opening thailand. does anyone have optimism for this year?

[CygnusX1]

17 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

The 2 year cycle is based on the time it took for the much deadlier Spanish Flu to genetically mutate and and dissipate into lesser flu varieties (1918 - 1920).

Difference between the 1918 flu and the China virus is that back in 1918 the incredibly sensitive and specific PCR test didn’t exist, so that once flu virus infections reached low levels, the pandemic was over. The PCR test will continue to find positive cases of the China virus for many years, maintaining the hysteria. At the beginning of the insanity I was predicting quarantine free travel by 2023, but I now feel that’s far too optimistic.

[Letseng]

I was optimistic till I read Barrow's tweets yesterday re Thai Elite hick up.  STV has been "delayed" indef. Hope I will get at my belongings and bank a/c at least next year. 

[khunPer]

23 hours ago, paulikens said:

I'm just wondering is there anyone on here still believing that thailand will open up fully this year?

Not I, so I'm unfortunately not "anyone".

 

Might begin to reopen for more ordinary-like tourism next year, but probably from low risk zones only. However, predicting is always difficult, especially about the future, even more difficult in amazing Thailand...

[The Theory]

23 hours ago, paulikens said:

but i think they have written it off now

At this moment at least the country is operating normally without Foreign tourist income. One wrong move will cause 2nd wave. Then all will be over, no more foreign or local tourists and all type of businesses will go down very hard, much harder than the 1st wave. No wonder they hesitate to open the borders. They already know what it will look like.

Unfortunately it shall take even longer for those with non-o extensions who are desperately waiting to get in.  
 

Edited October 8, 2020 by The Theory

[ronaldo0]

End of November first fortnight in December I think they will change the entry requirements to minimum fuss and less requirements for certain groups like people with retirement visas , family etc . But for the average tourist it will still require some hoop jumping , tests ,reduced quarantine and insurance. 
If they don’t start doing something about it by end of December they can forget tourism until May / June at least and that won’t amount to much if the exchange rate stays the same !

[paulikens]

4 hours ago, khunPer said:

Not I, so I'm unfortunately not "anyone".

 

Might begin to reopen for more ordinary-like tourism next year, but probably from low risk zones only. However, predicting is always difficult, especially about the future, even more difficult in amazing Thailand...

@khunPer yes you're right it is hard to predict but there seems to be a lot of people on here that claimed they predicted all this madness in march, isnt that so @Mark Evans !!

[paulikens]

4 hours ago, ronaldo0 said:

End of November first fortnight in December I think they will change the entry requirements to minimum fuss and less requirements for certain groups like people with retirement visas , family etc . But for the average tourist it will still require some hoop jumping , tests ,reduced quarantine and insurance. 
If they don’t start doing something about it by end of December they can forget tourism until May / June at least and that won’t amount to much if the exchange rate stays the same !

@ronaldo0 finally someone with a bit of optimism???? hope ya right but im doubting it by the day.

[paulikens]

4 hours ago, The Theory said:

At this moment at least the country is operating normally without Foreign tourist income. One wrong move will cause 2nd wave. Then all will be over, no more foreign or local tourists and all type of businesses will go down very hard, much harder than the 1st wave. No wonder they hesitate to open the borders. They already know what it will look like.

Unfortunately it shall take even longer for those with non-o extensions who are desperately waiting to get in.  
 

@The Theory 2nd ripple ya mean

[paulikens]

On 10/7/2020 at 3:15 PM, alianware said:

Don't worry, if they look at the Gov. Safetybox and it will be empty soon with the dollar, they will open it very quickly.

@alianware i think not. i think that this has shown they are willing to wave goodbye to tourism money this year.

[alianware]

4 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@alianware i think not. i think that this has shown they are willing to wave goodbye to tourism money this year.

They can't wave good bye. They have to pay the debt back with the dollars ☺

[olfu]

in 2020? to Thailand? Fantasy.

Japan claim they will be open in April of 2021--I can wait.

[ronaldo0]

38 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@ronaldo0 finally someone with a bit of optimism???? hope ya right but im doubting it by the day.

Fingers crossed and pray to the big fat man ! ????????????????????

[Don Chance]

Chinese vaccine coming very soon! They have already injected 100,000+ people and tested prisoner with live virus. Going to be cheap and best for you!

[sezze]

3 hours ago, olfu said:

in 2020? to Thailand? Fantasy.

Japan claim they will be open in April of 2021--I can wait.

Thats is most optimistic scenario , which i gave before also . If it is is Thailand or Japan , doesn't really matter . Only Japan is more honest and thinking more about something later then tomorrow . I can say that we will know in 4-6weeks if that timeframe is possible .

I do believe that unless it is very well under control , meaning nowhere high infection numbers or hospital beds , the regulations will stay really strong . So even if we can make it April , then i believe there will be some kind of quarantine and surely the insurance will stay . In the longer run , vaccination has worked good ,  then quarantine will be gone , and insurance will go to normal levels ( meaning standard travel insurance needed ) .

Going back to situation before covid 19 , if ever , i think will likely take 2-3 years more .

[joecoolfrog]

This year no chance !

They will have to open up by mid 2021 but who knows how many restrictions they will try to keep in place even then.

I wont even consider visiting until quarantine , fit to fly certificates and ' special ' visas and insurance are off the table , most tourists will concur.

[joecoolfrog]

8 hours ago, The Theory said:

At this moment at least the country is operating normally without Foreign tourist income. One wrong move will cause 2nd wave. Then all will be over, no more foreign or local tourists and all type of businesses will go down very hard, much harder than the 1st wave. No wonder they hesitate to open the borders. They already know what it will look like.

Unfortunately it shall take even longer for those with non-o extensions who are desperately waiting to get in.  
 

Define operating normally !

Widespread unemployment and business closures already and set to get far worse , is that normal ?

[Don Mega]

Hopefully not.

[steven100]

42 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Define operating normally !

Widespread unemployment and business closures already and set to get far worse , is that normal ?

then try another strategy .... don't rely solely on one income source ... look outside the box.

[Don Mega]

8 minutes ago, steven100 said:

then try another strategy .... don't rely solely on one income source ... look outside the box.

Ironically a lot of the post on these types of threads are from those that want to get back inside the box !!

[simon43]

Optimistically, I would think around 2023 or 2024, but I doubt if anyone will want to come anyway.  Forget Thailand and move on with your lives.  If you have family here, I'd suggest that they arrange to leave Thailand to join you elsewhere....

[Grumpy John]

As I keep saying "December" start of high season will be when reality comes crushing down on what is left of the tourist industry.

The hope they have now is the government will relent and allow tourists to come back with few restrictions so they can have some high season customers.  But from the look of it the government isn't going to do a backflip....yet! And even a moderate start up would take many weeks.  Planes need to be scheduled, staff need to be sourced, cheap tacky tourist tat needs to be sourced from china.  December is 6.5 weeks away.  A government backflip was needed at the start of September....

 

Forget 2020, and most of 2021.  If there is anything left to house and entertain the tourists aim for December 2021!

[Andycoops]

None whatsoever.

If the current visa situation continues, Elite holders being refused entry the so called STV, is so special you pay in advance and have so many hoops to jump through that there's no quarantee you will be approved.

As for polls saying that Thais don't want to open up, is a complete joke.

Just ask the families where I live who have been out of work since April.

They must be polling government employees who don't give a toss because they get paid come what may.

[paulikens]

10 hours ago, simon43 said:

Optimistically, I would think around 2023 or 2024, but I doubt if anyone will want to come anyway.  Forget Thailand and move on with your lives.  If you have family here, I'd suggest that they arrange to leave Thailand to join you elsewhere....

@simon43 jesus if that's you being optimistic i hate to think what you're like when you're pessimistic!!

[GinBoy2]

Well 2020 is a given write off.

 

So on to 2021. Well, and I'm excluding the China market, not sure how many Westerners coping with the economic turmoil of this will be thinking, 'Oooh I need travel 15 hours on a plane, wearing a mask' to Thailand.

 

Then you get to the vaccine question. Even if a vaccine becomes available early next year, how long do you think it takes to manufacture enough doses for millions of people, let alone deliver them?

 

We'll be lucky, and I hope I'm wrong, to see any return to some sort of normality before 2022 

[runamok27]

I have to admit I was one of the more optimistic folks when it came to predictions on when travel would resume and I thought the folks saying 2021, 2022, 2023 and even 2024 were nuts but they look spot on, well, except for maybe the 2024 folks. 2020 is gone, there is no way relatively normal travel will resume in 2020. I think 2021 is also gone for relatively normal travel as well. 2022 looks good though. Thailand is in a tough spot, very few cases and most likely not even close to herd immunity, if that's even possible. Widespread vaccination against Covid-19 in Thailand is at least a year away maybe longer. That's if a vaccine is approved and effective really soon. Flu vaccines are usually about 50% effective, so is this enough to allow relatively normal travel? I would think not. Maybe I'll be apologizing to those 2024 folks someday. Plus the current science seems to indicate that even folks who had the virus have very little or very short term protection against Covid-19 so I really don't see how a vaccine is going to help.

[fceligoj]

It's great to keep the slimy foreign tourists out!  Makes for an improved climate wherever one goes.

[nomad2019]

On 10/8/2020 at 2:38 AM, meechai said:

That is the truth of the matter & I just said so in another Thai news thread.

 

This whole Covid deal was the perfect strawman for a inept self proclaimed government

Folks forget but the Thai economy was sinking fast before covid hit providing the perfect cover

ok then but why is the baht still strong

I'm wondering when the but will collapse any ideas folks.  ??????????
 

[nomad2019]

On 10/8/2020 at 2:01 PM, ronaldo0 said:

End of November first fortnight in December I think they will change the entry requirements to minimum fuss and less requirements for certain groups like people with retirement visas , family etc . But for the average tourist it will still require some hoop jumping , tests ,reduced quarantine and insurance. 
If they don’t start doing something about it by end of December they can forget tourism until May / June at least and that won’t amount to much if the exchange rate stays the same !

even if the Thailand economy collapses foreigners still will not be allowed in IMO

[DDBKK]

I'm betting on high season 2021. Not a chance it's opening up to regular tourists this year. And what's the state of the tourist places going to be like by high season 2021? Definitely not as they were pre-covid. I'd imagine the big time operators with multiple businesses in the likes of cowboy, KSR/Rambuttri/Nana/Samui/Phuket etc will weather it ok but the smaller places? Very much doubt they will survive. 

 

But then again, isn't that one of the beauties of thailand? Businesses can crop up out of nowhere when they need to. 

 

Feel sorry for those who have lost their jobs/business. 

[alianware]

6 minutes ago, nomad2019 said:

even if the Thailand economy collapses foreigners still will not be allowed in IMO

they will open if they realize soon that the safety box is out of dollars !