With election looming, U.S. faces record surge of coronavirus cases

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Scammed likes to throw out the same misleading chart on US CV deaths, particularly on the issue of the recent rise in U.S. deaths.  Misleading because it presents no actual data, just a graph, and because it takes a very wide timeframe view that obscures what's been happening lately.

 

Here's what's been happening lately in reality -- the running prior 7 day CV deaths daily average for the U.S. from Oct. 1 to Nov. 9, and it clearly shows a substantial increase, from an average of 717 daily deaths at the beginning of October, to the latest daily average number for November being 939.

 

And the charts, with each dot representing the prior 7 day average for that date, clearly shows a pretty steady upward rise in U.S. CV deaths especially from the middle of Oct. to present.  That's the reality, not illusion.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

 

Oct. 1 detail:

 

Nov. 9 detail:

 

 

Edited November 10, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[RPCVguy]

On 11/10/2020 at 11:25 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Scammed likes to throw out the same misleading chart on US CV deaths, particularly on the issue of the recent rise in U.S. deaths.  Misleading because it presents no actual data, just a graph, and because it takes a very wide timeframe view that obscures what's been happening lately.

 

Here's what's been happening lately in reality -- the running prior 7 day CV deaths daily average for the U.S. from Oct. 1 to Nov. 9, and it clearly shows a substantial increase, from an average of 717 daily deaths at the beginning of October, to the latest daily average number for November being 939.

 

And the charts, with each dot representing the prior 7 day average for that date, clearly shows a pretty steady upward rise in U.S. CV deaths especially from the middle of Oct. to present.  That's the reality, not illusion.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

 

Here is a more condensed view of deaths per capita in comparison to other nations on both a total and a current daily basis.
The table shows deaths per million, the line graph is in deaths per 100K, but the conversion is easy enough.

 

The USA is set to move into the 6th place total - in the next several weeks.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

12 minutes ago, RPCVguy said:

 

 

The USA is set to move into the 6th place total - in the next several weeks.

 

I tend to use Johns Hopkins for a CURRENT look at how countries are doing in terms of per capita CV deaths:

 

 

The per capita number for the U.S. has been increasing, but, the U.S. relative ranking among nations, at least in the JH chart above, has tended thus far to stay around a ranking of 12th worst or so. Which I presume means, the others above have been getting worse also on a per capita basis.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[placeholder]

On 11/3/2020 at 5:22 PM, scammed said:

i am data analyst by education and value my analysis higher then media hype

always convincing to learn of the qualifications of an anonymous poster as reported by himself

[thaibeachlovers]

 

 

 

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/coronavirus/4-to-6-week-lockdown-with-lost-wages-pay-idea-floated-by-biden-coronavirus-advisor

An adviser to President-elect Joe Biden on the coronavirus is floating the idea of shutting down businesses for four-to-six weeks, and paying people for lost wages

 

 

Which is what I was saying before the election, that IMO Biden would be considering a national lockdown.

[Jeffr2]

42 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/coronavirus/4-to-6-week-lockdown-with-lost-wages-pay-idea-floated-by-biden-coronavirus-advisor

An adviser to President-elect Joe Biden on the coronavirus is floating the idea of shutting down businesses for four-to-six weeks, and paying people for lost wages

 

 

Which is what I was saying before the election, that IMO Biden would be considering a national lockdown.

Perhaps that's whats needed.  The virus is raging across the US.  Many people refuse to go out anyway.  It's totally out of control with hospitals overflowing. 

 

Sad some made this virus political.  Luckily, that person has been fired.

[stevenl]

47 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

 

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/coronavirus/4-to-6-week-lockdown-with-lost-wages-pay-idea-floated-by-biden-coronavirus-advisor

An adviser to President-elect Joe Biden on the coronavirus is floating the idea of shutting down businesses for four-to-six weeks, and paying people for lost wages

 

 

Which is what I was saying before the election, that IMO Biden would be considering a national lockdown.

'An advisor is floating an idea' is far from the same as 'he is considering a national lockdown'.

 

There are still more than 2 months before Biden can do anything, by which time the situation can be totally different.

[Credo]

52 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

 

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/coronavirus/4-to-6-week-lockdown-with-lost-wages-pay-idea-floated-by-biden-coronavirus-advisor

An adviser to President-elect Joe Biden on the coronavirus is floating the idea of shutting down businesses for four-to-six weeks, and paying people for lost wages

 

 

Which is what I was saying before the election, that IMO Biden would be considering a national lockdown.

The situation with the spread of the virus is dire in the US.   Many states have no hospital beds and in the northern US, field hospitals with tents isn't very feasible.   In North Dakota the governor is allowing medical staff who are infected to continue to work as long as they can.   
 

It is a big enough crisis that Doctors Without Borders is sending doctors to help out.   When that happens, you know the situation is serious.

 

[Jeffr2]

9 minutes ago, stevenl said:

'An advisor is floating an idea' is far from the same as 'he is considering a national lockdown'.

 

There are still more than 2 months before Biden can do anything, by which time the situation can be totally different.

Seems to be a pretty good advisor:

 

Michael Thomas Osterholm is an American epidemiologist, regents professor, and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse, now up to 160,000 new cases in a single day.... Two more months of Trump, and everyone knows what that's going to mean in terms of CV deaths.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/12/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

Quote

Covid-19: Pandemic Shatters More Records in U.S., as States and Cities Tighten Restrictions

Eight days after the U.S. hit 100,000 cases in a day for the first time, the number topped 160,000 on Thursday. Dr. Anthony Fauci called on the country to “double down” on precautions.

 

 

Also:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/12/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates?type=styln-live-updates&label=world&index=0#the-us-again-broke-records-for-new-cases-more-than-160000-and-hospitalizations
 

Quote

The pandemic has risen to crisis levels in much of the nation, especially the Midwest, as hospital executives warn of dwindling bed space and as coroners deploy mobile morgues.

...

Hospitalizations for Covid-19 also set a record on Thursday, climbing to 67,096, according to the Covid Tracking Project. It was the third straight day of record numbers, and the figure has doubled in just five weeks.
 

Deaths are rising, too, with more than 1,000 on average each day.

 

 

And meanwhile, Trump's been out playing golf...

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ballpoint]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And meanwhile, Trump's been out playing golf...

Only because he can't play the fiddle.

[Sujo]

And what is trump doing. Golf and twitter.

 

Donald, you are still president, try and actually do something instead of burying your head in a sand trap.

[RPCVguy]

23 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I tend to use Johns Hopkins for a CURRENT look at how countries are doing in terms of per capita CV deaths:

 

 

The per capita number for the U.S. has been increasing, but, the U.S. relative ranking among nations, at least in the JH chart above, has tended thus far to stay around a ranking of 12th worst or so. Which I presume means, the others above have been getting worse also on a per capita basis.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

There are 2 issues you've raised with my post. One is with the source of data. the other is with my prediction as I see the trends shown in this 2 part image from Nov 12th:

• On my source of data, I use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  The reason is that on a national sovereignty basis, the USA includes its territories (i.e. Puerto Rico) On an international basis it is appropriate to do so, though it hurts the ratios at times like these. John Hopkins (and most US domestic news media) like to ignore that sovereignty issue much of the time.
   
• As for my prediction... I do agree with your observation of the historical position, but the trend for the USA is currently so much worse on a daily basis than the countries currently above it, that it will gain on and pass them - I think in the next several weeks. The S. American countries with worse records are trending down per day, while the USA is trending up.  I've too many friends and family in the USA to wish such trends but I call them as I see them forming. At least 2 that I know of are among the over 60,000 now hospitalized - so I have good reason to hope that I'm wrong.

[RPCVguy]

On 11/12/2020 at 7:24 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I tend to use Johns Hopkins for a CURRENT look at how countries are doing in terms of per capita CV deaths:

 

The per capita number for the U.S. has been increasing, but, the U.S. relative ranking among nations, at least in the JH chart above, has tended thus far to stay around a ranking of 12th worst or so. Which I presume means, the others above have been getting worse also on a per capita basis.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

THANK YOU TallGuyJohninBKK
You made me look again at the data I'd assembled - with a huge error. I had grabbed the wrong line chart to compare data. I just went in and created this cleaner graphic of the per capita Daily Deaths currently AND recreated the table from worldometers. (No need to show long history when only the recent history will affect the table.)
Lastly I wrote in the increases between yesterday's data and now. The USA will certainly pass Bolivia but may quickly be passed by the UK, France and Italy... maybe Mexico too, though yesterday doesn't show it.
Here is the corrected chart and table pairing:

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, RPCVguy said:

There are 2 issues you've raised with my post. One is with the source of data. the other is with my prediction as I see the trends shown in this 2 part image from Nov 12th:

 

Your latest chart is much closer to the earlier data I posted direct from Johns Hopkins. And in looking at your chart above, it too is crediting Johns Hopkins as the source of its data.

 

My chart direct from JH had the U.S. listed at 13th among countries in per capita CV deaths. Your chart above has the U.S. at 10th. There are a couple of countries that are a bit higher or lower depending on which graphic you look at, accounting for those differences.

 

But the basic message is still the same --the U.S. not only has the most overall CV deaths of any country in the world by far, but also one of the highest per capita (population adjusted) rates of CV deaths in the world.

 

And meanwhile, the federal government fiddles while the U.S. (figuratively) burns.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Also this, on a parallel topic of hospitalizations:

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, stevenl said:

'An advisor is floating an idea' is far from the same as 'he is considering a national lockdown'.

 

There are still more than 2 months before Biden can do anything, by which time the situation can be totally different.

 

By then (more than two more months), in all likelihood, things will be WORSE!  Trump will have handed Biden a seriously sinking ship.

 

 

[Salerno]

17 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Which is what I was saying before the election, that IMO Biden would be considering a national lockdown.

 

16 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Perhaps that's whats needed. 

 

Melbourne in Australia recently came out of what, in anyone's language, was a fairly draconian lockdown in response to a second wave that was getting out of control, dwarfed their first wave and had the potential to swamp health services. The figures speak for themselves.

 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0#dayssince

 

The effectiveness of their action is reflected in the current situation - they have just past 14 days with zero new cases and zero deaths (down to 3 active cases, two hospitalised). 

 

I hate to think of the numbers if subsequent waves hit the US of the same magnitude it did in Victoria if they have no coordinated plan to deal with it and the same attitude seen so far in Federal Government and within a large percentage of the populace.

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Salerno

[RPCVguy]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

By then (more than two more months), in all likelihood, things will be WORSE!  Trump will have handed Biden a seriously sinking ship.

 

Sadly We agree too much on the situation and on the problems 2 months of waiting for a team of adults to take charge. A national policy needs be enacted, though it may resemble a series of regional shifts in behavior in its implementation.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

To their credit, USA Today seems to have done one new article generally recapping what all the different CV measures are, or lack of them, in all 50 states at present, state by state:

 

Quote

COVID-19 infections are soaring. Lockdowns could be coming. A list of restrictions in your state.

As COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise nationwide, some states are halting phased reopening plans or imposing new coronavirus-related restrictions.  
 

Several are putting limits on social gatherings, adding states to travel quarantine lists, mandating face masks and encouraging residents to stay home, as many did in the spring. Others are restricting business hours of operation and limiting restaurant capacity.
 

Thirty-four states – plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico – now require people to wear face coverings in public, according to a list maintained by AARP. Utah joined the list in recent days, Maine strengthened its mandate, and Ohio's governor reissued an order this week with new sanctions.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/11/13/covid-restrictions-state-list-orders-lockdowns/3761230001/

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Quote

More than 130 Secret Service officers are said to be infected with coronavirus or quarantining in wake of Trump’s campaign travel

More than 130 Secret Service officers who help protect the White House and the president when he travels have recently been ordered to isolate or quarantine because they tested positive for the coronavirus or had close contact with infected co-workers, according to three people familiar with agency staffing.

 

The spread of the coronavirus — which has sidelined roughly 10 percent of the agency’s core security team — is believed to be partly linked to a series of campaign rallies that President Trump held in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, according to the people, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the situation.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/secret-service-coronavirus-outbreak/2020/11/13/610eebcc-2539-11eb-8672-c281c7a2c96e_story.html

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK