Thailand Risks First Double-Dip Recession Since 1998 Crisis

[DUNROAMIN]

As my old mate Gomer Pyle once said "Surprise, Surprise".

[Bim Smith]

It's a depression but it's just not being reported. Currency reserves are much higher now from the lessons learned from 98 but even they must be running low. What they run out the baht will truly crash. 

[nobodysfriend]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

some economists are flagging the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of the year -- or even a second straight annual contraction,

The myth of possible eternal growth is just a fantasy .

Much better to reduce growth to a healthy and sustainable level .

Capitalism leads to greed . Greed leads to destruction .

Destruction leads to everybody suffering ...

 

Everybody is so scared about a recession ... why ? A reduction in what we consume is a good thing .

Edited July 30, 2021 by nobodysfriend

[Scrotobike]

Better a double economic dip (what ever that is), than a dip in some of the costal waters around the land of smiles.

[spidermike007]

Surely Prayuth and his weaklings will blame Covid. It was not our fault. We did everything we could. This was unavoidable. We did not see this coming. 

 

The reality is, this was self created. The destruction to the economy with the highly selective and constant shutdowns was near total. The sabotage (no other way to describe it) of the tourism industry will be felt for a decade. 

 

Prayuth and his horrendously incapable health minister bear full responsibility for this. It was and is their fiasco.

 

Let us call it the Pratin Legacy. 

Edited July 30, 2021 by spidermike007

[stephenterry]

Clearly, a lower baht realignment would not only lead to cheaper exports, but also attract foreign tourism, if it wasn't for the Thai government failing to promptly vaccinate their population- who now are the greatest danger of spreading the Covid everywhere. 

 

For long-term ex-pats who have been suffering lower and lower exchange rates for many years now, it is, and will be, a refreshing relief from making ends meet. Celebrate with a good quality whisky, or a quality pinot noir.

 

Cheers, guys.

 

 

  

[whiteman]

23 bhat to $nz first time in 3 years  keep it coming 

Edited July 30, 2021 by whiteman

[nobodysfriend]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The reality is, this was self created. The destruction to the economy with the highly selective and constant shutdowns was near total. The sabotage (no other way to describe it) of the tourism industry will be felt for a decade

I surely agree with your view of the incompetence of the present thai government .

Their reaction to the virus has been pathetic at best .

But the virus itself did not ' grow on Prajut's own petridish ' .

He is not responsible for this .

It is human behavior that is .

 

[jacko45k]

5 minutes ago, whiteman said:

23 bhat to $nz first time in 3 years  keep it coming 

Is it of any benefit to you?

[Jonathan Swift]

14 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Sorry Thai people, but I'd really love an economic meltdown to make things cheaper, in particular the overvalued condos in Bkk. 

Your compassion runneth over, it would appear that the real overvaluation is of you as a human being. I suggest you move to North Korea. You don't belong here for sure. 

[whiteman]

Is it of any benefit to you?   Sure is I got heaps of nz waiting to flow over to here when I think the time is right

[Jonathan Swift]

14 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

Why would anyone find satisfaction from the possible demise of the economic status of a country and the impact on the vast majority who are already mainly  far from comfortable wealth?

Because some people are entirely self centered, devoid of compassion for those who live difficult lives, and take sadistic  pleasure in others' misfortune. These are diseased human beings. 

[henry213]

???????????????????????????? I'm sooooo happy ???????????????????????????????? it's what you deserve, as long as there is enough left for some subs.

[thailand49]

11 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Oh dear General what are you going to do? borrow or run ????

He will most likely get back to you?  a decision way out of his scope he will need to check in with all his advisors and I mean all!????

Edited July 30, 2021 by thailand49

[henry213]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

Because some people are entirely self centered, devoid of compassion for those who live difficult lives, and take sadistic  pleasure in others' misfortune. These are diseased human beings. 

Why you writing bad about Thai's?

[Jonathan Swift]

14 hours ago, Orinoco said:

I care as much as they care about me. !!!!!!!!!! LOL 

Ironically, the Thai people are  exponentially more compassionate as a culture than the likes of you, much higher on the evolutionary ladder. If you've had bad experiences they were no doubt due to your attitude and behavior and obvious contempt for them. What you get is based on what you give. I show them respect, and I get it 100X in return. Take a look in the mirror. The Thai people deserve better than you, and fortunately most expats live up to that.

[kwak250]

Last time i had a double-dip was at a rave in the early 90's

[thailand49]

38 minutes ago, Bim Smith said:

It's a depression but it's just not being reported. Currency reserves are much higher now from the lessons learned from 98 but even they must be running low. What they run out the baht will truly crash. 

I read a few months back that they were dipping into their reserves already!

[bougnat]

14 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Sorry Thai people, but I'd really love an economic meltdown to make things cheaper, in particular the overvalued condos in Bkk. 

Make home ownership accessible to all foreign residents without restrictions and capital will support the economy.

[Banana7]

It's the super rich of Thailand that demanded importing foreign labourers, without a 14 day quarantine, without a covid19 test and without a USD$100,000 insurance policy, from heavily virus infected neighbouring countries, that caused this massive new wave of infections since April. It was also Thai immigration (Police) and the Thai military that allowed the migrants across the borders without following the virus rules and guidelines.

 

These super rich owners of construction and development companies, many factories of all sizes, and of course lets not forget the merchants of wholesale markets, especially seafood, employed illegal migrant laborers, and let's not forget the government who fully knew about these illegal labourers. The government even provided them amnesty to register.

 

Basically, the government, bowed down to the super rich so they could make more money, sacrificing the lives of innocent Thais and all who live in Thailand and suffer economic hardship.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Banana7

[Jonathan Swift]

21 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

Clearly, a lower baht realignment would not only lead to cheaper exports, but also attract foreign tourism, if it wasn't for the Thai government failing to promptly vaccinate their population- who now are the greatest danger of spreading the Covid everywhere. 

 

For long-term ex-pats who have been suffering lower and lower exchange rates for many years now, it is, and will be, a refreshing relief from making ends meet. Celebrate with a good quality whisky, or a quality pinot noir.

 

Cheers, guys.

 

 

  

Economies swing back and forth like pendulums, the baht to foreign currency value bottomed out at an unsustainable low and is now doing well, so as you said, the spending spigots of expats and others will now open and hopefully jump start things. It's very similar to when the stock market has a "correction" after a bubble. The exchange rate was a bubble that had to burst. 

[nobodysfriend]

1 minute ago, Banana7 said:

Basically, the government, bowed down to the super rich so they could make more money,

That is the same ( nearly ) everywhere ...

[newnative]

And, where are the bold moves to combat the recession?  Nowhere to be found.  Just dithering, dithering, dithering. 

[DPKANKAN]

13 hours ago, chalawaan said:

C'mon! a double dip recession is for wimps!

Let's push the boat out, nothing less than a Triple Dip Depression, with a side of out of control disease! Yeah baby! Burn like you mean it!

Thailand. The hub of recessions!!!!????????????????????????????????

[Isaan sailor]

Instead of ordering the best vaccines to combat Covid Delta—they’ve opted for the best toys: bullet trains to connect to China, submarines, and other military equipment.  So I guess we don’t have to worry about any evil country attacking Thailand.

[Peterw42]

Any recession etc is a double edged sword for most of us. Yes, I get a better exchange rate and prices are down on goods and services, But my Thai wife has been unemployed for a year now, and any of her sideline businesses no longer make much money.

As a couple, we have lost a big chunk of our income.

 

We were better off when exchange rates were down and prices had a tourist premium. My wife used to cover her own mortgage, had her own pocket money etc.

 

A 2 week tourist may be better off but most of us are worse off as the economy goes down.

[Banana7]

Attached are the Bank of Thailand (BOT) Reserves. Note foreign currency is declining but gold reserves are climbing. Total reserves are declining. Hold on, its going to a be roller coaster ride, and a screamer on the way down!

EC_XT_030(1).xlsx

[Tubulat]

Nice picture with a 110mm lens, right on sea, yes of course the beach likes empty that way.

[shackleton]

People keep talking about the baht falling in other words more for the $

Or pound then talk about the Tourist returning 

More focus is needed on vaccination for the whole Country then talk about the Tourist returning 

Looks like the Phuket sandbox is not going to well either ????

 

[bougnat]

13 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Will the nation become insolvent and have to use the USD cash reserves to buy back some baht to help keep the inflation at a dull roar. However if the cash reserves start to run low the central bank will be possibly forced to devalue its currency. Thus forward-looking investors should plan for that event today.

Thailand buys gold. The message is clear, supports currency. devaluation is not for tomorrow, unless the boss loses his place .....