment up ... very very up

goverment spending up and planed more up.

exports up regardless of the strong baht.

imports down becuase of the strong baht.

export - imports is still very high in the postive hence thailand is exporting a lot more then it is importing hence the positive trade...

all in all many countries will love to have this results.

As per your assumptions about export contracting... it is not!! the exports are still GROWING yet not at the fantastic rate is was growing before. this is not a problem as Samran explained to you as they have to find the balance between export growth and inlation.

At the end of the day it is still growth... a 4.5% growth is still a growth and a growt of 6% in exports is still gowth..

if you look at thailand as a private business then its producing more selling more while buying less and spending more on investments.

on any standard they are doing very well...

[highdiver]

for those intrested in the thai economy

The Stock Exchange of Thailand launched the first Thailand Focus in 2004, followed by the second in 2005. This year’s event, Thailand Focus 2007 - with the theme Platforms for Growth - is the largest securities conference ever in Thailand and has some innovative features, such as the opportunity for investors to hear from Thai policy makers and business leaders. His Excellency Gen. Surayud Chulanont, Prime Minister of Thailand, will deliver the keynote address, This Government’s Legacy for Thailand.

In addition, the conference will include one-on-one and small group meetings involving 73 listed companies and decision-makers from institutional equity fund management firms who have significant involvement in Thailand.

Plaza Athenee, Bangkok

Date: September 12-14, 2007

Organized by: The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Phatra Securities Company Limited

Merrill Lynch Co., Ltd.

by the turn up today of forign invetment groups i can safely say that Thailand is no where near a crisis. at least by those who are actually in the game of investments.

Edited September 12, 2007 by highdiver

[xbusman]

Highdiver, I dont quite get your math. I still think you would be better off using Zimbabwe dollars, we could have 2000% increase in exports and all feel much better.

[LaoPo]

I think the official tally is that baht has increased against the dollar 13.5% in the last thirteen months. If that is indeed the number, they are forcasting a decrease in exports this year in actual goods and services of about 1%. The contraction in exports has to be made up in either consumer spending or government spending. We know consumers are slowing, we know tourism is down, so its up to the interim government to spend us into the 4.5% growth by the end of the year. I think with the upcoming election, they have a real problem on their hands. I do see a lot of government spending all around Bangkok though, lots of new roads, the new rail line to the airport.

We had about a 9% contraction in July and August exports, meanwhile China set new records. If the US economy is indeed slowing down, that means that China is absorbing our market share to sustain their growth. I think the key to all this is to watch the exports in Sept and Oct which are traditionally huge months as retailers stock for Christmas. If the next two months continue to contract, we could be in for some interesting times.

yeah, but china is keeping its currency artificially week, and that is injecting huge amounts of foreign liqidity into the chinese economy. As a result, not only do they have a fast growing economy, they have at least 6% inflation. The inflation, as they fix the exchange rate, is not controllable to any large extent my monetary policy.

So while china is growing, what it is doing is also creating problems for itself that are harder to undo than to prevent. The excess liquidity is going to cause rampant over supply at some point.

What the floating exchange rate is doing for Thailand is slowly waking up the powers that be, as well as SME's that they can't survive doing what they have always done (and that they are pissing in the wind if they tried). Like it or lump it, this can only be a good thing for the Thai economy as it forces companies to update their practices.

The CPI of China in August was high with 6.5%, Y-on-Y basis, and the inflation is indeed worrying. The average from January-August is however 3.9% but still above the target of 3% for the whole of 2007.

The Yuan appreciated some 10% in the last 22-24 months and will gradually go up in the future.

Also, China is investing huge amounts of liquidity in foreign markets, like US bonds, more than investments into China from abroad.

Apart from that one cannot compare Thailand's economy of 65 Million people with the 1.3 Billion of China; simply impossible. Thailand has just 5% of that population.

A comparison example with Thailand could be the province of Guangdong alone (Guangzhou & Shenzhen a.o., close to Hong Kong) with now some 110 million people (79 million permanent residents and 31 million migrants (!), living in Guangdong for more than 6 months...).

Both Thailand and China have mutual problems like the rising food prices but the scale difference, of course, is enormous.

I certainly hope that the food prices in Thailand don't go up any further since that would create a growth in inflation, influencing the Thai economy.

LaoPo

[Prakanong]

Since the governement spending part of the GDP equation includes military spending and their bidget has been increased by 34% and 26% since the coup I wonder how the GDP figure looks without this?

Does Thailand post its methodology for calculating its GDP anywhere like a lot of other countries - there can be differences in methodology?

Its a bit like company accounts - you have to look beyond the financial statements the company puts out - of course they want to put the best possible picture out there

[Old Man River]

Highdiver, I dont quite get your math. I still think you would be better off using Zimbabwe dollars, we could have 2000% increase in exports and all feel much better.

While I also think that using the local currency is best when comparing Thai exports against Thai exports in different periods, it is worthy to mention that the vast majority of Thailand's exports are USD denominated, so using USD's as the base doesn't bias the figures as much as it would appear.

I am not saying that the vast majority of Thailand's exports go to the US, just their exports being USD denominated. For example, a lot of the exports that go to Japan are billed in USD's, not Yen. This is because often Japanese manufacturers seek a natural hedge against their USD denominated imports. Same in other export markets.

[Solosiam]

Exports account for a fairly small percentage of GDP, I don't see why people are so focussed on exports whilst talking about GDP.

[Mid]

Exports account for a fairly small percentage of GDP, I don't see why people are so focussed on exports whilst talking about GDP.

ECONOMY

The Thai economy is export-dependent, with exports of goods and services accounting for 68.6% of GDP in 2006.

state.gov