Thailand warns daily COVID-19 cases could hit 30,000 in worst case

[AndyFoxy]

37 minutes ago, Keesters said:

Could you provide a recognised source for your claim. 

No.

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, Clydesdale said:

It is worse than this. Supply to private hospitals has been withheld clearly in order to generate more revenue per shot. Let's hope that the problem is finally being recognised and that the profiteering is stopped.

Profiteering stop in Thailand? 

You jest, money is God to the wealthy, the more I have the better person I am. 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Artisi

[DjSilver]

30k new cases/day is not that bad. Thailand needs to have at least 220k new cases every day to be equal with for exemple Sweden since Thailand has 7 times more people living there and Sweden had more than 32k new cases in december 2020/january 2021.

[Darksidedude]

17 hours ago, ripstanley said:

If testing was increased then that number may already be surpassed.

agree

[Midwit]

Can you site 1 study that shows young people are at a substantial risk?  One study showing healthy people with no underlying health issues are dropping like flies?  I will wait

[Dogmatix]

10 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

With 60 million unvaxxeed the upper limit may be when all the poor vulnerabel are dead, We'll know it's really hits the fan when topknobs go off radar in their private jets to join redBS boy at the Dubai Shindig  or Black Frest gateau chateau

That's what happened in India.  The rich escaped to countries like the Maldives and the UK taking the delta with them.

 

Both those countries shut the doors on them too late and have paid a heavy price. Thailand will probably make the red lists soon, just in time for the grand 120 day opening. 

[Dogmatix]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

I agree that the limit to the upside could be even above 30k. And I have used the UK as a reference point when trying to guess what might happen in Thailand. 
 

I feel that the two may start to decouple over the next month or so though. The UK is totally open, whereas Thailand does have quite a few restrictions in place, and in some provinces quite stringent ones. So theoretically Thailand should start to undershoot the UK. By how much is anyone’s guess.

There's a big difference between Thailand and the UK in the level and quality of vaccinations.  Better to compare with India.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Dogmatix

[peter48]

Does not matter where you are across the world too many people do not grasp the simple fact that this new disease is very easly spread by air droplets - its a respiratory disease and the Delta Variant is faster spreading and is more virulent. Mask wearing is essential in crowded places. Too many people just think they cannot get it from friends or family or work colleagues because they know them. And many are not ill because it can be asymtomatic but they pass to others whose immune system cannot fight it off. 

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, luk AJ said:

in Europe positive cases surge as well BUT deaths are very low compared to previous peaks. For sure vaccinations and natural resistance from Covid positive are the probable reason behind this. Thailand should follow more close on the mortality figures which, in my opinion, are more important and reliable. Thailand may hit the 30.000 figure but at the same time it might be possible that the mortality figure stagnates or even goes down. In such case, I see no reason for more drastic/panic restrictions on freedom.

I can see your point vis a vis Europe. But Thailand’s vaccination rate is very low. Barely 5% of the population is fully vaccinated. So that is one big reason why Thailand’s deaths will likely rise as cases rise. And then there is the issue of hospitals close to be overwhelmed in Thailand.

[Dont confuse me]

6 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

 

 

 

[Dont confuse me]

30,000 is about 0.05% of the population, expect the number of cases to easily hit that.

If God forbid it does hit that figure then the way this is being handled  your in trouble!

[wensiensheng]

18 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

There's a big difference between Thailand and the UK in the level and quality of vaccinations.  Better to compare with India.

Quality of vaccine used will be a factor that is true, but I feel not enough to compensate for the fact that the UK has no restrictions, and Thailand quite a few. India is totally different from both countries in my opinion.

[Dogmatix]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Quality of vaccine used will be a factor that is true, but I feel not enough to compensate for the fact that the UK has no restrictions, and Thailand quite a few. India is totally different from both countries in my opinion.

Yes, good point. The clubbing alone in England should lead to thousands of infections.

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, Dont confuse me said:

30,000 is about 0.05% of the population, expect the number of cases to easily hit that.

If God forbid it does hit that figure then the way this is being handled  your in trouble!

Well, it may purportedly hit 30k per day, whilst the population remains more or less stagnant. So I don’t quite see the point of expressing a daily rate that grows cumulatively, with a stagnant population figure. It seems counter intuitive to me.

[AndyFoxy]

13 minutes ago, Dont confuse me said:

30,000 is about 0.05% of the population, expect the number of cases to easily hit that.

If God forbid it does hit that figure then the way this is being handled  your in trouble!

My what is in trouble?

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, possum1931 said:

Yes, it is about Thailand, but it is the same subject, it is just natural to mention the UK here as it has a similar population.

 

And specifically what does the average age of Covid mortality in the UK have to do with Thailand?

 

I didn’t see your post compare it to Thailand or give any reasoning why it might be the same, or differ to that in Thailand. If giving a stat about another country, why not draw some correlation between it and Thailand. Other wise it’s just a standalone fact that has no Thai context.

[Dont confuse me]

2 minutes ago, AndyFoxy said:

My what is in trouble?

Ok I'll spell it out for you, "Your in trouble " meaning Thailand as a country.

Does that help you?

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, The Cipher said:

You mean give context to Covid data?!! Naw, bruh. Why would they do that when there's contextless case count numbers to blast! Case count numbers easy. Context hard. Fear easy. Nuance hard.

It’s a good point, and an important one. Assuming you are intellectually interested in getting some context and not just venting, the question is, how to do it? I’ve had several goes at trying to get some scope on the issue and never really got past base 1, because there are just too many variables. They aren’t back of the envelope type calculations.

 

the only thing I have come up with that gives me personally some context, is to look at countries who have employed opposite ends of the lockdown spectrum, and to compare the relative medical and economic results.

 

in the pro lockdown camp I have usually utilized Singapore and China as surrogates for a model of what happens when lockdowns are used aggressively. I know there are very graphic images of the initial Wuhan lockdown, but Singapore has utilized very harsh lockdown measures and imposed penalties including deportation for expatriates and jail time, for quarantine breakers. New Zealand and Australia get an honorable mention in this group.

 

on the flip side, for countries that haven’t used lockdowns, Brazil is my number 1 go to, followed by Belarus and Sweden. The two former have leaders that basically ignored Covid, but Sweden has utilized a more responsible laissez faire approach. In the case of Belarus and Sweden, some comparisons with their Eastern Europe and Nordic neighbors are interesting.

 

By using this group of countries, I personally find that I can get a sense of the medical and economic results of using lockdowns, and not using lockdowns. In other words, context.

 

the next issue of course is that people draw very different conclusions from the same data, so in terms of gaining consensus, I’m not sure that it helps much 5555. More to satisfy personal intellectual curiosity I think. 5555

[PETERTHEEATER]

15 hours ago, Makem said:

Wonder what the figure will be when TAT estimate it?

Accurate. Ha ha! Only joking....

[nauseus]

18 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Predicting numbers is like guessing the lottery numbers. Short while back UK was under 2,000 a day now above 50K, albeit with a well vaccinated populace.

2,000 here became 3,000, became 4,000, then 6,000 and in no time has almost doubled with not much really in the way of a lockdown, which seems to stem from the welfare payments needed if they do call that. I do not see 30K as the worst case scenario, rather a likely one. The worst case could be way higher, as other Asian countries can testify.

Exactly. A specific guess is still a guess.

[AndyFoxy]

33 minutes ago, Dont confuse me said:

Ok I'll spell it out for you, "Your in trouble " meaning Thailand as a country.

Does that help you?

My Thailand is in trouble? If you are going to spell it out for me, at least spell it correctly.

[The Cipher]

23 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

It’s a good point, and an important one. Assuming you are intellectually interested in getting some context and not just venting, the question is, how to do it?

Just venting : (. With all due respect to the contributors here, this arena isn't the one I'd head to for a serious and stimulating debate about the pros/cons of different response measures lol.

 

The real value of this community (at least for me) is as an interactive sociological case study into the lives and thoughts of people I'd otherwise not have cause to interact with. Who knows, I might even end up making friends (for example you!).

[wensiensheng]

7 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Just venting : (. With all due respect to the contributors here, this arena isn't the one I'd head to for a serious and stimulating debate about the pros/cons of different response measures lol.

 

The real value of this community (at least for me) is as an interactive sociological case study into the lives and thoughts of people I'd otherwise not have cause to interact with. Who knows, I might even end up making friends (for example you!).

Steady on, that’s heady stuff 5555

[Keesters]

4 hours ago, AndyFoxy said:

No.

Then there is only one thing to say. IT WAS FAKE NEWS aka A LIE. 

 

Glad to see moderators agreed with me and removed your post. 

[AndyFoxy]

1 minute ago, Keesters said:

Then there is only one thing to say. IT WAS FAKE NEWS aka A LIE. 

 

Glad to see moderators agreed with me and removed your post. 

Outstanding victory bud. Congrats.

[Keesters]

14 minutes ago, AndyFoxy said:

Outstanding victory bud. Congrats.

And you're so obviously proud of your achievement. 

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, Keesters said:

Then there is only one thing to say. IT WAS FAKE NEWS aka A LIE. 

 

Glad to see moderators agreed with me and removed your post. 

Its more than reasonable to say that it is 30k a day already through lack of testing

[AndyFoxy]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its more than reasonable to say that it is 30k a day already through lack of testing

Definitely. That other guy calling it fake news seems pretty uptight about it. 

[Keesters]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its more than reasonable to say that it is 30k a day already through lack of testing

Your entiltled to say that as an opinion but not to state it as a fact.

[AndyFoxy]

2 minutes ago, Keesters said:

Your entiltled to say that as an opinion but not to state it as a fact.

Ok....let me restate.

 

In my humble opinion, it is entirely likely that the numbers are at 30K by now. Better?