SURVEY: How high will this Covid wave go?

[Gottfrid]

  On 8/8/2021 at 8:25 AM, Ralf001 said:

And what about the non lab confirmed... these new DIY antigen test kits are showing up many.

12 at my work on Friday, they wont make the "official" stats.

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That is same in all countries and have nothing to do with my post that regarded laboratory confirmed cases. What is your point. If a person choose to make a test in home and then not report it. Where in the world is that different?

[digger70]

I said weeks ago 50 000 . Just hoping that I am wrong and it will go down Now.

[Almer]

I guess 30.000+ but am concerned about the unreported could be double or more.

[Capella]

  On 8/8/2021 at 8:24 AM, Ralf001 said:

I doubt the government will report to more than that... we all know the actual numbers to be much much higher.

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The number of people who get infected is not of primary concern if they aren't sick, as is the case with most people. The thing that really matters is hospitalisations and deaths. 

[HappyExpat57]

I'd like to be Pollyanish here. Vaccines are starting to trickle down to us and with the severe closures, I hope it will level out at 25k.

 

Now were you to ask about the some semblance of a financial recovery - 2024-2025.

[Swimfan]

  On 8/8/2021 at 3:37 AM, Capella said:

Infections aren't the most important thing here - of much more concern are hospitalisations and deaths. That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

On the negative side:

1) Thais often live in large families and/or in close proximity to others, and

2) The Delta strain seems to spread more quickly that others

 

On the positive side:

1) Thais don't shake hands or hug like we do in the west, and

2) Thailand's population is not as large as countries with lots more infections, like the US, India, etc, and

3) Vaccination, while off to a slow start, will pick up before too long, with most vulnerable people having received at least one dose now, unlike countries where the virus was being transmitted before the vaccine was available

 

I'm optimitstic that things will soon improve.

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Most of your positive sides are really moot with delta. 
we all know now that you can catch it just walking past an infected person. Nobody is talking about touch and surface transmission anymore that is last year’s issues. 
Maybe not as large a population but density is a bigger factor and Thailand has a far greater density than the USA and many other countries with significant outbreaks and death tolls. 
The majority of people vaccinated have been given vaccines that are significantly less effective as the majority of vaccines used by other nations. 

[Caldera]

I think Greater Bangkok will peak towards the end of this month, and the rest of Thailand 1-2 months later.

 

This based on positivity rates; clearly the official numbers fail to capture the actual spread by quite a margin. At 20% in crowded Bangkok communities, it can only double 1-2 more times. Add to that the ongoing vaccination drive that is also focused on Greater Bangkok at this time.

 

As for the official daily total, I think the highest we'll see will be about 30,000. If they eventually include positives from rapid antigen tests in that tally, then more than that.

[Rimmer]

Some bickering posts have been removed

[milys]

Until people get vaccinated it will not "plateau", level out or whatever. The health minister can shamefully lie about that Thailand is well on the way on vaccinating people. The numbers are talking themselves and sadly will continue to do so..

[hugocnx]

I think this poll gives an opportunity for speculation by non insiders (most of us members) to have a guess on this so called pandemic. Besides that, what is the use bringing it up as even the profi's know nothing about it.

[ukrules]

How high?

 

Sky high

[hugocnx]

  On 8/8/2021 at 3:49 PM, ukrules said:

How high?

 

Sky high

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So there is a limit then.

[Albert Zweistein]

The numbers will never exceed 30 K, Prayut and Anutin will take care of this.

[Kadilo]

I think they may creep a little higher but my vote was for it plateauing.

 

The massive increase in recent vaccinations will help flatten the curve once the benefits start to kick in. 
 

 

[ukrules]

  On 8/8/2021 at 7:21 PM, Kadilo said:

I think they may creep a little higher but my vote was for it plateauing.

 

The massive increase in recent vaccinations will help flatten the curve once the benefits start to kick in.

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That's interesting. Have you read about what they're doing in Finland?

[phetchy]

how do you spell  (<deleted>| or Bollocx|?}

[Kadilo]

  On 8/8/2021 at 7:51 PM, ukrules said:

That's interesting. Have you read about what they're doing in Finland?

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Enlighten me. 

[ukrules]

  On 8/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, Kadilo said:

Enlighten me. 

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They're a 'very vaccinated' country, not sure on the percent rate but it's one of the highest, up there with the likes of Israel.

 

They announced that booster shots will be given to the vulnerable, a lot of countries haven't decided on this booster shot step yet but I think it's going to be likely in a lot of places for people who were vaccinated much earlier this year.

 

In fact the current infections chart shows they're matching the peak of the epidemic back in March and it still appears to be rising at the moment.

 

Small country though....

 

They don't seem to have that many deaths either which is a good sign.

 

 

[248900_1469958220]

  On 8/8/2021 at 7:33 AM, Lucky dog said:

I agree. The numbers are very much higher. Without accurate reporting very hard to tell. Vaccines are so slow I think we are looking at natural herd amenity. When the numbers start dropping significantly we will know herd imunity has started. I think to little to late and with sinovac the Vaccines won't beat natural herd imunity.

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The elephant in the room is natural immunity. Listen to CNN and everyone needs a vaccine regardless of whether they have had Covid and recovered. There are other credible sources that dont agree with this. I think you are right. If they are reporting 20,000 cases in a day you can probably triple that number. Given that Thailand only really started seriously testing again a few months back, who knows how long Covid has been circling around Thailand undetected? Mass antibody testing would be interesting though it will never happen. I would like an antibody test myself....

[4MyEgo]

If one looks at graphs around the world, it typically takes off for a couple of months and then takes a nose dive. We can only hope that that is the case here, so lets continue to hope, say beginning September on the downward move.

 

[shambo]

  On 8/8/2021 at 11:04 AM, Swimfan said:

Most of your positive sides are really moot with delta. 
we all know now that you can catch it just walking past an infected person. Nobody is talking about touch and surface transmission anymore that is last year’s issues. 
Maybe not as large a population but density is a bigger factor and Thailand has a far greater density than the USA and many other countries with significant outbreaks and death tolls. 
The majority of people vaccinated have been given vaccines that are significantly less effective as the majority of vaccines used by other nations. 

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We all know that you can get hit by a MC, get killed on your way to a waterfall and so on. Fact is that it is NOT so easy to get it as millions have been on public transportation in Europe and NOT got it. Same with airplanes and NOT got it. Pl don't spread fear! Swimming pools, oh My! Keep distance and less change to get it.

[Uroller]

  On 8/8/2021 at 9:44 AM, Gottfrid said:

What? Why? Do you have something supporting the opposite?

The supporting document that shows all registered laboratory confirmed cases are official and publicized daily. One place you can find the daily cases are by reading on Thai Visa as an example.

Now you can show me the documents supporting those numbers are false.

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Just as I thought????????????

[Gottfrid]

  On 8/9/2021 at 6:18 AM, Uroller said:

Just as I thought????????????

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Yes, but of course. By judging out of your very detailed comment, I can see that you really gave it a lot of time to sink in.

[ignis]

Covid ' Lambda'  worse than Delta ? is now in Asia and getting closer so Covid may be ongoing for many more years

[ukrules]

  On 8/9/2021 at 7:01 AM, ignis said:

Covid ' Lambda'  worse than Delta ? is now in Asia and getting closer so Covid may be ongoing for many more years

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These 'variants' don't seem to last more than about half a year before being superceded by the next generation.

 

I wonder what we will have at the end of the year, and where it will come from.

 

I suspect there is a very strong chance that a new variant will come out of Southeast Asia now it's spreading widely.

[rickudon]

I went for 30,000, partially because i doubt 'official' testing will ever be sufficient for higher numbers.

On the positive side, in Udon Thani 90% of reported cases are from people who were out of province. Local transmission is low, rarely more than 20 people a day. Maybe the local health volunteers are tracking contacts quickly and slowing the spread. Will vaccination make much difference? To deaths, yes, but not to cases. UK has had more than 20,000 cases a day for about 2 months. People have just got used to it, death rate is now below 0.5%, mainly of those who wouldn't vaccinate. I'm there now, and life is incredibly normal. A vaccination rate of 90% locally helps. Would be more careful in London or Northern cities.