The "Game Changer" (that must come)...........

[AgMech Cowboy]

15 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Vaccines are big business, expect more pandemics and more deadly ones.

Only if the media and Bill Gates are involved. And, no, I don't think it's rubbish. Unless it's on the level of polio, small pox or, heaven forbid, the plague the politics and media will always have an ability to influence the severity (and amount of big business).

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, impulse said:

 

You're probably right, but I still contend it's a race between rolling out the vaccinations and total economic devastation.

 

 

Thailand has 70 million people, and whilst all 70 million people would not have to be vaccinated before borders can open, it's probably around 40 to 45 million of Thailand's population that will have to be vaccinated before borders can open.

 

For an example of a vaccination roll out model, let's say Thailand can vaccinate 100,000 Thai's a day, working 24/7, across the country, in various establishments set up for purpose. 

 

That's 700,000 Thai's vaccinated per week. 

 

I'll go half way of my estimate and say 42,500,000 Thai's will have to be vaccinated before boarders can open. 

 

42,500,000 / 700, 000 (per week) = 60 weeks before an amount of the Thai population will be vaccinated in order to allow boarders to open. 

 

Thailand may be able to vaccinate more than 100,000 Thai's a day.  We'll have to wait and see.  

 

 

 

 

[Nout]

On 2/5/2021 at 2:24 AM, Jingthing said:

Curb your enthusiasm. Much more likely things aren't back until 2024.

 

Yep three more years and it will be very different. People have become aware of their own fragility and have become more cautious.

[geisha]

A few airlines are studying some kind of vaccin pass, and IATA are full for it and I think it’ll all be possible in a few months. They have to save the millions of jobs. I for one think it’s a good idea and I’d be less afraid of travel if I know I won’t get the worse outcome of Covid.

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 2/5/2021 at 8:39 AM, Henryford said:

Did the flu jab eradicate flu? 'nuff said.

No, because the flu is a highly mutagenic virus with two major sub-families (types A & B) and multiple strains which are sufficiently different, even from year to year, that they require a new set of flu vaccines every year. Most flu vaccines contain antigens for three or even four different strains of influenza and each one of those vaccines is only effective if the strains that they think will be prevalent in the next flu season, turn out to be so.

 

Coronaviruses are much less mutagenic than flu and so far, SARS-CoV-2 still only exists in one main form and any variants are still covered (to a great extent) by the originally-produced vaccines.

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, jacko45k said:

They appear to have already thrown them under the bus. 

 

When covid eventually finishes, and governments around the world reflect on their performance, the Thai government will have presided over a low mortality rate here, whether from good luck or good management, but would have fallen dismally behind in providing for their citizens in a time of unprecedented crisis.   

 

Their lack of Duty of Care to the citizens is comparable to past African despots.  

[G Rex]

11 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

 

Coronaviruses are much less mutagenic than flu and so far, SARS-CoV-2 still only exists in one main form and any variants are still covered (to a great extent) by the originally-produced vaccines.

I am not sure where you are getting your information from - but Covid 19 IS mutating quickly - with the ‘European strain’ following the original Chinese virus. Now we are being challenged by the more contagious UK & South African strains , as well as the ‘Brazilian’ strain.  

The worry to vaccine developers is that these new strains or serotypes will not be afforded any protection by their vaccines.

The elephant in the room , of course , is that the human race will not be wiped out by this virus - whatever happens

 

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

It's up to Prayut, not the islands.

And I can't see him agreeing to that.

 

I am quite sure the governor would be pushing for it, and it would be Thailand's quickest and easiest way to attract some tourism and start generating revenue from it.  

 

Initially, from the first delivery, we may see a lot of the vaccine diverted to these islands.

[Rimmer]

Unattributed off topic post removed

[TaaSaparot]

6 hours ago, BritManToo said:

It's up to Prayut, not the islands.

 

Wrong.

 

Even Pattayas Mayor has said there is a budget available to vaccinate the local population.

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, geisha said:

A few airlines are studying some kind of vaccin pass, and IATA are full for it and I think it’ll all be possible in a few months. They have to save the millions of jobs. I for one think it’s a good idea and I’d be less afraid of travel if I know I won’t get the worse outcome of Covid.

 

Will that vaccine pass allow you entry into a country where the population has not been vaccinated yet?  If not, what good is your vaccine pass?  

[TaaSaparot]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

When covid eventually finishes, and governments around the world reflect on their performance, the Thai government will have presided over a low mortality rate here

 

So, Governments around the World have to wait for the end of the Pandemic to reflect, but the Thai Government can do it now?

[GroveHillWanderer]

22 hours ago, G Rex said:

I am not sure where you are getting your information from - but Covid 19 IS mutating quickly - with the ‘European strain’ following the original Chinese virus. Now we are being challenged by the more contagious UK & South African strains , as well as the ‘Brazilian’ strain.  

The worry to vaccine developers is that these new strains or serotypes will not be afforded any protection by their vaccines.

The elephant in the room , of course , is that the human race will not be wiped out by this virus - whatever happens

 

I'm getting my information from every major article published about SARS-CoV-2 variations and every virologist who's quoted therein.

 

They all point out how much less mutagenic this coronavirus is than other viruses, such as flu.

 

Here's just one example from an article on the Nature Magazine website: 

 

Quote

But sequencing data suggest that coronaviruses change more slowly than most other RNA viruses, probably because of a ‘proofreading’ enzyme that corrects potentially fatal copying mistakes. A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV

 

Google for any article about SARS-CoV-2 mutagenicity and your will find the same basic tenet expressed.

 

I've already mentioned that flu mutates so quickly that it requires new vaccines every single year (that's why flu shots are required yearly, not every several years).

 

These mutations cause actual new strains of flu (such as Influenza A H1N1, Influenza A H3N2, Influenza B Victoria & Influenza B Yamagata) each of which requires a different vaccine. There are dozens of different flu strains already known.

 

This new coronavirus so far has no new strains requiring a new vaccine, it only has variants that which are still susceptible to the current vaccines, to a greater or lesser extent.

Edited February 7, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[onebir]

15 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

This new coronavirus so far has no new strains requiring a new vaccine, it only has variants that which are still susceptible to the current vaccines, to a greater or lesser extent.

The line between a variant and a strain seems a bit ill-defined:

Quote

"A strain of a virus has distinct properties and a particular immune response. Then there's going to be lots and lots of variants which will be, in many cases, minor accumulations of mutations and different kind of genetic lines of that strain," Soucy said.

Soucy said a certain strain of virus is considered a variant when it has enough mutations to change a minor portion of its genetic code.

Presumably changing a "major portion" of it's genetic code makes it a new strain. But where's the line between minor and major?

 

And if a vaccine still has some, but reduced efficacy for a new variant, where's the line for requiring a new vaccine?

 

(It's possible to get an estimate by plugging that reduced efficacy etc into the epidemiological models, and seeing if the R0 is reduced below 1 at a plausible vaccination coverage. But an awful lot of estimates are go into that...)

[Nout]

On 2/5/2021 at 2:39 AM, RichardColeman said:

Personally - even though I will be vaccinated by end of April - I cannot see me getting back to the family until at least October / November.

 

I'd expect at that time to have to show evidence of vaccination only. though what that will be I have no clue.

 

I doubt all hoops travel will be released until mid 2022

 

 

Proof of vaccination? Fused toes and a wet jaw!.LOL

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, Nout said:

Proof of vaccination? Fused toes and a wet jaw!.LOL

...and of the 10, 000,000 plus vaccinated in the UK how many have this complaint?

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

So, Governments around the World have to wait for the end of the Pandemic to reflect, but the Thai Government can do it now?

 

Yes.  There will be inquiries, committees, hearings, investigations, commissions etc.  The WHO will also have some statistical input.  

 

Standard Operating Procedures will be developed / improved for the future.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Leaver

[swissie]

One factor has fallen a bit out of focus lately: The monetary support programs that have reached prohibitive levels. No country is able to sustain those "programs" much longer without unhinging the financial markets. (Including Thailand). My condoleszenses to future tax payers.
As it has become clear that the only remedy is mass-vaccinations, I expect the production of vaccines to increase exponentionally. No matter what it takes. One way or the other. Capitalism at work. It's imperativ that this happens. The international consensus that this MUST happen is growing fast.
Thailand specific: A third of the Thai Tourist Industry has gone bust already. The TAT suggests that it will take 3 years before the Thai Tourist Industry "is back". The question is: What will be left of the Thai Tourist Industry in 3 years?
==========================
The question: Should international travel for vaccinated folks be made possible soon? Regardless if vaccinated persons still can carry (and spread) the virus? (The jury is still out on this one).
A scenario: Airlines will only transport vaccinated passengers. Those folks will only stay at Hotels strictly reserved for vaccinated people. Those guests will only go to Bars and Restaurants reserved for vaccinated people. Preferrably, they will roam around in groups with a flag waving "guide" in front (like the chinese tour groups). They all will also wear a T-shirt, saying "I am a vacci-boy" and act as big spenders. The locals will enthusiastically welcome those "Vacci-Boys", not to say worship them. Like in the old days. How wonderful! I would like to be one of the first "vacci-boys".
Imagine, the ladies adressing you with a respectful "hello vacci-boy" instead of a lukewarm "hello sexy-man".
--------------------------
Some may detect some sarcasm/ironie in the above text but fact remains: Even under the best of circumstances it will take a long time before (let's say) at least 60% of the world population is vaccinated. The world economy can not wait that long. Period! "Creative Solutions" involving some sort of "vaccination-certificate" will have to take place. Within this context, the above mentioned "vacci-boys" concept may become reality faster than most of us think. As there is no alternative. As well as there is no alternative to a globally accelerated vaccination effort.
Cheers.

[Leaver]

20 minutes ago, swissie said:

Thailand specific: A third of the Thai Tourist Industry has gone bust already. The TAT suggests that it will take 3 years before the Thai Tourist Industry "is back". The question is: What will be left of the Thai Tourist Industry in 3 years?

 

What will be left, only a small percentage, but it can rebuild, and that will take years.  Many may not want to holiday here until the Thai tourism industry has rebuilt.  

 

22 minutes ago, swissie said:

The world economy can not wait that long. Period! "Creative Solutions" involving some sort of "vaccination-certificate" will have to take place.

 

As said in another post, if you were vaccinated tomorrow, and have a big vaccination certificate to prove so, what, exactly, does this do for you in relation to international travel?  

[TaaSaparot]

Getting sick of constantly hearing about Vaccination Certificates from people that clearly have not thought it through.

[TaaSaparot]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes.  There will be inquiries, committees, hearings, investigations, commissions etc.  The WHO will also have some statistical input.  

 

Standard Operating Procedures will be developed / improved for the future.

 

 

Not what I asked.

[Leaver]

19 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

Getting sick of constantly hearing about Vaccination Certificates from people that clearly have not thought it through.

 

Haven't you heard the latest news? 

 

Once you are vaccinated, and have a piece of paper to prove it, the borders of EVERY country open up to you.   ????

[Leaver]

21 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Not what I asked.

 

You didn't ask a question.  You made a statement.  

[TaaSaparot]

5 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

You didn't ask a question.  You made a statement.  

 

Nope .... you really need to start reading what is written before replying.

[swissie]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

What will be left, only a small percentage, but it can rebuild, and that will take years.  Many may not want to holiday here until the Thai tourism industry has rebuilt.  

 

 

As said in another post, if you were vaccinated tomorrow, and have a big vaccination certificate to prove so, what, exactly, does this do for you in relation to international travel?  

As a member of the "vacci-boys", I could travel to every country that accepts "vacci-boys". Plus every Hotel, Restaurant, Massage Parlor that only allowes entry to "vacci-boys".

 

In the short run it would seperate society into "vacci-boys" and "non vacci-boys". Encouraging the "non vacci-boys" to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Nothing overly painful, as the world is already divided into "haves" and "not haves". Among many other divisions.

 

PS: Got my second Biontech/Pfizer shot on Jan 19. I am therefore a certified "vacci-boy".
So, I may be a bit biased. But that doesn't change my outlook on things nor my recommended remedies.

[Leaver]

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

As a member of the "vacci-boys", I could travel to every country that accepts "vacci-boys". Plus every Hotel, Restaurant, Massage Parlor that only allowes entry to "vacci-boys".

 

Give it a try, and report back.  Try to book an air ticket and see how you go. 

 

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

Got my second Biontech/Pfizer shot on Jan 19. I am therefore a certified "vacci-boy".

 

You could have 10 shots of the vaccine. How does that get you on a plane and crossing international borders. 

 

Once again, with all respect, the common belief of 'I've now been vaccinated so I can travel" just isn't the reality, and it doesn't matter what piece of paper you have that proves you are vaccinated. 

 

You will have to wait for a large percentage of the population in the country you wish to visit have been vaccinated as well, and with Thailand having around 70 million people, that's going to take years, not months. 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Leaver

[swissie]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

Haven't you heard the latest news? 

 

Once you are vaccinated, and have a piece of paper to prove it, the borders of EVERY country open up to you.   ????

Not today, but in 2 to 3 Months very likely if not imperative. Otherwise we would have to quickly produce a vaccine that prevents the world economy from imploding.

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, swissie said:

Not today, but in 2 to 3 Months very likely if not imperative. Otherwise we would have to quickly produce a vaccine that prevents the world economy from imploding.

 

It's nearly been 1 year.  What government/s will care about a few more months?  

[cdemundo]

On 2/4/2021 at 5:39 PM, Henryford said:

Did the flu jab eradicate flu? 'nuff said.

True, but we might also ask "did the smallpox jab eradicate smallpox?".  

The smallpox jab has/had an efficacy of 95% which is similar to the mRNA vaccines.

So which experience is more predictive?  

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html

Looking at history of flu vaccines 60% was one of the highest and some years has been as low as 29%.

So the fact that flu has not been eradicated is not necessarily conclusively predictive.

We shall see, and I think your conclusion is the consensus among experts, so maybe COVID is here to stay.

 

 

[swissie]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

It's nearly been 1 year.  What government/s will care about a few more months?  

Hi Leaver, so far always interesting post within this thread coming from you. But let me elaborate some more:
Without decisive counter measures, as suggested by the author (= me!) it will take years, not months. No country (and it's current and future taxpayers) on this globe can shoulder this financial burden indefinitely.

Thankfully, the current generation is busy spending their time with "play-consoles" and extremely important facebook interchanges. May it last. Heaven forbid if they start some basic calculations concerning their own future lives.

-Forgive me for stressing the point of the already vaccinated folks. If the "vacci-boys" make up for 20% of the population, Airlines will start flying for those "select-people" again. Also will certain Tourist-Destinations "open-up" for those "select-people" simultainiously. Money and love rule the world. In this case it's reduced to "money". Especially in Thailand, where the state religion of Buddhism was replaced by "hard western currencies" a long time ago.

-Given all reasonable projections/possibilities, I still expect to be visiting Thailand in June/July this year. With or without a flag-carrier in front of me, identifying me as part of the fast growing number of "the vaccie-boys".

What's good for the gander is good for the goose. Or what was good for isolated "Chinese Group Tours" will have to be good enough for vaccinated "Farang Group Explorers". For starters.