UK PM Johnson could lose his seat and majority at next election - poll

[joecoolfrog]

Brexit and Covid will be history in 3 years , the next general election will be settled on the issues of the day.

 

[joecoolfrog]

1 hour ago, adammike said:

It was a survey of more than 22,000 people, conducted by the research data company Focaldata,using the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method.I copied that from the independent.It was first published in the Sunday times and then the Guardian and others.

Tories 284 seats, Labour 282 the SP winning 57 of the 59 Scottish seats.The LibDems down to 2 seats.Light at the end of the tunnel maybe.

Who is going to be first to put up a 10k wager on the result ?come on MGDN. 

The bookmakers have no bias or axe to grind ,their view as to which party forms the next government ;

Conservatives 8-11.

Labour 5-4.

So really too close to call , my view is that it will be the party with the greater unity that will prevail.

 

[puipuitom]

8 hours ago, pegman said:

True, in 3 years the E.U. financial services industry will have moved lock, stock and barrel to the continent.  Transferring some of the most lucrative jobs in London and 10% of the UK economy over the channel. In which case the Tories will be done like dinner by next election. 

What is the problem ? The UK voters voted with a landslide, overwhelmingly majority of 51,8% for a Brexit, whatever the consequences. So, they got a Brexit. The rest.. comes with what was asked for.

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, robblok said:

I think everyone is happy its over, I think the deal is good for both sides. I find a poll about the popularity a bit premature. If covid is beaten then the outlook could really change. So this does not say much.

Not "good", but the best choice of what was left in possibilities: a NO DEAL or.. THIS deal.

[candide]

2 hours ago, Loiner said:

Very definitely an absurd EU system. 

Some estimates have 1 million tonnes of fish and sea life thrown back each year. EU member states - including the UK - were required to throw some fish back into the water, as pollution. 

This controversial practice was known as "discarding" and involved returning unwanted catches back to sea (dead or alive) because they were too small or because the crew had exceeded their quota - the amount of fish they were allowed to catch.

That's why a "landing obligation" has been introduced since 2016.

Despite this former discarding practice, the effect of quota policy has been evident (see sources in my previous post).

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, candide said:

That's why a "landing obligation" has been introduced since 2016.

Despite this former discarding practice, the effect of quota policy has been evident (see sources in my previous post).

It had been an absurd policy for many years. The CFP landing obligation wasn’t full implemented until as recently as 2019.  That’s how slow and reluctant the EU is to remedy all of its absurdities. It’s an absurd entity, already failing, which will now begin to wither and die. 

[GrandPapillon]

5 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

Hi … not sure if you are from the UK, or what knowledge you have of the history of the UK’s fishing industry, but it certainly was not tiny before we joined the EEC (later to morph into the EU) We are an island nation, surrounded by some of the richest fishing seas in the world and our decimated fishing industry will now hopefully be able to regenerate, as will the waters, particularly the North Sea, that has been all but emptied by huge industrial trawlers from EU member states.

 

 

When we joined the EEC, and now with the release of Government papers under the 30 year rule, we know that Geoffrey Rippon, fisheries minister at the time, told Ted Heath, Prime Minister at the time, "If we want to enter the EEC (as it was then known) we will have to sacrifice Britain's fishermen” ……… Determined to join at all costs, that is exactly what the traitor did.

 

The Common Fisheries policy was hastily introduced by the original 6 members at the instigation of France, at the time that Britain was negotiating membership. It was a simple ploy by the member states to give all members equal fishing rights to UK territorial waters, reducing the protection zone of our fishermen’s rights to 12 miles from the coastline from its previous 200.

 

It also introduced an absurd quota system that has not only seen millions upon millions of fish thrown back into the sea for gulls to feed on, but has resulted in our fishing industry, that was the largest in all of Europe, being completely decimated, leaving huge unemployment and poverty in towns like Hull and Grimsby, the latter once being the largest fishing port in the world, yes indeed, the largest fishing port in the ???? ……

 

…. thanks

interesting and refreshing view about that industry,

Edited January 3, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[Hi from France]

12 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

 

I read the Times online, and had read the article this morning. I must say I’m not really sure what purpose is served by conducting a poll trying to predict the result of a general election that is almost 3½ years away.

 

That notwithstanding, I have a couple of issues with the REUTERS report posted here. Firstly, the report says “This is the first detailed survey of the public's perception of Johnson's handling of the recently concluded Brexit talks” this is incorrect, because the poll was conducted between the 4th and 29th December, before the Brexit deal had been agreed, and the UK was teetering on the brink of a no deal scenario; so, very misleading.

 

Secondly, although the report states that is was a MRP poll (multilevel regression and post-stratification) it fails to explain what that is, for those, like myself, that had never heard of it.

 

The MRP poll is apparently a process that is a statistical method that produces predictions based on small geographic areas, analysing elements of a person’s lifestyle and background to generate probabilities about their voting habits.

 

Most traditional polls have proven to be fatally flawed over the last 5 years, with all the Brexit polls a good example of that, and at least I now know what a MPR poll is now

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The Guardian article that I posted on another thread gives more details 

[Hi from France]

10 hours ago, bradiston said:

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

 

Read the whole grisly story about UK fishing quotas. Most sold into foreign hands by UK fishermen themselves. It's complete nonsense such a tiny industry should have dominated brexit talks. The whole industry is, or was, a mess. But it was a typical heist by the likes of Farage and co to seize on this emotive issue (British waters, white cliffs of Dover etc etc) and start the BS fest. Just Google UK fishing quotas.

Right, but if all you read is yahoo news and tabloids, fishing is a big deal. 

 

Now the UK is trying to rush a negotiation on financial services. We're talking one million jobs and 20 billions of exports in the EU every year and this can make or break the next election along with the popularity of Boris Johnson 

 

Things are going to get even more interesting. 

 

As I understand, they want a non-binding memorandum and not a treaty, I suppose it means they have nothing to offer... I wonder what the EU will do there. 

 

It seems the offer is "not to breach EU regulations" 

 

Quote

However, Brussels fears the UK may shift further away from the EU by rolling back regulation in an attempt to become more competitive.

 

Quote

Mr Glen has moved to assuage concerns, claiming London did not have its sights on becoming “Singapore-on-Thames” by axing regulation.

 

Quote

The capital’s financial services were not going to be “enhanced” by “rapid deregulation or reckless short-termism, he told The Sunday Times.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/03/crunch-talks-londons-relationship-eu-loom/

 

. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Hi from France

[andyg75]

11 hours ago, puipuitom said:

First of all: Holland is the strip in the west of the nation called since 1815: Netherlands.

2) The well-being of our trade/neighbours DOES interest me, as it influences my own life. Especially the nation on the other side of the herring & mackerel pool.

 

Well there you go,I said I don’t bother reading anything about Holland or France . Not interested 

[Chomper Higgot]

8 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

Brexit and Covid will be history in 3 years , the next general election will be settled on the issues of the day.

 

Increased poverty, wealth disparity, unemployment, the NHS and government incompetence/corruption would be my guess.

[puipuitom]

37 minutes ago, andyg75 said:

 

Well there you go,I said I don’t bother reading anything about Holland or France . Not interested 

Lack of intelligence ?

Or THE reason, why we in the EU must be happy to correct the mistake in NOT listening to Charles de Gaulle, and finally get rid of (quite some ) British in the EU ?

Edited January 4, 2021 by puipuitom

[robblok]

12 hours ago, BritManToo said:

If they sacked any world leader that didn't handle COVID well, they'd all be gone tomorrow.

Yea not a Brit thing in the Netherlands they are angry with the minister for messing up vaccination. Going to slow. So all over the world mistakes are made. Thing is many Brits on this forum don't want to see any bad news about their country. 

 

I don't really care i read that the Dutch failed with fast vaccination, and repost it. What is the problem criticizing people and countries for handling the virus. Its not as if people hold the Brit people responsible for anything. They seem to see it as an attack on their pride.

[robblok]

10 hours ago, Loiner said:

Very definitely an absurd EU system. 

Some estimates have 1 million tonnes of fish and sea life thrown back each year. EU member states - including the UK - were required to throw some fish back into the water, as pollution. 

This controversial practice was known as "discarding" and involved returning unwanted catches back to sea (dead or alive) because they were too small or because the crew had exceeded their quota - the amount of fish they were allowed to catch.

Right that was a bad side effect. But if there was no quota more was taken and the fish would be decimated. Still the better option. If we had let it up to fishermen there would be no fish in the sea anymore. Many of the socks really came back because of the quotas. 

 

If you let them keep the fish then they would have been encouraged to go on fishing and deplete stocks. So the fault is more with the fishermen then with the system. They did not stop in time.

[robblok]

5 hours ago, Hi from France said:

Right, but if all you read is yahoo news and tabloids, fishing is a big deal. 

 

Now the UK is trying to rush a negotiation on financial services. We're talking one million jobs and 20 billions of exports in the EU every year and this can make or break the next election along with the popularity of Boris Johnson 

 

Things are going to get even more interesting. 

 

As I understand, they want a non-binding memorandum and not a treaty, I suppose it means they have nothing to offer... I wonder what the EU will do there. 

 

It seems the offer is "not to breach EU regulations" 

 

 

 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/03/crunch-talks-londons-relationship-eu-loom/

 

. 

The deal has been done the UK can't offer anything for the EU to allow their financial services. So they won't be getting a deal. The EU is not stupid BJ should have focused on this and not fishing. 

 

But the symbolic value of fishing for nationalistic Brits is much higher then the real issue of financial services (something that is far more valuable). I guess those die hard Brexiteers did not think that through.

 

No problem EU comes out as the winner and UK financial system gets decimated. Good for Amsterdam, Germany and France. That is what you get for going for populist votes instead of economic principles.

[CharlieH]

Inflammatory remark removed.

[transam]

13 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

I don't recall you being so upset that £1 billion of taxpayers' money was given to terrorist supporters in return for their backing for Brexit. Are you happy to throw your weight behind those terrorist supporters with whom you have common goals?

I don't recall even being interested in who gets what, you obviously are, plus, you can't get over losing Brexit and not getting a Scottish referendum for at least another 30 years... My advice to you is, chill out....

[CharlieH]

Troll comments and responses to them removed.

 

Do not make your comments personal.

[transam]

14 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

A number of Brexiteers on this forum categorically stated they wanted no deal.

So what, you and your followers want to remain in the EU, so what...

I have never stated here I wanted no deal, others have, of which I have no problem with.........

[transam]

14 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Yeah by the same token why do some of the ex pats get their knickers in a twist about the goings on in country they chose to leave. Trawling TVF daily for a new thread to repeat the same old stuff which hardly affects them. 

 

I guess because everyone has the freedom to post what they want where they want and don’t need your blessing or understanding fortunately. 

You joined our club then.......????

[transam]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

Lack of intelligence ?

Or THE reason, why we in the EU must be happy to correct the mistake in NOT listening to Charles de Gaulle, and finally get rid of (quite some ) British in the EU ?

Well at least you're now being honest regarding your dislike of the UK in general. I suspected that from your posts. ????

 

[norfolkc]

It's nearly four years away what a pointless article what fools write this guff  

[vogie]

2 hours ago, puipuitom said:

Lack of intelligence ?

Or THE reason, why we in the EU must be happy to correct the mistake in NOT listening to Charles de Gaulle, and finally get rid of (quite some ) British in the EU ?

But why would anyone want to listen to de Gaulle he was an ultra French nationalist, he hated Americans just as much as the British, probably hated everything that wasn't French. He even blamed the British for inventing Belgium just to annoy the French, it's true, when in reality we invented Belgium to annoy the Dutch. ????????????

[Chomper Higgot]

24 minutes ago, norfolkc said:

It's nearly four years away what a pointless article what fools write this guff  

I’ll wager the guy in No 11 is paying attention to this poll.

[onthedarkside]

Numerous posts have been removed, including ones focusing on the political leanings of UK media outlets, the nationalities of posters and other off-topic issues.

 

[Eloquent pilgrim]

6 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Increased poverty, wealth disparity, unemployment, the NHS and government incompetence/corruption would be my guess.

 

You obviously do not follow World economic news. The UK has just moved above India to become the 5th largest economy in the World. With Germany the only one of the remaining 27 EU member states, above the UK in 4th place. Stop talking the UK down please, especially if you are going to use inaccuracies and fabrications to do so.

 

Cheers ….. have a good day   

[onthedarkside]

More off topic posts have been removed, along with a personal comment post for the second time.

 

The topic here is:

 

UK PM Johnson could lose his seat and majority at next election - poll

 

[FangFerang]

Johnson lose his seat?  We can only hope, the buffoon.

[transam]

55 minutes ago, FangFerang said:

Johnson lose his seat?  We can only hope, the buffoon.

Why is that..?

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

You obviously do not follow World economic news. The UK has just moved above India to become the 5th largest economy in the World. With Germany the only one of the remaining 27 EU member states, above the UK in 4th place. Stop talking the UK down please, especially if you are going to use inaccuracies and fabrications to do so.

 

Cheers ….. have a good day   

The size of the economy is irrelevant to the issues I mentioned.

 

I have had a wonderful day thank you.