Thailand reports 1,547 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Latest province by province new COVID case numbers from the Ministry of Public Health, along with the prior day's report for comparison purposes.

 

Compared to the prior day, the new case numbers are down in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Chonburi, but that could be at least in part related to many residents traveling back to outlying provinces for the Song Kran holidays.

 

The domestic daily totals below exclude so-called imported cases for each day found among international travelers in quarantine. The provinces below are listed in order ranked by the MoPH, which is based on their cumulative numbers of COVID cases thus far.

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157955761512050

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

For the latest day, Thailand also topped 600,000 cumulative COVID vaccination doses having been administered, but that remains under 1% of the country's population, one of the lowest vaccination rates in Asia.

A disgraceful failure by this government. 

[Bkk Brian]

Upward trend still on track at the moment. This flatline is almost identical to the previous one and could well be down to testing numbers

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

11 minutes ago, BookShe said:

Since cases are clearly coming down since yesterday, we should start talking about reopening. I heard rumors about TAT is working on some big announcement later today. Or tomorrow Or next month. Anyway. The point is that they are working on it. I feel excited already. 

 

Because of the general slowdown of everything over the Song Kran holidays (which effectively extend through the current weekend), I think we're not really going to see the shape of the post-holiday cases trend until, as another poster said above, everything gets back to normal business in the week ahead and thereafter.

 

I don't think Song Kran period numbers are any good trend of what's likely to come, one way or the other.

 

[sapson]

We are getting a daily release of the number of positive cases in each province but seems they dont have or release the matching numbers tested in each province, each lab or hospital must have a record of the daily tests they have conducted.

[Petey11]

3 minutes ago, sapson said:

We are getting a daily release of the number of positive cases in each province but seems they dont have or release the matching numbers tested in each province, each lab or hospital must have a record of the daily tests they have conducted.

And another thing is figures been released today are probably from tests carried out 4-5 days ago, maybe a week ago. When you look at some timelines released, the final dates of infected persons movements can be 4-5 before released, in some cases over a week.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The Ministry of Public Health also provided a chart comparing how the COVID case trends are faring in other selected countries:

 

[cocoonclub]

10 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

figures been released today are probably from tests carried out 4-5 days ago, maybe a week ago.

There will be a gap, of course, but I hope it’s not that many days. I got tested, together with a group of friends, the weekend of 9-11 April at different hospitals and drive-thru facilities. All of us had their results back within 1-2 days max. I think those who tested positive got it a bit earlier (1-1.5 days) because they were called by the hospitals whereas the negative ones were waiting and eventually called the hospital themselves. Not sure how efficient the reporting and consolidation chain from test to report works but I would hope it’s not several days. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by cocoonclub

[ParkerN]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Did they truly they were on top of this and the country was safe.

 

Yep. I believe they did. Thais are most famous for listening to other people unless it's how to swindle some more cash. (They're particularly good at nicking other people's IPR).

 

But the Thai government (soldiers) are a whole other story. Orders of magnitude other.

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by ParkerN

[ParkerN]

Just now, ParkerN said:

 

Yep. I believe they did. Thais are not famous for listening to other people unless it's how to swindle some more cash. (They're particularly good at nicking other people's IPR).

 

But the Thai government (soldiers) are a whole other story. Orders of magnitude other.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by ParkerN

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

40 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

And another thing is figures been released today are probably from tests carried out 4-5 days ago, maybe a week ago. When you look at some timelines released, the final dates of infected persons movements can be 4-5 before released, in some cases over a week.

 

Various people here keep  asking about the levels of COVID testing occurring in Thailand. With moderator Sheryl's help, we have located a current MoPH website that contains the testing data.

 

Here's an Excel file that shows the total volume of testing and the numbers of positive case daily dating back to January 2020. It gives some idea of the volume of testing that's been occurring. The highest daily number I saw in quickly scanning the file was 36,098 tests back on Jan. 11, 2021.

But I also think we need to be careful about drawing any positivity rate conclusions from the data, because it mentions that the test numbers include repeat tests.

 

The other caveat at the moment is the latest report data only covers thru early April, so thus far is missing most of the current third wave outbreak in April.

 

http://nextcloud.dmsc.moph.go.th/index.php/s/wbioWZAQfManokc

 

COVID Testing-no charts.xlsx

 

 

There's also a chart MoPH included in their briefing the other day that I believe indicates their network of testing labs has the capacity to do more than 80,000 COVID tests per day.

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ThailandRyan]

Well that does show then that testing has been limited, if most times 2 tests are required for verification of the positive result.  Sad really to know the truth.  However, it does show that they were and indeed are still testing people so I have been somewhat wrong with my testing and no testing Mantra.  My apologies.

Edited April 17, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[WHansen]

Thanks TGJ,Sheryl and all the others that give up their time to keep us all informed.

Great job

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well that does show then that testing has been limited, if most times 2 tests are required for verification of the positive result.  Sad really

 

I think folks have to be careful about drawing conclusions from the data, without knowing or understanding all the processes and policies involved.

 

That said, a couple things occur to me:

 

1. It's pretty clear from the above data that during the current pandemic, their actual daily testing for COVID never appears to have reached even 50% of their supposed lab capacity.

 

2. If I was going to look further, I imagine I'd look at the number of tests done daily on a per capita basis for comparison purposes, or even, daily testing capacity on a per capita basis compared to elsewhere.

 

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well that does show then that testing has been limited, if most times 2 tests are required for verification of the positive result.  Sad really to know the truth.  However, it does show that they were and indeed are still testing people so I have been somewhat wrong with my testing and no testing Mantra.  My apologies.

More actually, initial test to be found positive, second test to confirm or when entering hospital, third test to see when you no longer have it, possibly a fourth test before you leave hospital?

Edited April 17, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

More actually, initial test to be found positive, second test to confirm or when entering hospital, third test to see when you no longer have it, possibly a 4 test before you leave hospital?

And there you have it in a nutshell.  Not testing en-mass, but still testing.  Would more testing find more cases, I am sure it would.  Does this government want that in light of the accolades they have had showered upon them, No they don't.  If vaccination is the way forward and out of this mess, then they need to jump on the ball and get moving, as they are way behind places that could return tourism to the country as they truly want.  Double edged sword, and Damned if you do and Damned if you don't.  A clear and transparent picture and cohesiveness would be nice to see, as well as this government helping the people instead of themselves.  Makes me sad really.  

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Thai government is saying they expect to kick off their domestic vaccine campaign with their locally produced AstraZeneca version starting with 6 million doses in June followed by 10 million doses in July.

 

Because it's the AZ vaccine, each recipient will require two doses for full vaccination. That means those amounts are enough for 3 million residents in June and another 5 million residents in July, assuming the doses are delivered on schedule and in the promised quantities.

 

No public indication from the government thus far of where expats and other foreigners will fall in the official vaccine queue.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157955753447050

 

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Chiang Mai (140) Chonburi (99) and Prachuap Khiri Khan (58)."

The Missus showed me something in Thai on her phone this AM.

It was the cases in Pattaya, and they are widespread around the location from NaJomtien to Banglamung, and Siam Country Club to Hua Yai

Gonna be difficult to nail that kind of Virus spread down ( if at all )

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well that does show then that testing has been limited, if most times 2 tests are required for verification of the positive result.  Sad really to know the truth.  However, it does show that they were and indeed are still testing people so I have been somewhat wrong with my testing and no testing Mantra.  My apologies.

 

I think the data shows, and we already knew, they've never attempted any mass testing program, and instead have chosen to do targeted outreach testing when outbreak clusters surface.

 

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thai government is saying they expect to kick off their domestic vaccine campaign with their locally produced AstraZeneca version starting with 6 million doses in June followed by 10 million doses in July.

 

Because it's the AZ vaccine, each recipient will require two doses for full vaccination. That means those amounts are enough for 3 million residents in June and another 5 million residents in July, assuming the doses are delivered on schedule and in the promised quantities.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157955753447050

 

So about 1 year to vaccinate the entire population including the foreigners here.  Obviously Thailand will be unable to open up truly for at least another 6 to 8 months and only in limited areas.  Then you wonder how far you can go between the final initial 2nd shot and having a booster for any new variants.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

So about 1 year to vaccinate the entire population including the foreigners here.  Obviously Thailand will be unable to open up truly for at least another 6 to 8 months and only in limited areas.  Then you wonder how far you can go between the final initial 2nd shot and having a booster for any new variants.

 

One odd part I don't understand is... lately the government has been talking about their goal being to vaccinate SIXTY percent of the country's population in order to stop the virus by achieving herd immunity.

 

And yet, everything I've read in the medical/scientific literature seems to put the percent of immunity that's required at much higher levels depending on the local circumstances, but the numbers usually seem to be in the 70-80% range.  And I haven't heard any explanation of where the Thai government is getting their 60% target from.

 

[Marvin Hagler]

This is a worrying situation and hope all the very best for Thailand.

 

One thing I dont understand though is why they are saying that this outbreak started in an entertainment venue in Thonglor?

 

it seems impossible to me that this could of spread so far so quickly. 1,500 cases a day (conservatively) and now present in every province from an outbreak that started on 22nd March. Can we really believe it spread that far in just 26 days? And where did that first person get it from anyway?

 

Hioe we can get on top of this but I can’t help but feel this has been circulating a lot longer than just the 22nd March. This is probably an extension of the outbreak in December and January.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

This is a worrying situation and hope all the very best for Thailand.

 

One thing I dont understand though is why they are saying that this outbreak started in an entertainment venue in Thonglor?

 

it seems impossible to me that this could of spread so far so quickly. 1,500 cases a day (conservatively) and now present in every province from an outbreak that started on 22nd March. Can we really believe it spread that far in just 26 days? And where did that first person get it from anyway?

 

Hioe we can get on top of this but I can’t help but feel this has been circulating a lot longer than just the 22nd March. This is probably an extension of the outbreak in December and January.

 

The Thong Lo entertainment venues are being blamed by the government as the source of the current outbreak, so-called third wave, that begin in late March / early April.  Before that, daily new cases had been rolling along at pretty low levels. But then things literally began to explode, with the reported sources being various night club type places in the Thong Lo / Ekamai areas. And then spread by staff and patrons who traveled and worked elsewhere, furthering the spread to now every province in Thailand.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

One odd part I don't understand is... lately the government has been talking about their goal being to vaccinate SIXTY percent of the country's population in order to stop the virus by achieving herd immunity.

 

And yet, everything I've read in the medical/scientific literature seems to put the percent of immunity that's required at much higher levels depending on the local circumstances, but the numbers usually seem to be in the 70-80% range.  And I haven't heard any explanation of where the Thai government is getting their 60% target from.

 

80% is what I have been seeing and hearing is possibly needed, and this comes from my daughter the surgical Rn/PA, but then with the variants of the virus, how can we even achieve herd immunity.  Do we already have herd immunity for the common cold or the flu that circulates yearly, and if so is it something that continues changing in your body with the immunities growing and changing and producing more warrior white blood cells as we age thus allowing our bodies to adapt to the virus's.  Immune systems, funny things they are.  We are all different, no two alike unless your a twin and even then there are some subtle differences.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The current outbreak is also taking its toll on Thailand's doctors, nurses and other medical staff, as well as the services they can provide to the public. Latest example:

 

"At Khon Kaen provincial hospital, two general medical wards and one obstetric ward were closed temporarily, due to a shortage of staff, after 105 doctors, nurses and other medics were quarantined for 14 days after they were found to have been in close contact with an infected person."

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/1547-new-covid-19-cases-and-2-more-deaths-recorded-on-sunday/

 

There have been a number of reports from around the country of patients upfront not disclosing their known or suspected COVID status to medical workers, and then later when it comes out, those medical workers end up having to be quarantined. Not clear if that was the case in the Khon Kaen report above.

 

The MoPH on Saturday released some photos of its medical staff working amid the coronavirus pandemic. The photos are not related to the Khon Kaen case above.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Marvin Hagler]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The Thong Lo entertainment venues are being blamed by the government as the source of the current outbreak, so-called third wave, that begin in late March / early April.  Before that, daily new cases had been rolling along at pretty low levels. But then things literally began to explode, with the reported sources being various night club type places in the Thong Lo / Ekamai areas.

 

Thanks for this and all the other information. Yes I knew this was the situation but it still doesn’t really explain how this got so far into the community from one area/location. I wonder if they are trying to explain it this way in order to divert attention from the fact that they let it get out of control from the initial cases in January and February. Saves face a lot more to blame it on the nightlife venues.

[BookShe]

9 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

One thing I dont understand though is why they are saying that this outbreak started in an entertainment venue in Thonglor?

Why? Why, Why? There has to be a scapegoat to cover your incompetence. They can't use the same excuse all the time. Dirty farangs, check. Illegal immigrants, check. Entertainment venues, check. Hoteliers are getting ready.

[Marvin Hagler]

54 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Various people here keep  asking about the levels of COVID testing occurring in Thailand. With moderator Sheryl's help, we have located a current MoPH website that contains the testing data.

 

Here's an Excel file that shows the total volume of testing and the numbers of positive case daily dating back to January 2020. It gives some idea of the volume of testing that's been occurring. The highest daily number I saw in quickly scanning the file was 36,098 tests back on Jan. 11, 2021.

But I also think we need to be careful about drawing any positivity rate conclusions from the data, because it mentions that the test numbers include repeat tests.

 

The other caveat at the moment is the latest report data only covers thru early April, so thus far is missing most of the current third wave outbreak in April.

 

http://nextcloud.dmsc.moph.go.th/index.php/s/wbioWZAQfManokc

 

COVID Testing-no charts.xlsx 21.63 kB · 2 downloads

 

 

There's also a chart MoPH included in their briefing the other day that I believe indicates their network of testing labs has the capacity to do more than 80,000 COVID tests per day.

 

Thanks for the great information. I had been tracking tests per day from the “situation” tab of the English language version of the MOPH site. In those figures you need to subtract the previous days numbers from the overall tally to get the number is tests. The number shown there is vastly different to these numbers (about 5,000 tests per day but that only goes up to about 8 or 9 days ago). The information around testing seems unclear given these 2 vastly diffeeent sets of numbers presented by the same agency.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

 

"Hundreds waited at a Bangkok stadium to get free Covid-19 tests Saturday as a spiraling infection rate gripped Thailand, on a fourth consecutive day of more than 1,000 new cases.

 

At the stadium testing centre, health workers in full-body PPE shepherded people through a disinfection cabin, and directed them to wait in lines for the nasal swab.

 

The site, one of many testing centres across the city, has capacity to screen up to 3,000 people per day, for free under the social security program.

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/bangkok-virus-spike-sparks-alcohol-ban-venue-closures/

 

Separately, The Nation noted that the free testing at this site only is for participants in Thailand's Social Security employment system.

 

"On Saturday, state insurers – under Article 33, 39 and 40 of the Social Security Act – visited the Bangkok Youth Centre (Thai - Japan) for free Covid-19 testing provided by the government.

 

The service opened for registration on Friday, and Saturday was the first day of testing.

 

A total of 3,000 tests will be performed per day, 1,500 each in the morning and afternoon.

 

More information: https://sso.icntracking.com/icntracking/self_register.php

 

https://www.facebook.com/NationNews/posts/10157919660526937

Edited April 17, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Bkk Brian]

25 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

One odd part I don't understand is... lately the government has been talking about their goal being to vaccinate SIXTY percent of the country's population in order to stop the virus by achieving herd immunity.

 

And yet, everything I've read in the medical/scientific literature seems to put the percent of immunity that's required at much higher levels depending on the local circumstances, but the numbers usually seem to be in the 70-80% range.  And I haven't heard any explanation of where the Thai government is getting their 60% target from.

 

With Sinovac, good luck with that, the lowest efficacy rate of all vaccines currently available.