Prepare for a spike, public health expert says, but don’t panic

[impulse]

36 minutes ago, fusion58 said:

1. Your definition of what constitutes a “long term” study seems totally arbitrary.

 

2. The safety of the Pfizer vaccine has already been sufficiently established, as evidenced by the FDA’s granting of full approval for its use. As for me, I will take the advice of the scientists and ID docs over the plethora of Internet “researchers” any day of the week.

1)  How long did it take for the negative effects of thalidomide to be identified?

 

2) The FDA made a political ruling, not based on any long term safety evaluation.  Look at it a little more in detail, and the Pfizer is still under EUA.  The full approval is for a virtually identical product, packaged, labeled and marketed under a different brand name, and it's not widely available.  So they get the best of both worlds...  People think Pfizer has been fully approved, but the EUA shields them from any liability they'll be exposed to once they start selling with full approval under the Comirnaty name.

 

As I've said, I've been jabbed.  Pfizer.  I'm due for a booster soon, and will get it.  I'm just not in favor of mandating it. 

 

There's billions of people around the world clamoring for the jabs and can't get them, and millions who don't want them.  Seems ridiculous to force it on those millions who don't want it instead of giving it the the billions who do want it.  By the time they jab all the folks that do want it, they may have some long term safety data and won't have to mandate it.

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by impulse

[Speedhump]

8 hours ago, The Cipher said:

Man, you can literally go to any database of academic publications and find population studies that show the benefits of vaccines against Covid. Here's a link. There are dozens, take your pick.

 

If investigating that link is too much work, here's a screenshot of a conclusion from one study.

 

 

Sometimes I feel like all I do on here is people's homework for them. Come on, guys.

Arrogant and stupid. 

 

I didn't say there aren't benefits to being vaccinated. ????

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Speedhump said:

I'd like to see how many studies show a SIGNIFICANT reduction in contracting the virus after vaccination. I believe that there are many studies already with no solid proof that any/all vaccines can give any 'worthwhile' protection against infection. The truth such as there is, will be in the numbers. 

You really discuss two different things.

Contracting the virus, and suffering a serious symptomatic infection.

There is ample evidence that vaccinations reduce serious symptoms. 

[The Cipher]

17 minutes ago, Speedhump said:

Arrogant and stupid. 

 

I didn't say there aren't benefits to being vaccinated.

I was gonna write a sharp witted reply, but I try not to do that on here anymore. Given the nature of the forum demographic, it just doesn't feel right.

 

So what I will do instead is actually try and provide some value here are a couple of studies (literally just the first two I could grab) that suggest vaccination is effective in reducing virus transmission - although they aren't even close to preventing all transmission.

 

And - one additional thing to consider is that if they are highly effective at symptom mitigation, it almost doesn't even matter if transmission occurs. Covid is only presumably only scary (or well some people think it's scary lmao) because of the negative health effects it causes. But if those negative effects are significantly reduced via vaccination, thereby decreasing the threat of the pathogen, why would it even matter at that point if Covid was still transmissible among the vaccinated? So generally, vaccination takes some of the bite off the pandemic via both of the above avenues.

[Speedhump]

33 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

You really discuss two different things.

Contracting the virus, and suffering a serious symptomatic infection.

There is ample evidence that vaccinations reduce serious symptoms. 

I'm glad you noticed that, others didn't. 

[Speedhump]

19 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

I was gonna write a sharp witted reply, but I try not to do that on here anymore. Given the nature of the forum demographic, it just doesn't feel right.

 

So what I will do instead is actually try and provide some value here are a couple of studies (literally just the first two I could grab) that suggest vaccination is effective in reducing virus transmission - although they aren't even close to preventing all transmission.

 

And - one additional thing to consider is that if they are highly effective at symptom mitigation, it almost doesn't even matter if transmission occurs. Covid is only presumably only scary (or well some people think it's scary lmao) because of the negative health effects it causes. But if those negative effects are significantly reduced via vaccination, thereby decreasing the threat of the pathogen, why would it even matter at that point if Covid was still transmissible among the vaccinated? So generally, vaccination takes some of the bite off the pandemic via both of the above avenues.

Well, as you've decided to stop being arrogant and 'telling everyone what they should already know', I'll engage with you.

 

12 August 2021 - nature.com

Emerging data suggest that Delta could spread more readily than other coronavirus variants among people vaccinated against COVID-19.

"Data from COVID-19 tests in the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are showing that vaccinated people who become infected with Delta SARS-CoV-2 can carry as much virus in their nose as do unvaccinated people. This means that despite the protection offered by vaccines, a proportion of vaccinated people can pass on Delta, possibly aiding its rise.

 

“People who have a Delta virus and happen to have ‘breakthrough’ infections can carry these really high levels of virus, and can unwittingly spread the virus to others,” says David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison."

 

Personally I don't believe that transmission can be prevented to any great degree, 'the studies' (some) show some reduction in transmission, that's all. With mutations that are regularly occurring it seems even more of an impossible task. Consider the flu jab, only partially effective each year. Many (most?) people don't bother, even older people.

 

So let it rip once vaccinations have reached most of the population and let it spread but with reduced symptoms due to vaccination. We must learn to live with it. Old folk have been screaming in some countries when they were locked in their houses, that just can't happen, free will is the condition of man (OK, some would argue not) and must be respected, within the bounds of the law.

[elgenon]

I like the message. If you die, don't panic.

[Stubby]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

Not if the vaccines work properly......and that is proving to be the big problem in some places right now. Not here, not yet but it's coming.

The vaccinations - it seems - are the only hope, so let's hope they do what they say on the tin.
 

But no one needs to fear the unvaccinated now because everyone is going to get COVID whether they've had the jab or not. That's according to the latest scientific updates. The only difference is that the unvaccinated are at higher risk of getting seriously ill, but that's their choice. So, based on this latest update, one has to ask the question... why are we still ordered to wear face nappies?

[AnotherFarang8]

11 hours ago, The Cipher said:

Heh. I'm 30 and I literally think that the response to Covid has been the single biggest mass overreaction in the history of mankind. Yeah I'm aware that Covid is mostly a danger to older and/or already unhealthy people, and yeah, younger and relatively more healthy people will probably be fine without a vaccine. But they should still get it anyway, and here's why...

 

My pro-vaccine argument isn't really based on telling people that they need a vaccine for medical reasons. It's just based on a practical approach to the problem. Rightly or wrongly the general world has decided that vaccine saturation is the key benchmark for reopening. And you could argue about whether or not that's valid, but from my perspective it just is an immutable fact. I can't change it right now, so I just accept it as given.

 

My goal has always been to get life back to normal as fast as possible. I like to think that's a shared objective for most of us. And so practically, getting vaccine numbers up seems to be the surest way of doing that. I mean, I guess I could fight the authorities, but I just don't see how that would be a quicker way of achieving the goal in this case.

 

And it's not like vaccines are doing any real harm to people. I get that these ones have a short track record, but on the balance of probabilities the chances that they'll have material negative effects in the future is pretty low, and the act of getting vaccinated isn't really too inconvenient. The other benefit of vaccines is that we know that they've been extremely effective at reducing serious Covid cases, and the less serious cases there are, the less likely that people will fear the virus enough to lock down again in the future (if you can't tell, I really fking hate lockdowns).

 

Anyway TLDR: if you're a healthy young person do you really need the vaccine? Probably not. But should you get it anyway? Yes. The non-medical benefits are worth the inconvenience.

I see your point. In one sentence it can be summarized as “bend over and do as they say”. For me the logical fallacies, half truths and flip flopping in this “fight” with covid have been too many to ignore and simply accept. I prefer to stay on the fence for now waiting it out. The only nuisance is inability to travel to countries like Thailand. I will need to look to other lands that share my viewpoint that vaccination for this virus must not be mandatory for travelers.

 

Example of logical fallacy. People who recovered from covid must be given the same status as vaccinated people. But no, bend over and get your jab, everyone. I could go on with more bs that they want people to simply accept but it’ll be too long.

Edited September 3, 2021 by AnotherFarang8

[Mike k]

On 9/1/2021 at 8:57 AM, marin said:

Seems to me we are going to be saying, "here we go again". Finally numbers trending downward in a real way, and we open up malls and restaurants to the unvaccinated.  10% of the populace has had 2 injections. Everybody is bored and restless but now is certainly not the time to open up like this. But I do need a haircut.

Are you sure the numbers were going down and not just being manipulated 

[Billybaroo]

On 9/1/2021 at 8:34 AM, Golden Triangle said:

And why wouldn't one require vaccination  ??

  Is vaccination required in Thailand? 

[Golden Triangle]

1 hour ago, Billybaroo said:

  Is vaccination required in Thailand? 

If not now, it will be very soon, they dropped the 2 jabs requirements for restaurants because of their abysmal vaccine rollout, but it will be back ???????? Where are you based ? Within Thailand or abroad ? If abroad you can't come unless you've had 2 jabs, airlines probably won't let you fly, I don't know about that as I live here & don't worry about external requirements, I feel sure the list will grow as time goes by.

[shdmn]

Here is the deal.  I know this type of thinking is not mainstream right now so I will get some pushback.  Mark my words it will become mainstream. I am reading this from some medical experts (who are not quacks) too so it's not just me with some random opinion.

 

The utopia of herd immunity that we were promised is clearly not going to happen.  The new thinking is that we need to just start living with the virus.  Protect the most vulnerable as much as you can, strongly encourage everyone else to get vaccinated, and just deal with the rest of the fallout as best as you can because it's not going away. Never ending on again/off again lockdowns and restrictions, which arguably aren't accomplishing much and causing more hardship, are NOT a long term solution.

Edited September 3, 2021 by shdmn

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, shdmn said:

Here is the deal.  I know this type of thinking is not mainstream right now so I will get some pushback.  Mark my words it will become mainstream. I am reading this from some medical experts (who are not quacks) too so it's not just me with some random opinion.

 

The utopia of herd immunity that we were promised is clearly not going to happen.  The new thinking is that we need to just start living with the virus.  Protect the most vulnerable as much as you can, strongly encourage everyone else to get vaccinated, and just deal with the rest of the fallout as best as you can because it's not going away. Never ending on again/off again lockdowns and restrictions, which arguably aren't accomplishing much and causing more hardship, are NOT a long term solution.

Nothing earth shattering there. For the last 2 or 3 weeks there have been a number of studies reflecting this notion along with experts in the UK, US and Israel all saying the same thing. Its already mainstream and acknowledged by high vaxxed countries including Singapore.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[shdmn]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nothing earth shattering there. For the last 2 or 3 weeks there have been a number of studies refecting this notion along with experts in the UK, US and Israel all saying the same thing. Its already mainstream and acknowledged by high vaxxed countries including Singapore.

Singapore was one of the first to say this.  However, I think they ended up backtracking a bit because they got another spike in cases and lost their nerve.  They were also cowered by the pushback they got and many other countries are now getting.

Edited September 3, 2021 by shdmn

[zzaa09]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nothing earth shattering there. For the last 2 or 3 weeks there have been a number of studies refecting this notion along with experts in the UK, US and Israel all saying the same thing. Its already mainstream and acknowledged by high vaxxed countries including Singapore.

This line of thought and reasoning [living w/ COVID] is fast becoming an accepted reality among even hardline establishment circles - scientists, officialdom, media, etc. 

They'll just have to retool their mantra - repeated often and loud enough. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

This line of thought and reasoning [living w/ COVID] is fast becoming an accepted reality among even hardline establishment circles - scientists, officialdom, media, etc. 

They'll just have to retool their mantra - repeated often and loud enough. 

Sure. The jabs have to come first and hospitals out of full capcity then living with it has already been widely shared with most western govs and the populations.

[mommysboy]

On 9/1/2021 at 8:58 AM, tonray said:

Time for us to learn to deal with it as a risk. Vaccinated people significantly less risk than those who choose not to be. Life goes on

The time is when you have 80% upwards vaccinated.  Otherwise living with it means 1000 plus deaths a day, every day, and it doesn't go down until another lockdown comes in to place.

 

Have you been vaccinated?

[shdmn]

26 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

The time is when you have 80% upwards vaccinated.  Otherwise living with it means 1000 plus deaths a day, every day, and it doesn't go down until another lockdown comes in to place.

 

Have you been vaccinated?

The promise of herd immunity and all the magical things that was supposed to bring us is not happening.  Not at 80%, not at 90%.  You will never get 100% but even if you could it's not happening there either.

 

It will become endemic just like the flu.  We couldn't stomp that out with vaccines either.

Edited September 3, 2021 by shdmn

[The Cipher]

I just saw this. Disclaimer: I still think everyone should get vaccinated and that restrictions of any kind are unnecessary, but in a vacuum this is pretty funny (link).

 

[mommysboy]

41 minutes ago, shdmn said:

The promise of herd immunity and all the magical things that was supposed to bring us is not happening.  Not at 80%, not at 90%.  You will never get 100% but even if you could it's not happening there either.

 

It will become endemic just like the flu.  We couldn't stomp that out with vaccines either.

I'm not talking about herd immunity, or preventing infection, but preventing deaths.

 

When nobody is vaccinated then deaths in the UK for example steadily rose until restrictions were imposed, up as far as 1400 per day as I recall.  And finally when UK went in to lockdown they were still rising.  Who knows they may have reached 2000 and beyond.

 

Now UK is 80% vaccinated, deaths are about 100-200 per day, at 40,000 cases per day.

 

That's living with it, and not letting it run rife through an unvaccinated population, especially the aged.

 

 

[tonray]

7 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The time is when you have 80% upwards vaccinated.  Otherwise living with it means 1000 plus deaths a day, every day, and it doesn't go down until another lockdown comes in to place.

 

Have you been vaccinated?

You misunderstood my comment. Living with it means that we must continue on with daily life with precautions, masks, hand washing, not congregating with others in closed spaces, etc. Just meant further shutting everyone in at this point once vaccination has started to gain momentum is losing effectiveness. I'll give an example, my GF manages a supermarket (Tops), 5 members of her staff have come down with Covid...not due to working at the market but because in Bangkok, everyone lives in a single small house with extended family, in every case, the staff member was infected along with several siblings and/or parents/grandparents, isolating in a smalll house in Bangkok where at least one member must go out daily is just not conducive to containing viral transmission.

 

To answer your question, had my first shot and 5 weeks to go for my second Astra.

[Stargeezr]

I read the comment, learn to live with it, but with the delta variant, it is more like,

learn to die from it, or at the very least, become very sick.

  Hey once you are dead, you no longer have to worry about being an anti vaxxer..

Just my positive thinking.

Geezer

[gk10012001]

A spike is one thing, how severe the effects of the spike are is another thing.  The number of severe illnesses, deaths, economic shutdowns, , etc. 

[placeholder]

On 9/2/2021 at 5:38 PM, impulse said:

 The FDA made a political ruling, not based on any long term safety evaluation.  Look at it a little more in detail, and the Pfizer is still under EUA.  The full approval is for a virtually identical product, packaged, labeled and marketed under a different brand name, and it's not widely available.  So they get the best of both worlds...  People think Pfizer has been fully approved, but the EUA shields them from any liability they'll be exposed to once they start selling with full approval under the Comirnaty name.

 

This is a falsehood fostered by anti-vaxxers based on the claim that Pfizer wont be selling the vaccine under the Comirnaty name because it doesn't enjoy the same liability protection as does the unbranded vaccine.

[cdemundo]

On 9/1/2021 at 1:33 AM, 248900_1469958220 said:

Ok, so why waste vaccines on people that have already had, and recovered from Covid 19? Why not prioritize the vaccines for poor countries, with poor healthcare systems.....and a LOT of vulnerable people? Why is Brad, the 25 year old personal trainer that had, and recovered from a mild dose of this disease rushing out to get vaccinated??? Can someone answer please. My brain hurts from all the hysteria. 

My question is a little different.

Why do these videos and newscasts always interview personal trainers and baristas?

Have they become the medical experts in the modern world?