Bangkok on high alert for violence

[george]

POLITICAL PARTY RULINGS

Bangkok on high alert for violence

13,000 soldiers, police to be deployed in areas considered to be flashpoints; Democrats, TRT deny mobilising supporters

BANGKOK: -- Security will be tightened in areas likely to be flashpoints for violence ahead of tomorrow's landmark rulings of the Constitution Tribunal on the electoral fraud cases against the country's two largest political parties.

A 13,000-strong combined force of police and soldiers will be deployed to maintain order and prevent violence, Council for National Security chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said. He was speaking after a meeting of officials in preparation for judgement day.

There has been concern that supporters of the rival parties are likely to gather in great numbers in the capital and could cause trouble if they find the rulings disappointing.

From this afternoon, police will seal off the Constitution Tribunal building and search its compound to ensure no explosive devices have been planted, Police Lt-General Adisorn Nonsee, the Metropolitan Police commissioner, said.

He said the police would also secure nearby bridges tomorrow, when the tribunal is scheduled to read its verdicts on the separate cases against the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties, as well as three smaller political parties.

Police will work with military officers and city officials to prevent any violent incidents, Police General Vichien Pojphosri, a senior police commander in charge of security, said.

Hundreds of police officers will be stationed at Sanam Luang and the Royal Plaza, where Thai Rak Thai supporters are expected to gather, and at the headquarters of both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties.

Authorities have been on alert after receiving intelligence that party supporters from the provinces are travelling to the capital. However, the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties have dismissed reports that they are mobilising their supporters.

Thai Rak Thai's caretaker leader Chaturon Chaisang yesterday accused the junta of spreading rumours to paint a bad image of the "old power clique" of which the party was a part.

The use of a backup military force, comprising another 43 companies from Bangkok-based Army units, if needed, would be "decisive" and "lawful", Army commander General Sonthi said yesterday.

Sonthi said he gave direct orders during yesterday's meeting with unit commanders that all soldiers participating in all security operations "must be unarmed" and would not be positioned in areas involving direct confrontations with protesters.

The 13,000-strong force comprises soldiers from 29 companies, Bangkok-based policemen and municipal policemen. Its main duty is to guard against possible violent incidents between supporters of Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties, or anti-junta activists and the soldiers themselves.

Police will concentrate their efforts on curbing anti-junta movements that could be supported by taxi motorcyclists and taxi drivers.

A police intelligence report warned that the groups, referred to as "mobs in red shirts", might operate across the capital to create disorder if the verdicts dissolve any of the parties, or both.

Bangkok police chief Pol Lt-General Adisorn Nonsee said all 88 police stations had been observing the group's ongoing movements and their expected activities in the next few days.

Checkpoints will be set up on major city streets to intercept their vehicles or make arrests in case the group members showed signs of disobedience.

Elephants will also be barred from entering Bangkok at this time.

A bomb threat was received on telephone at the Thai Rak Thai Party's former headquarters on New Phetchaburi Road yesterday morning.

The caller said explosives would be set off but did not specify at which TRT office the attack would take place.

The official who received the call at 10am then telephoned the party's new headquarters at Navasorn Building on Rama 3 Road. Security officials and two sniffer dogs were called in to search the building but found nothing suspicious.

Meanwhile, Chaturon has called a meeting of party members to ensure there are no disturbances tomorrow when the Constitution Tribunal rules on the party's possible dissolution.

Chaturon is worried that if there is any disorder following the ruling, or if ill-intentioned people disguise themselves as Thai Rak Thai Party supporters and create disturbances, the Council for National Security may blame the party for any turmoil.

The party plans to send a few members to hear the verdict but Chaturon has instructed all other party members and supporters not to go to the tribunal but to hear the verdict at the party's headquarters.

TRT has also asked the police to deploy 200 officers at its headquarters tomorrow to maintain security.

--The Nation 2007-05-29

-----------------------------------------------

Areas where trouble could possibly erupt

- Sanam Luang: Tomorrow, when the Saturday People Against Dictatorship plans an anti-coup rally. Popular Jatukam Ramathep amulets will be given away to gatherers.

- The Royal Plaza: Thursday, when PTV plans a rally at a nearby location.

- Headquarters of the two main parties involved: the Democrats, off Rama VI Road, and Thai Rak Thai at the Navasorn Building on Rama III Road.

- Checkpoints will be set up at Pok Klao, Pin Klao and Krung Thon bridges and on all roads connecting to them. These bridges and certain sections of the roads will be closed if the protest becomes too large.

------------------------------------------------

Places to avoid

Areas with heavy police presence

- Within the Constitution Court compound on Chakra Phet Road, where only 500 people will be permitted inside.

- Around the compound, where 900 policemen and a back-up force comprising an unspecified number of soldiers and municipal police will be on duty. Only 3,000 supporters of both parties and onlookers will be allowed near the compound

Source: The Royal Thai Police

[george]

Update:

Foreigners warned ahead of Thai court ruling

BANGKOK: -- Foreigners in Bangkok were on Tuesday warned to exercise caution amid mounting security fears ahead of a landmark court decision over whether to dissolve Thailand's two largest political parties.

Australia, Canada, France and Japan all advised their citizens to show a high degree of personal security awareness as Wednesday's verdict could trigger violent demonstrations in the Thai capital.

"You should avoid demonstrations, political rallies and concentrations of military personnel," the Australian embassy in a statement.

The Japanese embassy called on its citizens to "stay away from expected political rallies" and "act very cautiously so as not to get involved in possible unrest and terror attacks."

Thailand is the fourth most popular foreign destination for Japanese tourists after the United States, China (including Hong Kong) and South Korea.

Some 900 police will be deployed on Bangkok's streets Tuesday evening, protecting the Constitutional Tribunal offices and setting up checkpoints to deter party supporters from travelling to the capital from the provinces.

Some 15,000 Thai troops were on alert Tuesday across the country to deter possible violence, officials said.

The Canadian embassy warned that planned protests might turn violent and urged its citizens to "maintain high level of personal security awareness" and avoid "unnecessary travel" in Bangkok.

The US embassy here has left its travel advice unchanged, urging tourists and expatriates to monitor events and avoid large public gatherings.

The British embassy's travel advice, which was updated on Wednesday last week, also urged its citizens to avoid demonstrations and large crowds.

On Wednesday, Thailand's Constitutional Tribunal must decide whether Thai Rak Thai, the party formed by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the Democrat Party are guilty of a slew of charges of electoral fraud related to annulled elections in April last year.

The tribunal has the power to dissolve the parties and ban their executives from politics for five years.

The potentially divisive ruling comes after more than a year of political upheaval culminating in the September 19 coup against Thaksin.

-- AFP 2007-05-29

CNS security plan can tackle 10,000

BANGKOK: -- The Council for National Security (CNS) yesterday unveiled a new security plan designed to control up to 10,000 protesters rallying against tomorrow's verdicts on the two electoral fraud cases against the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties.

"The plan, dubbed Pitak I, is aimed at pre-empting any protest-related violence," CNS spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnoed said.

The plan has already been activated and will remain in force until June 1 - or until all suspicious activities have ceased.

Soldiers from three branches of the armed forces and policemen will be mobilised to enforce crowd control measures, he said.

Under the plan, security authorities will strive to help people gain an understanding of the political situation, and monitor mass activities with the aim of discouraging the crowds from protesting against the verdicts. In the next step, authorities plan to set up road checks on all main roads linking Bangkok with the provinces in order to prevent villagers from descending on the capital.

Some 10,000 anti-riot forces have been on a high state of readiness within their barracks for immediate deployment should the situation arise.

If the crowds turn unruly, the CNS is fully prepared to declare a state of emergency before deploying anti-riot forces.

Sansern said the CNS would implement crowd control measures step by step ranging from a verbal warning to a crack down. Authorities will invoke harsh suppression as a last resort, he added.

He dismissed speculation that the CNS might mobilise its own crowds to counter the protests, saying authorities have no plans to incite people to clash with one another.

In today's Cabinet meeting, CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin is expected to brief ministers on the security plan.

Sonthi plans to dispatch military officers to reason with villagers and disgruntled farmers ahead of tomorrow's verdicts. The dispatched officers will focus on the North and the Northeast.

He is expected to personally supervise the plan and monitor all mass activities.

First Army Region commander Lt-General Prayuth Chan-ocha, has alerted all security officials in the capital to brace for possible disturbances caused by motorcycle taxi drivers.

The CNS is anticipating a highly volatile public mood should the Thai Rak Thai receive an unfavourable verdict.

As a precaution, it is braced for every possible scenario if the crowds turn unruly even though it has no hard evidence to suspect any plans to incite violence.

"Among the staunch Thai Rak Thai supporters are some 80,000 taxi drivers and about 100,000 motorcycle taxi drivers, there is no way to predict their reaction to the outcome of the judicial review," the CNS spokesman said.

He said authorities must be prepared for unforeseen circumstances even though a mere 200 taxi drivers might join the protests.

--The Nation 2007-05-29

[Scott]

13,000 troops sounds like overkill to me. I hope everything goes well tomorrow, but I think I'll stay close to home anyway.

[Neeranam]

Elephants will also be barred from entering Bangkok at this time.

Well, we'll be ok then!

[Ijustwannateach]

Well, I sure do feel safer now- surely there can be no problems if the police and army will be working together.

Elephants will also be barred from entering Bangkok at this time.

What IS it with the legal action against elephants?

[sriracha john]

Mass rally planned at Sanam Luang on Judgement Day

Sudchai Boonchai, a leading member of the Saturday People Against Dictatorship said his group and 12 ally groups would hold the rally at Sanam Luang that day despite pleas from many for all sides to remain calm following concern of His Majesty the King's over possible political crisis.

Sudchai said if the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties are dissolved by the rulings, a political upheaval would definitely take place as the party's supporters would not accept the rulings.

"If the parties are dissolved and their executives are not allowed to form new parties, disturbances will take place and the situation will be uncontrollable," Sudchai said.

He said even if only the party leaders and certain executives and banned from politics, their supporters would not accept it and would definitely cause trouble.

- The Nation

=========================

Sounds like the Thai Rak Thai group, PTV, will have company for their planned rally.

Rule of law must prevail

The actions by the people will literally speak louder than words this week, and that is saying a lot. Tomorrow, the nine members of the Constitution Tribunal are to read momentous words. But it is what the rest of the country does for the next few days that is truly important. The choice is obvious and stark. People will seek confrontation that probably will lead to violence, or they will accept a decision reached by nine serious jurists. The only possible resolution to the lawsuit over political parties is through peaceful, legal means. Violence will definitely be self-destructive. Even if there is a time for political violence, this is not it. Look at those who have threatened violence if the Constitution Tribunal rules against them tomorrow. Their anger, even before the ruling, is only because they may lose the case, and thus their precious political positions and power. In a word, they are selfish.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/29May2007_news20.php

[sedaeng]

What IS it with the legal action against elephants?

ever see an elephant knock over trees and such in the wild? I think they could do more damage then a tank could loose in the city...

I just think they are afraid, with the wrong person controlling one of them, that real damage could be done before the animal could get dropped

Edited May 29, 2007 by sedaeng

[p1p]

I have received warnings from my security sources to keep my head extremely low for the next three days, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I sugest others do the same.

These warnings cover not only Bangkok, but also Chiang Mai and other places.

Keep your head down.

[HKDon]

Do we know what time tomorrow the ruling/judgment is supposed to be made?

[george]

Do we know what time tomorrow the ruling/judgment is supposed to be made?

1pm

[boes]

IMO they are really asking for trouble with this kind of power demonstration...

[epicstuff]

A bit of an unfair battle field the goverment can use Tanks but the revolution cant even bring an elephant into the war.

How is the peoples upriseing ever going to happen?

Power to the people

[Rhys]

Unarmed troops to protect and defend those hot areas.. hmmm.. I get they might used bad words.. Shades of yesterday.. Stay in .. a VCD day..

Cheers Mates

[blue eyes]

Just at the same time that the wife was headed to Bangkok to renew her passport

[raro]

What IS it with the legal action against elephants?

they'll be painted in pink and have to wear oversized glasses. Upside for the elephant: They become an object of worship.

[epicstuff]

There so many complainers and critics on thai visa forums , maybe we could get an army toghether and help overthrow the goverment.

come on boys!!

[Farma]

With Thursday being a public holiday it could be good or bad. People will have time to mull over tomorrows decisions then decide whether stay at home or go out and demonstrate.

Edited May 29, 2007 by Farma

[danone]

it will be quiet, no worries. thais are more mature than those hot heads want us to believe.

its all political, long term residents here should understand that by now and not always take what they hear as a given fact.

[mumbu]

Thailand Braces for Court Ruling, Further Political Unrest

BANGKOK: -- The Thai government's effort to destroy the political power of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may push the country into a new era of political instability.

Nine judges appointed by the military-backed government will rule tomorrow on whether Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai and four other parties should be dissolved for violating election laws last year, and may bar about 160 politicians from elections for five years.

That could spark mass protests against the government, whose policies such as capital controls and tighter foreign ownership laws have eroded the hopes of investors and Thaksin opponents who initially welcomed the coup of last September. It would also make a return to democracy, with elections promised for December, difficult.

``The decision on the possible dissolution of the two main political parties, whichever way it goes, has the potential to destabilize the country,'' said Francesca Lawe-Davies, a Southeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group.

On the other hand, a verdict clearing Thai Rak Thai and the opposition Democrat Party, which deny breaking election laws in an April 2006 snap poll, could also cause problems for the junta.

``If the court acquits the parties, particularly Thai Rak Thai, it would erode the justification of the coup, further weakening the position of the interim government,'' she said.

Since seizing power, Thailand's junta has accused Thaksin of corruption and abuse of power, has sought to prevent his return to the country, and admitted its fear of his party's popular support.

Main Concern

Thaksin's comeback ``is our main concern,'' junta Secretary-General General Winai Phattiyakul said Sept. 29, adding that a ruling against his party ``may be one of the measures to prevent the return of the huge popular vote for Thai Rak Thai.''

Junta-appointed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont cut short an official visit to China this week to return to Bangkok after King Bhumibol Adulyadej made a rare public warning last week that ``any ruling will create trouble and damage.''

His government has threatened to declare a state of emergency in the city if public protests follow tomorrow's verdicts, which are expected to be read out after midday Thai local time.

``It is the biggest concern for every businessman including me. Everybody is watching this court decision,'' TMB Bank Pcl President Subhak Siwaraksa said yesterday. ``It will be a great relief if the court decision comes out in a compromising way for everybody. But it will be worrisome if the decision creates new confrontation in the country.''

Promising Calm

Leaders of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat party have called on their supporters to stay calm.

``We urge them, whatever the outcome, to respect the decision,'' Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said. ``It's clear that the majority of Thai people want to see stability.''

An eruption of political violence ``would certainly call into question the election date,'' said Abhisit, leader of Thailand's oldest political party. If the court dissolved the parties, the December elections would be meaningless, he said.

``A verdict that would put 160 leading politicians out of the picture makes it very difficult to imagine what kind of meaning the elections would have for the people,'' he said.

The Democrats boycotted last year's election, and are accused of preventing parties from contesting. Thai Rak Thai party members are accused of paying the other smaller political parties to run in that election.

Billionaire businessman Thaksin, who won landslide election victories in 2001 and again in 2005, is in exile in London and has denied all the charges against him, and said that his political career is over.

-- Bloomberg 2007-05-29

[jaapfries]

Well, I sure do feel safer now- surely there can be no problems if the police and army will be working together.

Elephants will also be barred from entering Bangkok at this time.

What IS it with the legal action against elephants?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C'mon; can't you guy figure that one out ???? Okay; I'll tell you then; it's really simple: By keeping Elephants out of Bangkok tomorrow, we will know for sure that the avarage IQ in town will be of an extraordinarilly LOW level, hence possibly less trouble . . . . . . . .

Incidentally; I read also that these 13,000 soldiers will safeguard the security of the capital, whilst being UN-ARMED ?!?!?!?

In this case, we better hope that the instigators-of-trouble are also (nobly) without violence ! ! !

Te blind leading the blind: the story of Siam !

[surinmike]

well up Surin way it will just be another day at the office 476kms away may as well be 47600 kms away just watch the rice grow....

[Tattoo180sx]

IMO they are really asking for trouble with this kind of power demonstration...

i agree, and they aren't exactly in a position to afford trouble

[jeebusjones]

I think this is being blown way out of proportion. The Thai people I've spoken to aren't worried about it at all. They think nothing will happen.

[steppenfaerie]

I remember that the threat of violence was always imminent when the first few mass PAD demonstrations took place. Thankfully, it never materialised. Am hoping that the same will happen here, although the political situation has deteriorated considerably since then, so the chances of that happening are much less. But let's hope all the same.

[sriracha john]

Judges must make no compromises on 'Judgement Day'

His Majesty the King's televised remarks to judges of the Supreme Administrative Court last week essentially drove home the political fragility that the country faces.

Not since the verdict was pending in the assets concealment case against then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has the country been in such a state of political suspense.

It shouldn't come as any surprise if some overly concerned families are beginning to stock up on food or if panicky investors are offloading shares in their portfolios ahead of the so-called "Judgement Day" tomorrow. For these people, signs of trouble are too obvious to ignore.

Despite all the assurances from the government and the military to the contrary, the spectre of street violence hanging over the ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal on the fate of the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties cannot be underestimated.

Intelligence reports have all pointed to the possibility of coordinated agitation by Thaksin's supporters, who want nothing short of a total vindication for the former prime minister and his party.

Thaksin may be in exile thousands of miles away, but there is no denying what the political machine he left behind is capable of doing at the snap of his fingers.

Thaksin definitely has not been funnelling in huge amounts of money to remnants of his Thai Rak Thai Party and its grassroots network for charitable purposes.

The former leader has too much at stake both in terms of his wealth and his political survival to watch events unfold from afar without trying to interfere.

Thaksin made it clear in his recent interview with a community radio station with avowed loyalty to the former prime minister that he was not going to give up without a fight.

Of course, despite all the bitter feelings he generated under his five-year authoritarian rule, the businessman-turned-politician had no regrets to offer.

It's no surprise then that he chooses to see all the charges of abuse of power and conflicts of interest made against him and his family as nothing more than political retribution.

And he has fervently urged his supporters back home to see it that way too.

While the potential of political backlash shouldn't in any way influence the verdict of the nine judges on the Constitution Tribunal, His Majesty has, nevertheless, reminded the panel to be mindful of its consequences. There is a general consensus that whatever ruling is handed down by the Constitution Tribunal, it will have a far-reaching impact on this country's political future.

The worst-case scenario is that both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties are dissolved and all party executives banned from politics for five years in accordance with Decree No 27 introduced by the Council for National Security (CNS) in the aftermath of the September 19 coup. Not only would the whole lot of political veterans who were instrumental in shaping Thailand's politics for the past several years be denied any political role, but it would also set the stage for potential street violence.

It's an open secret that some generals in the CNS are praying for exactly that to happen. In one stroke, they would be able to get rid of Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai Party once and for all and at the same time assure the military a dominant role in the subsequent political realignment. In other words, political fragmentation would allow the military to hold sway over future politics.

There have been talks lately about a possible compromise whereby selective punishment would be meted out to the leaders of the two parties. Only those directly implicated would be targeted. While a handful of party executives (most likely the party's leaders, secretaries-general and a few others) would be banned from politics, those who survive could immediately found and register new parties for the promised election.

Though this proposed compromise would be less painful and shocking than a wholesale purge of the two parties, there is no guarantee that it would end the ongoing agitation efforts by Thaksin supporters.

There is also a big question mark as to whether the Constitution Tribunal can be selective in its judgement and whether its ruling should be influenced by political considerations.

Despite all the threats of violence and the unpalatable political consequences, there is the rule of law that needs to be upheld. His Majesty's caution that whatever the ruling there would be damaging fallout shouldn't in any way be interpreted as a hint toward compromise. His emphasis on "correctness" should also not be lost on anyone.

More often than not, Thailand has seen the rule of law bent to accommodate political expediency. We have tended to tackle problems or deal with crises the "Thai way" and have lost the opportunity to set legal or political benchmarks that would help us become better prepared for new challenges.

The nine judges of the Constitution Tribunal have Thailand's political future in their hands. And this definitely is no time for political expediency or compromise. Whatever their verdict is, it must be based on facts. At this very crucial political junction, we have no other choice but to the let the rule of law prevail.

- Thepchai Yong, The Nation Hard Talk

[thaigene2]

IMO they are really asking for trouble with this kind of power demonstration...

Yessir - they sure are. On purpose? I wonder..

If one really wanted to avoid trouble, wouldn't it be better to downplay the whole thing in advance? Why telegraph everything by bullhorn? I'm sure some will say 'because they wan to scare everyone away from protesting..' But like I said above, I wonder..

[Robbie Dye]

Do we know what time tomorrow the ruling/judgment is supposed to be made?

1pm

I hope my caddy tomorrow is not politically motivated as I tee off at 1 pm! Seriously though I think we are in for some rough weather as it were and with the 31st being a big Buddha holiday and most people not working there will be ample opportunity for those of evil disposition to get up to some mischief. i totally agree, keep our heads down. The rest of the world will be watching too. I do not think that elephants pose too big a threat here in Pattaya.

[Bruce1]

Don't most of the elephant trainers come from areas where TRT is popular?

Hopefully, nothing will happen and the rule of law will prevail. If people turn to force, then I expect we can forget any idea of elections in December, as the crackdown will be severe.

I don't know whether it would be better for them to dissolve both parties or neither of them. Which would outrage people the most? Dissolving both could cause a widespread eruption against the military junta. Dissolving neither could make the junta's coup look unjustified.

What signals was HM really sending the other day?

I can't figure it out.

From what I've read the cases against the parties seem rather thin. Its all apparently unsubstantiated accusations. But it's so hard to know anything for sure...

[cclub75]

I remember that the threat of violence was always imminent when the first few mass PAD demonstrations took place. Thankfully, it never materialised.

You're right.

How many times the authorities, before and after the coup, warned the people of possible violence ?

Actually, we could say that it's a constant.

I mean even when a group of monks stages a small rallye, the authorities are concerned, or look concerned.

It's like they are besieged, and afraid of their own shadow.

The recents, and still unexplained, bombings in BKK plus the daily violence in the south, contribute to this climate of fear.

At this point, we can wonder : is it genuine, or is it done on purpose ?

My guess : the real violence and the fear of possible violence is a part of the legitimity of the generals... It serves them well.

After all, what could be the best way to stay in power ? Small scale violence, plus the south, plus the constant -designed- fear. It's the perfect cocktail.

And some of them have already warned people : no elections if there is "unrest"...

[richard10365]

I think they should catch everyone off guard and post pone the ruling for a month or so. This would defuse the current situation and allow the matter to be looked at a little more carefully. Planned protest would be cancelled because there would be nothing to protest about.