Korean Found with COVID after Returning from Bangkok

[richard_smith237]

14 hours ago, NanLaew said:

Where's the link to any claim by Thailand that they are Covid free?

 

Must bash on, eh?

 

Thailands Dept Prime Pinister / Public Health Minister, Anutin announced Thailand had ’no local transmission of Covid-19 for 100 days’ 

https://tna.mcot.net/latest-news-528096

 

No local transmission is not exactly the same as 100% Covid-19 free, yet the implications are the same.

Edited September 10, 2020 by richard_smith237

[NanLaew]

15 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Hees a link to a story indicating they have had no domestic cases so in essence Covid free.  Do not test Do not Tell

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/thailand-100-days-coronavirus-free-intl-hnk/index.html

Who's 'in essence' are we talking about here?

 

There are no statements in the CNN article that claim Thailand is Covid free, either from the CNN reporter or any of the Thai government, tourism and health people being quoted.

 

Bash on.

Edited September 10, 2020 by NanLaew

[NanLaew]

26 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Thailands Dept Prime Pinister / Public Health Minister, Anutin announced Thailand had ’no local transmission of Covid-19 for 100 days’ 

https://tna.mcot.net/latest-news-528096

 

No local transmission is not exactly the same as 100% Covid-19 free, yet the implications are the same.

Who's implication? DPM and Health Minister Anutin simply quoted a fact.

 

Bash on.

Edited September 10, 2020 by NanLaew

[Burma Bill]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Maybe he was infected by the DJ

Exactly what entered my mind, perhaps he may have visited the restaurant/bar where the DJ worked.

[Sheryl]

10 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Not just ThaiVisa members, but Thailands Dept Prime Pinister / Public Health Minister, Anutin also lorded virtuous Thailand having had no local transmission for 100 days, along with scores of media, local and international. 

 

That said, no local transmission is not quite the same as 100% Covid-19 free, yet the implications are the same. 

 

https://tna.mcot.net/latest-news-528096

 

 

 

 

 

I would disagree that the implications are the same. In one case continued precautions are needed to prevent the likely unidentified but still present small number of lical infections from spiralling. In the other case no need to do other than seal the borders.

 

No country, anywhere, has claimed 100% COVID eradication. I think people are reading into public statements more than is thete (and press reports often miss key nuances...i.e. no cases foubd gets reported as simply no cases, among other things). And some public figures who are not medically trained also miss such nuances.

 

[JusticeGB]

Thailand has done remarkably well in keeping numbers down but it's a bit strange that two cases have popped up out of the wood this week. Both come from compulsory testing one of a prisoner and the other of a person returning to Korea. Thailand has tested 1% of its population and the Uk and the USA over 26% of their populations. The lack of testing could be hiding a lot of cases. There are over 69m people in Thailand. 

[Sheryl]

25 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Who's implication? DPM and Health Minister Anutin simply quoted a fact.

 

Bash on.

Actually the exact words of these 2 people are not quoted let alone cited in the original Thai.  What we have is media paraphrasing. "We have not found a single case" or "nit a single case reported" could easily be rendered by the media as "there have been no cases". All manner of important distinctions get missed in media reports  consistently (even for example the difference between antigen and antibody, or State Quarantine and ASQ). Media reports are anything but precise, with regard to COVID or anything else.

[Bender Rodriguez]

so funny

[Sheryl]

10 minutes ago, JusticeGB said:

Thailand has done remarkably well in keeping numbers down but it's a bit strange that two cases have popped up out of the wood this week. Both come from compulsory testing one of a prisoner and the other of a person returning to Korea. Thailand has tested 1% of its population and the Uk and the USA over 26% of their populations. The lack of testing could be hiding a lot of cases. There are over 69m people in Thailand. 

There were  another 2 cases foynd  in people arriving abroad from Thailand recently (Japan and Malaysia) so actually 4 in total recently (which is still very few). As more Thais start travelling we can expect to see more cases here and there. In no way surprising. Most were asymptonatic and had they not crossed international boundries (or in one case been arrested) they would not have been tested.

 

Thailand has not been doing random testing but rather very targeted testing pretty much limited to people arriving from abroad, symptomatic or other special risk groups. So it is misleafing to tslk in terns od percentages. Testing of adymptomatic people in tbe general population is effectively nil.

 

There is nothing wrong with that approach at this time as there is no ibdication that mass testing would be remotely cost effective at this time.   The government has however been setting up more testing facilities so as to be able to step up testing should future circumstances make it necessary.

 

Relative to the total number of travellers the number of cases being found is still quite small at this point.

[AlfHuy]

The Thai and Japanese who travelled from Thailand to Japan, the Malaysian who travelled from BKK to Malaysia....

 

No news about that. 

They watched the virus from a danish salmon, just when they were leaving the airplane.

[Caldera]

A picture is starting to emerge...

[richard_smith237]

A number of people I know have picked up ‘colds’ this week. 

 

Some friends of ours have colds. 

Some guys I know have colds and say a lot of people in their office have colds. 

 

I’m wondering if his is just a regular cold or are these mild Covid-19 cases? - without testing we’ll never know and people with a mild cold are just going to hide because they don’t want to be locked in a hospital for two weeks.

 

 

Which leads to another point: Where does all this end? Flu outbreak = lock down? Colds = lockdown and hysteria ?

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by richard_smith237

[steelepulse]

Here's a good summary about what a PCR test is and what it's supposed to be used for.  It's a female Kiwi doctor explaining things.  

 

 

[treetops]

14 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Thailand is not  considered COVID free and has never been certified as such.

 

In fact no country in the world has done this.

I don't think there's a certification board as such, but if there were then several South Sea Island nations would have a valid claim.  Places like Tonga, Vanuata, Solomon Islands and Micronesia that shut down and/or imposed quarantine in early February, and even those like Samoa and Kiribata who were a bit later all have no reported cases.

[NanLaew]

20 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

A number of people I know have picked up ‘colds’ this week. 

 

Some friends of ours have colds. 

Some guys I know have colds and say a lot of people in their office have colds. 

 

I’m wondering if his is just a regular cold or are these mild Covid-19 cases? - without testing we’ll never know and people with a mild cold are just going to hide because they don’t want to be locked in a hospital for two weeks.

 

 

Which leads to another point: Where does all this end? Flu outbreak = lock down? Colds = lockdown and hysteria ?

 

 

Don't let anyone stop you doing your own research and rediscovering the tables that define different symptoms between a common cold and Covid-19. These were common enough way back in March when a degree of hysteria did apply. While you are there, you can also check for the clearly defined different symptoms of Covid-19 and seasonal influenza. With flu season kicking off in the northern hemisphere, it appears a lot of people with a short attention span have also forgotten those east-to-spot differences.

 

Gotta nip that hysteria in the bud.

[mommysboy]

30 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

A number of people I know have picked up ‘colds’ this week. 

 

Some friends of ours have colds. 

Some guys I know have colds and say a lot of people in their office have colds. 

 

I’m wondering if his is just a regular cold or are these mild Covid-19 cases? - without testing we’ll never know and people with a mild cold are just going to hide because they don’t want to be locked in a hospital for two weeks.

 

 

Which leads to another point: Where does all this end? Flu outbreak = lock down? Colds = lockdown and hysteria ?

 

 

 

 

Colds will continue of course as they have done throughout history.  It's safe to assume that these people just have any one of a number of different types of viruses that we collectively call 'a cold'.  

 

It does rather highlight the futility of masks in confined areas in my opinion.

 

But actually the cure to covid19 could be other competing viruses, and they also boost the immune system with general antibodies.

Edited September 10, 2020 by mommysboy

[DavisH]

11 hours ago, AbeNormal said:

anybody "herd" of immunity  

 

There is a total lack of any data from Thailand, it's a big void of no testing and no reporting, yes they test people arriving from other countries and proudly report it, as for the rest, they simply don't know

There is a lot of testing going on here - just not random mass testing of the population - prisoners and those admitted for surgery are two examples, and those suspected of having covid, are tested. If noone is presenting to hospital with symptoms - and any that are infected but are asymptomatic anyway, who cares? I don't buy the story of high numbers of asymptomatic carriers present in Thailand - they would spread the virus and infect others causing symptoms. Many would end up at hospital. 

[Megasin1]

11 minutes ago, DavisH said:

There is a lot of testing going on here - just not random mass testing of the population - prisoners and those admitted for surgery are two examples, and those suspected of having covid, are tested. If no one is presenting to hospital with symptoms - and any that are infected but are asymptomatic anyway, who cares? I don't buy the story of high numbers of asymptomatic carriers present in Thailand - they would spread the virus and infect others causing symptoms. Many would end up at hospital. 

Everyone to their own opinion as I do believe that asymptomatic Covid is absolutely rife in Thailand and that for some reason, maybe genetic, they don't suffer the symptoms like others. This is the real reason why they won't open to tourists. Their reputation would be destroyed. Better to try and present as Covid free than to return tourists infected to countries who will quickly identify the origin.

[Scot123]

17 hours ago, JHicks said:

Will they have done another one so soon after the first? I thought they normally waited a week. I'm not sure what type of test they use but in general the rate of false positives is supposed to be 0.1% I guess the number of people leaving Thailand and getting tested is in the thousands, so you would expect one or two false positives here and there. Until they find the source of the DJ's infection it's pretty much moot anyway.

Sorry but where did you get the 0.1 false positive from as that is no where near the case. Numbers of false positives have numbers of upto 50%. My wife has a Covid test every week and people are always getting false positives and just last week the whole stage had inconclusive result.

[Sheryl]

46 minutes ago, DavisH said:

 I don't buy the story of high numbers of asymptomatic carriers present in Thailand - they would spread the virus and infect others causing symptoms. Many would end up at hospital. 

 

True if numbers were really high. But not if they are humming along at a low level as is quite possible.

 

A number of factors here help to reduce the extent and speed  of virus spread: culture that does nor shake hands or engage in much PDA; tendency to socialize out of doors; religion that doesn't tend to much in the way of crowded indoor gatherings (unlike Islam,  Judaism and Christianity;  mosques, churches and synagogues  have been implicated in many outbreaks in other countries);  except for Bangkok, relatively low population density. Add to that continued mask wearing at least in indoor public venues and continued ban on many of the things likely to be superspreader events (e.g. sports matches with live spectators) and the result is that infected persons, especially asymptomatic ones, may not infect many others,  thus allowing overall numbers of infected to stay pretty well below the radar.

 

If I were the authorities I would be a bit concerned about indoor bars and clubs reopening and also keep an eye on the BTS and buses in Bangkok as these seem the greatest vulnerabilities.

[CLW]

Blasphemy. Even a child knows that Thailand is free of Covid 19

[Sheryl]

27 minutes ago, Megasin1 said:

Everyone to their own opinion as I do believe that asymptomatic Covid is absolutely rife in Thailand and that for some reason, maybe genetic, they don't suffer the symptoms like others. This is the real reason why they won't open to tourists. Their reputation would be destroyed. Better to try and present as Covid free than to return tourists infected to countries who will quickly identify the origin.

At the height of it last spring hundreds of Thais were quite symptomatic and dozens died. Would have been worse had more elderly been infected but luckily spread was mainly among young and middle aged population segment.

 

As for the idea that the govt is conspiring to save face, if that were true they would block their nationals from travelling abroad, which they have not done.

 

I think people are reading too much into things. There is simply not a huge number of cases at present.

 

A few months back people were hypothesizing some sort of genetic factor to explain why so few cases in India and South America.  We all know what has since happened.

 

Luckily Thailand has nowhere near the population density of India and a much stronger  public health system.

 

Still, as this pandemic has amply shown, cases can exponentially rise in places where they were previously few. It is far from over and certainly too soon to draw conclusions about susceptability by country.

[richard_smith237]

6 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Still, as this pandemic has amply shown, cases can exponentially rise in places where they were previously few. It is far from over and certainly too soon to draw conclusions about susceptability by country.

Why may indicate that a nation simply cannot avoid Covid-19. 

 

Further increases in Covid-19 cases (what some call a second wave) in the US and Europe have not lead to an significant increase in hospitalisations or deaths as with the primary / first wave which could indicate community immunity (herd immunity) is in play. 

 

Either Thailand already has herd immunity due to earlier exposure to Covid-19 in Nov / Dec of 2019 at a time where an absence in attention meant the reported increases in viral pneumonia were simply reported without the current degree of attention or associated hysteria.

 

Or, an outbreak in Thailand pends and is inevitable regardless of the actions, lockdowns, isolation etc. All that Thailand can do is 'smooth the curve’ when that happens utlising current measures along with further lockdowns when the increases do start to spike. 

 

 

 

 

[Sheryl]

27 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Why may indicate that a nation simply cannot avoid Covid-19. 

 

Further increases in Covid-19 cases (what some call a second wave) in the US and Europe have not lead to an significant increase in hospitalisations or deaths as with the primary / first wave which could indicate community immunity (herd immunity) is in play. 

 

Either Thailand already has herd immunity due to earlier exposure to Covid-19 in Nov / Dec of 2019 at a time where an absence in attention meant the reported increases in viral pneumonia were simply reported without the current degree of attention or associated hysteria.

 

Or, an outbreak in Thailand pends and is inevitable regardless of the actions, lockdowns, isolation etc. All that Thailand can do is 'smooth the curve’ when that happens utlising current measures along with further lockdowns when the increases do start to spike. 

 

 

 

 

It is not a second wave in the US just a continued first wave which, as one would expect in such a large country, features geographic progression with states previously spared now seeing cases. And both deaths and hospitalizations continue to rise there. Also need to factor in the prwventuve measures taken.

 

There are outbreaks and then there are outbreaks.  Thailand's outbreak dates back to last winter or early spring and has not totally stopped just dipped to a low level of transmission.

 

Some settings are much more conducive to rapid spread than others. Specifically settings with high population density and where people are exposed to crowded indoor events/conditions. In such places it takes draconian measutes to slow the pace of spread to a mabafeable level.

 

Other settings are much less conducive  and with just  minimal measures in place aren't likely to see the sort of dramatic exponential rise that occurs elsewhere.  I belueve rhis is the case wirh much of rural Thailand.

 

I think people have the misimpression rhat when COVID is present it is somehow throughout the atmosphere, and only people with dome sort of immunity will fail to get it. This is not at all the case. The virus is infectious but does need certain conditions to soread effectively and some very specific conditiobs to spread really fast. 

 

A better analogy would be a lit match tossed from a car window onto a dry field. It may go out without igniting anything. It may start a small fire that fizzles out.Or the whole place may erupt. Depends on many factors: the amount of kindling in rhe exact spot where the match lands, how dry it is, the amount and dirwction of the wind etc.  When it burns just a small area and dies out (often the case( this does not mean the rest of the field has immunity to fire. Another match tossed at a later time and the parts that did not burn the first time, well may.

[Fex Bluse]

2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Colds will continue of course as they have done throughout history.  It's safe to assume that these people just have any one of a number of different types of viruses that we collectively call 'a cold'.  

 

It does rather highlight the futility of masks in confined areas in my opinion.

 

But actually the cure to covid19 could be other competing viruses, and they also boost the immune system with general antibodies.

Agree with this. Covid is actually from the same family of viruses that the common cold is caused by, actually. But, that aside, I think masks, even in confined areas, is still useful. There have been studies about keeping the 'innoculum' low. It means that exposure to more virus is worse than exposure to some virus. It's not like some things, like HIV, where if you are exposed to any, you are done. Less is better, and masks help. 

[richard_smith237]

19 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

It is not a second wave in the US just a continued first wave which, as one would expect in such a large country, features geographic progression with states previously spared now seeing cases. And both deaths and hospitalizations continue to rise there. Also need to factor in the prwventuve measures taken.

 

 

As I wrote: Further increases in Covid-19 cases (what some call a second wave) i.e. some are calling this a second wave (in the US), but I don’t believe so and agree with your comment that the USA stats simply show further / continued spread across the USA (or a significant increase in testing). 

 

More from the US angle, Sheryl - While the number of new daily cases increases, the number of new daily deaths is not. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

My point here is that while the cases in the US have been continuing to increase, and the daily new cases in the US have also been continuing to increase, the daily deaths does not increase with the same proportion, rather the daily deaths is infact lower than in April when daily cases were lower.  This could indicate some form of immunity.

 

The statistics could also simply indicate that far more asymptomatic people are being tested while virus itself is becoming less prevalent than in April.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by richard_smith237

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Colds will continue of course as they have done throughout history.  It's safe to assume that these people just have any one of a number of different types of viruses that we collectively call 'a cold'.  

 

It does rather highlight the futility of masks in confined areas in my opinion.

 

But actually the cure to covid19 could be other competing viruses, and they also boost the immune system with general antibodies.

Agree with this. Covid is actually from the same family of viruses that the common cold is caused by, actually. But, that aside, I think masks, even in confined areas, is still useful. There have been studies about keeping the 'innoculum' low. It means that exposure to more virus is worse than exposure to some virus. It's not like some things, like HIV, where if you are exposed to any, you are done. Less is better, and masks help. 

Partially - about ±15% of common colds are Caused by 4 Corona viruses (2 Alpha and 2 Beta Corona viruses), other common cold viruses include Rhinoviruses, Picornavirus, also influenza and others, commonly in combination. 

 

I agree with ‘intelligent’ mask wear... i.e. Public transport, busy indoor areas etc... but not at the cost of continued use of other more effective measures such as regular hand washing and sanitisation. 

Also reuse of the cloth masks is awful, people are not washing their masks for weeks !... 

Use of disposable masks is the most effected, if these are used intelligently and disposed of in bins after an hour or two of use. 

And yes, masks ‘can’ help reduce the potential viral load in an environment of potential exposure, especially if the carrier is wearing a mask.

 

 

[chainarong]

Well you haven't got rid of Covid 19  have U

[Sheryl]

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

My point here is that while the cases in the US have been continuing to increase, and the daily new cases in the US have also been continuing to increase, the daily deaths does not increase with the same proportion, rather the daily deaths is infact lower than in April when daily cases were lower.  This could indicate some form of immunity.

 

The statistics could also simply indicate that far more asymptomatic people are being tested while virus itself is becoming less prevalent than in April.

 

 

There are a number of other factors, most important being (1) substantial improvements in treatment (very little was known back in April and severe COVID is now managed quite differently)  and (2) differences in the demographic getting the virus, with a shift towards younger people (likely due to continued strong precautions in care homes and generally more protective measures taken by older people vs young people).

 

And yes, increased testing is bound to capture more mild cases. In addition, testing in the US was extremely limited in March-April.  In the worst hit areas like New York even symptomatic people were often not tested and in fact announcements were made telling people not to come to the hospital unless having serious trouble breathing (because the health system was so badly overrun). It is a given that the vast majority of cases in NY in March - May were undiagnosed and that includes many  of the deaths. Which is why excess deaths in that period yield almost double the number of reported COVID deaths. This all needs to be taken into account when comparing current data to data from that chaotic period. You are comparing data that is fairly complete to data known to be a severe undercount, especially as regards number of cases (antibody testing suggests by a ten fold factor).

 

"Some form of immunity" is the least likely explanation for the lower number of recorded COVID  deaths relative to confirmed COVID cases. Especially given the obvious causes mentioned above. Immunity would not  be expected to  manifest as a continued rise in cases. And there is no reason to expect it to exist, especially since most of the new cases are happening in states that did nto previously have much COVID.

[UbonEagle]

While I think the virus is certainly no out of control in LOS, these bearuocratic morons have helped contribute to this mass hysteria in the community about the virus by these ridiculous claims of zero cases !