Thailand reports 1,390 new COVID-19 cases, 3 more deaths

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The team’s animal-testing phase has produced satisfactory results and to the delight of all Thais the vaccine will be given to volunteers around the end of April."

So they are moving up to the bigger animals for testing this MRNA vaccine, and ALL Thais are excited about this! Really, they are All excited to be a tester for the Thai vaccine.  Give me a break, who writes this stuff for them.  

[Paul DS]

14,000 in Hospital?  Seems a bit weird?  Even the Uk with all there problems have only 3,000?

[George Aylesham]

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Better results overall today compared to the 1,767 new cases reported Sunday, despite the three new deaths reported today, with only two provinces, Bangkok and Chiang Mai, reporting more than 100 new cases (yesterday's numbers in parentheses for comparison):

 

Bangkok -- 293 (down from 347)

Chiang Mai -- 197 (up from 164)

 

Selected Other provinces:

Chonburi -- 98 (down from 229)

Samut Prakan -- 82 (up from 64)

Surat Thani -- 42 -- (up from 38)

Ayutthaya -- 42 (up from 7)

Nonthaburi -- 39 (down from 100)

 

Nakhon Pathom -- 38 (up from 26)

Nakhon Ratchasima -- 35 (down from 51)

Petchburi -- 35 (up from 23)

Samut Sakhon -- 32 (up from 18)

Songkhla -- 32 (up from 25)

 

Prachuap Khiri Khan -- 23 (down from 66)

Udon Thani -- 23 (up from 15)

Rayong -- 19 (down from 35)

Phuket -- 18 (down from 25)

Khon Kaen -- 20 (up from 9)

Chiang Rai -- 17 (unchanged 17)

 

The dropoff in new cases reported Monday may have been influenced by Sunday being the last day of the long Song Kran holidays weekend. However, a government spokesman expressed optimism that the recent control measures/restrictions imposed by the government will lead to "a better situation" in the coming weeks.

 

 

The new COVID cases total the government reported Monday was the lowest daily total in the past five days.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/290630379213539

 

In Chiang Mai people seem to be locking themselves down and not waiting for the gov't to order them to do so. Let's hope that the instinctively sensible attitude of the population will soon result in lower transmission figures.

[Sheryl]

Small changes in numbers positive from one day to the next are pretty meaningless. Looking at weekly totals is better. Keep in mind that there will be periodic upward "blips" when active case finding is done in a cluster that yields many positives and that can sometimes be a one-off event.

 

I do not think we have yet seen the effects of Songkran travel, that will play out over the coming weeks/month or so. It will not necessarily be evident in the first set of people infected by  travellers given that so many infections are asymptomatic. More often it will only be after those people have infected others who then infected others etc that enough people are infected that cases start to be detected in a given location. Same was likely true in the Thonglor "wave" - the first infection in club goers may have long predated that cluster becoming visible. In fact, almost certainly did given how many infections were then found. (Ditto the Samut Sokhon seafood market).

 

And please do not chime in with "that proves that they need to be testing everyone in the whole country", this is simply impractical and not remotely indicated at the current level of the infection in Thailand.

The recent closures will take at least 2 weeks to have start having an impact

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, Paul DS said:

14,000 in Hospital?  Seems a bit weird?  Even the Uk with all there problems have only 3,000?

Paul, all covid positives regardless of whether asymptomatic or showing symptoms are hospitalized here in Thailand.  Not strange at all as all who have tested positive in the last few weeks are still in the hospital.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

New information released by the Ministry of Public Health on Monday shows the local number of COVID cases serious enough to require patients be placed on ventilators has more than doubled to 41 during the past four days.

 

Since last Friday, the country's number of people who had tested positive for COVID and thus were currently hospitalized in some manner rose from 10,461 on April 16 to 14,851 as of today, an increase of 42% over that four-day period.

 

Yet during those same four days, the number of COVID patients reported as being on ventilators rose from 16 to 41, an increase of 156%. (The subtotals in the charts below show the numbers of patients in traditional hospitals vs. those in alternate facilities).

 

April 16:

 

 

April 19:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/videos/205687097711601/

 

[BookShe]

2 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Small changes in numbers positive from one day to the next are pretty meaningless. Looking at weekly totals is better. Keep in mind that there will be periodic upward "blips" when active case finding is done in a cluster that yields many positives and that can sometimes be a one-off event.

 

I do not think we have yet seen the effects of Songkran travel, that will play out over the coming weeks/month or so. It will not necessarily be evident in the first set of people infected by  travellers given that so many infections are asymptomatic. More often it will only be after those people have infected others who then infected others etc that enough people are infected that cases start to be detected in a given location. Same was likely true in the Thonglor "wave" - the first infection in club goers may have long predated that cluster becoming visible. In fact, almost certainly did given how many infections were then found. (Ditto the Samut Sokhon seafood market).

 

And please do not chime in with "that proves that they need to be testing everyone in the whole country", this is simply impractical and not remotely indicated at the current level of the infection in Thailand.

The recent closures will take at least 2 weeks to have start having an impact

So true. There would be one important data which we never received in Thailand, which is the positivity rate. We have some total number of tests, but there are many people in this group have been tested sevaral times. Without that number, the daily positive cases are meaningless. Also meaningless is the argument whether it's exponential or not.  Until we get that figure we should concentrate on fatalities. Imho Thailand is doing OK in terms of that, as of today.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, Paul DS said:

14,000 in Hospital?  Seems a bit weird?  Even the Uk with all there problems have only 3,000?

 

Thailand has a government policy that requires anyone who tests positive for COVID to be hospitalized in some kind of facility, even if they're not showing or experiencing any particular symptoms. Most of the 14,000+ are said to have little or no symptoms, but the issue is, they still may be contagious and capable of spreading the virus to others.  So in effect, it's a kind of enforced quarantine.

 

 

 

[Yorkshire Tea]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Thailand has a government policy that requires anyone who tests positive for COVID to be hospitalized in some kind of facility, even if they're not showing or experiencing any particular symptoms. Most of the 14,000+ are said to have little or no symptoms, but the issue is, they still may be contagious and capable of spreading the virus to others.  So in effect, it's a kind of enforced quarantine.

 

 

 

 

The problem with this policy is that hospitals are refusing to test people coz they don't have beds for them, & people are not getting tested because they're afraid of being locked up with a load of sick people.  So how many positive cases go unchecked & continue to infect people?  May be more than those that refuse to self quarantine after testing positive without imprisonment.

[PEE TEE]

April 14th Koh Samui 83 cases ( Thaiger news ) no further news  to date 

[onthedarkside]

A conspiracy theory post and several ensuing replies have been removed.

 

[Sheryl]

39 minutes ago, BookShe said:

So true. There would be one important data which we never received in Thailand, which is the positivity rate. We have some total number of tests, but there are many people in this group have been tested sevaral times. Without that number, the daily positive cases are meaningless.

 

Positivity rate is always as a percentage of tests done irrespective of whether it is the individual's first test or not. Anywhere in the world.

 

The main use of it is to indicate whether or nto the scope of testing is wide/large enough.

 

 

[Sheryl]

42 minutes ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

 

The problem with this policy is that hospitals are refusing to test people coz they don't have beds for them, & people are not getting tested because they're afraid of being locked up with a load of sick people.  So how many positive cases go unchecked & continue to infect people?  May be more than those that refuse to self quarantine after testing positive without imprisonment.

 

Actually I do not have the impression that Thais are resisting testing for fear of being confined if positive. In fact they are flocking for tests and demand outstrips availability. Farang yes, they are very much put off by the idea of mandatory "hospitalization" (me included). But Thais seem to not only accept it but even want/expect it.

 

The problem of testing being limited due to lack of beds is true and being addressed but will take a few more days at least to resolve.  It is especially acute due to a different "demographic" being the center of this latest wave, they did not anticipate a major run on private hospitals for testing and hospitalization but that is what happened courtesy of the Thonglar contingent. And some of that demographic is not likely to  respond well to  mass/mobile  testing sites.

[metisdead]

Another post commenting on moderation has been removed. 

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

It was Sunday yesterday so .. a drop explained

Unfortunately we have noticed this where I am from too (every Sunday like clockwork).  

I do hope that the drop continues though.  

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

With the nation's COVID case counts rising and hospital beds filling up, Thai Ministry of Public Health officials on Monday, apparently for the first time publicly, broached the concept of allowing a limited portion of COVID positive cases to isolate at home.

 

In recent weeks, government and health officials have stood resolutely behind the government's policy of requiring every person testing positive for COVID to be hospitalized in some kind of facility, whether traditional hospital or alternate facilities like makeshift field hospitals or even medically supervised hotel rooms.

 

But during a televised briefing Monday afternoon, Ministry of Public Health officials presented a "concept" under which patients meeting a half dozen or so criteria might be allowed to isolate at home. Any such change in government policy would have to be vetted and approved at higher levels of government.

 

At the briefing, MoPH said home isolation could be an option for COVID positive patients who don't show any symptoms, are under the age of 40, live alone and promise to stay alone at home, are not overweight/obese and don't have other health problems that are considered risk factors for serious COVID disease.

 

The ministry officials presented the two following charts explaining their concept, including details of how health authorities might keep in touch with and continue regularly monitoring the state of those who might be in home isolation:

 

 

 

On the hospital vs home issue, the WHO Thailand issued a COVID status report for Thailand on Monday that included the following comment:

 

"The number of people with COVID-19 in Thailand (14,851) currently either receiving treatment or in isolation is significantly higher than at any time since the pandemic began. Admitting all individuals who test positive for COVID-19 to a healthcare facility (including a hospitel or field hospital), including those who have no symptoms, can help with the rapid identification of anyone whose clinical condition deteriorates, and also facilitates the strict application of measures for infection prevention and control.

 

However, if the number of COVID-19 cases being identified every day continues to exceed the number of people being discharged, the experience of other countries is that it may eventually become necessary to priortise hospital beds for people with greater need for supportive care or who have risk factors for severe disease."

 

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/searo/thailand/2021_04_19_eng_sitrep-173-covid19.pdf?sfvrsn=ccf21685_3

 

During the same briefing, MoPH officials presented a chart appearing to show that more than two-thirds of the hospital beds suitable for COVID cases were occupied as of Sunday night.

 

In recent days, there have been growing complaints from the Thai public about both difficulties in finding places to get tested for COVID, and then if positive, finding available hospital beds.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/videos/205687097711601/

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

With the nation's COVID case counts rising and hospital beds filling up, Thai Ministry of Public Health officials on Monday, apparently for the first time publicly, broached the concept of allowing a limited portion of COVID positive cases to isolate at home.

 

In recent weeks, government and health officials have stood resolutely behind the government's policy of requiring every person testing positive for COVID to be hospitalized in some kind of facility, whether traditional hospital or alternate facilities like makeshift field hospitals or even medically supervised hotel rooms.

 

But during a televised briefing Monday afternoon, Ministry of Public Health officials presented a "concept" under which patients meeting a half dozen or so criteria might be allowed to isolate at home. Any such change in government policy would have to be vetted and approved at higher levels of government.

 

At the briefing, MoPH said home isolation could be an option for COVID positive patients who don't show any symptoms, are under the age of 40, live alone and promise to stay alone at home, are not overweight/obese and don't have other health problems that are considered risk factors for serious COVID disease.

 

The ministry officials presented the two following charts explaining their concept, including details of how health authorities might keep in touch with and continue regularly monitoring the state of those who might be in home isolation:

 

 

 

 

One can only hope, but then the parameters are many.

[Rocking Robert]

With all the ex-pats in Thailand many of them old with pre-existing conditions I have yet to hear of a single one of them dying from COVID-19 I know many of you will not do this I’ll give a heads up to Thailand for doing such a damn good job controlling this pandemic.And that’s amazing for a country of 70 million people 104 deaths in 15 months

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Bloomberg news service also offered this sobering world news in an update today:

 

"More people around the world were diagnosed with the coronavirus during the past seven days than any other week since the virus emerged, topping 5.2 million globally, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The worst outbreaks are gaining speed in many countries that are ill-equipped to cope.

The data also showed a 12% increase in cases from a week earlier, throwing doubt on hopes that the end of the pandemic is in sight."

 

Cases pass 141 million; deaths exceed 3 million

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-18/u-s-passes-vaccine-milestone-aid-goes-to-ontario-virus-update

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Generally regarding issues like a photo posted here recently of a young woman staying in a COVID field hospital... I saw this in the news today:

 

"The Crime Suppression Division has also posted a warning on its Facebook page, stating that those who secretly take pictures or videos of other patients, and publish them on social media without the subject’s consent, can be prosecuted for invasion of personal privacy.

 

The post came after a female patient complained about a photo of her published on social media, which was taken without her consent.

 

According to the Computer Crime Act, those who publish photos of other patients in field hospitals on social media, which cause embarrassment or hold them up for ridicule, can be subject to three years in prison and/or a fine up to 200,000 baht or both."

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/dos-and-donts-in-field-hospitals/

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Rocking Robert said:

With all the ex-pats in Thailand many of them old with pre-existing conditions I have yet to hear of a single one of them dying from COVID-19 I know many of you will not do this I’ll give a heads up to Thailand for doing such a damn good job controlling this pandemic.And that’s amazing for a country of 70 million people 104 deaths in 15 months

You missed this 3

 

A 48-year-old Russian man in Pattaya, a 69-year-old Indian man, and a 69-year-old American man all died from COVID-19 as of Wednesday, according to the government’s taskforce. The center also reported 111 new cases of infection, putting the overall number at 2,369.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2020/04/08/3-foreigners-die-from-covid-19-in-thailand-pushing-death-toll-to-30/

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You missed this 3

 

A 48-year-old Russian man in Pattaya, a 69-year-old Indian man, and a 69-year-old American man all died from COVID-19 as of Wednesday, according to the government’s taskforce. The center also reported 111 new cases of infection, putting the overall number at 2,369.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2020/04/08/3-foreigners-die-from-covid-19-in-thailand-pushing-death-toll-to-30/

There have also been a few more if one would want to look back in the archives, but then he is just trying his best to keep up the belief he has that this government is being portrayed in a dim light by us forum posters.

Edited April 19, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

For those who may be interested, turns out the WHO (World Health Organization) Office in Thailand has been posting periodic updates and analyses of the COVID situation here in Thailand, and posting them on their website. The reports are available at the following website:

 

https://www.who.int/thailand/emergencies/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

 

[shortstop2]

8 hours ago, ETatBKK said:

shall we dance, absolutely NOT !

today is the first significant drop, hope this suggests a tipping point ! lets find the remedy or the magic, and keep it DOWN !

i hope so too but I think a 7 day moving average smoothes the noise out of data.   

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, shortstop2 said:

i hope so too but I think a 7 day moving average smoothes the noise out of data.   

Best to hold off on guessing and wait until the other shoe drops at the end of this week as testing has restarted with larger numbers it appears.

[onthedarkside]

A post with coronavirus misinformation has been removed, along with several ensuing replies.

 

[Dylan Jay]

8 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Some excellent resources just tweeted by Richard Barrow, look at the positive rate, shooting up! Top green line

 

 

 

It's not the green line. 

I've updated it to make it clearer.

It's the thick blue line. 

We don't yet know what the real positive rate is right now because the latest testing report hasn't been released (since the 4th April). 

You can perhaps use the other lines to guess what it might be but the Cases/PUI much higher than the real positive rate for sure.

 

 

 

[peter48]

Incredible figures when you think 1000s were dying every  day in January in places like America and UK and Spain and Italy etc. ICUs in towns  were jammed up and ambulances queuing around the bloc and medics both exhausted and often in tears. In Germany one of the most advanced nations with one of most  advanced healthcare on earth over 80,000 people have now passed away. So Thailand like Vietnam  doing well.  Advanced Japan is now at 8,610 deaths   

[NoComment]

The Chinese master plan is working