Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

[GeorgeEboy]

They are talking about the regular tourist who may pick or choose Thailand on a whim or part of a SEAn tour. Experienced male travelers know where they’re going and why? It’s not really a tourist vacation for them but a scheduled visit. So these venues will probably be back in action a lot faster.

[Lacessit]

37 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

I don't need sources friend. I am a 30 year licensed so called frontline healthcare worker working in the emergency department right now in the U.S. There's no true pandemic going on... and my colleagues from across the nation tell me the same. 

American exceptionalism at its best, let's just tuck away the half million dead under the carpet and forget about them. The reason the pandemic has diminished in the USA is related to the number of COVID vaccinations achieved. Interesting that Republican states are the ones shying away.

 India or Brazil ring any bells with you?

Pandemic is derived from the Greek " All people". Perhaps you think only Americans count.

 

[Niteowl45]

49 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Right.  I'm suppose to believe an anonymous member with a name like yours?  I call B...S...

 

I've got friends who are front line workers in the US.  They tell me a different story.  Sad some try to deny the severity of this pandemic.

 

Don't argue with crazy conspiracy theorists dude, or Trump supporters

neither type have the brains for a logical conversation, ergo trying to have one is just a waste of time

 

 

[Eric Loh]

Perhaps this is a silver lining for the environment that has been impacted by mass tourism and  the battered general infrastructure. Time for a re-set to a more sustainable quality tourism with less sleaze and corruption. 

[newnative]

     I arrived in Thailand in 2010.  That year, Thailand welcomed nearly 16 million international tourists.  It seemed plenty busy with that amount of tourists then.  It likely may be that Thailand will not be back to nearly 40 million tourists until 2026. 

    Maybe that is actually a good thing.  Instead of striving for 40 million, why not focus your efforts on getting back to around 16 million international tourists again for the next few years.  And, at the same time, ramp up your domestic tourism efforts--which have been fairly successful during the pandemic and could be even more successful when people feel it is now safe to travel.   Getting back to 2010 levels, combined with more domestic tourism, might make for a much more pleasant tourism experience in many places that were being over-run with tourists.  

[BestB]

10 years ago tourist numbers were half of pre Covid and yet bars were full, restaurants were full, hotels were full and everyone was making money . Pre Covid government toutted 40 million tourists, businesses  were crying not having customers and not making money.

 

bring back the old times , for some reason I think there would be a lot of happy people both local and tourists 

[IamNoone88]

5 years is enough to pivot some of the economy into new business streams and make the changes that are required to attract foreign investment - 100% foreign owned business, tax breaks, re-skill training, foreign ownership of real estate. If Covid does not make the Gov't recognise this point of infliction, nothing will. Time for change Thailand.

Edited May 25, 2021 by IamNoone88

[Venom]

I predict no effect on 2.5 PM air pollution in fact  Thailand's most polluted city on the planet status will return late December right on schedule for field burning season. Only difference being less tourists to breath in the filth. Enjoy. ???? 

[Guderian]

Just wait and see what measures are announced at the COP26 conference later this year to make long-haul flights much more expensive and reduce the number of short-haul flights. Politicians, at least in the West, are starting to take net-zero carbon seriously, and that's going to be uncomfortable for many ordinary people as it will limit what they can do in the future. No more gas central heating, for example, tax hydrocarbon fuels more and more aggressively to speed-up the switch to EV's, and additonal taxes on red meat and dairy products are all coming this decade, but the low-hanging fruit are unnecessary flights. Farangs will still be able to holiday in Thailand, but probably something like once in two or three years, certainly not several times a year. The tourism industry will become even more dominated by SE Asians, Indians and Chinese, plus the South Koreans and Japanese to a lesser extent, but that's just a trend that's been going on for over a decade anyway. If the Thai tourism industry ever does get back to "normal", it won't last very long.

[dave moir]

At last starting to talk sense!????

[Misterwhisper]

Finally an assessment that is closer to reality than the wishful thinking assorted government agencies and dubious "analysts" have disseminated practically on a weekly basis for the past 20 months or so.

 

Here are a few more facts that I believe are in the books:

 

Rather than immediately jumping on a long-haul flight as soon as countries open up again, the vast majority of European vacationers for the foreseeable future are going to opt for "sun and beach" destinations that are not only closer to home but also very affordable for family holidays: Spain, Portugal, Tunisia, Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Morocco.

 

As far as North Americans are concerned, a quite similar pattern will emerge: Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean.

 

Destinations in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam foremost are going to attract regional visitors, e.g. from China (no surprise there!), India, Japan, and South Korea for the same reason: they simply are closer to home.

 

Flight ticket prices are going to be more expensive than before for the average traveler, thus a more careful choice in the actual travel destination will become prudent. Personally, I think the days of $800 economy class return tickets between Europe and Southeast Asia will be over for a long time.  

[shackleton]

Well at last a bit of realism about the tourist industry

Until the vaccine program is completed then the Quarantine restrictions are lifted

Thailand can then start thinking about getting the Tourists who can afford to travel as there will be increased costs flights ect 

So maybe in a few years and counting ???? 

[Clarkey611]

42 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

American exceptionalism at its best, let's just tuck away the half million dead under the carpet and forget about them. The reason the pandemic has diminished in the USA is related to the number of COVID vaccinations achieved. Interesting that Republican states are the ones shying away.

 India or Brazil ring any bells with you?

Pandemic is derived from the Greek " All people". Perhaps you think only Americans count.

 

If it is a "disease for all people", why have so few people had it?

[Scott]

Off-topic, troll posts and replies removed.  

 

[rcuthbert]

Thailand = No Radical Feminism. Inexpensive nutritious food, warm weather, nice beaches, good gyms, and women unaffected by Catholic guilt, feminist propaganda, and the myopic quest for equality - are the norm.

Edited May 25, 2021 by rcuthbert
Content review

[Lacessit]

7 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

If it is a "disease for all people", why have so few people had it?

You call 167 million people a few?

The point about this disease is not the death rate, which is mainly confined to the elderly and obese. It's also the fact it can result in prolonged disablement, which many other ailments do not do. Two weeks, and you're either dead or fully recovered. That's why health authorities are treating it so seriously.

[rioD]

Wow finally some realistic thinking and honesty.

[Jeffr2]

17 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

If it is a "disease for all people", why have so few people had it?

I don't know anyone who hasn't heard of covid.  NOBODY.

[ricardofel]

This is what tourism looks like as of May 23 coming into Bangkok from Vienna.....777 Austrian Airlines with TEN passengers!!!!!!! The continued incompetence from the government is rather mind boggling and now hospitals pause vaccinations....again! Having received my 2 vaccinations in the US (my 13 year old just got his first shot) along with negative covid tests they treat "tourists" like we have a contagious disease that will kill millions of Thais so we must ASQ for 2 weeks instead of 1 week.

Who comes up with these scenarios?

 

[petedk]

1 hour ago, Freeduhdum said:

Same response I got the other day when I mentioned I have worked in the ICU setting in the past. Believe what ever you want to believe... 

 

So what caused the death of 590K people in the US?

[jmcet]

1 hour ago, Niteowl45 said:

 

Don't argue with crazy conspiracy theorists dude, or Trump supporters

neither type have the brains for a logical conversation, ergo trying to have one is just a waste of time

 

 

With statements like that you expose your ignorance 

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, ricardofel said:

This is what tourism looks like as of May 23 coming into Bangkok from Vienna.....777 Austrian Airlines with TEN passengers!!!!!!! The continued incompetence from the government is rather mind boggling and now hospitals pause vaccinations....again! Having received my 2 vaccinations in the US (my 13 year old just got his first shot) along with negative covid tests they treat "tourists" like we have a contagious disease that will kill millions of Thais so we must ASQ for 2 weeks instead of 1 week.

Who comes up with these scenarios?

 

Some of the vaccines (e.g. Moderna ) protect the recipient AND stop them from being infectious. Others ( e.g. AZ, Sinovac ) do not prevent the recipient from infecting others if they are carriers. Hence the maintenance of quarantine.

Permit me to doubt an immigration official has sufficient training and expertise to discriminate between the various vaccines, and allow admission without quarantine. It's one size fits all.

 

[youngster30uk]

5 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

There is definitely pent up demand out there.  First thing most people say in recovering countries when things get better is they want to travel.  But, sure getting back to 40 million here could take 10 years.

One problem they may run into is when people do start coming back is a big raise in prices.  Airfare, hotels, food, entertainment raising prices to make up for the current deficit.  Could push some away from here with the reputation of this place being a cheap travel destination.

Not sure where you get the idea about 'MOST people' Most people in most countries dont travel each year. Compound that with all the extra hullabaloo now required for travel,  the fact many people have lost their jobs, the fact that others now feel less financially secure than before, expensive overseas holidays are likely to be much further down the list for 'most' people

 

[Mavideol]

5 hours ago, welshguy said:

At last...some realism is hitting them.

it was about time, better late then never 555

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, Thailand said:

Staycations are big business in many countries especially this year but Thailand still is seeking the foreign golden goose. 

 

Concentrate on the tourists that can travel, and that is mainly domestic.

including, but not limited, to Thais and expats/residents  555

[George Aylesham]

5 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Tourism is tourism.  Tourism is having a safe country to go to for a care free holiday.

It's pretty hard to market a tourist area when the health care system is in tremendous stress and fear from collapsing because of a pandemic.  

People will not travel anywhere like this, full stop.

Quite correct - but tourism is also a sign of having adequate disposable incomes and many potential tourists have lost their jobs.

[BKKTRAVELER]

I honestly hope that it will be faster than 5 years to go back to normal. It would kill so many businesses (hotels, agencies, excursions tours and all parties involved, tourist shops, manufacturers, restaurants, coffee shops, transportations (taxis, trains, airlines...)). I really don't wish that on them because it would change millions of lives for the  worst and would destroy the appeal of the country. 

 

I don't agree with many things in Thailand, but I still love the place and the people in general.

[mikebell]

Tourists wont be back till Thais have reached 70% herd immunity through mass inoculation.  Given the appalling figures for the jab-programme at the hands of Anutin/Prayuth (who have had theirs,) we are looking at TEN years down the line.

[SymS]

It may never recover to the 2019 levels, as It could also depend on the climate policues and whatever the "Great Reset" is in the years ahead. Tourism is responsible for 5 to 8% of global emissions depending on which source is used.

[Poet]

1 hour ago, shackleton said:

Until the vaccine program is completed then the Quarantine restrictions are lifted

Why?

I have seen quite a few people repeated this idea on the forum and I am genuinely curious as to why you think it makes sense.

There seem to be two closely related assumptions:

1. To protect the public, the Thai government will not open to fully-vaccinated foreign tourists until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

2. Fully-vaccinated foreigners will be too frightened to visit Thailand until almost every Thai citizen has been vaccinated.

I believe the first assumption completely misinterprets the motivations and priorities of the Thai elites, while the second assumption massively underestimates the risk tolerance of the type of tourist who enjoys traveling in South East Asia.

The overwhelming priority of the junta is to avoid being deposed by an even more reactionary army faction. The real threat to them does not come from the students or even the red shirts. Only a few dozen families matter in Thailand. If they begin to feel that the current junta is losing them more money than is absolutely necessary, they will replace them. For the junta, losing power doesn't just mean that their swiss bank accounts will stop growing. It could well end with them swinging by their necks.

Most people from Western countries, which do a far better job of spinning the illusion of democracy, fail to understand just how much the elites do not care about the Thai people. For all the flag-waving, they see regular Thais as being barely the same species. Anything you hear the government say is designed to placate the masses at a worrying time but don't think for a minute that it reflects their actual instincts or plans.

The emergence of verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with, thanks to mass vaccination, plummeting active case levels, is the government's golden life raft. They are not going to miss this opportunity to get the money flywheel spinning again. By "the middle of the year" (July 1st) Thailand will allow the vaccinated to skip all the testing, paperwork, quarantine, and special insurance nonsense, because the elites know that is the only way that mass tourism can return and, again, these walking ATMs represent zero biological hazard to the Thai population.

As for the willingness of fully-vaccinated foreigners to come to Thailand just as soon as the ridiculous testing, paperwork, and quarantine requirements are swept away, if you think anyone is reluctant you must be talking to a very odd selection of people. Every vaccinated friend of mine is positively gagging to hop onto a plane. Seriously, ask around, you will hear the same thing again and again.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Poet