Could the 'Third Wave' be a statistical error?

[Kinnock]

Up front let me say I think it's inevitable case numbers will be steadily increasing due to COVID fatigue, limited vaccinations and new variants- but are we really having a Third Wave?

 

In another thread a poster showed a graph indicating that the % of tests returning a positive result has stayed about the same since the peak in the First Wave.  He also informed us that in Thailand test numbers are increased to keep pace with the numbers of positive results.

 

 

So here's a scenario:

 

Pre-Songkran the Government suggested we'd need to quarantine if visiting certain provinces, unless you have a negative test certificate.

 

Many people were planning travel, so the number of tests spiked.

 

A super-spreader event in Thong Lor added to the increase in test numbers.

 

As the number of COVID positive people in the community is stable, more tests means more positive results.

 

More positive results means more testing - and we have a classic feedback-loop.

 

So the reported cases are bound to increase, even if the actual number of cases stays at the same level.

 

Same with fatalities - more testing means more cases found.

 

And hospitals fill up as a positive test result means hospitalization.

 

I'm not advocating Trumpian theory here, and India shows that the pandemic is far from over - but is Thailand really in a 'Third Wave'?  

 

I think the above factors indicate that we don't really know.