Thailand reports biggest coronavirus surge, over 500 cases - Samut Sakhon placed in to lockdown

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Thailand reports biggest coronavirus surge, over 500 cases 

 

A medical worker performs a nose swab on a migrant worker at a seafood market, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Samut Sakhon province, in Thailand, December 19, 2020. REUTERS/Panumas Sa

 

Thailand reported over 500 cases of coronavirus from the centre of its seafood industry where there are many migrant workers on Saturday, in by far the biggest one-day rise in a country that had previously brought the epidemic largely under control.

 

The outbreak appeared in Samut Sakhon province, southwest of Bangkok, where four infections were reported at a shrimp market on Friday - the first a 67-year-old woman.

 

Disease Control Department director-general Opas Karnkawinpong told a news conference that 516 new cases were found after testing that included 1,192 migrant workers. More than 90 percent were asymptomatic, he said.

 

A total of 535 new cases reported on Saturday, bringing Thailand's total number to more than 4,800 with 60 deaths.

 

The majority of the migrant workers in Samut Sakhon are from Myanmar, which has suffered a far worse outbreak of coronavirus than Thailand, where health authorities credit early action with limiting the spread of the virus.

 

"While there is a likelihood of finding more infections in crowded foreign communities around the shrimp market, they are low-risk groups because they are working age and healthy," Opas said.

 

The province was ordered closed until Jan. 3.

 

Local cases have previously largely been found in people observing quarantine after having been in close contact with an infected person. Most of Thailand's recent cases have been imported.

 

The surge in cases comes just as Thailand is seeking to revive a tourist industry that has been devastated by the epidemic. On Thursday, it eased restrictions to allow more foreign tourists to return.

 

The government predicts about 8 million foreign tourists in 2021 after 6.7 million expected this year. Last year's foreign visitors were a record of nearly 40 million.

 

(Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Matthew Tostevin and David Evans)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-19

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[cyril sneer]

It was only a matter of time..

 

Surely this means another lockdown?

[SGD]

Are they actually going to start telling the truth for once ?

 

[bermondburi]

What a surprise. They actually did some testing and they found some cases. 

[Ratcher]

Unfortunately, this could result in another Nationwise lockdown. An effective vaccine is the only way forward. Look at the UK, Christmas cancelled virtually everywhere. 

[GeorgeCross]

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by GeorgeCross

[Flying Saucage]

Interesting to see these results, now as the land of purity Thailand eventually is starting to do some mass testing.

 

No need to panic too much, though. Thailand is in a lucky situation due to its climate. Thanks to the hot climate, people are either outdoors where the concentration of the virus loaded aerosols is low, as the dwell time of droplets and aerosols in the air is short.

 

Or they are indoors with an AC switched on, and the AC reduces aerosols and droplets in the air as well, leading also to low virus concentrations in the inhaled air. This low virus load statistically leads to mostly weak or asymptomatic cases. 

 

The outcome never will reach the level as northern countries experience during the wet and cold winter there.

 

Quite likely that what they are seeing now has been the situation for quite a while already, but due to not testing nobody saw it.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[Olivie]

Wow it seems when Thailand test people, SURPRISINGLY they find cases.
They should have stuck to their strategy: no test, no case...

Edited December 19, 2020 by Olivie

[Saraburi121]

Not familiar with the seafood industry there but have this vision of drivers in small delivery trucks with water running out the back from refrigeration/melting ice delivering seafood from there all over the country. Had plans to shop in Bangkok this week but just cancelled hotel reservations darn it. Was looking forward to some fine drinking..I mean dining and shopping.  

[Olivie]

I hope they do not starting a nationwide testing strategy, they would find a surprise.

[drenddy]

Great news.Wake up, Dorothy. 

[madmitch]

A lot of shrimp farmers and brokers from Chachoengsao and Chonburi sell to this market, including my GF's family. I heard about the possible outbreak from them before it made the press.

 

Think the trip to Chachoengsao and Bangkok for Christmas and New Year will be put on hold.

[pegman]

50 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

Interesting to see these results, now as the land of purity Thailand eventually is starting to do some mass testing.

 

No need to panic too much, though. Thailand is in a lucky situation due to its climate. Thanks to the hot climate, people are either outdoors where the concentration of the virus loaded aerosols is low, as the dwell time of droplets and aerosols in the air is short.

 

Or they are indoors with an AC switched on, and the AC reduces aerosols and droplets in the air as well, leading also to low virus concentrations in the inhaled air. This low virus load statistically leads to mostly weak or asymptomatic cases. 

 

The outcome never will reach the level as northern countries experience during the wet and cold winter there.

 

Quite likely that what they are seeing now has been the situation for quite a while already, but due to not testing nobody saw it.

 

This situation is in greater Bangkok. Have you ever been on the MRT during rush times? This could easily get out of control quickly. 

[pegman]

9 minutes ago, madmitch said:

A lot of shrimp farmers and brokers from Chachoengsao and Chonburi sell to this market, including my GF's family. I heard about the possible outbreak from them before it made the press.

 

Think the trip to Chachoengsao and Bangkok for Christmas and New Year will be put on hold.

Yes, best to play it safe inspector.

[asiacurious]

1 hour ago, SGD said:

Are they actually going to start telling the truth for once ?

 

Which truths were they not telling before?

[KhaoYai]

I think this could be the worst news Thailand could have regarding Covid 19.  Samut Sakhon is, as I understand it, a major source of fish and other seafood for the whole country.  I believe hundreds of pick-ups full of fish and prawns etc. leave the area every day - bound for the provinces.

 

Its good that they have locked the area down but its also clear that many people who've been in contact with infected people will have already travelled all over Thailand.

[david555]

 

"While there is a likelihood of finding more infections in crowded foreign communities around the shrimp market, they are low-risk groups because they are working age and healthy," Opas said.

 

 

So no "ploblem "....as they are young and healthy ????

 

....so they can not spread the virus ...?????

Typical T.I.T.

[Flying Saucage]

29 minutes ago, pegman said:

This situation is in greater Bangkok. Have you ever been on the MRT during rush times? This could easily get out of control quickly. 

 

Sure, I understand and agree to your point.

 

But be aware that the MRT and BTS also have a strong aircon, which dries the air heavily and hence reduces the amount of aerosols in the air. Also, most people wear masks in the MRT and BTS (I assume, but I have been outside Thailand since March, so I don't know this for sure), and last but not least the people stay in the trains only for a few minutes, which also reduces the inhaled virus load. All this together statistically leads to more weaker or asymptomatic cases. 

 

Mostly weak or asymptomatic cases might be what has happened in Thailand for months already.

 

My two posts are just an attempt to explain and to understand the mechanisms why the known numbers in Thailand have been so small till today.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[internationalism]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

Or they are indoors with an AC switched on, and the AC reduces aerosols and droplets in the air as well, leading also to low virus concentrations in the inhaled air. This low virus load statistically leads to mostly weak or asymptomatic cases. 

actually, high humidity and high temperature lowers wirus load in an environment.

That's why viruses, like flu, thrive in winter, when cold and low humidity.

That's why out brake happened in wuham in january. That's why it came to south america in June (their winter time). And that's why the second wave in europe, the usa and thailand is happening now.

Air conditioning might be spreading covid, same as it's known for spreading other viruses and bacteria. At present they should be cleaned, even daily - or the best is not using them at all.

This reseach is for SARS several years ago

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22312351/

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by internationalism

[Flying Saucage]

14 minutes ago, internationalism said:

Air conditioning might be spreading covid, same as it's known for spreading other viruses and bacteria.

 

Yes, it spreads viruses, but by doing so, at the same time the concentration of the virus in the air (number of virus contaminated aerosols per volume of inhaled air) gets lower. Additionally, virus containing droplets and aerosols condensate in the AC.

 

The result is (always statistically) a reduced number of inhaled viruses, which leads to less severe infections. I haven''t seen any publications about that yet, but for reasons of physics, this seems to be logical and could be one explanation about the situation in Thailand.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[asiacurious]

1 hour ago, bermondburi said:

What a surprise. They actually did some testing and they found some cases. 

 

52 minutes ago, Olivie said:

Wow it seems when Thailand test people, SURPRISINGLY they find cases.
They should have stuck to their strategy: no test, no case...

 

These posts (and many others in various threads these months) hint at the same general thing - that Thailand does not test in order to keep cases hidden/unreported.

 

There is a problem with this line of thought.  Some of those hidden people with Covid will be sick enough to require hospitalization.  And if you don't test them once they're in the hospital, you're going to end up with a lot of other sick people (both in and out of the hospital).  Not testing sick people won't keep the hospital beds from filling up as more and more people get sick.

 

Furthermore, whether or not the government tests people can be discerned based on what happened up north a few weeks ago when people who came across the border showed up at hospitals with symptoms....  They were tested, their contacts were traced and tested, and all of this was made public.  Hundreds of people were tested, most were negative.  Why test these people but not all those others the government doesn't test to hide the numbers?  What's so special about them?

 

And now we see this same thing in Samut Sakhon.  A woman went to the hospital with symptoms and she was tested.  What's special about her?  Why test her, why report on her positive result?  Why didn't they not test her so they could hide her case too?  Why test her family and others who worked at the market? 

 

IF the government was trying to hide the true number of people with Covid by not testing, then why test anyone, ever?

 

Simple answer.  They were tested because they had symptoms and went to the hospital.  Period.

 

 

Why lock down Samut Sakhon now?  If the virus is already all over the place (but hidden because the government does not test!) then what's the point of locking down.  Oh, wait....  To keep the ruse going?

 

[Terry2905]

50 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

I think this could be the worst news Thailand could have regarding Covid 19.  Samut Sakhon is, as I understand it, a major source of fish and other seafood for the whole country.  I believe hundreds of pick-ups full of fish and prawns etc. leave the area every day - bound for the provinces.

 

Its good that they have locked the area down but its also clear that many people who've been in contact with infected people will have already travelled all over Thailand.

 

Good point! That is my opinion also. 

 

Track and trace is also not effective in Thailand now!

 

No 7-11 now require log in and log out with Thai Chana or "paper" registration. Big C and Tesco also the same! Only a temperature check, which means nothing if you are asymptomatic?

 

And it is not only the provinces that the seafood is transported to!

 

The whole of Bangkok receive their seafood from Samut Sakhon?

 

How many delivery drivers may have got the virus?

 

 

[Saraburi121]

2 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

Interesting to see these results, now as the land of purity Thailand eventually is starting to do some mass testing.

 

No need to panic too much, though. Thailand is in a lucky situation due to its climate. Thanks to the hot climate, people are either outdoors where the concentration of the virus loaded aerosols is low, as the dwell time of droplets and aerosols in the air is short.

 

Or they are indoors with an AC switched on, and the AC reduces aerosols and droplets in the air as well, leading also to low virus concentrations in the inhaled air. This low virus load statistically leads to mostly weak or asymptomatic cases. 

 

The outcome never will reach the level as northern countries experience during the wet and cold winter there.

 

Quite likely that what they are seeing now has been the situation for quite a while already, but due to not testing nobody saw it.

 

Very good post, hopefully an accurate assessment.   

[Elkski]

I sure hope they can get on top of this.   

All you guys wanting the tourist gates open. well here is what I predicted would happen.  Most likely this is the more easily  spread 614G mutation that  Thailand  missed back in Jan Feb.   I commend Thailand for trying so hard at contact tracing.  I hope they don't end up with to many cases to track.  Please no new Hotspot.  

This explosion has been swift.   It was just 12 cases and now 500+ and GF says on BKK news sat night is was 800+.  She says everyone at work was talking about this and mad as h3ll. 

I strongly disagree with flying sausages guess work.    No real studies have been done with this virus relating to spread conditions.   Its stupid to say a 2-5 stop trip is a sardine packed BTS is low risk.  Remember this can enter your body via your eyes.   What about the que lines waiting to buy tickets or for  2-3 trains during crowded times?  How many people do you bump into? How many mouths are within 2 meters.   No one is testing these homemade masks.   So many are worn losely.  If you have never been officially test fitted for a ????  mask you have no idea how critical the fit and seal is.   I have been fitted where they use this highly stinky dust and if is very hard to learn how to wear a mask properly to block it.    How many times have you smelled someone's hotdogs burp at a ball game or in a ski lift line.  As a bow  hunter with an above average sense of smell I am an very aware of which direction my scent is traveling and I know molecules travel very far.  Molecules we smell are gigantic HC chains not a single cell .2 micron  covid19.   

I'm not convinced the "wet" market means so much for this outbreak other than it being full of border crossing workers who probably live and work in crowded conditions.   And it is a busy market with lots of plastic bags and probably  most handling money and fish without washing hands like most markets. 

[AmySeeker]

 

Oh dear ... sure do hope the track and trace system works.

 

At least it looks like quick action is being taken. 

 

In the UK our mega expensive multiple billion pound track and trace system is nothing more than a call centre with a polite call to people to stay at home. They barely do any hardcore tracking other than what the infected person has told them. Then the stay at home order is barely enforced and often ignored. 

 

I think Thai people may well be more responsible though. 

Edited December 19, 2020 by AmySeeker

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

No need to panic too much, though. Thailand is in a lucky situation due to its climate. Thanks to the hot climate, people are either outdoors where the concentration of the virus loaded aerosols is low, as the dwell time of droplets and aerosols in the air is short.

I sincerely hope you're correct. However, that point was speculated on earlier in the pandemic - then Brazil happened. Brazil is a hot country with temperatures comparable with Thailand.

 

Brazil yesterday: 52,385 new infections/811 new deaths/ 185,687 deaths in total.

 

www.worldometers.com

 

Then of course, there's India.

Edited December 19, 2020 by KhaoYai

[champers]

Stable doors and already bolted horses is my fear. Complacency set in months ago and social distancing measures are a distant memory. Add in leaky borders for good measure.

[KhaoYai]

28 minutes ago, AmySeeker said:

In the UK our mega expensive multiple billion pound track and trace system is nothing more than a call centre with a polite call to people to stay at home.

Boris will have some serious questions to answer when this is all over.  Track and Trace staff on TV saying they'd received £1000's in salary but no more than a handful of contacts to trace.  Then there's the millionaire's created by simply acting as go-betweens in the supply of PPE from China (one reportedly netting over £30 million!!!). I know there was panic at the time but you could have built a few PPE factories for that - and that's just the commission!!!

 

If there's any justice in the world - Boris and his mates won't survive that enquiry. Personally I'd go back a few centuries and their heads would be on Tower Bridge!

[Khunangkaro]

3 hours ago, Olivie said:

Wow it seems when Thailand test people, SURPRISINGLY they find cases.
They should have stuck to their strategy: no test, no case...

Many tests MANY False Positive. 

[Flying Saucage]

49 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

I sincerely hope you're correct. However, that point was speculated on earlier in the pandemic - then Brazil happened. Brazil is a hot country with temperatures comparable with Thailand.

 

Brazil yesterday: 52,385 new infections/811 new deaths/ 185,687 deaths in total.

 

www.worldometers.com

 

Then of course, there's India.

 

I have a business partner in Manila and discussed with him about this as well. I asked him if he knows where exactly the most people there are affected by Corona. He said that there is no official confirmation, but likely this is the case in the slums of Manila. 

 

Now, when the load of inhaled viruses caused by inhaled aerosols is the key measure, as more dense the population his, as less the dwell time of the aerosols in the ambient air will play a role. And of course, the people in the slums in Manila, Kalutta, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro live under quite dense conditions. Together with a lockdown, when not allowed to leave their homes, they are in a trap. In the Philippines and in India, there have been strict lockdowns.

 

For Thailand I have hope, as the situation in Thailand cannot be compared with India or Brasil due to these reasons. Scientific proof to this is missing yet sa far as I know, though. But this does not mean that it cannot be true.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage