Expat exodus under way?

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, madmen said:

Like I said it's for non pensioners only but you make some good points. Indeed the medical system here is outstanding and simple Check up for me has brought up a whole host of problems and getting them all treated through the gold coast hospital which is public but 5 star service all for free. 

 

Melbourne is the only place in full lockdown but rest of oz is non mask waering normal or as close to as possible. 

The reason they are not sending evacuation flights is because of there daily cap. Same as Thailand, they can handle only so many in the system at once. And a nice surprise awaits them now with a $2500 hotel charge! Most are avoiding going home unless it's absolutely necessary 

The only problem with the public hospital system in Australia is the wait times for some surgeries, sounds like you have dodged that bullet.

My private health insurer has been excellent, suspending my membership until I elect to come back. Which might not be for 2 or 3 years.

Trust your health problems are getting resolved. Similar to me, 5 or 6 different things and the medicos assure me none of them will kill me, just be a nuisance.

[lanng khao]

17 minutes ago, madmen said:

Methalated spirits, bunnings 70 baht everywhere. Doubt it could taste worse than black cock whisky 

Its an aquired taste, my ex Mrs was always telling me how much she loved the black cock.. 

[LiveKiss]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

It's called supply and demand. It is survival of the fittest. Those who survive the market shakeout will prosper over time.

 

Instead of opting for herd immunity (survival of the healthiest/fittest), we opted for lockdowns and a controlled demolition of the economy, which will lead to the survival of the richest/fittest.

Mind over matter, until <deleted> hits the fan..
 

[KarenBravo]

1 hour ago, LiveKiss said:

Instead of opting for herd immunity (survival of the healthiest/fittest), we opted for lockdowns and a controlled demolition of the economy, which will lead to the survival of the richest/fittest.

Mind over matter, until <deleted> hits the fan..
 

Herd immunity. Lets have a closer look with Thailand as the subject.

To obtain herd immunity, a minimum of 70% of the population must catch and survive Covid19. That is a minimum. For some viruses you need 90% of the population to be immune.

Let's take the lower figure of 70%.

Thailand has a population of just under 70 million. Therefore, to achieve herd immunity, 49 million must become infected. If the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2%, then, nearly one million people will die. You think that's acceptable?

There are already signs that re-infection is happening and that the virus is already mutating into different strains.

This does not bode well for vaccines and pushes so called herd immunity into irrelevance.

Sweden tried the idea and failed.

[DouglasTsui]

13 hours ago, hansgruber said:

He posted the source. Try reading the thread and you'll find it. 

The sacarsm plays out so evidently.Cant you tell my Learned friend with the suit. 

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

Herd immunity. Lets have a closer look with Thailand as the subject.

To obtain herd immunity, a minimum of 70% of the population must catch and survive Covid19. That is a minimum. For some viruses you need 90% of the population to be immune.

Let's take the lower figure of 70%.

Thailand has a population of just under 70 million. Therefore, to achieve herd immunity, 49 million must become infected. If the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2%, then, nearly one million people will die. You think that's acceptable?

There are already signs that re-infection is happening and that the virus is already mutating into different strains.

This does not bode well for vaccines and pushes so called herd immunity into irrelevance.

Sweden tried the idea and failed.

There is a hypothesis Thailand already has herd immunity, as it may have been infected by a much milder strain of the virus. Although the absence of testing for antibodies prevents verification.

Thailand had around 12 million Chinese tourists prior to the borders being closed. Then there was the exodus from Bangkok by people who lost their jobs, on crowded buses to their villages. Ideal conditions for virus dissemination. The social media would be erupting like a volcano if people started dying like flies in the villages.

Who knows? All I know is I feel safer here.

[TheFreqFlyer]

On 9/25/2020 at 1:26 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Not an exodus, but a constant trickle towards the exit door. Numbers for September will be out in a couple of weeks.

All in all Thailand have a net loss of 21,762 foreigners in August 2020 and oddly enough also lost 794 Thai.

 

Myanmar -10,188

Laos -4,201

Chinese -2,453

Russians -1,416

British -605

French -503

Germans -453

Philippines -256

Vietnamese -202

Ukrainians -200

Indian -185

Italian -168

Swedish -121

Swiss -117

Canadians -109

Pakistani -88

Malaysian -68

Dutch -64

Belgian -62

Spanish -47

Norwegian -43

 

A few nationalities have actually managed to enter in increasing numbers.

Cambodian +328

South Korean +303

American +209

Taiwanese +63

Australian +44

 

Source here.

No surprises there. Most were stuck tourists wanting to get home anyway. 

[KarenBravo]

14 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

There is a hypothesis Thailand already has herd immunity, as it may have been infected by a much milder strain of the virus. Although the absence of testing for antibodies prevents verification.

Thailand had around 12 million Chinese tourists prior to the borders being closed. Then there was the exodus from Bangkok by people who lost their jobs, on crowded buses to their villages. Ideal conditions for virus dissemination. The social media would be erupting like a volcano if people started dying like flies in the villages.

Who knows? All I know is I feel safer here.

Either that, or the figures have been falsified.

Which one do you think is more likely?

[rott]

On 9/25/2020 at 4:38 PM, from the home of CC said:

worked 3 years month in month out in a neighboring country but always obtained a re entry permit for my extension based on marriage to a Thai national - to each their own but I'm happy I did it the way I did...

If you'd been out of the country when the borders closed would it have let you back in? 

Answering my own question, no but you would be in by now possibly. 

[Lacessit]

41 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Either that, or the figures have been falsified.

Which one do you think is more likely?

 I don't think the authorities would get away with falsifying death and infection rates in a country where even the poorest rural Thai seems to have enough money for a smartphone. IMO Thais are the most socially connected people on the planet. Facebook must have looked like manna from heaven.

[from the home of CC]

54 minutes ago, rott said:

If you'd been out of the country when the borders closed would it have let you back in? 

Answering my own question, no but you would be in by now possibly. 

No, I would of had to join the line with everyone else. Thing is I would of quit the job prior to the border closures (the writing was plainly on the wall just by the number of flight cancellations), though not everyone has these options to make that choice..

[TheFreqFlyer]

Same with Singapore and probably countries all over the world. There was a recent article stating that Singapore has lost at least 2% of it's foreign resident population as a result of this pandemic situation. Might not sound like much but with continued restrictions this could easily increase exponentially. 

[TheFreqFlyer]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

 I don't think the authorities would get away with falsifying death and infection rates in a country where even the poorest rural Thai seems to have enough money for a smartphone. IMO Thais are the most socially connected people on the planet. Facebook must have looked like manna from heaven.

So? That means nothing. Most info being shared on Facebook is either false or propaganda anyway. Governments lie all the time and it's pretty easy for them to get away it. And no, I don't believe the statistics have been "falsified" per se, but there are so many things about this "pandemic" which make no sense anyway.

 

Like Laos having just 23 cases, most people not wearing face masks and sharing a porous border with Thailand and Vietnam, both countries with many times more cases (Vietnam about 50 times more and Thailand 150 times more) and in both countries face masks are ubiquitous, yet they've performed far more poorly than largely mask-less Laos. And before someone talks about "population density" well...Vientiane would ranked as the 3rd most populous Thai city if it were located in Thailand. It's almost as big as Chiang Mai, which, incidentally, has recorded very few cases either. So that hypothesis has been debunked. 

 

Ditto for Cambodia, with just 275 cases and only one active case. 

[LomSak27]

Don't know if this guy is going to make that exodus.

 

 

[trucking]

10 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The border hoppers and their basic living conditions will not be missed financially. The border hoppers who worked the boiler rooms won't be missed. The vast majority of people forced to leave should not have been in Thailand because they could not meet the financial conditions.

 

Complete and utter sanctimonious garbage. Ever heard of the term

' profiling '

 

You assume way too much .

 

You should leave. Thailand doesn't need anymore patronising Ex pats like you..

[LiveKiss]

21 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

Therefore, to achieve herd immunity, 49 million must become infected. If the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2%, then, nearly one million people will die. You think that's acceptable?

A million people will die only in your head and in those who make/believe the impossible statistics that we’ve been fed since January.

What is unacceptable is the level of lying and deceit by politicians and experts, who have dragged a majority of the population with them, by making them full blown hypochondriacs!

[lopburi3]

17 minutes ago, LiveKiss said:

A million people will die only in your head and in those who make/believe the impossible statistics that we’ve been fed since January.

What is unacceptable is the level of lying and deceit by politicians and experts, who have dragged a majority of the population with them, by making them full blown hypochondriacs!

Actually about one million have already died.  Yes many of these were sick but without the Covid-19 they would likely not have died this year. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

[LeungKen]

1 hour ago, LiveKiss said:

A million people will die only in your head and in those who make/believe the impossible statistics that we’ve been fed since January.

What is unacceptable is the level of lying and deceit by politicians and experts, who have dragged a majority of the population with them, by making them full blown hypochondriacs!

 

According to the latest figures by the W.H.O. the current figure for the number of deaths is 985,823.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

[nemo38]

On 9/27/2020 at 1:12 PM, lopburi3 said:

Actually about one million have already died.  Yes many of these were sick but without the Covid-19 they would likely not have died this year. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

 

Denying people health service at hospitals during Covid, while nurses make TicTok videos, has killed many people who didn't need to die. 

 

https://www.rt.com/uk/501767-uk-excess-deaths-lockdown-coronavirus-heart/

 

Quote

Thousands of Britons who suffer heart attacks and strokes are dying at home instead of seeking medical treatment, a new study has found, as new government figures show 75,000 are projected to die as a result of lockdown measures.

 

There will be millions more deaths of despair due to the economic fallout, and those won't be people at the end of their lives who would probably have died of the flu anyway.

 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-robson-not-everyone-who-dies-of-the-pandemic-will-die-of-covid-19

 

Quote

It doesn’t matter that not one death certificate will mention the quarantine. The excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, substance abuse, suicide, etc., will be just as tragic, and as directly caused by lost jobs, bankruptcies and broken dreams, as the pandemic deaths from respiratory failure. And they will mount and mount. That curve is not flattening.

 

The UN and other agencies are predicting mass death from hunger due to the lockdown

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html

 

Quote

The world is facing multiple famines of “biblical proportions” in just a matter of months, the UN has said, warning that the coronavirus pandemic will push an additional 130 million people to the brink of starvation.

Famines could take hold in “about three dozen countries” in a worst-case scenario, the executive director of the World Food Programme (WFP) said in a stark address on Tuesday. Ten of those countries already have more than 1 million people on the verge of starvation, he said.

 

[stuarty]

3 hours ago, nemo38 said:

 

Denying people health service at hospitals during Covid, while nurses make TicTok videos, has killed many people who didn't need to die. 

 

https://www.rt.com/uk/501767-uk-excess-deaths-lockdown-coronavirus-heart/

 

 

There will be millions more deaths of despair due to the economic fallout, and those won't be people at the end of their lives who would probably have died of the flu anyway.

 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-robson-not-everyone-who-dies-of-the-pandemic-will-die-of-covid-19

 

 

The UN and other agencies are predicting mass death from hunger due to the lockdown

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html

 

 

Says you

 

[kingdong]

On 9/25/2020 at 12:42 PM, Lacessit said:

I'm just wondering how many boozers go on 40 km bike rides.

quiteb a few.

[stuarty]

38 minutes ago, kingdong said:

quiteb a few.

Including you by the sound of it  Cheers.

[sekmet]

On 9/25/2020 at 12:32 AM, Destiny1990 said:

Its a very good time to buy that secondhand expat car and or washing machine there are adds everywhere. 

Have rents come down?

[KarenBravo]

26 minutes ago, sekmet said:

Have rents come down?

Yes, both private houses and commercial properties, though, not all.

The understanding is that the rents will go back to what they were once tourists return.

[Destiny1990]

48 minutes ago, sekmet said:

Have rents come down?

Of course they have and are still dropping why you even asking Me this. Nearly all foreigners have left and here u are asking me if the rents have dropped ????????

[ukrules]

I heard of someone who dropped the sell price of their house by 2 million baht, that's nearly down to what it might have been worth before COVID struck.

 

Had they done this 18 months ago it might have sold but would still be a bit overpriced in my opinion, now there's no chance they will sell it.