Thailand reports 789 new COVID-19 cases, 1 more death

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

113th reported cases and 134th for testing per million.

 

If they were 113th and say 10th for testing per million we would all be patting Thailand on the back.

 

But 134th for testing per million, less than Libya, namibia, Eswatini and Djibouti clearly shows that their position in the outbreak if defined by their amount of testing and not their control. To me anyway.

 

That's why I added in my comment, for whatever that statistic is worth. There clearly is some relationship between the level of testing done and the level of cases identified.

[Bangkokazy]

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, sungod said:

 

And all this is hidden from WHO and CDC who are embedded with MoPH right?

 

 

 

 

You can believe what you want, I have no reason to lie about it, and prior to my taking an absence from this form myself I had posted screen shots of the database showing you now needed a special password and access to get into it.  Take it for what you will, but as I said I have no reason to lie, as I lost 3 family members in the north to respiratory issues who were also never tested and died at home last February and March, I even posted about it way back then.  It is why I have been such a rabid anti government numbers believer along with others.  

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

113th reported cases and 134th for testing per million.

 

If they were 113th and say 10th for testing per million we would all be patting Thailand on the back.

 

But 134th for testing per million, less than Libya, namibia, Eswatini and Djibouti clearly shows that their position in the outbreak if defined by their amount of testing and not their control. To me anyway.

Testing per million is less relevant.

 

Testing per positive case is the recommend criteria. You want to keep the share of positive cases per test low. Look how Thailand excels.

 

Data from OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus search for testing.

 

 

Edited April 10, 2021 by rabas

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Have you noticed we haven't heard from him since?Is there a link?The last figure I remember was 3600 unknown viral pneumonia deaths early 2020 like March/April when the figures disappeared.

I had the links but they are now gone from my activity history.  There was another poster who found them as he had them saved offline and posted them this past February, but now he is no longer posting.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

19 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

What is the official recommendation on self-isolating now?

 

If you travel through Bangkok, are you told to self-isolate when you reach your destination? For how long? 

 

The rules about this relating to the Song Kran holidays have been less than clearly explained by the government. AFAICT, there are a number of upcountry provinces that are imposing various restrictions on RESIDENTS who come from BKK and four other surrounding provinces...

 

So, when you said "travel through Bangkok," it sorta made me think you don't live there. I think  they're basing the restrictions on where the traveler lives or has been staying in Thailand.

 

Just how exactly the various provinces are really going to be enforcing their rules over the holiday remains unclear at present. But there have been some reports, for example, of air travelers being required to go for COVID tests upon arriving at their destinations.

 

This below was from the government yesterday:

 

 

And here's the list of the various province details the government put out yesterday... YMMV.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/4156908637665852

 

Edited April 10, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

41 minutes ago, John Drake said:

How is Thailand doing in the world ranking these reports used to include at the bottom of the page? For some reason, that part of the story has disappeared.

 

Since you asked:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/284188306524413

 

[sungod]

8 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You can believe what you want, I have no reason to lie about it, and prior to my taking an absence from this form myself I had posted screen shots of the database showing you now needed a special password and access to get into it.  Take it for what you will, but as I said I have no reason to lie, as I lost 3 family members in the north to respiratory issues who were also never tested and died at home last February and March, I even posted about it way back then.  It is why I have been such a rabid anti government numbers believer along with others.  

I'm truly sorry for your losses,

 

However I will stick with with CDC and WHO working closely/embedded with the Thai MoPH and not hearsay on an expat forum with no links. If they cry foul then I'll accept it, in the meantime I'll admit the latest outbreak does look for serious than previous ones. With a largely compliment society (unlike the west) I think they will weather this one too.

[Walker88]

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

Testing per million is less relevant.

 

Testing per positive case is the recommend criteria. You want to keep the share of positive cases per test low. Look how Thailand excels.

 

Data from OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus search for testing.

 

 

 

I, too, like science. Sadly, belief in science is becoming less common as we enter Dark Age II.

Edited April 10, 2021 by onthedarkside
personal comment removed

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

I had the links but they are now gone from my activity history.  There was another poster who found them as he had them saved offline and posted them this past February, but now he is no longer posting.

I remember clearly the number and the poster.I also remember getting the classic covid symptoms but not being able (or much inclined) to test I can't prove that I've had it thus don't require vaxing or being restricted in travelling.If people were clever they might have encouraged testing and kept records for future references such as gaining a certificate/passport showing my status without making a big panicked fuss about it all,but no we are not that clever yet maybe one day? 

[Yorkshire Tea]

I also remember the posts about excess deaths due to viral pneumonia, and also the large drop in road deaths during the first "lockdown".

[Bkk Brian]

32 minutes ago, rabas said:

There's never been any evidence of excess deaths in Thailand, Reuters and and one other Western source reported no, or even negative excess deaths during Thailand's first 'peak'.

 

To demonstrate excess death, you must show an excess greater than the normal monthly variation over the last few years.  No one has shown this.

 

Our world in data has, this is the normal go to credible stats that media and you have used in the past. 

 

They take the 5 year average excess deaths in Thailand an as you can see there are the spikes that correspond to the outbreaks, percentages far higher than the official covid death count. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, sungod said:

I'm truly sorry for your losses,

 

However I will stick with with CDC and WHO working closely/embedded with the Thai MoPH and not hearsay on an expat forum with no links. If they cry foul then I'll accept it, in the meantime I'll admit the latest outbreak does look for serious than previous ones. With a largely compliment society (unlike the west) I think they will weather this one too.

They will likely weather this wave but I'm concerned about the erosion it will cause.The erosion of trust in the political system as well as erosion of face not to mention transparency.Did I mention that Thailand ranks 104th for transparency and corruption?Do you fair dinkum believe this Administrations figures?

[Guderian]

 

Bangkok had 185 new cases, Chiang Mai 168, Samut Prakan 75 and Chonburi 141 (though they'll be in tomorrow's total because of the weird way that Chonburi reports its numbers).

 

So Chonburi is now getting more cases in a single day than it had during the entire first wave a year ago, and yet people are flocking here for Songkran and, apart from bars being closed (but not bars that serve food, of course), there are no restrictions worth talking about. The Pattaya mayor, the Chonburi governor  and the entire CCSA seem to have lost interest. The strict lockdown worked the first time around, what are their plans now, hoping that sprinkling holy water on Buddha images during Songkran will get rid of the virus?

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

Not trying to bash Thailand.  But add a zero to that number.  Might be closer to reality.

I would say its possible to add 2 figures to that. The UK and most countries are well aware of the covid tests under reporting all cases by at least 50%. To get a truer handle on the real figure the UK publishes monthly infection surveys that show a more realist estimate of the figures.

 

So I think you are actually under estimating the true count here in Thailand

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/26march2021

[holy cow cm]

9 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I remember clearly the number and the poster.I also remember getting the classic covid symptoms but not being able (or much inclined) to test I can't prove that I've had it thus don't require vaxing or being restricted in travelling. If people were clever they might have encouraged testing and kept records for future references such as gaining a certificate/passport showing my status without making a big panicked fuss about it all,but no we are not that clever yet maybe one day? 

Yes back in early Feb 2020 I too had the odd no taste food, never ending runny nose, sweats and tired and some weird aches symptoms. Lasted over a week and a half. Never had anything like that so I am surely positive it was a positive. Also back in that time or after we started reading of many deaths but was stated due to respiratory or pneumonia and not CV-19 as we were told. Didn't buy it then and don't buy it now.  Smoke and mirrors. All we can do now is try to stay as safe as we can and hope our loved ones don't get it or if they do then don't succumb to it. What we should think contrary to media is that CV-19 and its UK variant are alive and jump spreading, which we should believe that it will over the holiday bounce bigger than it has in this country to date.

[rabas]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Rabas I would agree with you if I had not seen the MOPH data from all of the prior years as well as the first part of 2020 which were in a specific section of the MOPH data base.  As soon as it started to be disseminated out and about, and we were having discussion regarding this as well as a newspaper article was written (which has also now disappeared), MOPH locked up their statistics.   It is hard for folks to understand that there was an excess of deaths classified as Pneumonia and respiratory issue deaths, but there were, it is not something that I would lie about.

The only thing I see in your posts is honest concern.  I too am concerned. I don't disbelieve you but I'm not convinced your interpretations are correct.

 

I too was looking at data. I do know that the MOPH (and many other places) rewrote web pages to better accommodate the new pandemic information.  I don't know about excess 'pneumonia' deaths. I do know they vary globally with our without SARS-2.  You should look through old TV postings for that link.

 

In the mean time I will prove there where no excess deaths in Thailand.  Many global organizations collect such data so Thailand can't erase it.  This is a science paper about, what else?

 

Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

 

They clearly show on page 5 there was no excess death in Thailand. Look at the graph and the table.  They also show the required monthly variation for comparison I mentioned earlier.  Here is a snapshot.

 

NS means statistically not different from ZERO.  Red is covid.

 

 

2021.01.27.21250604v1.full.pdf

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

A convention center in Chiang Mai province is converted into a 280-bed field hospital in anticipation of coronavirus patients. Chiang Mai reported at least 195 confirmed cases since the new surge of infections was discovered.

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4217078194977747

 

Haven't seen an EN language version, as yet, of the province by province breakdown on today's new case counts. FYI, there have been some indications that the flow of information, including EN translations, may get more sparse during the Song Kran holiday period with some Thai govt staff and media folks off work.

 

[RichardColeman]

25 minutes ago, rabas said:

Testing per positive case is the recommend criteria. You want to keep the share of positive cases per test low. Look how Thailand excels.

I have no faith that Thailand is not stopping or limiting the release of numbers of infections. They seem to have flat lines on their worldometer infections, which to me indicates 'meddling' somewhere to keep it below a certain number. 17th to 28th March is basically a flatline between 128 and 135. Basically 12 days of the same numbers stand out to me as you would expect very highs and lows over 12 days, near the same in January. 

[FarFlungFalang]

12 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Yes back in early Feb 2020 I too had the odd no taste food, never ending runny nose, sweats and tired and some weird aches symptoms. Lasted over a week and a half. Never had anything like that so I am surely positive it was a positive. Also back in that time or after we started reading of many deaths but was stated due to respiratory or pneumonia and not CV-19 as we were told. Didn't buy it then and don't buy it now.  Smoke and mirrors. All we can do now is try to stay as safe as we can and hope our loved ones don't get it or if they do then don't succumb to it. What we should think contrary to media is that CV-19 and its UK variant are alive and jump spreading, which we should believe that it will over the holiday bounce bigger than it has in this country to date.

A simple easily accessible test would have tracked who had been infected as well as all the other benefits massive testing could have produced.If they did massive testing instead of lockdowns the economy could have been spared somewhat and the less vulnerable could go about living normally instead of this covid hell we are being forced into regardless of one's actual viral status.

Edited April 10, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[rabas]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Our world in data has, this is the normal go to credible stats that media and you have used in the past. 

 

They take the 5 year average excess deaths in Thailand an as you can see there are the spikes that correspond to the outbreaks, percentages far higher than the official covid death count. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

This is 'canned' graph data. See the study I just posted. Two problems here:

 

1. You  must show yearly variation. You can't average it out. How else do you know this year is statistically significant?  You don't. The last 4 years could be +50%, -50, +60%, -60 and so on. So what does a few % this year mean?

 

2. You must also account for rising population and ageing population (both Thai problems).

 

So, I believe the paper I posted which says zero excess deaths.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

MoPH chart showing how Thailand's daily CV local case numbers, excluding "imported" cases in quarantine, have spiraled over the past week, from 87 to 781 per day.

 

 

And their chart since mid December showing the trends in two separate types of cases tracked in the country -- the red line showing self-referred cases, and the tan bars showing cases identified thru government outreach. They put the two categories of data on top of each other rather than showing a total combining the two. The large tan bars spike in the middle of the chart was the Samut Sakhon outbreak where the government did a lot of outreach testing.

 

 

All part of today's briefing packet from the government running about 20 pages of slides.

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/303316124620052

 

 

Edited April 10, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[RichardColeman]

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

So, spikes of 12% excess deaths in December, 10% November and 8% in January ? Wonder what they will be blamed on. Based on all QTR deaths being even. if 500,000 Thais die of all causes each year or 125,000 in a qtr, that equates roughly to 12,500 excess deaths during covid. I am happy to hear reasons for the 4,000 extra deaths a month apart from covid if someone wishes to supply them to me.

[rabas]

10 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I have no faith that Thailand is not stopping or limiting the release of numbers of infections. They seem to have flat lines on their worldometer infections, which to me indicates 'meddling' somewhere to keep it below a certain number. 17th to 28th March is basically a flatline between 128 and 135. Basically 12 days of the same numbers stand out to me as you would expect very highs and lows over 12 days, near the same in January. 

Can you show the data? There are too many buttons and variables to guess. 

 

Claiming forgery in data of which you have no understanding how it is processed is risky business.

[holy cow cm]

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

A simple easily accessible test would have tracked who had been infected as well as all the other benefits massive testing could have produced.If on did massive testing instead of lockdowns the economy could have been spared somewhat and the less vulnerable could go about living normally instead of this covid hell we are being forced into regardless of one's actual viral status.

Info from the Ancient Masters was still being withheld to a point. After my symptoms I went to holiday in the Philippines for 4-5 days and then came back and went to Pattaya for 3 then luckily just back home to CM and then the brown stuff hit the fan and serious measures were put into effect. This new spread seems a little not under control. What symptoms did you have? I knew something was weird as no taste and constant running nose with aches adding in no energy. Just an odd array of combines symptoms. 

[HOAX]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

From the Thai Enquirer:

 

"The cluster at entertainment venues in Bangkok and surrounding provinces has led to 1,016 confirmed cases in 40 provinces between March 22 and April 9. Of that, 583 cases were found in Bangkok alone."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiEnquirer/posts/297398138414393

 

Google translate (image scan):

 

9 Number of people infected with cov1D-19 related to provincial entertainment venues 22 Mar-9 Apr 2011 (n = 1,016) Cha Thawang Khen Province 3 3 WUSTRYO 3 Chon Buri 70 23 BLICHE 3  3 5 45 2 f LIVE 6 2 7 18 2 8 16 29 2 10 11 2 11 10 2 Lua Province No. of infected cases No. of infections No. 1 Bangkok 583 21 Chaiyaphum 2 Samut Prakan 82 22 Nakhon Ratchasima Phuket 4 Prachuap Khiri Khan 49 24  Lopburi, Sa Kaeo 25, Phetchabun, Nonthaburi 34 26 Kanchanaburi Suphanburi 27 Chachoengsao Pathum Thani 28 Buriram 2 9 Udon Thani 15 Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Nakhon Pathom 30 Ratchaburi Chiang Mai 31 Lampang Samut Sakhon 32 Surat Thani 13 Khon Kaen 8 33 Loei 1 Nanans Coronavirus 2019 Ubon Ratchathani 34 Trat 15 Chumphon 35 Tak 16 Phitsanulok  36 Nan 17 Chanthaburi 37 Mahasarakham 1 18 Rayong 38 Yasothon 19 Chiang Rai 39 Samut Songkhram 20 Phetchaburi 40 Saraburi LIVE broadcast live from the Office of the Permanent Secretary of Public Health on April 10, 2021, Ministry of Public Health announced the situation of COVID 19 in the country / COVID 19 vaccine.  Coronavirus 2019 Disease Center 12 9 2 14 6 1 5 1 5 1 4 4 1 3 1 1

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

This is 'canned' graph data. See the study I just posted. Two problems here:

 

1. You  must show yearly variation. You can't average it out. How else do you know this year is statistically significant?  You don't. The last 4 years could be +50%, -50, +60%, -60 and so on. So what does a few % this year mean?

 

2. You must also account for rising population and ageing population (both Thai problems).

 

So, I believe the paper I posted which says zero excess deaths.

Please you asked for a 5 year average thats what you've got. These stats are recorded and collated via Oxford University, you're now adding criteria and wanting extra data to try and dispute it and which no stats have collated.

 

Thats enough for me, I gave you what you asked for as per your post.

[rott]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

559 to 789 is hardly exponential growth...and if hospital beds are running out it's because they put anyone testing positive in hospital even though 50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization. 

40% in a day and 400% in a week are substantial by any standard. Asymptomatic or otherwise. 

[rabas]

6 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

So, spikes of 12% excess deaths in December, 10% November and 8% in January ? Wonder what they will be blamed on. Based on all QTR deaths being even. if 500,000 Thais die of all causes each year or 125,000 in a qtr, that equates roughly to 12,500 excess deaths during covid. I am happy to hear reasons for the 4,000 extra deaths a month apart from covid if someone wishes to supply them to me.

Lol, and a dip during  peak infection and hospitalization?

Kindly read my comments on the requirement  for past monthly variation data.

[sheldoncollier]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

559 to 789 is hardly exponential growth...and if hospital beds are running out it's because they put anyone testing positive in hospital even though 50% of people are asymptomatic and 80% never need hospitalization. 

It is exponential growth. If it was the same amount every day, it was be linear, because it's larger today, it's exponential growth (aka, the R-value is greater than 1).