Thailand reports 1,763 new coronavirus cases, 27 new deaths

[phills2k1]

90,000 people in Klong Tuey where they're afraid of a mass spread, yet they plan is to test only 1,000 per day.  How in the hell does that make ANY sense?

 

Unless of course they 1) don't want the numbers to jump like they know they will and 2) don't have the capacity to quarantine everyone. So of course, the virus will spread like wildfire there

 

Should be fun!

[gunderhill]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The famous Koh Lan in Chonburi will be closed to tourists from May 5 to 20 in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19, the Koh Lan community announced on Monday.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000513

 

AND

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/richardbarrowthailand/posts/324969962322607

 

 

Makes  no sense to me, I do all my  shopping at 3-4 am in the  morning when nobodys  about, either  that or 8 am Tesco when its  also deserted, never at weekends.

[anchadian]

 

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1389441052105351172

 

Richard Barrow 

 

@RichardBarrow

·

1m

 

Most deaths today were in Bangkok (8), followed by Nonthaburi (5), Lamphun (2) and Samut Prakan (2). Other provinces had 1 death each: Chonburi, Ubon Ratchathani, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Buriram, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Kamphaeng Phet, Chainat and Nan #Thailand

 

[Danderman123]

47 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

The 'songkran spike' has spread. The nature of this beast is to spread rapidlly. It's in the news. Maybe you just read the posts. "Steady as she goes..." means >600 people will die from covid this month.

Even if the epidemic were to completely stop tomorrow, deaths over the next 30 days will exceed 600.

 

Do you understand that deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks?

 

Where were you two weeks ago when the epidemic was indeed spreading, but deaths were very low?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Ministry of Public Health update on Tuesday showing Thailand now ranked 99th among all countries in terms of total COVID cases reported since the start of the pandemic, along with the second chart showing how Thailand has fared versus its regional Asian peer countries.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/318533439764987

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Danderman123]

21 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

90,000 people in Klong Tuey where they're afraid of a mass spread, yet they plan is to test only 1,000 per day.  How in the hell does that make ANY sense?

 

Unless of course they 1) don't want the numbers to jump like they know they will and 2) don't have the capacity to quarantine everyone. So of course, the virus will spread like wildfire there

 

Should be fun!

 

I guess it's time to have a discussion about testing.

 

There are 2 principal reasons for testing:

 

Random testing, so the authorities understand the positivity rate, necessary for decision making, and

 

Specific testing, where individuals are tested to determine if they are infected. This includes via the process of contact tracing, hospital intake (for people who are sick and present at the hospital) and people entering the country for quarantine.

 

Specific testing needs to be high enough to handle all those who are suspected of infection. The government does not want to turn away incoming tourists, for example, because of lack of testing sets. Or have symptomatic but untested individuals in the hospital.

 

For random testing, the minimum requirement is that the result be statistically valid. The authorities don't need to know that, as an example, the positivity rate in Chonburi is 4.000045%, when 4% is good enough. So,  thousands of tests in a small area are not required for random sampling.

 

What is happening here is that people want the authorities to go door to door in Klong Toey, but that think that such focused testing is random sampling, which it is isn't.  Before the authorities do specific testing in large numbers, they need to look at the random sample numbers to see if specific testing is warranted. You don't want to go door to door and waste test kits and labor for a population that has a 7% positivity rate. For a population of 100,000, that would be 93,000 wasted test kits plus the labor. Not smart.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Danderman123

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Even if the epidemic were to completely stop tomorrow, deaths over the next 30 days will exceed 600.

 

Do you understand that deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks?

 

Where were you two weeks ago when the epidemic was indeed spreading, but deaths were very low?

By "up to" do you mean the same day, 1 day, 2 days etc.? 

[anchadian]

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1389443744781377538

 

Richard Barrow 

 

@RichardBarrow

·

3m

 

 

There have now been 43,925 new cases since 1st April and 209 deaths. The number of people in serious condition are continuing to increase, which most likely means the number of deaths will keep increasing. Today 1,009 patients in serious condition and 311 on ventilators #Thailand

[Danderman123]

Just now, dinsdale said:

By "up to" do you mean the same day, 1 day, 2 days etc.? 

Death lag new infections by up to 3 weeks. Some people die the same day they are tested, some a few days later, others two weeks or 3 weeks after their initial test.

[anchadian]

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1389444511005216775

 

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

6m

 

 

Vaccinations in Thailand since 28th February 2021:

 

First dose - 1,106,071 people

 

Second dose - 392,546 people

 

Yesterday, 6,611 people received their first dose and 5,099 received their second dose. * The official population of #Thailand is 66,186,727

Edited May 4, 2021 by anchadian

[dabhand]

2 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

I remember every day Thailand news boasted they were 166 in the world for cases...sadly now #99 ????

 

On a per capita basis, Thailand are #181. Maybe a more reasonable comparison. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Edited May 4, 2021 by dabhand

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

"Only 0.59 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, with 1,106,071 (+6,611) people received the first dose, while 392,546 (+5,099) received the second dose."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4286589054693327

 

[JackSalesman]

"Yesterday, 6,611 people received their first dose and 5,099 received their second dose."

 

It will only take about 13 years give a take with at least 50 million people to be vaccinated and 10000 per day. So relax, this is going to be a long long holiday! ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Ministry of Public Health update today on provinces with the highest number of new COVID cases for the latest day. A government spokesman called Bangkok and its neighboring provinces of Samut Prakan and Nonthaburi as Thailand's current "hotspot" for new COVID cases.

 

 

And daily trends for Bangkok new COVID cases reported for the period April 28 to May 4 on the second line below. The first line shows the domestic total cases for Thailand (including Bangkok) during that period, with the far right column showing the total cases for each since the beginning of April:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/318531739765157/

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ExpatOilWorker]

13 minutes ago, anchadian said:

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1389443744781377538

 

Richard Barrow 

 

@RichardBarrow

·

3m

 

 

There have now been 43,925 new cases since 1st April and 209 deaths. The number of people in serious condition are continuing to increase, which most likely means the number of deaths will keep increasing. Today 1,009 patients in serious condition and 311 on ventilators #Thailand

Back when the US were having 100,000 hospitalized, death rate were 3,000 for a couple of weeks.

We are seeing the exact same 3% of critical ill mortality rate here.

From memory the US were having about 200-250,000 daily infections during that same period, so maybe the 2,000 reported in Thailand is actually in the right ballpark. The ratio sure seem to indicate so.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The latest data reported today by the Ministry of Public Health says Thailand now has a 0.42% case fatality rate (CFR) for the pandemic, a number that has been steadily rising with the new deaths, meaning 303 deaths (including the 27 new ones reported Tuesday) out of 72,788 total confirmed cases. That CFR remains comparatively lower than many other countries, including the U.S. and various in Europe.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/318531609765170/

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[anchadian]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/push-to-vaccinate-16-million-vulnerable-thais-suffers-early-setbacks/

Push to vaccinate 16 million vulnerable Thais suffers early setbacks

 

 

Only about 5 percent of Thailand’s vulnerable population have so far booked a free COVID-19 vaccination jab since the government’s appointment process was launched on Saturday.

 

The slow uptake is being blamed on two major factors: hiccups on the booking platform and reluctance to receive the jabs amid reports of undesirable side effects.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by onthedarkside
formatting

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

New COVID cases in Thailand by province on Tuesday as reported by the Ministry of Public Health. If a province is not listed below, that means it did not have any new cases for the latest day.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157992858307050

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

 

I guess it's time to have a discussion about testing.

 

There are 2 principal reasons for testing:

 

Random testing, so the authorities understand the positivity rate, necessary for decision making, and

 

Specific testing, where individuals are tested to determine if they are infected. This includes via the process of contact tracing, hospital intake (for people who are sick and present at the hospital) and people entering the country for quarantine.

 

Specific testing needs to be high enough to handle all those who are suspected of infection. The government does not want to turn away incoming tourists, for example, because of lack of testing sets. Or have symptomatic but untested individuals in the hospital.

 

For random testing, the minimum requirement is that the result be statistically valid. The authorities don't need to know that, as an example, the positivity rate in Chonburi is 4.000045%, when 4% is good enough. So,  thousands of tests in a small area are not required for random sampling.

 

What is happening here is that people want the authorities to go door to door in Klong Toey, but that think that such focused testing is random sampling, which it is isn't.  Before the authorities do specific testing in large numbers, they need to look at the random sample numbers to see if specific testing is warranted. You don't want to go door to door and waste test kits and labor for a population that has a 7% positivity rate. For a population of 100,000, that would be 93,000 wasted test kits plus the labor. Not smart.

 

Agreed with many points but let me clarify this 5% figure often quoted as the magic number to determine when you've done enough testing or can relax measures.

 

A 5% percent positive simply means that the level of coronavirus transmission, relative to the amount of testing, is low at this point in time only. It can change at any time if measures are relaxed to much. Especially with this variant. 

 

To further relax social restrictions and allow gatherings or meetings of people traveling from many different areas, it needs to be a much a lower threshold. This can only be achieved with continued high testing to determine how the spread is going over a long period of time.

 

Another point, the categories of testing that you refer to, ie random and specific. For clarity Thailand uses the following in its reporting and charts:

 

Proactive testing | Community Infections | Quarantine Arrivals from Flights

 

Proactive testing:- are the ones where they test in hotspots, clusters, suspected areas. 

 

Community Infections:- are mainly from hospital walk ins and contact tracing alerts.

 

Random testing is not something Thailand has be known for in the past although I wish it had. I think I read a couple of reports last year where a limited amount was done in a few areas. The lack of random testing has often been a bone of contention with many people last year including me.

 

Regardless currently Thailand is seeing some area's with 5% or less detection rate and some area's far higher, to get the spread under control high volume testing needs to increase and continue. Otherwise we'll be back to square one again.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

50 minutes ago, JackSalesman said:

"Yesterday, 6,611 people received their first dose and 5,099 received their second dose."

 

It will only take about 13 years give a take with at least 50 million people to be vaccinated and 10000 per day. So relax, this is going to be a long long holiday! ????

 

Those figures on current vaccination rates are admittedly very slow and small. But part of that is due to Thailand currently having a limited available supply of vaccine doses. That situation should change starting from June and onward when the country's own supply of locally produced AstraZeneca vaccine is supposed to become available.

 

That's when we and everyone else will find out whether Thailand is capable and prepared to mount a massive, nationwide vaccinations campaign.  They are SAYING they expect to have 70% or so of the country (50 million people) vaccinated by the end of the year. Time will tell...

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ourmanflint]

Even with this new massive cluster in Khlong Toei, Bangkoks numbers are down.

 

This is the power and magic of the covid czar in action

[Petey11]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

CCSA orders urgent vaccination for Klong Toei residents

...

“Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who chaired the CCSA meeting on Monday, ordered the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) to start the vaccination on Tuesday at two locations in Klong Toei: Tesco Lotus Rama IV and Klong Toei Witthaya School from 1pm,” said Aswin.

 

“We expect to vaccinate 1,000 people on the first day, and about 2,000-3,000 in the following days.”Aswin added that the BMA would also launch active testing in Klong Toei areas at up to 1,000 people per day until May 19.

 

“We expect to test up to 20,000 people living in Klong Toei from the estimated total of 90,000 people in the areas.”

 

(more)

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000502

 

Knee-jerk and clueless top man.

[Petey11]

3 hours ago, sirineou said:

Cases here in Thailand were very low, so the new situation is a bit of a shock to the system , but comparing to other countries , Thailand still does does very well .  For instance Greece , where I have friends and family , is only 11 million people, and they have close to thee thousand cases a day, and they are not panicking, instead they are opening up to vaccinated people soon. Thailand is 77 million people , they have one third the covid cases , and they are in a panic. Wife and me .We are seating here in our ASQ doing our seven day quarantine, we are both fully vaccinated, and we are treated like we are the plague.  After all the tests , and vaccinations we had, we are probaby the safest people in Thailand LOL  

Maybe they are in a panic because they know it's worse than the figures show, CCSA even said they don't have full picture.

[Bkk Brian]

So they say they're keeping an eye on these, lets hope so.................

 

Apart from Khlong Toei, the CCSA is also keeping an eye on 6 crowded communities (soi) in Lumpini area including Pattana Bonkai, Keha Bonkai, Polo, Phra Chen, Ruamrudee and Kularb Daeng. These communities had reported 162 cases since April 7.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1389448162847301636

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, pegman said:

Hard to believe numbers coming from these guys.

if the uk are testing about 40 times more a day and finding the same amount , of course the numbers in the community are wrong 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Interesting Thailand graphic from the data analysis source Our World in Data showing that Thailand's peak of new COVID cases based on a seven-day rolling average actually hit its high point thus far on April 29, and has been declining since, at least through data as of yesterday.

 

The Thai Ministry of Public Health reports daily COVID case totals for the country, which have been bouncing up and down since hitting a one-day peak on April 27 of 2,179 new cases. But for whatever reason, the MoPH has never publicly reported Thailand's seven-day rolling averages in its daily briefings, even though those are a key measurement used elsewhere.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Bkk Brian]

42 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

if the uk are testing about 40 times more a day and finding the same amount , of course the numbers in the community are wrong 

There you go, the nail on the head in one!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Today's televised government COVID update/news briefing that runs about 12 minutes.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/videos/335197904604453/

 

And the set of presentation slides used by the Ministry of Public Health in their prior Thai language briefing:

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/318533439764987

 

 

[ourmanflint]

44 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Interesting Thailand graphic from the data analysis source Our World in Data showing that Thailand's peak of new COVID cases based on a seven-day rolling average actually hit its high point thus far on April 29, and has been declining since, at least through data as of yesterday.

 

The Thai Ministry of Public Health reports daily COVID case totals for the country, which have been bouncing up and down since hitting a one-day peak on April 27 of 2,179 new cases. But for whatever reason, the MoPH has never publicly reported Thailand's seven-day rolling averages in its daily briefings, even though those are a key measurement used elsewhere.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

 

 

 

7 day rolling average of deaths lags cases by approximately 3 weeks so deaths today could be from cases in the first 10-15 days of April. This means deaths could hit 3 digits in the coming weeks

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

46 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Interesting Thailand graphic from the data analysis source Our World in Data showing that Thailand's peak of new COVID cases based on a seven-day rolling average actually hit its high point thus far on April 29, and has been declining since, at least through data as of yesterday.

 

The Thai Ministry of Public Health reports daily COVID case totals for the country, which have been bouncing up and down since hitting a one-day peak on April 27 of 2,179 new cases. But for whatever reason, the MoPH has never publicly reported Thailand's seven-day rolling averages in its daily briefings, even though those are a key measurement used elsewhere.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

 

 

If you date it from the beginning of the outbreak maybe gives a better picture? Or just a macro view. Regardless we all want to see this declining from now not sweeping back up slowly.