Explainer: The potential impact of Brexit without a trade deal

[snoop1130]

Explainer: The potential impact of Brexit without a trade deal

By Guy Faulconbridge and John Chalmers

 

An electronic billboard displays a British government information message advising business to prepare for the Brexit, in London, Britain December 4, 2020. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union are seeking a post-Brexit trade deal, with failure likely to result in increased chaos in mutual trade, financial markets tumbling and huge economic costs.

 

Here are some of the potential pressure points of a failure to reach agreement on trade.

 

STERLING

 

Investors and banks have long predicted a trade deal would be done, so a no-deal would hit the British pound, foreign exchange traders say.

 

But investor sentiment was hit by the sides saying on Saturday that there was still no agreement covering annual trade worth nearly $1 trillion, and sterling has fallen against the U.S. dollar since then.

 

The shock result of Britain's referendum on leaving the EU in 2016 sent the pound down 8% against the dollar, its biggest one-day fall since the era of free-floating exchange rates began in the 1970s.

 

TRADE

 

In the case of a "no deal" on trade , Britain would lose zero-tariff and zero-quota access to the European single market of 450 million consumers overnight.

 

Britain would default to World Trade Organization (WTO) terms in its trade with the 27-state bloc. It would impose its new UK global tariff (UKGT) on EU imports while the EU would impose its common external tariff on UK imports.

 

Non-tariff barriers could hinder trade, with prices widely expected to rise for British consumers and businesses.

 

Borders risk disruption, especially the main crossing points, with experts saying shortages of certain foods are possible in Britain as it imports 60% of its fresh food, with disruptions in British lamb exports to the EU also possible.

 

Any disruption would be felt most keenly by sectors that rely on just-in-time supply chains, including autos, food and beverages. Other sectors likely to be affected would include textiles, pharmaceuticals, and chemical and petroleum products.

 

The EU is Britain's biggest trading partner, accounting for 47% of its trade in 2019. It had a trade deficit of 79 billion pounds ($104.86 billion) with the EU, a surplus of 18 billion in services outweighed by a deficit of 97 billion pounds in goods.

 

Even with a deal, Britain expects thousands of trucks bound for EU countries to stack up in the southern English county of Kent, with delays of up to two days.

 

AUTO SECTOR

 

The impact would be felt sharply by the car industry in both Britain and the EU, with British automakers facing a 10% tariff on all car exports to the EU and up to 22% for trucks and vans if no Brexit deal is struck, 23 auto industry associations said.

 

The cost would almost certainly be passed on to consumers, it added, predicting 57.7 billion euros ($69.85 billion) in costs for EU plants and costs of 52.8 billion euros for UK plants..

 

The same group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said a "no deal" Brexit would cut UK vehicle production by 2 million units over the next five years and undercut its ability to develop the next generation of zero-emission vehicles.

 

The outcome of the negotiations on fishing rights is also being closely watched as it will have political as well as economic fallout, even though fishing alone contributed just 0.03% of British economic output in 2019.

 

France has sought a deal that protects its ability to fish in UK waters for several years to come but has told its fishermen to prepare for a smaller catch.

 

THE ECONOMY

 

The long-term impact could be costly for both Britain and the 27 remaining EU member states.

 

A no-trade deal would wipe an extra 2% off British economic output in 2021 while driving up inflation, unemployment and public borrowing, Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast.

 

The OBR said tariffs under WTO rules and border disruptions would hit parts of the economy such as manufacturing that were emerging relatively unscathed from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

According to economic research by insurer Allianz in November, a hard Brexit - a sharp, disorderly split - could cost the EU as much as 33 billion euros in annual exports, with Germany, the Netherlands and France hit the hardest.

 

The shock would be felt unevenly across continental Europe, with those likely to be hit worst including Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, Portugal, Poland, the Czech Republic Cyprus, Malta and Hungary.

 

The Halle Institute for Economic Research has forecast that EU companies exporting to Britain could lose more than 700,000 jobs if no trade deal is agreed.

 

Hylke Vandenbussche, a professor at Belgium's University of Leuven, said in a report last year that Belgium would be the worst affected EU member state relative to its size, especially its food sector, with the loss of 10,000 jobs.

 

NORTHERN IRELAND

 

Both sides want to avoid a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is in the EU. Implementing the Northern Ireland protocol, which is part of the withdrawal agreement under which Britain left the EU on Jan. 31, will be complicated without a trade agreement.

 

Under the treaty, Northern Ireland remains, in effect, in the EU's single market for goods and aligned to its customs rules after Dec. 31 - unlike the rest of the United Kingdom.

 

Exactly how checks, regulations and paperwork will work between Britain and Northern Ireland is not yet clear. But without a trade deal, the divide between Britain and Northern Ireland would become more distinct.

 

Brexit without a trade deal could allow Northern Ireland to become a back door into the EU's single market, thus raising the spectre of a hard border on the island of Ireland for the first time since a 1998 peace deal.

 

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended three decades of sectarian violence between mainly Protestant Unionists who favour continued British rule and mainly Catholic Irish Nationalists who want a united Ireland.

 

ACRIMONY

 

Both sides would be likely to blame each other for any chaos after a no-deal exit and Europe would be split just as it faces the challenges of China's rise, Russian assertiveness and the continuing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

There could also be acrimony within the EU, which would lose one of Europe's leading military and intelligence powers, its second-largest economy and the only financial capital to rival New York. Britain would be left far more dependent on its alliance with the United States.

 

Britain is pushing ahead with legislation that would allow it to break parts of the withdrawal treaty relating to Northern Ireland, making it unclear how far it would implement the divorce deal.

 

CITY OF LONDON

 

The world's international financial capital is largely ready for Brexit as a trade deal was never going to cover Britain's most globally competitive industry.

 

While most banks and investors have found ways to navigate Britain's departure from the bloc, the long-term impact of an acrimonious Brexit would be unpredictable and the EU would be likely to try to grab more market share from the City of London.

 

London is the centre of the world's $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign currency markets, accounting for 43% of global turnover. Its nearest EU competitor, Paris, accounts for about 2%.

 

The British capital is also the global centre for euro trading, a potential headache for the European Central Bank.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-09

 

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[welovesundaysatspace]

I’m surprised this needs an “explainer” after so many years. 

[fishtank]

Bungling Boris and his fellow right wingers don't give a toss about the impacts of a no deal.

As long as they obtain their political objectives they could not care less about UK and it's population.

[Natai Beach]

27 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Investors and banks have long predicted a trade deal would be done, so a no-deal would hit the British pound, foreign exchange traders say.

 

Oh no.

 

So there will be more posts on this forum from our British cousins complaining about the “high baht”.

And all those who live off their British pension will have even less spending power. 
 

It will be the final nail in the coffin for some. 

 

On the bright side everyone with 400-800,000 baht invested with Thai immigration will see a rise in that value.
And anyone selling up and heading home will get more bang for their baht. 
 

Surprising they have sorted out something by now. This Brexit thing has been dragging on for years.

 

[anchadian]

5 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

 

Oh no.

 

So there will be more posts on this forum from our British cousins complaining about the “high baht”.

And all those who live off their British pension will have even less spending power. 
 

It will be the final nail in the coffin for some. 

 

On the bright side everyone with 400-800,000 baht invested with Thai immigration will see a rise in that value.
And anyone selling up and heading home will get more bang for their baht. 
 

Surprising they have sorted out something by now. This Brexit thing has been dragging on for years.

 

On par with the $, I wouldn't be surprised.

[fishtank]

2 minutes ago, anchadian said:

On par with the $, I wouldn't be surprised.

Because the USD is doing so well. ????

[fangless]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

increased chaos in mutual trade, financial markets tumbling and huge economic costs.

Please note the fact that it will be Mutual chaos.   As the EU is bigger than the UK their chaos will therefore be bigger than that in the UK. 

 

Bring it on the EU have more to lose!

 

[NanLaew]

Another list of what will happen based on hypotheticals and historical precedence that completely avoids the high probability that the EU will have to adapt to trade with the UK regardless of deal or no deal. It's not all about the UK having to adapt. After Brexit, they both still need something that the other has.

[Loiner]

Who needs and Explainer from anti-Brexit Reuters? It's not going to change anything for anybody.

We know Project Fear has gone into its' final attack, all over over blown and misleading but standard fayre for Remainers.

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Who needs and Explainer from anti-Brexit Reuters?

You apparently, otherwise you wouldn’t stick around right? 

[kingdong]

This should have been done and dusted 3 years ago,however thanks to a remainer parliament and prime minister its deteriorated to this fiasco a big thank you to all the remainers and others unable to accept democracy.

[Hi from France]

 

what a waste

[kingdong]

9 hours ago, anchadian said:

On par with the $, I wouldn't be surprised.

How about on par with the baht?

[Chomper Higgot]

7 hours ago, kingdong said:

This should have been done and dusted 3 years ago,however thanks to a remainer parliament and prime minister its deteriorated to this fiasco a big thank you to all the remainers and others unable to accept democracy.

Well naturally, it’s always somebody else’s fault.

[kingdong]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Well naturally, it’s always somebody else’s fault.

Just said that didn,t i ?

[pixelaoffy]

Gotta laugh at what so called  'news items ' Thai Visa selects on UK having left EU 

[NanLaew]

11 hours ago, kingdong said:

This should have been done and dusted 3 years ago,however thanks to a remainer parliament and prime minister its deteriorated to this fiasco a big thank you to all the remainers and others unable to accept democracy.

 

This.

 

I heard on the radio earlier that someone in the EU was recently heard proclaiming that "no deal is better than a bad deal".

 

Didn't Theresa May get fired for trotting out that bit of hyperbole?

 

Or was it part of Boris Johnson's verbal fusillade of lofty but otherwise empty grandiloquence?

Edited December 10, 2020 by NanLaew

[Surelynot]

15 hours ago, fishtank said:

Bungling Boris and his fellow right wingers don't give a toss about the impacts of a no deal.

As long as they obtain their political objectives they could not care less about UK and it's population.

That is the problem we face to a T.

 

People keep thinking we have to get a deal...it's a no brainer.......but the Tories will not  be damaged in the same that the hard working man in the street will be or huge industries and their shareholders.

 

As Boris said '<deleted> business' and he meant it.

 

This is just a game to the Tories....... all reliving the war and dreaming of past empires.....pathetic.

[RayC]

13 hours ago, kingdong said:

This should have been done and dusted 3 years ago,however thanks to a remainer parliament and prime minister its deteriorated to this fiasco a big thank you to all the remainers and others unable to accept democracy.

An old favourite returns. Must be at least one week since we have a post blaming Remainers for a farce that we didn't vote for. 

 

No doubt if things go 'tits up' post-transition that will be the Remainers' fault as well.

 

Accountability and responsibility: Words unknown to (most) Brexit supporters.

[Emdog]

"I sat upon the shore

Fishing, with the arid plain behind me

Shall I at least set my lands in order?

London Bridge is falling down falling down falling down"

bit from Eliot's "The Wasteland"

[bannork]

14 hours ago, kingdong said:

This should have been done and dusted 3 years ago,however thanks to a remainer parliament and prime minister its deteriorated to this fiasco a big thank you to all the remainers and others unable to accept democracy.

You voted for Brexit. We didn't. All your fault Brexiteers, you silly billies. 

[luckyluke]

So  we have  the Remain voters, who are not happy with the result of the referendum.

 

We don't know how much Leave voters are in favor of a deal, and how much aren't.

 

Anyway, both group can't be happy, whatever the decision of Mr. Johnson will be.

 

That makes a lot of people unhappy due to Brexit.

[fishtank]

1 minute ago, luckyluke said:

That makes a lot of people unhappy due to Brexit.

Unhappy and poorer.

[Proboscis]

15 hours ago, Loiner said:

Who needs and Explainer from anti-Brexit Reuters? It's not going to change anything for anybody.

We know Project Fear has gone into its' final attack, all over over blown and misleading but standard fayre for Remainers.

Of all the organizations to accuse of bias, the last one would be Reuters. Under the company's stated mission is to protect the integrity of the company's news output, it holds one "Founders Share," which can veto all other shares if an attempt is made to alter any of the rules relating to the Reuters Trust Principles. These principles set out the company's aims of independence, integrity, and freedom from bias in its news reporting (which you can check on their website). Subsequent to the forming of Thomson Reuters the trust principles continued, with the RFSC now holding a Founders Share in each of Thomson Reuters Corporation and Thomson Reuters PLC.

 

Reuters is a British based multinational company with offices in 200 locations throughout the globe. Do you really think that they would be pedaling needless fear among their main audience, which includes a big customer, the Murdoch press, who have been pro-Brexit since 2012 and large sections of the business community both in the UK and abroad?

[Hi from France]

8 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

Of all the organizations to accuse of bias, the last one would be Reuters. Under the company's stated mission is to protect the integrity of the company's news output, it holds one "Founders Share," which can veto all other shares if an attempt is made to alter any of the rules relating to the Reuters Trust Principles. These principles set out the company's aims of independence, integrity, and freedom from bias in its news reporting (which you can check on their website). Subsequent to the forming of Thomson Reuters the trust principles continued, with the RFSC now holding a Founders Share in each of Thomson Reuters Corporation and Thomson Reuters PLC.

 

Reuters is a British based multinational company with offices in 200 locations throughout the globe. Do you really think that they would be pedaling needless fear among their main audience, which includes a big customer, the Murdoch press, who have been pro-Brexit since 2012 and large sections of the business community both in the UK and abroad?

Bah Brexiteers have a lot in common with illiberals: they want to take control, or lacking that, to put out of business independent medias. The goal is to make sure their vision becomes the only one available to the masses. 

 

In the UK, the biggest target is the BBC, and they are very likely to be quite successful. 

[soalbundy]

17 hours ago, fangless said:

Please note the fact that it will be Mutual chaos.   As the EU is bigger than the UK their chaos will therefore be bigger than that in the UK. 

 

Bring it on the EU have more to lose!

 

I rather think that because they are bigger the ensuing chaos will be easier to offset. I also think that because it's more about money than anything else a deal will be reached or, accompanied by the gnashing of gums and the screeching of "TRAITORS" from the daily express, the transition period will be lengthened. Even if neither comes to fruition you can bet that behind the scenes talks will continue without the public gaze until a solution is reached (possibly with some threatening gestures from the new poodle owner America who were never too keen on Brexit anyway, with the UK as a member they had some secret leverage within the EU and they are loath to lose their 5th column) 

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, pixelaoffy said:

Gotta laugh at what so called  'news items ' Thai Visa selects on UK having left EU 

That's all sensible people can do.

What annoys me is the lack of facts and reports facing the EU. 

Where are they Mr Thaivisa. 

[andyg75]

16 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

You apparently, otherwise you wouldn’t stick around right? 

 

16 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

You apparently, otherwise you wouldn’t stick around right? 

AS  non Brit who has lost the fight why do you stick around.

[welovesundaysatspace]

7 minutes ago, andyg75 said:

 

AS  non Brit who has lost the fight

I haven’t lost any fight.
In fact, Brexit has provided quite some entertainment over the last years ???? 

 

7 minutes ago, andyg75 said:

why do you stick around.

The forum is called “World News” if you haven’t noticed. Now go back and ask someone who doesn’t want to read Reuters why he’s using a forum that’s only sourcing from Reuters. 

[Loiner]

57 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

I haven’t lost any fight.
In fact, Brexit has provided quite some entertainment over the last years ???? 

 

The forum is called “World News” if you haven’t noticed. Now go back and ask someone who doesn’t want to read Reuters why he’s using a forum that’s only sourcing from Reuters. 

Why not ask the forum why TVF is only sourcing from Reuters? Could TVF, or its' OP, be an anti-Brexit Remainer pushing their own agenda?