DCD says COVID-19 infection rise will ease in a month if prevention is strictly enforced

[webfact]

Sophon Iamsirsithavorn, DCD deputy director-general

 

New COVID infections are expected to fall to an average around 440 cases per day a month from now, but only if all the preventive measures, introduced by the Disease Control Department (DCD), are strictly enforced, said Dr. Sophon Iamsirsithavorn, DCD deputy director-general today (Sunday).

 

The prevention includes closure of all entertainment venues in 41 provinces, including Bangkok, for at least 14 days, everyone wearing face masks and observing social distancing, no crowds for any reason and working from home.

 

According to a study by the DCD, closure of night spots can reduce infections by 25%, masks and distancing by 30%, working from home 15% and eliminating crowds 15%.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/dcd-says-covid-19-infection-rise-will-ease-in-a-month-if-prevention-is-strictly-enforced/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-04-12

 

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[RichardColeman]

9 minutes ago, webfact said:

According to a study by the DCD, closure of night spots can reduce infections by 25%, masks and distancing by 30%, working from home 15% and eliminating crowds 15%.

Was going to say adequate free testing would be top of that % reduction list, but hey, that would just be daft farang supposition I guess.

[WHansen]

I get the feeling they are expecting large numbers if at around a 1000 a day now and still expecting 400 plus daily in a month.

I do hope that's an overestimation.

[smedly]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

New COVID infections are expected to fall to an average around 440 cases per day a month from now, but only if all the preventive measures, introduced by the Disease Control Department (DCD), are strictly enforced

 

does that include mass spread caused by interprovincial travel 

 

and how are you going to know the infection rate/spread when you don't do mass random testing ?

 

 

[faraday]

And widespread vaccination. Now.

 

????

[miamiman123]

Yesterday on my way home, there were large groups drinking and partying …. Is the government allowing these activities in light of the closure 

they seemed as oblivious to the closure as the government is to the party goers 

[crazykopite]

More BS from these clowns 

[vivananahuahin]

It is too late,in 10 days we will see the results,no comments.

[faraday]

Bookmarked for comment in one month.

 

However, I hope he's right.

 

Doubtful though, sadly.

[Rocking Robert]

Going to be interesting to see what the death rate does

[Fairynuff]

In my condo it’s always the foreigners who aren’t wearing a mask. In the streets around my area it’s the same. Just follow the rules <deleted>.

[chang1]

15 minutes ago, vivananahuahin said:

It is too late,in 10 days we will see the results,no comments.

I agree the UK variant spreads very quickly and should have been isolated as soon as it had been identified. Vaccines are the only way to stop it now as a Wuhan style national lockdown is not likely in Thailand. 

[chang1]

6 minutes ago, Rocking Robert said:

Going to be interesting to see what the death rate does

I think it is the same - one per thousand infected, trailing by 10 to 14 days. Of course if they don't test that formula can be used in reverse to estimate the infection rate - if the death rate figures are accurate. 

[Fromas]

Enforcement is too lax. The horse has bolted.

[wensiensheng]

Pretty vague advice. What constitutes a “crowd”? Five people? Ten people? A hundred?

[ftpjtm]

37 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

In my condo it’s always the foreigners who aren’t wearing a mask. In the streets around my area it’s the same. Just follow the rules <deleted>.

 

It's the opposite were I am. Definitely a higher percentage of farangs wearing masks than Thais. And big crowds of un-masked Thais partying along the beach last night. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by ftpjtm

[FritsSikkink]

Get these vaccines sorted instead of closing everything

[ftpjtm]

1 minute ago, FritsSikkink said:

Get these vaccines sorted instead of closing everything

Vaccines are months off in Thailand. 

[worrab]

"No crowds for any reason" but a Festival at our local temple in the village can still go ahead for 8 days from 10th to 18th April. Oh, and then there will be live music each night!

Be interesting to see how/if the figures escalate in the Bang Saphan District. 

[Xonax]

1 hour ago, chang1 said:

I agree the UK variant spreads very quickly and should have been isolated as soon as it had been identified. Vaccines are the only way to stop it now as a Wuhan style national lockdown is not likely in Thailand. 

Unfortunately the vaccines will NOT stop Covid, but only reduce hospitalisations and deaths. After all volunteers (maybe 60-70%) have been inoculated, we will still have to live with wearing masks in public, keep a high hygiene and practice social distancing. Anyone who believe that tourism and nightlife will ever reach the heights of past times, should have their head examined.

Edited April 12, 2021 by Xonax

[trainman34014]

5 hours ago, WHansen said:

I get the feeling they are expecting large numbers if at around a 1000 a day now and still expecting 400 plus daily in a month.

I do hope that's an overestimation.

Truth is they have no idea what numbers to expect; plucking numbers out of the air as usual.

[Kaopad999]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

According to a study by the DCD, closure of night spots can reduce infections by 25%, masks and distancing by 30%, working from home 15% and eliminating crowds 15%.

25% + 30% + 15% +15% = 85% safe 

 

[DLock]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The prevention includes closure of all entertainment venues in 41 provinces, including Bangkok, for at least 14 days, everyone wearing face masks and observing social distancing, no crowds for any reason and working from home.

 

You idiot.

 

Any plan that doesn't include the words "no Songkran travel, free COVID tests and 20million vaccines arrived today" is worthless.

 

Surprised you didn't include "washing hands regularly" as part of your world-class prevention plan.

 

Fail.

[maddermax]

Whilst it may not be the total answer to the pandemic, clearly vaccination of the population will significantly reduce the possible spread of the virus. So why hasn't the Government introduce it yet when most other countries have?

[jur]

Is 400 cases daily considered acceptable? Tourism is such an important source of revenue, why then do they not do it once, do it good? Pull out all the stops to get it done properly instead of all these patch work BS. Sigh.... “when will I see you again” our beloved Thailand. 

[DLock]

9 minutes ago, jur said:

Is 400 cases daily considered acceptable? Tourism is such an important source of revenue, why then do they not do it once, do it good? Pull out all the stops to get it done properly instead of all these patch work BS. Sigh.... “when will I see you again” our beloved Thailand. 

 

Given Thailand was at 967 cases yesterday, yes 400 would be more acceptable...

 

What will today bring?

 

I would guess around 1,400, but really depends on testing availability...and honest reporting.

[AussieinThaiJim]

“Was going to say adequate free testing would be top of that % reduction list, but hey, that would just be daft farang supposition I guess.”

What a load of crock!

Testing will only confirm who has it and who doesn’t.

 

Yes more testing would be a great idea but it’s Thailand and authorities seem to target only areas where the outbreak has happened.

[Baggy]

1 hour ago, worrab said:

"No crowds for any reason" but a Festival at our local temple in the village can still go ahead for 8 days from 10th to 18th April. Oh, and then there will be live music each night!

Be interesting to see how/if the figures escalate in the Bang Saphan District. 

No testing ,so no escalation, all good!

[Pilotman]

I have no idea how they can make such a prediction, neither do they have an idea. The decision to allow Song Kran in the face of the third wave was and is madness. A new lockdown is not that far away, or at least it should not be. 

[Stargeezr]

Hey it is Songkron season, just wait until 1 to 3 weeks from now when the covid numbers will sky rocket.

  With the variants in Thailand and the way the Thai gatherings seem to be, I would be surprised if the 3rd

wave will not be the biggest wave yet. Good Luck.

Geezer