TAT forced to face reality: more than a third of the Thai tourist industry has gone bust

[ChipButty]

2 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

 

Anything with only two bedrooms cannot be call a "villa".

Just sayin' like......

I couldn't care less what you think

Edited January 23, 2021 by ChipButty

[Anant72]

6 hours ago, bermondburi said:

TAT come out with these ideas to bring tourists back, but like you say, until the quarantine changes they aren't coming. I read one recently that people would come to Thailand for vaccination tours. Pay over the odds at a private thai hospital for a vaccination program but still including the quarantine. You just couldn't make it up. Who comes up with this stuff!? ???? Completely overlooking the fact that in most people's countries it's going to be free anyway, and they'll have had it way before Thailand gets any jabs, and NO ONE WANTS TO QUARANTINE!!! 

The problem is that people get their positions based NOT on competence but on who will pay the most for the job. Sad.

[Blumpie]

Oh it's done folks.  Everyone knew it but these people.  

The sad fact of the matter, is maybe 2023 things will start getting better.  We are still in the early days of the pandemic and have a long ways to go before anything turns to normal.  

The USA is now slapping down travel restrictions and you must quarantine 14 days when returning plus have a negative covid test before even getting on the plane.  It's a rotten virus - you can test negative, have it running in your system and spread it until up to 12 days later.  

 

This is only the start, and our talking about COVID are only just beginning.  Ugh!

[Tony Doc]

Reality who really cares? - propaganda all is phony (pace Bob Dylan- "it's alright Ma")

[GeilGeilertzen]

The real crisis haven’t come to the doorstep yet.  Just wait until 2022.  In 2023 the real cheap land deals and buildings can be bought. 
It’s over and it’s about time people understand it. 
 

The word hope is never a part of any business strategy.  Hope and prayers belong to church only and not in real life strategies. 

[bwpage3]

9 hours ago, ezzra said:

Well. allow tourists to come in following a proper PCR test, and if some have got the vaccine go easy on them and not this draconian 14 days incarceration costing lot of money, show flexibility and willingness to accommodate the above mentioned and oh yeah, stop silly tax on non existing tourist and things will get better...

Why exactly do you think tourists want to come to Thailand right now?

 

I for sure do NOT want to travel to Thailand. 

 

COVID is popping up everywhere, gov't has not been truthful reporting the numbers, air quality is Bangkok is pathetically poor, tons of businesses closed, attractions closed, etc.

 

No place I want to travel to, in fact not all all in 2021.

[CM Dad]

In Chiang Mai the figure is more like 60 to 70% completely closed down and out of business.

[thailand49]

Wasted the money you could have just gone on ThaiVisa and found that out!????

[bwpage3]

8 hours ago, redwood1 said:

When 7-11s, Burger Kings, and Starbucks are closing down all over the place, the situation is not just bad its desperate and getting worse all the time.....Only removing all restrictions for tourist 100% could turn things around....

As I said in an earlier post, for me, it has nothing to do with restrictions.

 

Covid popping up all over the place and who knows exactly which areas are tested and which are not?

 

Air quality in Bangkok in pathetically poor.

 

Tons of businesses out of business.

 

Not a place I want to travel to at all in 2021.

 

Why would a tourist want to come to Thailand now amid all the uncertainty?

[Searat7]

6 hours ago, Smilermike said:

Not only that . You have to now think of the retired foreigners living here. Many of which will return  to their origins or another country which are more motivated on attracting foreigners with more relaxed rules and prices.

Or the ones who have been waiting for a vaccine in their home countries who are coming to realize there is little left to return for.....especially if it entailed a 15 day quarantine ! I think most of the people who needed to get back to their families or jobs are already back there.

[bwpage3]

7 hours ago, crobe said:

Latest local infections in Thailand today (Saturday 23rd) are 180 of which 163 were in Samut Sakhon, 9 in Bangkok and 5 in Samut Songkhram

That means only 3 in other provinces and I am guessing that Chonburi will be zero or one as it has been in the past 5 days.

The "red-zone" restrictions are not due to be reviewed until the end of the month, but with the inter-provincial travel ban in place is it not time to immediately open up local restaurants and shops for local people to use?  

It won't be much help but it may help a little

There has been no testing what so ever in our area of Isaan.

 

So how does the government know or not know there is any covid?

 

How many 100's of other locations are they not doing any testing?

[Per Norstedt]

They will have as they wanted ????

[bwpage3]

7 hours ago, Mavideol said:

 

TAT only has one option .... Push the Re-Start button and they better do it fast before it hits rock bottom. While re-starting they should work hand on hand with IMO and revise all their visa restrictions/requirements making it easy/appealing for people to come back, if they still hanging on the current/existing hurdles no re-starting button will save them

Who wants to come to a country where everything is closed and the air quality is extremely poor?

[crobe]

I agree with most of the posters on this thread - the mass tourism that we have seen in the past 5-10 years with cheap airline travel is not going to return quickly.

Not only are a lot of these cheap travel companies going bust, peoples expectations of having such holidays has been changed dramatically by this pandemic.

The first thing that will return will be business travel - meetings and conferences - which will be able to accommodate some of the newer restrictions, but still a lot of this will remain as "virtual" zoom meetings.

The fact is that around 70-75% of travel spend has disappeared in 2020 - and around the same amount of tourism businesses - that means the level of spending is equivalent to 30 years ago (1990) - think back to what Pattaya, Phuket and Samui looked like 30 years ago and that is the level of tourism that will be the starting point for any recovery.

These centers of tourism should not be just thinking about how they can attract the tourists again, they have to think about how they diversify the local economies away from tourism dependency.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by crobe

[bwpage3]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What will the future of tourism look like here? I am guessing 5 to 20 million annually, at most, during our lifetimes. If Thailand is fortunate. That means thousands of hotels will go under. Trillions of dollars in tourism infrastructure lost? It will have a minor effect on some very wealthy people. But, who will carry the burden of most of this? The common man. Tourism is not returning to Thailand anytime soon. If you think about it, the group that comprised perhaps 80% of all arrivals (lower to middle income Chinese, Malaysian and Indians) are the ones who have been hardest hit by this idiotic worldwide economic shutdown. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work. Most countries will still be required to have Covid letters, as the virus is still raging in many countries. And some countries will not issue that letter (impossible to get in the US). Plus, will the mandatory health insurance still be required? Vaccinations? Will it be even stricter than before? And just what are people returning to, or coming to? Will restaurants be open? How about nightlife? Trillions of baht are going to be lost here. Annually. Tourism will NEVER fully recover. Not in our lifetimes. Too much timidity. Too much cowardice. Too little juice and creativity. Such small minds. Expect 300,000 tourists in the 12 months following the end of restrictions. 2 million the following year, and no more than 5 million tourists a year for several years after that. This is realistic. International tourism here will never be the same, post Covid. 

 

And apart from those who die of hunger due to the economy shutdown, hundreds of millions are driven into severe poverty, suicide, in Scandinavia cancer screening and other important things are beng postponed due to the corona, most likely resulting in a higher death rate for some diseases, people are losing their businesses, their homes, more divorces, more drinking, etc., etc., etc. - just so that the 96 old blind, deaf, and senile Olga can live 6 months longer. Those dying of starvation are mostly children with a long life ahead of them.
 

Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb. The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

This is certainly the first time in history (first wave excluded) that most of the worlds economies were deliberately shut down. Even during all 51 of the major bubonic plagues, between 541AD In Europe and Western Asia, and the last one to happen in China in 1946, the Japanese smallpox plague of AD735, the Mexican smallpox plague of 1519, the massive influenza plague of 1616, which took an estimated 50% of more, of the local populations in Europe, and North America, the Russian cholera epidemic of 1846, the worldwide flu pandemic of 1889, and of course the infamous Spanish flu of 1918, which took out an estimated 20-100 million people, ports were locked down, and some isolation was done, but economies were never totally shut down. Makes one wonder what it truly going on. 

Looking into the future, one can only guess what it will look like. What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat? Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on.

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 500,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank?

There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world.

I was just in a meeting with Airbus.

 

They are not predicting commercial aircraft sales returning to normal levels until 2027.

 

That should tell you something about air travel and tourism in general.

[Bobydog]

9 hours ago, ourdon said:

Yeah, exactly.   What a brutal punishment 

 

Unfortunately the people behind this mess will never be held accountable. 

[Bobydog]

10 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Who wants to come to a country where everything is closed and the air quality is extremely poor?

Not me, I took my house off the market and cancelled my plans to retire in Thailand. 

[bwpage3]

2 hours ago, BestB said:

Bank than my company has been with for 12 years advised “ we do not lend or provide any line of credit to any business tourism related”

 

thanks for nothing after 12 years 

 

soft loans supposedly provided by the government during first lockdown through SME bank , sorry you do not have enough profit . Well doh, if we did , we would not be needing loans.

 

BOT said soft loans for all affected , SME could not care less, where did 40-50 billion baht of governing soft loans gone ?

In someone's pocket to buy houses in America, UK or Australia.

 

When Thailand completely hits the skids, none of these corrupt politicians will be around to live through their self created destruction. 

[Dagfinnur Traustason]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The Tourism Authority of Thailand are having to face reality

That´s totally impossible. No matter how much they are forced. You can´t make blind people see.

[fondue zoo]

It would have to be more than third, not to mention a considerable ripple effect outwards from the industry itself.

All the talk of a grand revival just around the bend only buys more time before having to start propping up the industry's employees and businesses, with

money that more than likely will never get approved by higher ups.

[ThailandRyan]

35 minutes ago, GeilGeilertzen said:

The real crisis haven’t come to the doorstep yet.  Just wait until 2022.  In 2023 the real cheap land deals and buildings can be bought. 
It’s over and it’s about time people understand it. 
 

The word hope is never a part of any business strategy.  Hope and prayers belong to church only and not in real life strategies. 

But, but, but, The BOT and the Finance minister say its all going well and not pear shaped, how else could the baht be flying high. Yes the other countries are doing poorly, but then why has my stock portfolio grown 22% and my cryptocurrency portfolio over 200%. Yet my poor fiat currency is taking a beating.  Must be a great country to have a booming economy like Thailand during negative tourism revenue and closing businesses with unemployment rampant.

[bwpage3]

4 hours ago, KhaoNiaw said:

Car dealerships is an interesting one. I have an ex-girlfriend that's been in car sales for about 3 years. She had one of her best ever months in December, which surprised me. Also in my area, the main craft beer place with a big Thai clientele, was doing OK until the last round of restrictions. Not as good as before but busy weekends. My own daughter got laid off just after just starting a new job last year. She managed to find a couple of different temporary jobs in the food and hospitality business and has now ended up in a much better job than she was in before with a big company. I also know people in the tourism industry who are hurting but it seems quite localized and, outside of the tourism industry, a lot of businesses are coping for the moment. 

That is not even remotely true in any of the governments admissions, which we know are understated.

 

Ask yourself how well Thai Airways is coping? Or Thai Air Asia?

 

[elliss]

9 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

Unfortunately, it looks like a lot more will be going bust.

There is no immediate help coming from T.A.T. or the "government" to help the smaller businesses within the tourist industry.

 

       The tourist / hospitality  business industry .

      Is looked upon by the ruling regime , as being of no importance ..

[mr mr]

16 minutes ago, crobe said:

I agree with most of the posters on this thread - the mass tourism that we have seen in the past 5-10 years with cheap airline travel is not going to return quickly.

Not only are a lot of these cheap travel companies going bust, peoples expectations of having such holidays has been changed dramatically by this pandemic.

The first thing that will return will be business travel - meetings and conferences - which will be able to accommodate some of the newer restrictions, but still a lot of this will remain as "virtual" zoom meetings.

The fact is that around 70-75% of travel spend has disappeared in 2020 - and around the same amount of tourism businesses - that means the level of spending is equivalent to 30 years ago (1990) - think back to what Pattaya, Phuket and Samui looked like 30 years ago and that is the level of tourism that will be the starting point for any recovery.

These centers of tourism should not be just thinking about how they can attract the tourists again, they have to think about how they diversify the local economies away from tourism dependency.

 

 

 

great comment. ????

 

[Gandtee]

9 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

based on the need to look good in front of one's superiors and tow the party line

 

just like everything else in thailand

 

 

It brings to mind the days when messengers were executed if they delivered bad news. Perhaps this is why government officials only spout good news, true or not.????

[mr mr]

15 minutes ago, Bobydog said:

Not me, I took my house off the market and cancelled my plans to retire in Thailand. 

 

i plan on going home in about a month to put my house on the market. going to ride out the next couple years here until the world starts again in like 2023 or 2024.  

 

the covid has been a blessing on my house value. everyone is scrambling back home to get their hands on a place just like mine. countryside with land wood lot and well. 1 hour from major city and 20 minutes to town. i am open to offers via TV.

 

never let a crisis go to waste and all that.  

Edited January 23, 2021 by mr mr

[Bradmeister]

Regardless of the big tourist switch being turned on, No one is coming.

 

The millions of unemployed, the millions of people in financial debt, tens of thousands of parked airplanes, and the hassel of being exposed or subjected to more Immigration Visa scams/schemes? 

 

Now is the time to reform the draconian and antiquated laws. 

 

Go E-Government Now, before the percentages rise to 65 or 75% less tourism and less exports as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

[keysersoze276]

9 hours ago, bermondburi said:

Exactly. I'm based in Saudi most of the time. Take a PCR test before travelling. On arrival I have 8 hours to get to my home. At home I register my location on the government app. Selfisolate at home for 48 hours until I take a free test at a drive in government testing facility. Get a message on my phone the next day with the results. If it's negative I'm good to go anywhere. Infection rates have been stable for months now at around 100-200 cases a day since they opened the country up. It's only people living in the coconut shell that is thailand who believe the 14 day thing is the only way to go. It's not. There are other ways that work too. We just have to learn to live with this virus. 

I didn’t have my glasses on and I thought this was the USD to THB chart.

 

[moe666]

6 hours ago, Smilermike said:

Not only that . You have to now think of the retired foreigners living here. Many of which will return  to their origins or another country which are more motivated on attracting foreigners with more relaxed rules and prices.

I am a retired foreigner living here and I do not plan on leaving

[soi3eddie]

4 hours ago, James HKT said:

Assuming they were registered businesses the business department would have contact details to go with their registration. 

 

True but that would only apply to the bigger operations. Many small scale "mom and pop" or "sole trader" businesses would be unlikey to be registered, especially in early years of trade or with low turnover and no need to register for VAT Tax etc.