Biden says challenging for U.S. to reach herd immunity by summer's end

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

 

Interesting to see the phrase "herd immunity" mentioned again, and seemingly all in agreement that it is neccerssary. Wonder what changed?

What changed?  We now have vaccines of proven effectiveness, and know that the resistance conferred by these vaccines lasts several months or more.  The vaccines also don't kill people.

 

The original call was to achieve herd immunity through unconstrained propagation of the virus.   It wasn't known if that would lead to meaningful resistance, but it was known that it would lead to millions of deaths.  Most people didn't think that was a good idea.

[RocketDog]

18 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

how can you have a delivery plan when labs are holding production for quality purposes? or can't face the demand?

 

Biden is going to be exposed to be worse than Trump when it comes to making "baseless" projections ????

Trump has already been exposed as "being worst" at virtually everything constructive that he's ever attempted including building walls, paying his  bills, international relations, personal relations, human relations, trump university, Healthcare reform, marriage, golf, real estate, recognition of reality, spoken mmmm written English, spelling, politics, on and on.

 

The only thing he has excelled at is rabble-rousing and attempted insurrection, and he ultimately failed at that by being a one term president with the lowest approval ratings in history and (count them) two impeachments under his size 68 belt. He will likely retain this questionable notoriety and infamous place in American history  for decades or centuries to come. Loser extraordinaire. 

 

Biden "going to be exposed" is negative conjecture; trump's woeful administration is permanently and irretrievably history and fact. 

 

I understand your desire to live in a fantasy future of Trump's return to his rightful throne. At least that's a safer topic than discussions of his presidential performance which is much harder to defend. 

 

 But again, please don't ask others to play a fantasy game of 'what if' where trump is a hero. Americans have scraped him off their heels and the foul stench is quickly dissipating. ????

[Sujo]

3 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

 

Interesting to see the phrase "herd immunity" mentioned again, and seemingly all in agreement that it is neccerssary. Wonder what changed?

Trump herd immunity from death.

Biden herd immunity from vaccine.

 

Get it?

[gamb00ler]

4 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

 

Interesting to see the phrase "herd immunity" mentioned again, and seemingly all in agreement that it is neccerssary. Wonder what changed?

Yes, the endpoint of the two different routes is the same.

People seem to prefer the waypoints do not include infection and death.

Edited February 9, 2021 by gamb00ler

[SunnyinBangrak]

39 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Trump herd immunity from death.

Biden herd immunity from vaccine.

 

Get it?

No. What you wrote is plain wrong. 

 

 1) Trump never said he is aiming for herd immunity from death. If I am mistaken pls feel free to correct.

 2)In scientific terms herd immunity comes from communities building resistance to the disease through a sufficient % having survived it. A dead patient does not aid herd immunity in any way, shape or form.

 

 

 

[ExpatOK]

The NFL has offered to help joe_i achieve herd immunity.

 

 

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

No. What you wrote is plain wrong. 

 

 1) Trump never said he is aiming for herd immunity from death. If I am mistaken pls feel free to correct.

 

Trump chose Scott Atlas to be his chief Covid advisor (while stifling Fauci)

 

""In April on the conservative Steve Deace Show, Atlas spoke in favor of allowing the virus to pass through the younger segments of the population, while trying to protect older Americans.

" 'We can allow a lot of people to get infected,' he said. 'Those who are not at risk to die or have a serious hospital-requiring illness, we should be fine with letting them get infected, generating immunity on their own, and the more immunity in the community, the better we can eradicate the threat of the virus.' "

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/30/940376041/dr-scott-atlas-special-coronavirus-adviser-to-trump-resigns

 

"Atlas, the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center and a fellow at Stanford’s conservative Hoover Institution, has no expertise in public health or infectious diseases.

Atlas joined the White House Coronavirus Task Force in August amid ongoing tensions between the president and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious diseases expert, and Dr. Deborah Birx, the task force's coordinator.

Many public health experts questioned Trump’s decision to bring Atlas, whose expertise is in magnetic resonance imaging and whose research has focused on factors impacting health care policy, on as a coronavirus adviser."

https://www.fox29.com/news/dr-scott-atlas-trumps-coronavirus-adviser-resigns

 

"This thinking has proved reckless. Sweden, a country that pursued a more permissive strategy when it came to social distancing, has a much higher death rate than fellow Scandinavian countries."

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22202758/herd-immunity-natural-infection-worst-idea-of-2020

Edited February 9, 2021 by placeholder

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

 

 2)In scientific terms herd immunity comes from communities building resistance to the disease through a sufficient % having survived it. A dead patient does not aid herd immunity in any way, shape or form.

And your point is?

[Jeffr2]

13 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

No. What you wrote is plain wrong. 

 

 1) Trump never said he is aiming for herd immunity from death. If I am mistaken pls feel free to correct.

 2)In scientific terms herd immunity comes from communities building resistance to the disease through a sufficient % having survived it. A dead patient does not aid herd immunity in any way, shape or form.

 

 

 

Why are you trying to support Trump? Your arguments make no sense. You should get a better source for your news.

 

Trump denied the virus from day one. And did everything he could to keep science out of the solution. He's 100% responsible for many of the covid deaths. No denying that.

[SunnyinBangrak]

22 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

 

 

Trump denied the virus from day one. 

Anything to back up that (false) assertion?

 

[cormanr7]

There won't be herd immunity in the US or elsewhere when a large fraction of the population (age below 16-18, antivaxxers, etc) will not be vaccinated. It might theoretically be possible if a high percentage of those not vaccinated has had COVID and is immune- which remains a controversial point-. Even when vaccines are eventually approved for younger people it won't be enough. Based on present info, vaccination does reduce transmission but only to a certain extent. Then there are new variants that spread faster, may evade the immune response, etc. The duration of immunity either acquired either naturally or via vaccination is another moot point.

Rather than a tool to  achieve herd immunity, COVID vaccines will more resemble flu vaccines. They can be useful in reducing hospitalization, severe disease and death. And maybe regular (yearly, every two years,....?) revaccination will be required. COVID will not magically disappear but -at least initially- in combination with other measures such as mask wearing, limiting large gatherings, etc- it can be brought down to lower and manageable levels. Maybe.   

[Jeffr2]

On 2/10/2021 at 7:01 AM, SunnyinBangrak said:

Anything to back up that (false) assertion?

 

100 different sources of news. You should try Google. And seriously, get a better source for your news.

[mtls2005]

On 2/8/2021 at 3:46 PM, ukrules said:

He's kind of right, it's not 'difficult' - it's impossible in a country that size. It will take longer.

 

I think it's called "Apirational Leadership". Given the last four years I can understand that you're a bit lost.

 

JFK, September 12, 1962

 

"We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too."

 

 

God knows what you would have said on Sep. 13, 1962?

 

 

 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

 

In terms of herd immunity it is fair to say [Trump's] actions indicated he had strong leanings in that direction such as his approach to masks, lockdowns and other preventative behaviour. He put Scott Atlas and Paul Alexander in senior appointments who both had pushed for herd immunity.

 

I think it's fair to say that Trump, though not denying the virus itself, did constantly deny and downplay the seriousness of it, even though his interviews with Bob Woodward during the first part of 2020, showed he knew better. That had huge implications for how the virus played out in the States.

 

In my opinion Trump can take some credit for approving of throwing money towards one vaccine treatment but otherwise his approach was appalling. Trump had his first real emergency of his presidency and he failed to take control.

Edited February 12, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[Rimmer]

Some off topic and troll posts also replies have been removed, please stick to the topic:

 

Biden says challenging for U.S. to reach herd immunity by summer's end

[placeholder]

11 hours ago, cormanr7 said:

There won't be herd immunity in the US or elsewhere when a large fraction of the population (age below 16-18, antivaxxers, etc) will not be vaccinated. It might theoretically be possible if a high percentage of those not vaccinated has had COVID and is immune- which remains a controversial point-. Even when vaccines are eventually approved for younger people it won't be enough. Based on present info, vaccination does reduce transmission but only to a certain extent. Then there are new variants that spread faster, may evade the immune response, etc. The duration of immunity either acquired either naturally or via vaccination is another moot point.

Rather than a tool to  achieve herd immunity, COVID vaccines will more resemble flu vaccines. They can be useful in reducing hospitalization, severe disease and death. And maybe regular (yearly, every two years,....?) revaccination will be required. COVID will not magically disappear but -at least initially- in combination with other measures such as mask wearing, limiting large gatherings, etc- it can be brought down to lower and manageable levels. Maybe.   

And what percentage would that be? Define a large percentage with an actual number.

[Scott]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

And what percentage would that be? Define a large percentage with an actual number.

That is probably not completely possible:

The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

 

We really don't have a lot of experience with this virus and the variants that are cropping up.

 

[sirineou]

10 minutes ago, Scott said:

That is probably not completely possible:

The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

 

We really don't have a lot of experience with this virus and the variants that are cropping up.

 

Don't forget all the people that have been infected and recovered. Here in Florida we had 1.8 million infections, and a population of 21 million , if we are to ignore visitors , that's one infection  per  11.6 people. that's about 9% if I did my math right .   The way we are going that percentage will increase substantially ny summer. 

I hope not. 

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, Scott said:

That is probably not completely possible:

The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

 

We really don't have a lot of experience with this virus and the variants that are cropping up.

 

I agree. Which is why it's a dubious claim that not a high enough percentage will get vaccinated for herd immunity to kick in.

[cormanr7]

11 hours ago, placeholder said:

And what percentage would that be? Define a large percentage with an actual number.

If you want data you can look at Youyang Gu's website in the 'path to herd immunity' section, 3rd figure

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/#assumptions. This is obviously just one personal interpretation. It shows immunity acquired either 'naturally' (by having had COVID, at Jan 15 estimated at 26% of the population) or via vaccination with a further overlapping category (prior COVID infection followed by vaccination). A vaccine effectiveness of 85% is assumed which based on recent Israeli data may just be possible but is probably rather optimistic. Overall, in his model immunity reaches just 73%, probably too low for herd immunity.  Any decrease in vaccine effectiveness will lower this figure.

When it comes to measles: yes, this has very high R and hence a high herd immunity threshold. However, vaccination is compulsory for children. Furthermore, vaccines are highly effective with ca 93 and 97% protection after first and second shot. These factors do not apply to COVID vaccines.

  

[thaibeachlovers]

On 2/8/2021 at 11:54 AM, webfact said:

President Joe Biden said that it will be difficult for the United States to reach herd immunity, at least 75% of the population inoculated against the coronavirus, by the end of this summer.

Sooooo, he's not going to do any better than Trump would have done then 5555555555555

[Mama Noodle]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, he's not going to do any better than Trump would have done then 5555555555555

 

Funny isnt it? Its like when Biden was saying he was gonna vaccinate "100 million people in 100 days" and the left was hyperventilating about how amazing that is, yet the USA was already vaccinating an average of a million people a day at the time, before he even took office. 

 

Of course hes not going to do any better LOL 

[billd766]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, he's not going to do any better than Trump would have done then 5555555555555

But you don't know that at all. He has done more than Trump did in his first month and he has another 47 to go.

 

Come back at the mid point of his term and then compare Trump with Biden,

[heybruce]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, he's not going to do any better than Trump would have done then 5555555555555

 

2 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Funny isnt it? Its like when Biden was saying he was gonna vaccinate "100 million people in 100 days" and the left was hyperventilating about how amazing that is, yet the USA was already vaccinating an average of a million people a day at the time, before he even took office. 

 

Of course hes not going to do any better LOL 

What, in Trump's long, dismal record of dealing with Covid 19, leads you to think things would be better with Trump in charge?

 

Trump has a long history of over-promising, under-delivering, and disavowing all responsibility for his failures.  The health care plan promised four years ago is a good example.  You seem to have conveniently forgotten this.

 

On Covid:

 

Feb 24, 2020:  "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA" 

 

Fef 26, 2020:  "within a couple days is going to be down close to zero"

 

Mar 13, 2020:  "We have 40 people right now. ... And one of the reasons we have 40 and others have — and, again, that number is going up, just so you understand. And a number of cases, which are very small, relatively speaking — it's going up. But we've done a great job because we acted quickly."   https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

 

And here's a great one:

 

"President Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday for the first time that deaths in the United States from coronavirus could reach 100,000 or more, adding that if the death toll stays at or below 100,000, "we all together have done a very good job.""  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html

 

Clearly Trump did a terrible job.

 

Perhaps Joe Biden won the election because the majority of voters were tired of a habitual liar blowing smoke up their...   

 

Perhaps the majority of voters wanted a President who would treat them like adults and be honest with them.

 

 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

49 minutes ago, heybruce said:

 

What, in Trump's long, dismal record of dealing with Covid 19, leads you to think things would be better with Trump in charge?

 

Trump has a long history of over-promising, under-delivering, and disavowing all responsibility for his failures.  The health care plan promised four years ago is a good example.  You seem to have conveniently forgotten this.

 

On Covid:

 

Feb 24, 2020:  "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA" 

 

Fef 26, 2020:  "within a couple days is going to be down close to zero"

 

Mar 13, 2020:  "We have 40 people right now. ... And one of the reasons we have 40 and others have — and, again, that number is going up, just so you understand. And a number of cases, which are very small, relatively speaking — it's going up. But we've done a great job because we acted quickly."   https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

 

And here's a great one:

 

"President Donald Trump acknowledged Sunday for the first time that deaths in the United States from coronavirus could reach 100,000 or more, adding that if the death toll stays at or below 100,000, "we all together have done a very good job.""  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html

 

Clearly Trump did a terrible job.

 

Perhaps Joe Biden won the election because the majority of voters were tired of a habitual liar blowing smoke up their...   

 

Perhaps the majority of voters wanted a President who would treat them like adults and be honest with them.

 

 

 

 

Blame Pence then. Trump put him in charge of the corona task force.

Why do you blame Trump for everything, even when one man can't do everything himself?

[Sujo]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, he's not going to do any better than Trump would have done then 5555555555555

Im not a trump hater but...

 

Do you know the difference between herd immunity through death and herd immunity through vaccine?

 

Im sure you do, so in that regard yes he will do much better. Of course it also depends on the idiots that support trump getting with reality to wear a mask and social distance until that immunity is reached.

 

One should never underestimate the uneducated.

[Sujo]

6 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Blame Pence then. Trump put him in charge of the corona task force.

Why do you blame Trump for everything, even when one man can't do everything himself?

Who put pence in charge. Only the best people.

 

Perhaps a person with a brain would have fauci in charge and then actually follow the expert instead of a politician.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Sujo

[Sujo]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Blame Pence then. Trump put him in charge of the corona task force.

Why do you blame Trump for everything, even when one man can't do everything himself?

So you wont be blaming biden for anything then.

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Blame Pence then. Trump put him in charge of the corona task force.

Why do you blame Trump for everything, even when one man can't do everything himself?

Buddha weep to see your devotion raw. The problem is not that Trump can't do everything but that he did nothing which see record infections and deaths. The task force was hijacked by Trump and non existence for much of time leading to Jan 6. 

[Sujo]

3 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Funny isnt it? Its like when Biden was saying he was gonna vaccinate "100 million people in 100 days" and the left was hyperventilating about how amazing that is, yet the USA was already vaccinating an average of a million people a day at the time, before he even took office. 

 

Of course hes not going to do any better LOL 

trump said 20 million vaccinated by jan 1. Only 3.5 mil vaccinated by jan 1.

 

And it wasnt an average of 1 mil per day.

 

Also he didnt do anything to reach any goal. The trump admin admitted its up to the states to vaccine. So trump reached no goal as he didnt do anything. The states did it themselves.