14 days mandatory quarantine returns for all arrivals to Thailand from May

[mr_lob]

6 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The vaccine works buy lessening the symptoms, it does not stop the chances of infection... same as the flu jab.

Residents need to have both jabs to build up any kind of immunity to fight an infection.

Having 30% of locals not inoculated and invite in tourism without quarantine is asking for trouble.

!00% inoculated, then give it a go.

70% is a non-starter.

100% vaccinated? La la land! 

[Danderman123]

How about the flip side of this - will the government allow more Covid extensions for those on short term visas? 

[BKKBike09]

19 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

If that is the government's reasoning then they really should start mandating that all returning Thai nationals take a PCR test before travel. There are plenty of examples from Australia's rigid quarantine system of innocent folk getting one of the more transmissible variants from someone in a neighbouring room. If it can be caught that easily, then it's lunacy not to insist on PCR testing for all before a flight.

 

Going back to 14 days even for fully vaccinated arrivals is a knee-jerk reaction but one that plays well domestically. Meanwhile, covid rages in India and Bangladesh, which have lengthy porous borders with Myanmar, which in turn has lengthy porous borders with Thailand - and an abhorrent military regime that is causing thousands (if not more) to try and flee to Thailand, over and above the large numbers that already cross illegally to work.

 

The newspaper that shall not be named here reported on 30 April "Provincial authorities [in Kanchanaburi] convened an urgent meeting on Friday after more than 200 illegal Myanmar border crossers were caught in this western province in just four days ...".

 

But let's confine fully vaccinated arrivals to a hotel room for 14 days.

[richard_smith237]

20 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

If that is the government's reasoning then they really should start mandating that all returning Thai nationals take a PCR test before travel. 

 

Agreed. Everyone entering Thailand (whether Thai or not) should have to take a Covid-19 RT PCR test prior to boarding a flight. BUT, there maybe constitutional issues with Thailand rejecting entry to its citizens, hence no requirement for the test. That said, Thailand ‘could’ place the onus on the Airlines thus circumnavigating any constitutional issues. 

 

 

20 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

There are plenty of examples from Australia's rigid quarantine system of innocent folk getting one of the more transmissible variants from someone in a neighbouring room.

 

It would take a lot to convince me that the means of transmission could be isolated to hotel rooms when someone has just got off an international flight.

 

20 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

If it can be caught that easily, then it's lunacy not to insist on PCR testing for all before a flight.

 

Agreed - PCR testing should be mandatory on any international travel. 

 

 

20 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

Going back to 14 days even for fully vaccinated arrivals is a knee-jerk reaction but one that plays well domestically. Meanwhile, covid rages in India and Bangladesh, which have lengthy porous borders with Myanmar, which in turn has lengthy porous borders with Thailand - and an abhorrent military regime that is causing thousands (if not more) to try and flee to Thailand, over and above the large numbers that already cross illegally to work.

 

Agreed, but it does not mean other areas should be relaxed because another aspect of border control is comporimscied. Instead, Thailand needs to step up its patrols. 

 

 

A 10 day quarantine period is either sufficient or it isn’t. Is there new fear that variant B.1.167 can develop in a person 10 after coming into contact with someone carrying that variant ?

 

I agree that the reaction is ‘knee-jerk’... most of the reactions put in place have been knee-jerk. Its a shame, but this is the modern world we live in where misinformation and half truths mean any policies have to be simplified so that the media and dress them up for the public. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rabas]

20 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

If that is the government's reasoning then they really should start mandating that all returning Thai nationals take a PCR test before travel.

 

However,  no amount of PCR testing can prevent new variants from entering the country. Only a full 14 day quarantine. You can be infected up to 6 days before a flight and still test negative.

 

They recently caught the first killer Brazil P.1 variant in ASQ, a female traveller from France. Found on day 6.

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by rabas

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, mr_lob said:

100% vaccinated? La la land! 

In Thailand yes I agree it is.

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

 

 

 

They recently caught the first killer Brazil P.1 variant in ASQ, a female traveller from France. Found on day 6.

 

Is there a link to a news source?

[BKKBike09]

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

It would take a lot to convince me that the means of transmission could be isolated to hotel rooms when someone has just got off an international flight.

 

Genomic sequencing appears quite conclusive.

 

"Covid-19 appears to have jumped between neighbouring rooms in hotel quarantine in Sydney after seven cases of people arriving from different countries were revealed to have the same viral sequence. NSW Health said today that it had been notified on Friday that the returned travellers had the same viral sequence. The cases may have to be reclassified as locally acquired. The seven cases came from two family groups who arrived from different countries on different days. They stayed in adjacent rooms on the 12th floor of the Adina Apartments Hotel at Sydney’s Town Hall."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/17/nsw-covid-quarantine-viral-sequence-suggests-coronavirus-jumped-between-hotel-rooms

 

 

[BKKBike09]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

However,  no amount of PCR testing can prevent new variants from entering the country. Only a full 14 day quarantine. You can be infected up to 6 days before a flight and still test negative.

 

There will always be a risk if people are able to enter a country, no matter how they arrive. The key word being "always". A "full 14-day quarantine" will not prevent, absolutely, as you imply, the risk from new variants. I stand by my premise that regardless of whether 10-day, 14-day or 21-day, the risk of new and more transmissible variants being imported will always be heightened for as long as some returnees are not required to have a PCR test before flight.

 

[richard_smith237]

24 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

Genomic sequencing appears quite conclusive.

 

"Covid-19 appears to have jumped between neighbouring rooms in hotel quarantine in Sydney after seven cases of people arriving from different countries were revealed to have the same viral sequence. NSW Health said today that it had been notified on Friday that the returned travellers had the same viral sequence. The cases may have to be reclassified as locally acquired. The seven cases came from two family groups who arrived from different countries on different days. They stayed in adjacent rooms on the 12th floor of the Adina Apartments Hotel at Sydney’s Town Hall."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/17/nsw-covid-quarantine-viral-sequence-suggests-coronavirus-jumped-between-hotel-rooms

 

 

 

Good info.. thanks.

 

 

[rabas]

33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Is there a link to a news source?

It is scientific news and comes from Thailand's genome submissions to the international GISAID COVID-19 database. I do not know about Thai news.

 

Here is the database submission info :  

 

Pango Lineage

P.1 (version: 2021-04-21)

Host:	Human
Additional location information:	Travel history from France and detected at State Quarantine facility on day 6th after arrival at Suvarnbhumi Airport
Gender:	Female
Patient age:	28
Patient status:	unknown
Specimen source:	Nasopharyngeal swab and Throat swab

Collection date:	2021-04-05
SUbmission date:	2021-04-23

info from GISAID

 

General info on the P.1 strain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1

[rabas]

1 hour ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

There will always be a risk if people are able to enter a country, no matter how they arrive. The key word being "always". A "full 14-day quarantine" will not prevent, absolutely, as you imply, the risk from new variants. I stand by my premise that regardless of whether 10-day, 14-day or 21-day, the risk of new and more transmissible variants being imported will always be heightened for as long as some returnees are not required to have a PCR test before flight.

 

Everything has some effect, but lets compare the two actions independently, 14 day (or other length) quarantine, and tests before flight. Lets compare extremes to see which is essential.

 

a) Given sufficiently long quarantine, virtually all cases are found. This is well known and the stated purpose of Thailand's ASQ (see Prof. Yong).

 

b) Test everyone before flight. From the known incubation period,  all people infected less that 3 days prior to departure (i.e., after testing) will enter the country. And, a large portion of people infected up to 3 days before a PCR test (6 days pre departure) will also enter the country. That's a lot.

 

You may argue a little more here, a little less there, but it does not change the fact that Quarantine is designed to stop cases, particularity dangerous variants, from entering a county. Testing cannot stop them. 

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by rabas

[Danderman123]

Nobody wants to hear this, but, from a scientific perspective, a couple, if quarantining together, should quarantine twice as long as a single person. Because one of the two could get infected on the way to Thailand, but not infect the second person for some days.

[KhaoYai]

So that's it?  The long awaited reduction in quarantine and the area quarantine plans that were going to save Thailand's tourist industry and the economy in general, have lasted just one month - and in the case of area quarantine in Phuket, never even got off the ground?

 

Very hard to understand this government - to the best of my knoweldge, the recent outbreaks in Thailand have been caused by illegal border crossings, not by people who have spent 14, 10 or 7 days in quarantine.

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

So that's it?  The long awaited reduction in quarantine and the area quarantine plans that were going to save Thailand's tourist industry and the economy in general, have lasted just one month - and in the case of area quarantine in Phuket, never even got off the ground?

 

Very hard to understand this government - to the best of my knoweldge, the recent outbreaks in Thailand have been caused by illegal border crossings, not by people who have spent 14, 10 or 7 days in quarantine.

Malaysia just instituted a 14 day quarantine for all inbound passengers.

[kimamey]

12 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The vaccine works buy lessening the symptoms, it does not stop the chances of infection... same as the flu jab.

Residents need to have both jabs to build up any kind of immunity to fight an infection.

Having 30% of locals not inoculated and invite in tourism without quarantine is asking for trouble.

!00% inoculated, then give it a go.

70% is a non-starter.

There is some evidence that the vaccines currently available may reduce transmission although its too rattly to be certain. 100% vaccination is virtually impossible since some people aren't able to be vaccinated for various reasons so they rely on a certain proportion of vaccination to protect them. 

[elliss]

17 hours ago, Bkktodd said:

Oxymoron 29April

 

 thailand officials  now dont  believe vaccines work to ward off 

  

 

        Thai officials , are not alone on this one .

        Does anyone , belief Chinese vaccines work .

         Free for farlangs / Aliens ,  try sucking on the other Tit .

         Fyi , we are not all , stupid Aliens./farlangs ..

          However , that said ....

[elliss]

27 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

 

Very hard to understand this government - to the best of my knoweldge, the recent outbreaks in Thailand have been caused by illegal border crossings, not by people who have spent 14, 10 or 7 days in quarantine.

 

        Correct . 

         Along with a little help from  friends @ immi ..

          Nothing new ..

[Soikhaonoiken]

Mr PM,  how wrong you have got once again and again, Fully vaccinated people hold no threats to Thailand,  so why the quarantine,  its Thailand which is the threat to visitors, as covid is on the rampage and you haven't vaccinated your population..... 

[KhaoYai]

52 minutes ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Mr PM, 

Yes he is, he runs the country but in reality, he's not capable of running an ice cream stall.

 

He failed to lock down and prevent people from travelling home for Songkran when everyone was telling him to act.  Then, although he hasn't said as much, with this latest move it would appear he's playing the  'blame the foreigner' game again - probably hoping he strikes a chord with the public - trying to deflect criticism over his failures. He hasn't - my Mrs, without any prompting said 'why? the new infections are not coming from foreigners flying in' - she's livid and like growing numbers, wants him gone.........if only.

 

But, the man doesn't care - I thought the recent downturn in the economy had finally spurred him into action but I was wrong.  As long as his bank account and those of his cronies are OK he doesn't give a toss. Like so many of Thailand's 'elite', he has no idea what its like to be broke and have no way to feed your family.

 

Just one small example of how all this is affecting parts of the population that you'd never normally think about............................my wife's brother in law runs an outside catering and event hire business.  The lockdown last year devastated him but he just about managed to pull through.  Business was just starting to return but was very limited.  He had a smallish wedding reception booked for tomorrow - around 100 people. After spending cash that he didn't really have buying the food, today he got a phone call advising him the event couldn't go ahead.  The man was in tears - he's totally broke.  This is what's happening in the real world to ordinary Thai people every day.

 

Locking the country down when it wasn't necessary devastated many businesses.  Now failure to lock down when it was absolutely necessary is having the same effect.  How are ordinary people going to survive this?  I have no idea how my wife's brother in law has fed his family so far but the future for him is very bleak - the chances of him having much of anything left to be able to start again when its all over must surely be very slim? Multiply that by X million people!

 

We trust these people with our livelihoods but countless world leaders have got it very wrong.  Prayut is far from alone - Trump(USA), Bolsanaro (Brazil), Johnson (UK) to name just a few that have made a pigs ear of their response to the Pandemic oh, and the latest - Modi (India).  These people are playing with people's lives and livelihoods but treating the pandemic like its a political game.  Its not a bloody game guys, this is killing people and creating severe poverty both now and for the future - get a bloody grip!

Edited May 1, 2021 by KhaoYai

[AnnieSeek]

Friend just arrived the other day for 7 days. 

 

The only evidence he had to show he had the vaccine was his little card they gave him when he had the vaccine. Your name is written on manually with the date, batch number and what vaccine. He picked up one of these cards himself, and could have written anything on it himself. 

 

TOTAL DISGRACE and open to manipulation. Relieved they put an end to this, but if they are this slack with what evidence they require then they shouldn't do it. 

[Stargeezr]

My Thai relative in Bangkok is dying from cancer, and unfortunately for me, it will be impossible to get

there before his passing. My sister in law will have to go, and I hope that she will be able to get to see him

 as he is her husband.  COVID has certainly made life more complicated for all travelers, no matter what

their reasons are.  I will have had my 2nd shot of Pfizer by the Summer, So I am hoping that by November or

December the rules will be a bit more favorable.

Geezer

[DJBenz]

On 4/30/2021 at 1:04 PM, Osthos said:

 

Sure. COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca confirms 100% protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death in the primary analysis of Phase III trials

 

This one is specific to the AZ vaccine. The key points are:

- 100% prevention from hospitalisation.

- 70% protection after the first dose.

- 67% reduction in transmission of virus. 

 

The last stat shows that some vaccinated persons are still able transmit the virus if they are infected. 

 

23 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The vaccine works buy lessening the symptoms, it does not stop the chances of infection... same as the flu jab.

Residents need to have both jabs to build up any kind of immunity to fight an infection.

Having 30% of locals not inoculated and invite in tourism without quarantine is asking for trouble.

!00% inoculated, then give it a go.

70% is a non-starter.

Vaccine efficacy of 76-82% after second dose - that is the prevention of infection. If you’re not infected, you can’t transmit the virus. 
 

If you’re unlucky to be in the 18-24% of people who did get infected then you only have a 33% chance of transmitting the virus. In context, out of 1000 vaccinated people, 59-79 might be capable of passing on the infection. 
 

Note, these figures are for efficacy (measured during clinical trials) which is different from effectiveness (measured from real world data). Pfizer & Moderna have shown 90% effectiveness in real world studies at preventing infection. 
 

People really need to get off the “vaccines only stop you dying from COVID, they don’t stop you transmitting it” train. While that’s technically correct, it’s not giving the whole picture. And no vaccine is 100% effective (annual flu vaccines typically run at 50-60%) so what’s available for COVID is pretty damn good. Except maybe Sinovac, but that’s a whole other discussion. 

[rabas]

23 minutes ago, DJBenz said:

 

Vaccine efficacy of 76-82% after second dose - that is the prevention of infection. If you’re not infected, you can’t transmit the virus. 
 

If you’re unlucky to be in the 18-24% of people who did get infected then you only have a 33% chance of transmitting the virus. In context, out of 1000 vaccinated people, 59-79 might be capable of passing on the infection. 
 

Note, these figures are for efficacy (measured during clinical trials) which is different from effectiveness (measured from real world data). Pfizer & Moderna have shown 90% effectiveness in real world studies at preventing infection. 
 

People really need to get off the “vaccines only stop you dying from COVID, they don’t stop you transmitting it” train. While that’s technically correct, it’s not giving the whole picture. And no vaccine is 100% effective (annual flu vaccines typically run at 50-60%) so what’s available for COVID is pretty damn good. Except maybe Sinovac, but that’s a whole other discussion. 

 

Many confuse "does not stop all" with "does not stop any".  The correct statement is "stops most but not all". Better vaccines can prevent up to 80-90% of infections.  

 

Some of the misunderstanding comes from medical advice "you can still transmit", etc.  They mean "there is a small probability you can still be infected or transmit."

 

 

 

[Danderman123]

Here is a thought: instead of such a long quarantine for the vaccinated, how about requiring 2 negative PCR tests before departure, one a week before, and one 72 hours before?

 

Double testing would reduce the risk of a vaccinated person carrying the virus, unless they are infected within 72 hours of departure - and the risk of any vaccinated person being infected within any given 72 hour period is tiny.

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Many confuse "does not stop all" with "does not stop any".  The correct statement is "stops most but not all". Better vaccines can prevent up to 80-90% of infections.  

 

Some of the misunderstanding comes from medical advice "you can still transmit", etc.  They mean "there is a small probability you can still be infected or transmit."

 

 

 

I am unaware of any documented cases of a vaccinated person infecting others.

 

Note that a vaccinated person may be infected, but not be shedding the virus.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Danderman123

[hotchilli]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here is a thought: instead of such a long quarantine for the vaccinated, how about requiring 2 negative PCR tests before departure, one a week before, and one 72 hours before?

 

Double testing would reduce the risk of a vaccinated person carrying the virus, unless they are infected within 72 hours of departure - and the risk of any vaccinated person being infected within any given 72 hour period is tiny.

And what about the unlucky 30% of people in Thailand who are not going to get a vaccination?

 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

And what about the unlucky 30% of people in Thailand who are not going to get a vaccination?

 

Any Vaccinated Farang entering Thailand and going through quarantine is extremely unlikely to infect others. Even without vaccination, the percent of cases in Thailand transmitted by Farangs is 0.78%.

[hotchilli]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Any Vaccinated Farang entering Thailand and going through quarantine is extremely unlikely to infect others. Even without vaccination, the percent of cases in Thailand transmitted by Farangs is 0.78%.

The talk is to not quarantine foreigners entering Thailand.. as that is the biggest hurdle they want removed.

As for Thais/foreigners inside Thailand 30% walking around unprotected is not good enough.

[rabas]

12 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody wants to hear this, but, from a scientific perspective, a couple, if quarantining together, should quarantine twice as long as a single person. Because one of the two could get infected on the way to Thailand, but not infect the second person for some days.

 

Fascinating question. Are couples allowed to stay together? I assume you are right they would need longer quarantine.