Thailand in turmoil the Baht will plummet or not ????

[Chivas]

Some of the responses and answers are wrong in a most spectacular fashion to say the least lol

Beyond me how anyone can travel to another country and not know how the currencies are crunched to give the interbank rate

[maqui]

On 10/28/2020 at 5:48 PM, RichardColeman said:

If Biden wins I think the dollar will plummet - $ will not do good under far left Biden if he carries through all his policies.

You mean: The Great Orange Leader of the Free World should offer Master Class courses as his next career move: on "responsible fiscal management"?  Starting the afternoon of January 20: "Learn from the world´s best" https://www.masterclass.com/articles  ?

 

He´s collected quite a resume and should give lectures on the art of the deal: 

- the US trade deficit grew by 21%  between 2016 and 2019 during his trade wars 

- on Feb 11, US national debt eclipsed $22 trillion for the first time; since 2017, Trump had added $2 trillion of debt - even though the US economy was humming along during his 3 years office at the same rate as it had between 2012 and 2016

- 4 casino bankruptcies, 1 airline, 1 university, Trump steaks, vodka, and golf courses and hotels that ate up the 400M of income he had earned posing as a very stable biz genius in The Apprentice, with 400m of debt due over the next 3 years

 

Granted, deducting the 130k for Stormy Daniels as business expenses was a shrewd move few among us would have dared to make. Only the audacious win the girl, and then pay her afterwards out of the mergers & acquisitions budget.

 

 

[KhaoYai]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:38 PM, Dumbastheycome said:

The UK currency in a similar situation is and has been subsiding because there is no  basis to  claim stability on any  genuine premise. Brexit  introduced  it and  Covid-19 has accelerated  that by eliminating even viable identifiable destination of surviving  productivity.

The OP is asking about future likelihoods - not historical so I presume your answer is a prediction. Now, I am no currency dealer, I'm just a guy who changes pounds to baht regularly but Brexit happened over 4 years ago. I sat with my head in my hands watching the £ drop as the votes came in.  Just as we got used to circa 50 baht to the pound when the world wide recession hit and the dust settled, we've reluctantly got used circa 40 baht to the pound following the Brexit vote.

 

Not so long ago there were people on here (claiming to be knowledgeable) who confidently predicted the baht/£ would fall to the mid 20's - it never happened.  Since shortly after the Brexit fall, the rate has hovered around 40 (41 at the moment).

 

Granted, nothing seems to be able to depreciate the baht - most countries that have a coup find their currency is worth less than toilet paper - the baht seems to be like Trump - Teflon but economies all over the world are suffering from the effects of Covid 19 - not only the UK.  Thailand's economy is not in good shape and once again there is political turmoil in the country - what are the gounds for your apparent prediction of the £ falling further against the baht?

 

There may be some short term falls or gains when Britain finally goes it alone, trade deal or not but surely there are too many variables at the moment to make predictions with any sort of confidence? Apart from some possible short term fluctuations, I really can't see much changing for quite some time.

 

If I wanted to place a bet (not a big one), I would actually wager that the baht might start to fall.  The country is heavily reliant on tourism and unless they find a way of getting that back up and running, I think there could be further financial problems ahead.  There have been several crazy visa schemes they dreamt up to try and tempt tourists back but even if some of the latest ones work, they won't even begin to scratch the surface of the tourist industy's defecit - they just don't seem to get it......... people get a limited amount of holiday time, they ain't going to spend it in quarantine, they'll go elsewhere. The numbers that want/can stay longer are relatively low. 

 

Things ain't going to change anytime soon - expect major bankruptcies and closures if they don't get tourists back for the coming high season - hence my (small) bet - the one of a normal citizen not a currency dealer, is that the £/baht will actually rise a little - say 42-43.

Edited November 2, 2020 by KhaoYai

[soalbundy]

19 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    You have no idea about how Brexit wil effect the UK economy anyway, this thread isnt about Brexit 

My post wasn't about Brexit, I mentioned it as one of the reasons I think that the pound will fall, especially if Biden wins.

[StevieAus]

21 hours ago, gillap said:

Hmm...you guys don't think the baht is manipulated??? All Thai economics are very bleak at best and the baht remains solid! Ask the Fed if they manipulate to keep the dollar sustainable...!

Perhaps you could explain exactly how the Baht and the $US are manipulated.

I am still awaiting a response from other posters who have made similar comments.

[RubbaJohnny]

The Baht is in a manipulated float.

Like many others it needs US $ to fnance imports.

If Covid and loss of tourist income was soley Thailand then the baht might be in bigger trouble but it's global.

 

Western nations are spendg vaste sums to subsidise wages. furloughed business unlike here where the BoT is extremely prudent and conservative.

Sure there are internal non performing loans and there will be consolidation, bankruptcy and failures in the tourist aviation sectors.

 

However once travel restrictions/vaccine remove barriers to travel the attractions will resume.

 

As for Forex we don't need a crystal ball .

There is a futures market.

A whole industry teh forex "bookies'

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html

 

 

 

After US election result markets will price in a new President , same whatever UK deal or no deal in 2 months .

 

While some see all currencies going over the cliff that is not possible, inflation may hit all but Forex is a ratio so the mid maret rate always in balance.

 

IMHO US $ and sterling are short while CHF NOK long

 

 

[Henryford]

IMO the baht will not fall, maybe even rise. Compare the situation with Europe and the US. Europe in chaos likely hundreds of thousands will die, trillion of Euros printed, the same in the US. Thailand, crisis over, 59 dead, no debts. Which one looks stronger.

[Barnabe]

5 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

The Baht is in a manipulated float.

Like many others it needs US $ to fnance imports.

If Covid and loss of tourist income was soley Thailand then the baht might be in bigger trouble but it's global.

 

Western nations are spendg vaste sums to subsidise wages. furloughed business unlike here where the BoT is extremely prudent and conservative.

Sure there are internal non performing loans and there will be consolidation, bankruptcy and failures in the tourist aviation sectors.

 

However once travel restrictions/vaccine remove barriers to travel the attractions will resume.

 

As for Forex we don't need a crystal ball .

There is a futures market.

A whole industry teh forex "bookies'

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html

 

 

 

After US election result markets will price in a new President , same whatever UK deal or no deal in 2 months .

 

While some see all currencies going over the cliff that is not possible, inflation may hit all but Forex is a ratio so the mid maret rate always in balance.

 

IMHO US $ and sterling are short while CHF NOK long

 

 

 

Thanks for the forex link, I didn't even remember that.

 

Interesting to see that forex for 2025 and beyond are pricing in gains vs the dollar, and same same vs the euro. Same with the dollar, seems to slip vs the euro. In other words, dollar will weaken.

 

Not sure if I agree with that prospect.. but let's see.

[SomchaiCNX]

You only can predict that if you have connections with people in power. You tell your wife to pack suitcases full of Thai baht, fly to Hong Kong, change them to $ US at 25 baht to the $ and put them in a foreign bank. Than you just wait and change them back in to Thai baht. Happened in 98. Always  handy to pay bills in Dubai ????

 

[RubbaJohnny]

3 hours ago, Barnabe said:

 

Thanks for the forex link, I didn't even remember that.

 

Interesting to see that forex for 2025 and beyond are pricing in gains vs the dollar, and same same vs the euro. Same with the dollar, seems to slip vs the euro. In other words, dollar will weaken.

 

Not sure if I agree with that prospect.. but let's see.

The whole carriage trade is worked around this.

Luckily for LOS it is not in the major pairs of most traded currencies, so volatility is less speculative.

 

Most Popular Forex Pairs

• EUR/USD. The Euro to US Dollar currency pair is the single most widely-traded forex pair in the market and comprises the currencies of two of the world's biggest economies. ...
• USD/JPY. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen currency pair is the second most commonly traded pair after EUR/USD. ...
• GBP/USD. ...
• USD/CAD. ...
• AUD/USD.

For the punter there is less underlying knowledge than in commodoties , equities or bonds, the spreads mean as usual its generally unprofitable for low stakes players .

 

It is by far the largest market even bigger than gold, shares etc

 

"The foreign exchange or forex market is the largest financial market in the world – larger even than the stock market, with a daily volume of $6.6 trillion, according to the 2019 Triennial Central Bank Survey of FX and OTC derivatives markets.1The digital site where one currency is exchanged for another, the forex market has a lot of unique attributes that may come as a surprise for new traders." 

 

Investopedia

 

 

[Barnabe]

It’s a very interesting market but let’s be honest, it’s much more casino-y than equities, bonds or even commodities.

[Chivas]

13 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

The OP is asking about future likelihoods - not historical so I presume your answer is a prediction. Now, I am no currency dealer, I'm just a guy who changes pounds to baht regularly but Brexit happened over 4 years ago. I sat with my head in my hands watching the £ drop as the votes came in.  Just as we got used to circa 50 baht to the pound when the world wide recession hit and the dust settled, we've reluctantly got used circa 40 baht to the pound following the Brexit vote.

 

Not so long ago there were people on here (claiming to be knowledgeable) who confidently predicted the baht/£ would fall to the mid 20's - it never happened.  Since shortly after the Brexit fall, the rate has hovered around 40 (41 at the moment).

 

Granted, nothing seems to be able to depreciate the baht - most countries that have a coup find their currency is worth less than toilet paper - the baht seems to be like Trump - Teflon but economies all over the world are suffering from the effects of Covid 19 - not only the UK.  Thailand's economy is not in good shape and once again there is political turmoil in the country - what are the gounds for your apparent prediction of the £ falling further against the baht?

 

There may be some short term falls or gains when Britain finally goes it alone, trade deal or not but surely there are too many variables at the moment to make predictions with any sort of confidence? Apart from some possible short term fluctuations, I really can't see much changing for quite some time.

 

If I wanted to place a bet (not a big one), I would actually wager that the baht might start to fall.  The country is heavily reliant on tourism and unless they find a way of getting that back up and running, I think there could be further financial problems ahead.  There have been several crazy visa schemes they dreamt up to try and tempt tourists back but even if some of the latest ones work, they won't even begin to scratch the surface of the tourist industy's defecit - they just don't seem to get it......... people get a limited amount of holiday time, they ain't going to spend it in quarantine, they'll go elsewhere. The numbers that want/can stay longer are relatively low. 

 

Things ain't going to change anytime soon - expect major bankruptcies and closures if they don't get tourists back for the coming high season - hence my (small) bet - the one of a normal citizen not a currency dealer, is that the £/baht will actually rise a little - say 42-43.

 

Another one who thinks there is a "direct" exchange rate between Sterling and the Baht

Chap the bottom line is a number crunch of two currency pairings namely Sterling/Dollar multipled by Dollar/Baht

Theres no little guy in a currency office saying we'll give the good old Brits a 1 baht rise today or VV !!

 

Movement in either of those pairings effects the bottom line

[Dumbastheycome]

12 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

The OP is asking about future likelihoods - not historical so I presume your answer is a prediction. Now, I am no currency dealer, I'm just a guy who changes pounds to baht regularly but Brexit happened over 4 years ago. I sat with my head in my hands watching the £ drop as the votes came in.  Just as we got used to circa 50 baht to the pound when the world wide recession hit and the dust settled, we've reluctantly got used circa 40 baht to the pound following the Brexit vote.

 

Not so long ago there were people on here (claiming to be knowledgeable) who confidently predicted the baht/£ would fall to the mid 20's - it never happened.  Since shortly after the Brexit fall, the rate has hovered around 40 (41 at the moment).

 

Granted, nothing seems to be able to depreciate the baht - most countries that have a coup find their currency is worth less than toilet paper - the baht seems to be like Trump - Teflon but economies all over the world are suffering from the effects of Covid 19 - not only the UK.  Thailand's economy is not in good shape and once again there is political turmoil in the country - what are the gounds for your apparent prediction of the £ falling further against the baht?

 

There may be some short term falls or gains when Britain finally goes it alone, trade deal or not but surely there are too many variables at the moment to make predictions with any sort of confidence? Apart from some possible short term fluctuations, I really can't see much changing for quite some time.

 

If I wanted to place a bet (not a big one), I would actually wager that the baht might start to fall.  The country is heavily reliant on tourism and unless they find a way of getting that back up and running, I think there could be further financial problems ahead.  There have been several crazy visa schemes they dreamt up to try and tempt tourists back but even if some of the latest ones work, they won't even begin to scratch the surface of the tourist industy's defecit - they just don't seem to get it......... people get a limited amount of holiday time, they ain't going to spend it in quarantine, they'll go elsewhere. The numbers that want/can stay longer are relatively low. 

 

Things ain't going to change anytime soon - expect major bankruptcies and closures if they don't get tourists back for the coming high season - hence my (small) bet - the one of a normal citizen not a currency dealer, is that the £/baht will actually rise a little - say 42-43.

Ok.  IMO I genuinely appreciate the question and the detail of your  perspective.

Firstly I would deny I propose any "prediction" as such  but rather a speculative  expectation based on events ongoing primarily the  Covid-19 pandemic impact.

I would initially  refer you to the economic global exchange of currencies via tourism as a pertinent factor of that which  involves  Thailand  but  not in exclusion. In Thailand  it is currently accepted the negative impact is  near 20%. The UK ? 11% ! Neither is insignificant until if you  consider average income versus living costs and  cultural  survival capacity in distinctly different environmental situations.

Due to the  proliferate adoption of the concept of  disposable income that has progressively been disguised in the form of  credit which has  not only  enabled but  advanced public  debt into arenas  such as  mass tourism which naturally enough given the  naivety of the general public taking for  granted personal serviceability in the assumption of peace and tranquility in perpetual continuation of globalized accords, controls, etc with cant  regard to any  disturbances to the status quo of  the system that was introduced  since  around  1946  and  confirmed in the  70's .

To that end the  dissolution of the USSR's internal system and it's adoption into the  network of what in intent became a  global Corporate system with an almost  equivalent ideology has now been  seriously disturbed  by a component  that has the potential to culminate in one of two  outcomes.

In reference to the UK becoming an associate  member of the EU having  experimented in and via political decisions of the EC. Memory of that  seems to have been buried despite it being the  initial  vestiges  of  abandonment of  the  lauded  " Commonwealth" .

A conditional aspect of the UK  becoming a member of the EU  was a separation of the currency  which permitted the UK  to retain it's new -ly  " Pound".

The  Euro  was a poor cousin to that  and the $US and  many proclaimed the rapid  demise of the  Euro.

Overall the Euro has  defied  and in some instances of  preferred exchange  has been adopted in preference. 

Not initially  but  incrementally the UK  Pound  has devolved in attraction by  comparison.

The  saga of the  Brexit  impact initially and  ongoing to this day  has undeniably  demonstrated  no reason to seek it as a  reserve currency. Coupled  with  that is the  impact of the pandemic which although  not in isolation of  economic destruction in the  global sense  has not positioned it well at least  initially  or  if at all in the future of the resurection of global  economic recovery. 

By contrast  Asian economies which had been  rising rapidly  under the auspices of mutual greed encompassed in the  Corporate  model have retained the advantages of the infrastructure gifted to them by  virtue of  the capitalist  Corporate model. That  despite the pandemic that has  stricken the dependent suposed

benefactor superior nations  with  declining population growth and distributable  wealth.

The "West" has inflicted/applied  an economic platform that has left itself open to an implosion and degradation that will possibly  relegate itself to the same or less than the redeveloping "East" that it  was  callously  deriving it's false sense superiority .

Unreservedly  IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dumbastheycome]

1 minute ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Ok.  IMO I genuinely appreciate the question and the detail of your  perspective.

Firstly I would deny I propose any "prediction" as such  but rather a speculative  expectation based on events ongoing primarily the  Covid-19 pandemic impact.

I would initially  refer you to the economic global exchange of currencies via tourism as a pertinent factor of that which  involves  Thailand  but  not in exclusion. In Thailand  it is currently accepted the negative impact is  near 20%. The UK ? 11% ! Neither is insignificant until if you  consider average income versus living costs and  cultural  survival capacity in distinctly different environmental situations.

Due to the  proliferate adoption of the concept of  disposable income that has progressively been disguised in the form of  credit which has  not only  enabled but  advanced public  debt into arenas  such as  mass tourism which naturally enough given the  naivety of the general public taking for  granted personal serviceability in the assumption of peace and tranquility in perpetual continuation of globalized accords, controls, etc with scant  regard to any  disturbances to the status quo of  the system that was introduced  since  around  1946  and  confirmed in the  70's .

To that end the  dissolution of the USSR's internal system and it's adoption into the  network of what in intent became a  global Corporate system with an almost  equivalent ideology has now been  seriously disturbed  by a component  that has the potential to culminate in one of two  outcomes.

In reference to the UK becoming an associate  member of the EU having  experimented in and via political decisions of the EC. Memory of that  seems to have been buried despite it being the  initial  vestiges  of  abandonment of  the  lauded  " Commonwealth" .

A conditional aspect of the UK  becoming a member of the EU  was a separation of the currency  which permitted the UK  to retain it's new -ly  " Pound".

The  Euro  was a poor cousin to that  and the $US and  many proclaimed the rapid  demise of the  Euro.

Overall the Euro has  defied  and in some instances of  preferred exchange  has been adopted in preference. 

Not initially  but  incrementally the UK  Pound  has devolved in attraction by  comparison.

The  saga of the  Brexit  impact initially and  ongoing to this day  has undeniably  demonstrated  no reason to seek it as a  reserve currency. Coupled  with  that is the  impact of the pandemic which although  not in isolation of  economic destruction in the  global sense  has not positioned it well at least  initially  or  if at all in the future of the resurection of global  economic recovery. 

By contrast  Asian economies which had been  rising rapidly  under the auspices of mutual greed encompassed in the  Corporate  model have retained the advantages of the infrastructure gifted to them by  virtue of  the capitalist  Corporate model. That  despite the pandemic that has  stricken the dependent suposed

benefactor superior nations  with  declining population growth and distributable  wealth.

The "West" has inflicted/applied  an economic platform that has left itself open to an implosion and degradation that will possibly  relegate itself to the same or less than the redeveloping "East" that it  was  callously  deriving it's false sense superiority .

Unreservedly  IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bartender100]

On 11/1/2020 at 7:02 AM, KarenBravo said:

Pound will only get weaker at the sight of Kent turned into a giant truck park and shortages in the shops become obvious. IMHO

 

Is that why Aldi and Lidel can't open supermarkets quick enough in the UK?

[Dan747]

The Baht has not gone anywhere it should in the last several years. The Bank of Thailand is manipulating the behavior of the Baht and it will remain "STRONG!!"        ????

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Ok.  IMO I genuinely appreciate the question and the detail of your  perspective.

Firstly I would deny I propose any "prediction" as such  but rather a speculative  expectation based on events ongoing primarily the  Covid-19 pandemic impact.........................................................

Thanks for the detailed reply and my apologies for the fact that much of it went straight over my head.

 

Let's revisit this in 12 months, I really can't see any sustained drop in the value of the pound against the baht - knee jerk reactions to good or bad news maybe but nothing lasting.

 

Not aimed at you but to  repeat what I said earlier - not that long ago, some of the 'experts' on here gloatingly forecast the pound would be down into the 20's by now yet its still around 40.

 

I would not discount the effects of the dying tourist industry in Thailand - I think the domino effect of that is under-estimated.  The hotels don't buy food from the markets, the market trader doesn't buy a new van, the garage lays staff off because of a reduction in sales.  The farmer doesn't sell his produce to the markets so doesn't buy seed and fertliser for the next crop. The farm supplier postpones the building of their new warehouse so the builder's out of work................................and on and on.

 

I have a friend that works for a major car manufacturer on the eastern seaboard - he tells me that car sales are down and his company are considering layoffs - no idea what the cause of that is but it seems clear that the Thai economy is not doing well.

[KhaoYai]

5 hours ago, Chivas said:

 

Another one who thinks there is a "direct" exchange rate between Sterling and the Baht

Chap the bottom line is a number crunch of two currency pairings namely Sterling/Dollar multipled by Dollar/Baht

Theres no little guy in a currency office saying we'll give the good old Brits a 1 baht rise today or VV !!

 

Movement in either of those pairings effects the bottom line

I don't think anything of the sort, I just deal with real world stuff.  I was getting around 40 baht to the pound in late 2016. I'm still getting that at the moment despite what the 'TV Experts' predicted and I'm confident I'll be getting the same next year.

 

I'm fully aware that there's no direct linkage between the pound and the baht but real world - the pound fell heavily against most if not all currencies following the Brexit vote in 2016. The only point of interest for me in that was the £/baht.

 

From my limited knowledge I understand that the baht owes much of its current relative strength because Thailand is seen as a 'safe haven' for investors, traders etc.  The economy is falling and the indictators are that it will fall further. That, coupled with the political situation must surely begin to make Thailand less of a 'safe haven'. Surely at that point the baht will finally start to fall.

 

Real world, if that happens, I expect the pound to buy more baht.

Edited November 2, 2020 by KhaoYai

[Chivas]

8 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

 

 

I'm fully aware that there's no direct linkage between the pound and the baht but real world - the pound fell heavily against most if not all currencies following the Brexit vote in 2016. The only point of interest for me in that was the £/baht.

 

 

 

The only point of interest in your case then is Sterling/Dollar and Dollar/Baht

All the rest is just noise

 

 

[soalbundy]

15 hours ago, bartender100 said:

 

Is that why Aldi and Lidel can't open supermarkets quick enough in the UK?

three things you can always make money from food, sex and drugs.

[KhaoYai]

On 11/1/2020 at 5:37 PM, Chivas said:

Some of the responses and answers are wrong in a most spectacular fashion to say the least lol

Beyond me how anyone can travel to another country and not know how the currencies are crunched to give the interbank rate

?????

Do you think the average tourist wants to know why the exchange rate for their destination is where it is?

[Leaver]

On 11/3/2020 at 1:48 AM, KhaoYai said:

I would not discount the effects of the dying tourist industry in Thailand - I think the domino effect of that is under-estimated.  The hotels don't buy food from the markets, the market trader doesn't buy a new van, the garage lays staff off because of a reduction in sales.  The farmer doesn't sell his produce to the markets so doesn't buy seed and fertliser for the next crop. The farm supplier postpones the building of their new warehouse so the builder's out of work................................and on and on.

I agree.

 

Many just see a decimated tourism and hospitality industry, but they do not give a thought about the flow on effect to other sectors. 

 

It extends from the end point of sale, all the way down to the agriculture sector.  

[nomad2019]

On 11/2/2020 at 9:04 AM, SomchaiCNX said:

You only can predict that if you have connections with people in power. You tell your wife to pack suitcases full of Thai baht, fly to Hong Kong, change them to $ US at 25 baht to the $ and put them in a foreign bank. Than you just wait and change them back in to Thai baht. Happened in 98. Always  handy to pay bills in Dubai ????

 

now send pounds to turkey lira  !!!!! ????????